Dallas Fed Big Miss, Prints at 11.5 On Expectations Of 18.4, Survey Respondent: "All Of Our Raw Material Costs Are At Record Highs"

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Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:41 | 1108533 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Ho Hum. Market still climbing. QE 3.0 being priced in.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:45 | 1108542 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Alas there will be NO QE3 this year. Looking forward to when it is priced out.

 

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:52 | 1108550 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

No surprises there then... bullish...

'The cost of grain for livestock is unusually high because of high corn prices, partly attributable to ethanol subsidies.'

Nothing to do with more new money chasing corn then...

Sure

QE3 is a certainty, it's just a matter of how many and how much.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:19 | 1108703 Popo
Popo's picture

The Fed consistently demonstrates their bizarre inability to perceive causality.

It's kind of like the old fable about the man who attempts to train his horse to live without eating any food.  The training progresses extremely well day after day, week after week...   Weeks later the man claims "You know it would have worked, but I had some bad luck and my horse died".

...And quantitative easing would have worked too... if it wasn't for that dang coincidence of spiraling commodity prices.

 

 

 

 

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:22 | 1108732 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Absolutely old stick...

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 12:59 | 1109191 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Its not that the Fed cannot perceive causality, but that it is very inconvenient to be faced with one's failure. Especially when the mandate comes from the bankers and not the people truly impacted by the policy failures.  In other words, tough titty said the kitty when the cow ran dry.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 13:13 | 1109252 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

It is not that this falls on deaf ears, but on egotists and narcissistic men who will not be convinced that they caused their child to shoot helpless classmates.  Same thing, only when catastrophic events take place, will their folly be perceived but not admitted to by them, and we can hear them sing in unison..."I had bad judgement, if I'd only known or been told". 

 Off the hook by the ever forgiving American people with memories two seconds long and far to busy with app's.

I don't understand why this should be any surprise to anyone who has been awake behind the big desk for the last 90 days.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:48 | 1108551 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

that is certainly the current trend in FedSpeak.  But...will the process of pricing it out be the excuse for bringing it back?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:48 | 1108552 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I agree no QE 3

How? Why? Everything is so fucking great and running tip top. World is burning and everyone buys Netflix and priceline.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:04 | 1108614 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

because they want things to be even bettererer

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 13:16 | 1109267 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

tanks, I nedded sumthin ta luagh at snice I saw my blii for coper go sky highh.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:46 | 1108855 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

Sorry Lizzy,

You're wrong. There will either be an explicit QE3 or the fed will just end QE2 without shrinking its balance sheet. In the latter case that is equivalent to QE2 in perpetuity because the Fed's balance sheet is now so large just re-investing the maturing bonds they bought is equivalent to QE2.

In other words the Fed's balance sheet is so big unless it shrinks there will be QE to infinity. QE3 would be an INCREASE in the Fed's balance sheet beyond the obscene level it is now.

See this article from Jim Rickards:

 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/11_Ji...!.html

 

 

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 12:33 | 1109059 chairsatan
chairsatan's picture

I don't think this is accurate - without an explicit new QE program, the Fed only has its conventional OMO tools.  Their normal OMO auctions are for t-bills, not long bonds and certainly not toxic waste.  So as the long bonds and toxic waste matures, they can't roll it over using conventional tools, and without another QE they will hit the zero bound on short term rates while rates on the long bond and mortgages go vertical.  I think.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 13:06 | 1109224 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

"they can't roll it over using conventional tools"

Do you have a link confirming that?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 13:22 | 1109298 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

It is all guess work, because WE have NO idea what they are doing until after they did it.

  Look at the 120 billion "in other Assets" ....WHAT??? How did THAT happen while I was at lunch, that is what I would like to know.  120 billion is the combined GDP of 80% of the nations of the world...and it is a casual foot note on their balance sheets? 

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:48 | 1108557 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

looks like QE XXX is priced in. I'm looking forward to that asteroid hitting the earth rally...Homebuilders and REIT's are gonna rock.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:02 | 1108598 TeamAmerica
TeamAmerica's picture

Big dittos on the asteroid strike.   We deserve a good one. :-)

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:02 | 1108606 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

After being dead wrong for years, I'm finally seeing the light. Empty strip malls are a sign of growth and opportunity in CRE because they're proof positive that the developers are smart enough to screw the banks. Similarly, higher wholesale prices and stagnant wages show that employers have workers under their thumbs, so who needs to worry about margins? If the whiners need a break from the mandatory 75 hours a week, Uncle Sam has a 99 week paid vacation plan waiting for them. It's all good, ZIRP, S&P 2K, and 10% unemployment can coexist in the land of the free.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:31 | 1108783 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

All that vacant CRE property might as well be dumped on the RRE shadow inventory list...  because the services and retailers that filled those spaces, or at least a significant portion of those spaces, are gone forever.  The only possible use will be either governmental buildings or conversion to residential living...

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 13:28 | 1109322 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Actually we will need the space so we can store all those " we will create jobs" promisses from that last election.

Or has everyone gotten side-tracked and forgotten?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:11 | 1108663 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Market still climbing'? I dont really get the attitude sweeping across america today, 'nothing we can do, may as well bend over some more'....market climbing is DOW up 20 points? I think americans like getting fucked in the ass daily.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:28 | 1108762 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Misery loves company.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:44 | 1108545 SparkyvonBellagio
SparkyvonBellagio's picture

TIPs are still paying about 3-4% ? LOL

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:56 | 1108575 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Of course they are.  Haven't you heard inflation is very low, but at least deflation ins't so much a threat now.  TIPS always seemed like a bad investment to me, you have to rely on the governments inflation stats to get paid.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:46 | 1108549 Dr. Sum Ting Wong
Dr. Sum Ting Wong's picture

QE forever!

