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Daily UK and Europe Highlights - 10 August 2009

Raymond Shaw's picture




 

Monday morning, yes, we've all been there.  I am back folks with my
annoying daily briefings that keep reminding you of the smoke-worthy
green herbs that are growing in the UK and European economies.  Data
cupboard is full this week with numbers coming from across the Eurozone
and UK.

Key UK economic reports to prepare for this week should be the mirage
known as Claimant Counts, BOE Inflation Report and UK Trade Balance
figure.  An article out by The Independent should provide a good overview of the UK Claimant Count (Joblessness) figure, which is out on Wednesday.

Quick update on today morning Japanese economic data - private sector
Machinery Orders figure came out today at 9.7% against a forecast of
2.8%.  Bank lending figures contracted and came in at 2.1% from
previously report 2.4%.  Current account figure came at a better 1.80T
Yen against last month print of 1.02T Yen.  M2 Money Stock YoY print
expanded at 2.7% which is same as the June figure (July print came in
at 2.5%).

In a worrying development of the people's personal freedom, the Telegraph reported that the UK government departments are seeking access
to people's private telephone and email records every 60 seconds,
statistically speaking.  From a security perspective I am not against
this, however I do believe that the system is most likely rife with
misuse.

Finally, before you choose a fund manager, make sure to give the South Korean parrot a call,
she will probably offer better investment advise than chasing betas; or
the beautiful virgin tarot card lady from Live or Let Die.

  • Must read: IMF puts total cost of crisis at 7.1 trillion Sterling (11.9 trn US) (Telegraph)
  • Must read: Britain risks a Japan-style lost decade, BoE to warn (Telegraph)
  • Must read: QE2 - Does the Bank of England know something that rest of us don't? (The Independent)
  • Must read: Taxpayer-owned banks repossess thousands of homes (Guardian)
  • Must read: China’s Property Sales Surge 60% From Year Earlier (Bloomberg)
  • Must read: No green shoot here - Baltic Dry Index has worst week since October meltdown as Chinese demand slows (Telegraph, FT)
  • Barclays yields to pressure over final-salary pension scheme changes - going to pump 500m Stg. (Guardian)
  • Barclays, Centrica, Lloyds, Prudential, Rio: U.K., Irish Equity Preview (Bloomberg)
  • RBS boss Stephen Hester defends bonuses - keep the bullshit coming mate (Guardian)
  • Chinese website slams Rio Tinto 'espionage’, cost industry $100 bln (Telegraph, FT)
  • UK Conservatives deny reported plans to raise VAT (CNBC)
  • Lloyds considers capital raising to cut cost of asset protection scheme (APS) (Telegraph, Reuters)
  • Revealed: How Army's new armoured vehicle is a death trap too (The Independent)
  • Helmand farmers to be offered millions to stop growing poppies (The Independent)
  • Slightly older - Brown 'buried' report showing £2.5bn wasted on defence (The Independent)
  • Small businesses find credit scarce and dear (The Independent, Bloomberg)
  • Must read: Aluminium riding high on futures dealing (FT)
  • Must read: UK sees record number of insolvencies - more to come due to rising unemployment (FT)
  • Talking their book - Scottish Widows Investment Partners (SWIP) predicts FTSE at 5000 next year (Telegraph)
  • Dollar retains gains on jobs boost, but dips vs Yen (Guardian)
  • Resolution Offers 1.86 Billion Pounds for Friends (Bloomberg)
  • Swiss Takeover Premiums Draw Fire From Lawmakers, Short-Changed Investors (Bloomberg)
  • Euro's Failing to Heed Goldman Sachs Doesn't Mean Dollar Is in Decline (Bloomberg)
  • Russian Central Bank Currency Approach Is `Historic Change,' Goldman Says (Bloomberg)
  • Corn, Wheat Futures Gain on Russia, Ukraine Dry-Weather Output Concerns (Bloomberg)
  • Poland's Economy Expanded Annual 0.5%-1% in the Second Quarter, Boni Says (Bloomberg)
  • Slovak Real Industrial Wages Extend Drop in June as Recession Kills Jobs (Bloomberg)
  • Czech July Inflation Rate Falls to 0.3%, Lowest Level Since September 2003 (Bloomberg)
  • Romania's Trade Deficit Narrows to Smallest Gap in Three Months in June (Bloomberg)
  • Must read: Turkey's Mysterious Inflows of Currency Defy Explanation From Central Bank (Bloomberg)
  • Gagfah Reports Second-Quarter Net Loss as German Apartments Fall in Value (Bloomberg)
  • Corporate Bond Risk Declines in Europe, Credit-Default Swap Prices Show (Bloomberg)
  • RHJ Still Has a `Good Chance' of Winning Opel, Fischer Tells Handelsblatt (Bloomberg)
  • Must read: Pequot Trading in Google, Cox, Premcor Triggered Watchdog Warnings to SEC (Bloomberg)
  • Sugar Rallying 40% in Options Pointing to 1981 Price Peak on Crop Failures (Bloomberg)
  • ECB says EUR 95mln borrowed using o/n loan facility, EUR 222.024bln deposited
  • ECB says Eurosystem covered bond purchase program totals EUR 5.555bln
  • North Sea Brent crude oil loading programme set at 123,000 BPD in September - Trade

