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Daily Oil Market Summary: May 3
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"Fresh signs that the global recovery is taking a firm root"
LOL, Harry Wanger strikes again!
"Fresh signs that the global recovery is taking a firm root"
I used to laugh and shake my head at such statements. Now I just laugh...
*sigh*
This just drove a stake through the heart of opening up any new exploration areas.
Its going to be amusing to me to watch the wailing and gnashing of teeth as as gasoline pushes through $3 on its way to four. That should do wonders for consumer spending. Of course none of this will have the slightest effect on the S&P. Until it does.
Noah, I think your comment re new exploration is dead on.
How unfortunate that this catastrophe occurred just when it looked like even Obama was catching on to the need for energy supply security.
My guess, FWIW, is for $4.00 gasoline as well. And other BAD problems as discussed everywhere here at ZH.
Yeah, I too look forward to when this strange bull market in stocks screeches to a halt.
Push through $3?
$3.34 in Roslyn, Long Island NY as of Friday
$3.83 for Full Service
Both Regular Gas.
$4.50 gas by the end of summer and they will blame it on the Gulf clean up.
Unfortunately, this spill is headed to be a true catastrophe. The actual amount of oil being released is astronomical in proportion to previous events. I only hope the containment methods work (steel boxs). I am short BP, but no amount of money can replace what is being lost. Truly a shame. The future of off shore and likely BP is in the balance and the outcome looks grim. The deep connections are truly hazardous as we are seeing. What a mess!
Long NLC shot BP
Looks like the blowout preventer worked but the seals are leaking under the pressure... which explains why we are only seeing 5,ooo to 25,ooo bbls/day so far with pressures at an insane 70,ooo+ PSI.
If this puppy lets loose it could go as high as 160,ooo to 300,ooo bbls per day. With that potential this well is a freaking gold mine if brought under control... if not the price of a tuna melt is going to go through the roof!
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0323071520100503?type=marketsNews
My advice is watch your shorts and pray for the worst!
I am long sushi right now!
That was great info ZerO, thx for the comment on the BOP and the seals.
Even though, decades ago, I did some hitches offshore, I had no idea (until this catastrophe) that the pressures were so high.
I hope we have some good mechanical & petroleum engineers still left here who can design and produce better offshore oil equipment.
And while I am trying to figure out what is going on (and what is out there), if what I seem to be picking up on is that there are HUGE deposits offshore. What terrible timing for a calamity like this for our energy security.
seals leaking...that ain't it. The asses left the drilling bit in the hole, and so the valve can't close! Where was OSHA, where was Mine Safety Administration and all the rest of the "government supervisors" with their check lists?
What all of you are missing is the econimic fallout that will come from all the hurt and failed industries all along the Gulf and (God forbit) up the sea coast to the Chesapeake Bay and beyond. This is no tanker, this is a continous flow.
How quick we all forget the effects that Hurricane Katrina had on the general economy (never mind what it did to the South). Katrina will be remembered as a pin prick by the time this is over...
Blindfaith doesn't work anymore.
$4.00 oil? To go where when the economy dives deeper into the abiss and the government and media run out of 'happy tails' to broadcast.
"The asses left the drilling bit in the hole, and so the valve can't close!"
Blindfaith... do you have a source on that? Ususally if there is a high pressure blowout the drill is shot out like a rocket! (lot's of videos of that happening btw...) Also wasn't Haliburton just finished pumping crete through that borehole?
The cloud in the sky in today's trading came when BP announced they were moving forward in preparations to attempt placing a containment dome at the wellhead, perhaps within a week. There was a failed attempt to place a shutoff valve at the site of one leak, however. If weather improves there may be another attempt.
Otherwise, I'd keep clear of HAL for now. They may end up being the goat considering they "completed work" cementing the well a mere 20 hours before the blowout. Their cementing failed in another blowout case in the East Timor Sea in 2005. Congress has subpoenaed their records.
Isn't this the same thing Monte Burns tried to do in the Simpsons Movie? LOL.
Ahh. Another piece of excellent info I have picked up from you guys.
If HAL screwed up the cementing job, then maybe Cameron's BOP (and related seals) are not at fault.
We will need some time to see what really happened.
What concerns me is the massive pressure of this oil field. It blew through all of their safety valves - and is now showing its strength by jet streaming out more oil than "the officials" care to admit.
I sure hope they can cap it.....
The estimates fluctuate between 175K and 250K gallons/day. What's different is that at 5,000 ft depth the oil is compressed by pressure and cold temperature. As it rises it expands even further.
They're trying to make the placement of the dome sound routine when in fact this was the world's deepest functioning well. Lots of unpredictables on the seabed.
Also with 3 known leaking sites there could well be more once enough back pressure builds as in the case of the Santa Monica offshore leak in 1969 where a fissure developed.
