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I'm not going to try to attach a narrative to this data.
I'll just observe that the employment situation is abysmal. Households are consolidating. As far as I can tell, there's a lot of trucking going on completely divorced from consumer demand (probably just there to goose balance sheets and impress analysts).
The oil market is heavily politicized. I have strong suspicions that no one really knows the extent of oil reserves. This is coming from someone who began reading the Oil Drum in 2005, read all of Matthew Simmons' work, and has performed some minor work (on the marketing side) in the industry.
This is a gut call, but I think that as we see with NATO, North Korea/South Korea, and elsewhere, it's becoming clear that the US is unable to uphold its military treaties.
From a straight reading of NATO, the US is obligated to intervene in Greece. According to the various treaties relating to Korea, the US is also obligated to defend that country.
That won't fly politically. No administration would be able to pull off that intense of a propaganda campaign. They'd be insane to attempt it.
KSA won't overtly break the petrodollar. To do so would invite an internal overthrow of the regime. So, I guess we can continue to enjoy cheap gasoline for a little while...
There's always been an element of fractional-reserve security about the US' post-WWII treaty commitments. I don't think US is as near to open default as all that. (Remember that, for example, there are US troops on the frontline in South Korea precisely to manage the political risk you mention.) But there is certainly a chance of quiet retreat in for example the ME which could have unpleasant consequences.
Sure, they don't have to default, but sooner or later, the barbarians will over-run Washington. The United Kingdom has already essentially acknowledged insolvency.
The barbarians have already made their intentions clear. What was it... cutting some Congressman's gas-line?
I have trouble understanding how the people in charge can remain so deluded about their actual position.
They have to acknowledge the default to forestall total madness. I'm sure that the military can figure out how to get out on their own. Plenty of clever guys working in that neck of the woods.
I remain giddily optimistic about the US, by ZH standards. But I don't deny that over some timescale, the US' only acceptable exit strategy is to try to pass the baton relatively smoothly to others, notably India. The alternatives of simple retreat and disastrous overstretch both really suck, for almost everyone. The steeper the US' relative decline, the shorter and uglier the landing.
From a straight reading of NATO, the US is obligated to intervene in Greece. According to the various treaties relating to Korea, the US is also obligated to defend that country.
That won't fly politically. No administration would be able to pull off that intense of a propaganda campaign. They'd be insane to attempt it.
Don't underestimate....politically determined,,oligarchs..
Conversation should be like juggling, balls and plates up and down, in and out, glittering in the footlights,,but when you speak, it's like small bubbles drifting from an old clay pipe, full of rainbow light for a second, and then,, poof....vanished,,, with nothing left at all,,,nothing...You agitate well however..Thanks
I'm glad I excite you.
But I have to disagree. Once the natives become restless, the politicos will crumple. You can see it in some of these desperate speech-making maneuvers.
I know the "leaders" on an intimate basis. My Kevin Bacon chart gives me goosebumps sometimes. I'm un-intimidated by them now. The history books can make men seem more confident and powerful than they really are.
They're just people. Animate meat. And they're clearly afraid. They've pushed too far, this time. I can't say what comes next, but the old ways are done for.
You know, when a revolution starts to come, and everyone smells it, there's a rush to change clothing, to forestall the killers. If the reds are hunting the whites, you dress like a red... if the whites are winning, you dress like a white...
I've known emotionally and intellectually that it was all going to fall down 10 years ago - even before 9/11. I had the benefit of inside information, but even so, it feels validating to be here at the end.
Morale is everything.
You agitate well however..Thanks
Sarcasm,, on,,>>>>
I'm glad I excite you. You jest....
The Ayn Rand state will never congeal...
"I am not primarily an advocate of capitalism, but of egoism; and I am not primarily an advocate of egoism, but of reason. If one recognizes the supremacy of reason and applies it consistently, all the rest follows."
In this current state?? We have more in common than you think...
Euro under attack again, intervention pushed it back over 1.2150, desperation to keep it above collapse mode.
Ignore all of this. Wash, Rinse, Repeat after me this is BS. Oh and I am short eur/jpy again and expect to feel like early am OJ, Freshly Squeezed at some point tonight.
Oil price now is in line with expectation, mission accomplished.
oil price doesn't mean a damn thing because it is still not seen at the pump and may not be anytime soon. Why? Wholesale fuel has yet to come down.
Why? They expect big demand coming.
They could be in for a very big surprise and demand is a reflection of price.
NO REDUCTION IN PRICE. NO DEMAND.
Watch for people on bikes. It is coming. No gas, no insurance, no car payment.