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:47 | 1108556 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

RALLY TIME!

I can see Benny racing toward the 'wall of worry' with a pole vault stick and a bag of $7B in POMO.

They'll just jack it even harder.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:55 | 1108559 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

The drum beat of no QE 3 gets louder ...... BOOM - boom - boom - BOOM - boom - boom 

 

The market has 8 quarters of earnings getting better every time for 95% of the businesses .... Apple, Starbux, IBM, CAT, Exxon, McD's, Macy's, LuLu, AT&T, Ford,Google, 3M, Deere, Loews, PG&G, Pepsi, Amgen ect .......

Things getting better will crush QE3 expectations and carry stocks moving forward and the dollar, upp, up and away ....

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:01 | 1108590 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Here is a question, why not just go into commodities?  Since you expect a massive manufacturing and economic boom to happen won't that put pressure on commodities?  I have to assume in the midst of a US industrial/economic boom people would drive more and use more copper.  If your wrong and it's just fraud and money printing that will also reflect well in commodities.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:18 | 1108671 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Commodities have run up because of QE2 and China's building boom, after thats over they will get hit. This will help businesses moving forward, because quoting - bidding for work is so tight the pass along is not taking place my best friend owns one of the biggest manufacturing plants in the midwest ..... He's loaded with work and the quotes are flooding in, but margins are still tight ..... He just had someone in from Germany who will be building machines for Alcoa in the USA, they want this manufactured in the US, shipping cost from Europe would kill them ....

 

After the middle east quiets down, QE is over, oil will get crushed and everyone will be happy ....

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:12 | 1108674 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well certainly people will be using more lead and copper soon.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:21 | 1108736 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Wow, Spalding...you think stocks will continue "moving forward" if there is no QE3?  I agree with you that commodities will get hit if there is no QE3, but thinking equities will continue their rise is mentally retarded.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:49 | 1108560 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Climbing a wall of worry? This market is climbing the Mount Everest of BS.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:54 | 1108889 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

No kidding, but the cliche' is just so motivating.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:56 | 1108577 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

hopefully they are also mandated to take lots of baths, drink lots of tap water and eat the local sushi.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 13:35 | 1109351 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Welcome to ZH...you are really funny...and WE need it.  Seriously!!! You have a great sense of humor...to bad someone from Goldman didn't appreciate it.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:59 | 1108585 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Notice the people giving the orders are NOT staying and living in Tokyo.  Fucking hypocrites.  

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 14:25 | 1109592 andybev01
andybev01's picture

' Some employees praised the level of information about radiation levels and safety the firm has communicated to them.'

 

Really...REALLY!??

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:51 | 1108566 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

WFMI

SBUX

PNRA

CMG

No impact whatsoever.  They can raise prices and the consumer will gladly pay.

Once the U.S. Consumers engage in a spending orgy, and start eat out at restaurants, they cannot be stopped.

After getting dragged through the mud in 2008 and 2009, they are tired of gloom and doom and they are ready to start living it up and spending wildly.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 10:56 | 1108581 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

All the clowns that think we are in a depression .....

Look around, stores packed even with gas at $3.80, when QE 2 is over oil will get monkey hammered and people will be giddy this summer swiping those cards spending junkies need a fix ....

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:04 | 1108623 Cleverbot
Cleverbot's picture

No I have no idea what that is but go on and explain it to me.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:06 | 1108629 TeamAmerica
TeamAmerica's picture

Missing the connection between QE2 and the price of oil.    Ending QE2 increases oil supply...how?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:06 | 1108630 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"when QE 2 is over" ---  Bahahahahahahahah hahahahahaha Bahahahahahaha.  QE will never end, stealth QE will take it from here.  Very funny indeed.  Even the Fed, will no longer fight the Fed.  Bahahahahahahaha.  Thanks for the laugh this morning.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:21 | 1108722 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

hey i like that! even the fed won't fight the fed. trademark it, my man.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:21 | 1108728 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Now its stealth QE ? So gold should not drop .....

Why is it only at 1,417 with all the new black swans that have flown into town and the dollar fall, its done nothing since Oct 20th, ..... ? But, but, everyone must know QE can't stop as you say, but it's not being priced in, why ?

 

You should do stand up at the funny farm ..... A modern day Richard Pryor routine .... 

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:45 | 1108839 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Gold will drop, some, only to correct relative to silver.  The innovators are indeed getting back in the game, but the up front costs for doing business remains high.  Margin compression big time.  Spinning paper on Wall Street does not create real value, period.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:24 | 1108749 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Hey Spalding, don't walk into the light...

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 12:57 | 1109156 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Looks like you've got almost enough rope.  

How is the government going to continue operating with no more QE?  The Fed is buying 70% of treasury issuance.  Japan is down and out.  Where is the money going to come from?  The sky?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 15:37 | 1109838 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

All the clowns that think we are in a depression

Nope, no depression here...

http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=i6b2dd9bq9ljq_&ctype=l&strai...

 

The states conspired to make tax collections look worse than they really are.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:06 | 1108635 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Yeah...I got burned out on doom and gloom too. Life is short. Spend your money and live it up. You only live once. Now back to my wife and our girlfriend. Do I have a cool wife or what!

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 11:11 | 1108661 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

top how much air pressure in that blow up doll you call a girl friend?? lol

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