Economic Calendar:

  • Bank of France Business Sentiment 87 vs. Exp. 86 (Prev. 41)
  • French Manufacturing Production (Jun) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 2.4%)
  • French Industrial Production (Jun) M/M 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 2.6%, Rev. 2.8%)
  • Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (Aug) M/M -17.0 vs. Exp. -25.8 (Prev. -31.3)
  • Czech Republic CPI inflation eases to 0.3% y/y in July
  • PM aide Boni puts Q2 GDP growth at 0.5% - 1.0%
  • Bulgarian registered unemployment rate reaches 7.62% in July
  • Romanian international trade deficit narrows to 668 mln euros from 2.1 bln euros last June
  • Slovak economic data found in the section above, Bloomie link.

Interesting articles from other Blogs, this morning:

  • Must read: Van der Moolen, HFT's loss - FOR DESKING (FT Alphaville)
  • Overdraft fees hand US banks a cool $38 bln - from overstretched borrowers at that... (FT Alphaville)
  • Bischoff plans Lloyds fundraising - punter-in-chief wants to raise 15 bln Stg from markets (FT Alphaville)
  • Gazprom in Serbia: How's that working out? (Fistful of Euros)
  • Insanity is when ... - interesting musings about the British (European Tribune)

Make sure you to watch the RAN Squawk 'EU Morning Briefing' video and visit the RAN Squawk News page.

 

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Mon, 08/10/2009 - 11:40 | 31492 rigger mortice
rigger mortice's picture

nice to see you back raymond.

Tue, 08/11/2009 - 06:24 | 32609 Raymond Shaw
Raymond Shaw's picture

Thanks Rigger Mortice.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 09:08 | 31412 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yes I am not surprised the UK wants to poke its nose into more of people's business and privacy. This is THE most spied on country in the world with more CCTVs than anywhere else in the world!
And the UK govenment and various departments LOST a lot of very important personal data many times in the last year or so.
They can't be trusted with the information they have and they want access to more?
It seems like one rule for the rich and another for the poor here.
Catch ordinary people for slight infringements of the law which generally happen though mistake of lack of awareness of yet another new law they didn't know about.

I was driving in a town the other day and was accelerating but didn't change up gear so the car sound like it was going faster than it was of course, I was not going over the speed limit at all and there were no pedestrians or cars in front of me. A police car that was parked on the other side of the road signalled at me and said to slow down! (he did NOT say I was speeding)

I was NOT speeding or swerving around the road... so now I am not allowed to drive within the speed limit without police dictating to me!!!!

If I was a banksters I would have had a police escort and been able to go as fast as I wanted and have lots of free money and a huge pension

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 09:01 | 31409 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

booo bonuses booo

let's get guarries (aka fixed salaries) going instead :-)

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 08:44 | 31402 Eduardo
Eduardo's picture

In the meantime the Italian stock market is making a weird display of personality and ... it has been UP all morning !

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 08:40 | 31401 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Shanghai, Beijing and the rest of the big China cities are in a Tokyo-style real-estate bubble, and it is not going to end well, especially if ChiGov doesn't boost up domestic demand. At the moment China is a big betting house for hedge funds; and i, somewhat, suspect that a lot of big players are shorting those MBS waiting for the bubble to pop. Thanks for the news Raymond and nice to see you back.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 09:16 | 31415 Raymond Shaw
Raymond Shaw's picture

Thank you sir.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 09:01 | 31408 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'm short on China! It's pop is going to be spectacular. Green shoots will be replaced by green nuke shots across the sea to Taiwan and Japan the way they're gonna crash.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 09:08 | 31413 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

yep, same here; and im heavy on a Hang Seng shorts .... that little bubble is gonna pop even harder than the one we have seen in 08 with the American Equity Markets. You're smart and you know your game.Kudos to you.

Mon, 08/10/2009 - 18:39 | 32188 whacked
whacked's picture

Do not bet against this country.

The chinese have to put their monies somewhere and cheap loans for residential properties is the main reason. Construction companies will be supported by the Chinese central Bank, as it has in the past. Great for employment... imagine those 47 million people unemloyed ..

Millions of chinese buy condo's in cities so that their child has the opportunity to attend university. Whether they are lived in or not they (chinese) do not have land taxes to maintain, only the loan. Understand their collective mind-set and you will realise that they have no intention to save for their future generations. Google Ghost Condo's China and read a bit on mpettis.com before you short them

 

 

 

 

 

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