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Dallas Fed Misses Consensus, Comes At 10.9 On Expectations Of 15.0, Prior 12.8, More Input Cost Warnings

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The Dallas Fed prints at 10.9 and misses expectations. Stocks ramp as the miss would have been bigger if it had snowed in Texas, and so you must acquit. In the meantime, GETCO buying not just every single INTC share in Level 2 - 200, but moving on to everything not nailed down. Melt up must proceed as planned.

Since this index missed and is thus completely irrelevant, here is the only notable extract from the report:

Prices climbed again in January. The raw materials price
index jumped from 43 to 62, reaching its highest level since mid-2008.
The share of manufacturers who saw an increase in input costs surged
to 64 percent, compared with only 2 percent who saw a decrease.
Finished goods prices
rose for the third month in a row, although the great majority of
respondents continued to note no change. Sixty percent of respondents
anticipate further increases in raw materials prices over the next six
months, while 40 percent expect higher finished goods prices.

Those who have taken Bernanke economix will realize that this is great for corporate margins and S&P 500 Earnings forecasts.

And lest anyone blame the Dallas Fed of not doing the Hopium buffet, here is the refutation:

Although several of the current activity indexes fell from December
levels, all future activity indexes rose this month. The future indexes
for production and shipments moved up to their highest levels in four years. The future new orders
index reached its highest level since 2005, with 56 percent of
manufacturers expecting an increase in order volumes over the next six
months. The future general business activity index advanced to a six-year high of 39, and the future company outlook index rose to 41.

Time to resume economic data laugh mode.

Full report.

 


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Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:38 | Link to Comment system failure
system failure's picture

well this explains how the indexes pushed positive for sure then...

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:06 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Let's see, we had a much, much more important Chicago PMI come in a decades high with tons of strong indicators of growth and we had Personal Outlays very strong, suggesting continued strength in consumer spending. I'd say that's why we're doing exactly as I predicted on the weekend - open on lows and straight up with gold getting whacked. Egypt, like all other insignificant stories blown out of proportion, has quickly faded off the front page. 

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:14 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

"Egypt, like all other insignificant stories blown out of proportion, has quickly faded off the front page."

Wow.  You do realise people are starving and dying over there, right?  I am beginning to believe your bad press, Harry.  You can go on and be right as rain all day long in regards to the NAZ, but when you're denegrating people's lives, liberty and pursuit of happiness, I will be just about ready to call you names myself.

That's one foot over the line.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:20 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

People "are starving and dying" in many poor countries around the world, some a lot worse than this. It's very, very sad. My point is, the media will grab one and make it front page and everyone gets worked up about it for a couple of days then it fades. I doesn't mean the story went away or the poverty ends but that's the way the media works.

And, when it's not on the minds of people, they feel more confident and buy stocks, etc. It's the way the world turns. Sad and unfortunate but true.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

I see.  I get your point.

The whole fact that the major media is running front from CIA, pumping ElBaradei as the saviour of the Nile, shifting focus to lighter and more wonderful news, even as the people on the ground completely ignore his irrelevant UN-stained ass only proves that major media in the US is owned lock, stock and barrel.

This is getting more pathetic by the day.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 13:20 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea the only thing of any relevance is Harrys bullshit Apple stock.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:32 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

That's the way all propaganda ministers work, Harry; including yourself.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 15:40 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Yeah, I'm sure mass revolts that overthrows a couple of US backed dictators is of no importance.

And if that spreads to all the other countries in the ME, that's not important either.

You need to quit smoking after you finish your head stash.  That's a shortcut to Poorsville.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:15 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Inflation very much looks like growth.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Cookie
Cookie's picture

OT, with apologies, but this was the first I heard of protests in Sudan also.

A coincidence this all started after Goldman Sucks bought a chunk of Facebook??

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12324646

 

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The reason you're only now hearing about it is obvious based upon your link. You are tuned to the BBC/Africa.

Please ignore that man behind the curtain and tune your browser to BBC/Imperial Empire Central (England-USA). And don't stray off the approved news feed again if you know what's good for you.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:20 | Link to Comment whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

As Bloomberg notes:

 

High-frequency trading accounts for 77 percent of transactions in U.K. markets, according to a study by research firm Tabb Group LLC.

 

“What the study shows is that so little of the continuous market is natural order flow...”

