Dallas Fed Provides Latest Confirmation Of Corporate Margin Collapse, As Prices Paid-Received Difference Hits Fresh Record

Tyler Durden's picture

Everywhere one looks (assuming one is more than just a market momentum, block order frontrunning algorithm... or a Deutsche Bank "strategist" of course), one sees relentless evidence of collapsing margins. Most recently, this was the Philly Fed, whose Price Paid less Prices Received index spread came at the highest since 1979. Well, at least it wasn't a record the Koolaiders said. Alas, that rebuttal will not work for the Dallas Fed. The latest diffusion index, which came at 17.5, on expectations of 13.0, confirmed two very much expected things: i) economic "growth" continues to be predicated on inventory stockpiling, as has been the case for the past two years, which is nothing but a highly speculative bet that demand will eventually pick up (and we pray the Dallas Fed respondents use FIFO not LIFO accounting), and ii) margins are getting crushed. Recreating the Philly Fed Prices Paid less Prices Received index shows that the differential of 45.50 is now at all time wides. Notably, the last time the spread was at or above 45 was in early 2008 following which everything went to hell. Expect to see many more diffusion indices confirm the relentless erosion in corporate margins, which in turn will result in either accelerating end-user inflation (unlikely), or imminent margin and EPS downside guidance, which even a reluctant Wall Street will have no choice but to take into account over the next several weeks.

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gordengeko's picture

lotta snow this year already.

Bearster's picture

Any business who wants to decrease sales revenues and unit volumes can try to raise prices in this environment.

NotApplicable's picture

If only their balance sheets were robust enough that they could survive lowering prices until such a point that the market would clear (as Say would say), then the recovery could begin in earnest.

But alas, the only corps that will survive this Fedgov induced disaster will be the TBTFs that can roll paper out to Benron. All the rest will consume their capital until such a time as they cannot maintain the fiction any longer, and will be consumed by the bankster-banked paper sharks in order to get the remaining scraps of wealth.

ColonelCooper's picture

But the markets are up, so it must be good.

plocequ1's picture

Nothing the Taxpayer couldnt handle. $3.59 for a gallon of gas. Mere bag o' shells.

plocequ1's picture

I am John Q Taxpayer. May i help you?

Burgess Shale's picture

A unionized public employee, a member of the Tea Party, and a CEO are sitting at a table. In the middle of the table is a plate with a dozen cookies on it. The CEO reaches across and takes 11 cookies, looks at the tea partier and says, "Watch out for that union guy, he wants a piece of your cookie!"

NotApplicable's picture

Really, then where are the banksters?

(this is just typical divide and conquer tactics to distract from the real criminals)

Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

The leveraged themselves to the hilt to produce twelve cookies out of only enough dough for one cookie, and the CEO is their lap dog for life, because he loves cookies.

LawsofPhysics's picture

After a few seconds, the Tea party member and union guy, who are also starving because their salaries don't keep up with real inflation, strike a deal to eat the CEO and split his assets. ;-)

 

 

Henry Chinaski's picture

fun game

Then a politician comes in and gives the CEO a subsidy to make organic crackers.  Cookies are outlawed as an unhealthy snack.  

lets play

flattrader's picture

I want a piece.

Can we make the CEO a bankster?

topcallingtroll's picture

I sure wish stockholders would assert their ownership rights and keep management in line.

IrishSamurai's picture

This joke is making the rounds on all forums ...

It's as funny as cancer ...

And as truthful as Fraser Patrick McInnon ... 

Flakmeister's picture

Oh... could you please elaborate? Now it is a bit of a parable, but you are going to have to work hard to refute it.

IrishSamurai's picture

Sure ... one question:  Who made the cookies?

Think carefully before answering.  You'll either show your partisan roots and lack of market economics ... or you'll get the answer right and this discussion will end quickly ...

The root flaw to the "parable" (which is a laughable statement, in and of itself) ... is unionized public employee.

Again, think carefully, young Jedi.