Thanks! Great info.
I had a fishtank once that was almost 1,000 gallons. 175 or 250 of those? LOL
I would bet anyone this gusher is much more than 1,000,000 and closer to 5,000,000 gallons over a 24 hour non-stop "day".
With reports that the hole is 18,000 feet deep (I'm not clear on whether this includes the 5000 feet of water above the well head on the ocean floor or not) the temperature of the oil at that depth is much higher than a typical 5000' deep well (100 deg. F) - at 1 degree F per 100 feet of depth, it will be 280 degrees - plus the increased pressure of the water (2200psi) on the seabed will add heat. So, this new hot, deep oil is already partially refined... there is a lot more gas pressure to deal with when tapping deep reserves since it has been "cooking off" down there for a long time. Lots of natural gas liquids in relation to regular crude, too. Volatile stuff.
If off-shore drilling is taken away from Repubs, O will have less political capital to push thru Cap 'n' Trade, which in my view is the ultimate scam sought by the banksters.
Meanwhile, gas hit $3/ gallon in my area, and I noticed it was $3.40ish during a recent visit to downtown Chicago.
Yup. And the official numbers say "no inflation" :) It's boom time in North Dakota.
$3.05 breached in WI.
Nah... most of the really great shoreline properties are owned by Republicans anyway.
If Obama only enforces the $75 million damages limit that is on the books I say he has a better than 50/50 chance of landing a giant BP advertising sponsership for the 2012 elections!
Spill baby Spill!
I never expected any NEW offshore drilling anyway...talk.
Just this weekend, another oil reserve in ND, almost same size as Bakken discovered.
Any bet's on how, and when that WILL BE TAPPED?.
+1000
I always thought it was more likely for Obama to made Dear Leader for Life before there was any offshore drilling (or much onshore for that matter).
Peak oil, smeak oil. It is only peak oil if we want it to be (in the near future). Time now to research alternative energy while developing oil wells, oil sands, oil shale, NG, shale NG, and nuclear. Current alternative energy (solar, wind, geo-thermal) is a joke on a large scale. However, small scale research is needed in a wide variety of energy sources (algae oil, wave power, geo-thermal, solar, etc.) so they will ready when oil and NG get scarce.
Invisible.
You are very close, much closer to the truth than you realize.
Watch what happens prior to the Nov elections...........
Sorry off topic,. but I spoke about this on a post last week.......
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKN0318959620100503
Hey DosZap I don't understand how you guys can be so cynical about everything except for your own understanding. Why do you think you have a special understanding of how things work that invisible can only be close to and not even realise?
Agreed. Congress won't listen to T. Boone Pickens and he is wearing out his welcome on CNBC. Even Jim Cramer is tired of his "propellers to prosperity plan".
Soooo........ he did it!!! I'm long submarines.
The following comments were lifted from an article by Paul Noel
for Pure Energy Systems News:
"The rig that was drilling was not a US Flagged rig. That means US Inspectors were not allowed on board the rig to inspect it. As a matter of National Security under the GATT the USA has a right to demand US Only in various technology. The USA should never allow a foreign flag vessel to drill for oil in the US Economic Zone (200 mile limit)..."
I realize the implications of this event are not only ecologically / environmentally and economically tragic, but this angle of who dropped the ball from a National Security standpoint should be investigated to the nth degree and those found responsible for their (in)action dealt with appropriately. imo.
On the tipping point....
Could the spill push the plateau into decline? Waiting....
I always put a plug in for this article about Thorium for use in nuclear power, simply because its a much ignored energy metal:
http://pubs.acs.org/cen/email/html/8746sci2.html
I am always glad when you do.
Thorium does sound fascinating, especially the half-life qualities and abundance.
Now if we could only reduce our leaders intake of Stupidium we might actually get somewhere!
LOL, it appears there is an infinite supply of stupidium ZerOhead, so maybe we should figure out how to fuse it or split it for a truly infinite energy source!
And worse, it seems to have a very long half-life.
I am no expert, but I too have read good things about thorium as nuclear fuel. I hope TPTB are looking into it...
Naah, probably not.
Because of this spill, the country with one of the highest amounts of undeveloped, unproven, reserves will now be sure to let most of it go to waste. Thanks BP. Dorks.
Yeah, those Brits could fuck up a wet dream.
NOAA SATCOM:
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/05/noaa-satcom-0900-gmt.html
lets understand when you restrict drilling to deep water the risks go up..areas that are much safer to drill(on shore and shallow water) are placed off limits .. eco nuts bear responsiblity as they push drilling into deep water far off shore.
Currently, SP500 futures indicate that the March 2009 bear market rally may be ending. We should get confirmation this week.
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