 

buy the f-wanger-machine-dip.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:40 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Prices climbed again in January. The raw materials price index jumped from 43 to 62, reaching its highest level since mid-2008. The share of manufacturers who saw an increase in input costs surged to 64 percent, compared with only 2 percent who saw a decrease.

For those of us old enough to actually remember the 70's and 80's, rather than having just read about them, this is all starting to smell and look very familiar.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:47 | Link to Comment the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

Don't work CogDiss, the Bernank can stop inflation in 15 minutes. I'm not worried in the slightest.

 

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:00 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Me either.  In the 70's we had massive uncontrollable debt that took thirty years of belt tightening to pay down.  If we owed money now like we did then, I'd be worried.  With the surplusses we're running, no problem.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:44 | Link to Comment asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

+1

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

For those of us old enough to actually remember the 70's and 80's, rather than having just read about them, this is all starting to smell and look very familiar.

Is that what they call "old people smell"?

 

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:55 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

Ah yes, I can relate to that...

DavidC

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:26 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I think you mean "manipulated economic policy smell".

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:52 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

My first house I bought in 1984...I got a 11.75% loan....and I had to put 25% down....I remember it well......and that was a good rate I thought..they were dropping at that point..

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:55 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

My father used to say that rates between 14 and 18% where indeed quite normal back then. Just imagine how real estate would crash it those rates would come back.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:07 | Link to Comment william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

End the mortgage interest deduction

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:00 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Well, yeah, but the house prices would be substantially lower as well to reflect this interest rate.

Which, in turn, actually makes for a substantially healthier and more rubust economy, seeing how a significant increase in interest rates would only lower house prices fractionally, compared to the almost cataclysmic house price fall, a 5% rate increase would facilitate in todays environment.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:02 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

The key point was the down payment.  You know, actually having to demonstrate some fiscal responsibility and an ability to pay????

 

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Now-a-days, the only thing you need to demonstrate is the ability to go into debt. Or should I say demonstrate a conditioned mind incapable of seeing the foolishness of going into debt up to your eyeballs.

Debt (Buzz to his friends) Lightyear. To infinity and beyond..............

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:07 | Link to Comment Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

That was back in the days when economists at tha Fed believed that effective interest rates should be positive numbers. Those old dinosaurs are dead and buried. Why tolerate a system that loans money to the unwashed masses at substantial risk when it's much easier to just give it directly to the banks? Cut out the middle men, they're no longer needed in the ZIRP economy.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 13:22 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

A mortgage is about the dumbest thing anyone could do today.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 13:23 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

So you are in the deflationist camp now?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:51 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Obviously, this is good for stocks.

Since M3 was too expensive to calculate, then think of the money that could be saved or created by just cancelling all economic indicators. 

Do we really need PMI, UE, GDP, etc. to tell us to buy stocks?

Maybe this would be better? No yellow required.

http://image.shutterstock.com/display_pic_with_logo/517417/517417,1273764237,1/stock-photo-red-light-green-light-d-rendered-image-53000956.jpg

 

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:48 | Link to Comment John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

  So more digization of debt should wonderful for future input costs. Ben had better spend every free minute praying that nothing finicky occurs further in the Middle East.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:49 | Link to Comment azusgm
azusgm's picture

But it DID snow in Texas.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

must have been a Colombian drug smuggler flying over...

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

For the last time, PRICES ARE NOT INCREASING.   Raw materials are experiencing a quiver in the demand-supply curve frontier as inelastic and elastic market forces have converged in a momentary up .vs. down trajectory.   This is a momentary event, the quiver will soon abate and raw material prices will no longer be experiencing anything - after all, they are inanimate objects

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

people aren't buying it anymore...

USE MORE EXPENSIVE WORDS OR THEY'LL CATCH UP!!!!

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Exactimundo!

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:57 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Agreed. Fade any oil rally.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:18 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I look forward to the reasoning, as input pricing keeps increasing.

Keynesians have had 4,061 different reasons for these phenomena, Austrians have had one. Occam's Razor.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:32 | Link to Comment whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

in the olden days of yore, humans bought and sold using fundamental and technical analysis...

in the modern era, machines scan headlines for bullish news and execute programs which contain the command:

Buy the Fooking Dip!

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 13:23 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its ALL about the trajectory of the momentary 1-time event! Whatever that means....