Flakmeister's picture

  I can assure you that the CEO did not make the cookies and even read the recipe for that matter.

IrishSamurai's picture

Thanks for showing your partisan roots.  Discussion over.

 

topcallingtroll's picture

Uh....I think yours are showing too.

IrishSamurai's picture

Yeah.  I have none.  I hate both the greedy CEO and the greedy public sector union employee ... cause I'm libertarian and don't buy into the left/right false dilemma road to HELL.

But you keep playing that game and see who wins in the end ...

topcallingtroll's picture

I hate them both too. I guess I assumed by your tone that you favored one of the groups. My apologies!

Flakmeister's picture

Agreed, greed is not good. And agreed, lets ditch the left right false dichotomy. In essence what you have told me, is that productivity gains in real production, not potemkin financialization, belong to the top, even though most of said productivity gains orginated from middle layers of the company? And that there is no fair means to distribute over the entire vertical structure of a company?

IrishSamurai's picture

In essence what you have told me, is that productivity gains in real production, not potemkin financialization, belong to the top, even though most of said productivity gains orginated from middle layers of the company?

No.  I haven't told you anything.  You've inferred my position from projection and false pretense ...

 

And that there is no fair means to distribute over the entire vertical structure of a company?

The joke ... or parable if you want to call it that (although this is a perversion of an actual parable) ... starts from a false premise.  Public sector union employees don't belong to a "company" ... they don't have a CEO.  

Also, I'm not into wealth distribution through "fair means" ... when you get everyone in the United States to agree on what "fair means" ... actually means ... well, maybe we can have that discussion.  But the problem is that "fair means" in our country has become equal to "self-preservation" first, my fellow man second ... the CEO, the public sector union employee, and the tea partier all share this common trait ...

... but the difference is that the tea partier, or as I read it, the taxpayer ... has no voice in "fair means" ... which is why this is the real story:

"A CEO, a public sector union thug, and a taxpayer sit down at a table of 12 cookies that were created by the CEO's company.  The CEO risked 3 cookies to create the 12 cookies, so he takes 6 cookies for his risk and investment ... the taxpayer who works for the company gets 2 cookies for helping make the 12 cookies, and the public sector leechfuck gets 4 cookies for doing absolutely nothing ... but then the government comes in and takes 1.5 of the taxpayers cookies because the union thug wants to be on 'fair means' with the CEO ... basically for existing, pushing paper, etc. (contributing zero to the productive capacity of society).  So the government, using physical extortion, taxes the other 1.5 cookies from the taxpayer to make the union thug closer to equal with the CEO ... and the CEO and the union thug continue to vote for politicians who exercise this discretion in cookie distribution while the taxpayer continues to get cornholed for basically trying to feed/raise his family and live off the table scraps left by the other two greedy fucking groups ... "

No, not funny ... but more based in reality.

 

Flakmeister's picture

No.  I haven't told you anything.  You've inferred my position from projection and false pretense ...

 

Pot meet kettle... now moving along. 

You seem to have a lot of vitriol for public employees...Yeah, the is a limit to how far I will defend them and there has been a lot of abuse of the system. But you are simply apopletic. Not good, it can lead to cancer. I also suppose that you have only marginally benefited from any form of public services?

You state that the CEO put up 2 cookies.... I think it is pretty clear that the "CEO" in question is not a small business type, we are referring to the top 0.5 to 1% of the food chain, are we not? Well, you are completely naive if you think the CEO has any real skin in the game, he is only extracting what he can as fast as he can. 

Its pretty clear you are angry, and probably have a right to be. But the parable is all about who is really screwing the American people.

 

IrishSamurai's picture

But the parable is all about who is really screwing the American people.

Not angry.  Wise to the game so no reason to be angry.

I have no vitriol for public employees.  I have vitriol for public "me first" types which is what is on display in Wisconsin.  When the average public sector employee is making nearly 2x their private sector counterpart, you do the math and tell me how that works out when the private sector employee is funding the public sector employee. 

