The Daily Propaganda Is Just Getting Painful
Bloomberg headline: "Capital Goods Orders in U.S. Climb, Signaling Investment Pickup"
Goldman Sachs: "Durable Goods Orders - Weaker than Expected"
Someone should explain to these people that propaganda is far more effective when everyone on the wrong team knows they have to lie.
From Tim Homan's Bloomberg "independent report":
Orders and shipments for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft climbed in June, signaling investment by U.S. businesses picked up heading into the second half of the year. Such bookings increased 0.6 percent after jumping 4.6 percent in May, more than previously reported, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Total orders for durable goods, those meant to last at least three years, unexpectedly dropped 1 percent, depressed by a decrease in demand for aircraft which is often volatile.
From Goldman Sachs:
USA: Durable Goods Orders - Weaker than Expected
Actual: -1.0% mom, +15.9% yoy
Previous: -0.8% mom
Released: Wednesday, July 28, 2010 at 08:30 (New York time)
Weaker than Expected
BOTTOM LINE: Contrary to expectations, new orders for durable goods fall in June; orders for nondefense capital goods ex aircraft rise only modestly.
US-MAP: Durable goods orders -8 (4, -2).
Durable goods orders -1.0% in June (mom, +15.9% yoy) vs. GS flat, median forecast +1.0%.
1. While the median forecast had looked for an increase, headline durable goods orders declined by 1% in June. (Orders in May were revised down slightly from -0.6% to -0.8%.) Orders ex transportation and ex defense both fall in June (by 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively). Increases in orders for electrical equipment (+3.7%) and fabricated metals (+1.2%) were more than outweighed by declines elsewhere, including transportation (-2.4%), primary metals (-2.0%) and computers & electronics (-1.9%). Orders for nondefense capital goods ex aircraft edged up 0.6%.
2. Shipments of nondefense capital goods rose by 1% (and by 0.2% excluding aircraft). Inventories continued to rise (up 0.9% on the month) and have now risen in five consecutive months by an average of 0.8%. On balance, our first impression is that the data have no major implication for our estimate the real GDP rose 2.0% at an annual rate last quarter; this figure will be released Friday morning along with annual revisions.