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

Add this irrelevant number to the Dallas Fed one

 

01-31 10:02: US NAPM-Milwaukee (Jan) M/M 57.0 vs.Prev. 62.0

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

All measures of austerity, sanity, and political responsibility unexpectedly evaporated in January. The wishful thinking components of GDP were bouyed by strong consumer ignorance and widespread reductions in arithmetic skills. Economists surveyed see this virtuous combination as evidence that the Federal Reserve's unique policies are having the desired effects.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:55 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Wow. That is pretty fucking embarrassing to live in such a piss ant country like egypt and government.collapse is ignored by the market as irrelevant. Cmon guys. Have some respect. At least let the stock market swoon a bit. That's a real insult to middle eastern and north african countries.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

The US market goes down on no-one...

Get used to it sheeple

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:03 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

I am embarrassed myself that we have stooped so low as to preach freedom, democracy and free markets to the world and this is the shaft we get.  It's just insane.

Man, when this thing goes, it is going to leave blood in the streets.

Unbelievable.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:40 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Unfortunately, it is only the hypocrites preaching these tenets....

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:05 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Held the line so far.

Pretty amazing.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:13 | Link to Comment william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

Using the 10 day it looks evil.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:36 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

the bears rule when the size of the drop is larger on successive days. Once the trend is snapped, then trees no longer grow to the sky, at least for a while.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:05 | Link to Comment william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

Silver has formed a very nice looking top and it is now trading under its key moving averages. It is also currently testing a key resistance level after Friday’s bounce on the back of fears in Egypt. Unless something happens internationally I figure silver sill continue its trend down.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:10 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

People are hollering for you back at Yahoo Finance.  They need someone to teach them how to cut and paste.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:07 | Link to Comment rookie
rookie's picture

how do you stop inflation in 15 minutes when there are $15 trillion of interest rates swaps outstanding?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:12 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Just a click of the mouse.  "Have a little faith, Baby."

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:19 | Link to Comment rookie
rookie's picture

when Volcker jacked the fed funds rate to 20% there were no interest rate derivatives.  seriously, what is the plan here?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:10 | Link to Comment Hondo
Hondo's picture

The FED and its proxies are back in buying stocks this morning.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

DX is getting smacked.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:12 | Link to Comment william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

Both gold and silver have been topping out. There have been strong distribution selling and price patterns on the charts are also clearly signaling a top was near.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:41 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Hey TROLL.  If you would like to entertain debate on metals, there are a multitude of respectful intelligent comments on another thread (which actually relates to metal) to which the only replies so far are the crickets.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:13 | Link to Comment ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

The only thing driving up commodity prices worldwide are speculators armed with cheap money provided by central bankers and super fast computers. This is causing a havoc in the lives of rest of the population and pushing them towards poverty as they can no longer afford the basic necessities of life.

Regulators are either hand in glove with the banksters or are too slow to react and take ages to identify and take measures to solve the problems.

Total ban on speculation and the reinforcement of Glass Steagall Act is strictly required to bring relief to the man on the street.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:17 | Link to Comment william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

20% down payments on home purchases and an end to the mortgage interest deduction would bring prices in line. The longer deflation is held in abeyance the greater the ultimate downside.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

See? That's a good, relevant comment.  And also correct.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 15:37 | Link to Comment RKDS
RKDS's picture

And that does what, exactly, for people who were responsible enough to put 25% down and search for a house they could afford?  Oh, yeah, it fucks them so everyone who paid off their easy money house can buy the foreclosure and become rentiers.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:18 | Link to Comment skyr191
skyr191's picture

Shut down the Bloomberg Terminals. Get one last laugh before SHTF

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQlIhraqL7o

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Today there was this reporter talking to a Egyptian guy and asked what kind of freedom they expected:

“Because we know, if Hosni Mubarak fell, we are, the whole people in Egypt, we’re gonna be free, we’re gonna be free. If the people are free in Egypt, we’re gonna go free (unclear) we’re gonna go free Palestine, we’re gonna destroy Israel!”

 

Now that kind of doens't sound to good. I seem to understand now why Israel is so panicky about all of this.

http://tundratabloids.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Obama-pharoa.bmp

 

 

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 13:06 | Link to Comment bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

I felt like Neo on his first jump when I BTFD on Friday.

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