Not naive either.  If you really think that the Jamie Dimon or Lloyd Blankfein are the biggest problems we have in this country, you're not awake yet.  Here is the red pill.  See you on the other side.

 

Flakmeister's picture

The essence of Libertarianism is "me first" but I digress....

If the median compensation in this country had kept pace with the economy since 1970 that it woud be ~$110,000 in todays dollars. We do agree on where the difference went, do we? The thing that you miss is that the public unions were able to roughly keep what they had from those days, the bulk of the private sector joes were hosed. It wasn't the public sector that hosed them either...

Now you appear to be a student of political philosophy and history. Could you tell when you think that America was at it's pinnacle (I deliberately leave it vague for your benefit) and could you describe how we could get back to that ideal.

 

IrishSamurai's picture

The essence of Libertarianism is "me first" but I digress....

You probably need a re-schooling in libertarianism, but I'm not here to give it.  There are plenty of links on the internet ...

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=libertarianism

 

Now you appear to be a student of political philosophy and history. Could you tell when you think that America was at it's pinnacle (I deliberately leave it vague for your benefit) and could you describe how we could get back to that ideal.

You and the other harvester should get together ... you'll have a great crop with all the strawmen you're building in trying to re-frame the argument.  Already seen this game played out ... let's revisit in case you missed it:

I say: 1776 ... You say: You support slavery!

I say: 1880 ... You say: You still support slavery and non-equal rights for all Americans (womens, blacks, the gheys, etc).

I say: 1940 or 1950 or 1960 ... You say: You support 90% tax confiscation to support our country ...

So here's what I really say:  I'm not going to try to knock down your strawman.  Good luck with the harvest.

Flakmeister's picture

   No need to pick up your toys and leave in a huff....

The thing you libertarian types always miss, is how to deal with the 5% of society that are certified sociopaths. At the root of all political philosophy is addressing that question. And no one has come up with an answer to that with is consistent with their philosophy. And for the record, we do agree that it is the 5% that have fucked everyone over?

Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

... cause I'm libertarian and don't buy into the left/right false dilemma road to HELL.

I lol'd.

He believes in abstractions even further removed from reality than the left/right paradigm.

 

 

StychoKiller's picture

This Reality that you're in favor of is full of Ignorati, get some education:

http://pixel420.com/pixel420/stateless/

 

Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

I think you mean me. But I wasn't coming out "in favor" of any Reality, so I'm confused.

I've seen that site linked a couple times recently, but never looked past the link titles.

I looked into a few of them this time...

...found it to be a lot of intellectual boner fluffing...

...that "Argument from Morality" was painful to read, it was so bad.

...we got more important stuff to deal with in the reality we are stuck before we construct utopia...

..."anarchy" any time in the next decade is going to be civil war culminating in feudal rule...

...but maybe in the long run some anarchist utopia can come to be.

ttyl

edit: And maybe in the long run Peter Joseph's utopia can come to be... I got no particular preference as long as the world is "fair" in utopia in the long run... LOL

goodrich4bk's picture

To quote you, thanks for showing your partisan roots. Discussion over.

Now for those still interested in playing, please feel free to explain how an economy without teachers, firemen, police, courts, a military, etc. produces anything other than the most simple products, such as cookies. And then tell me how many cookies the CEO gets to eat in that kind of society.

Hard to determine? Just look at any country on the planet that does not educate its citizens, where there is no rule of law, where private property is a privilege granted by the sovereign and not a constitutional right. Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, North Korea -- the list is nasty, brutish and short.

Should we insist that all sectors, including public employees, sacrifice for the good of our children, who stand to inherit the mess we've made? Of course. But the notion that we can do without public employees, or that they are "thugs" for acting with the same self-interest that we claim is a virtue when exercised by a CEO, is laughable.

IrishSamurai's picture

Your corn harvest is safe this year, that's for sure ...

StychoKiller's picture

...where private property is a privilege granted by the sovereign and not a constitutional right.

 

What makes you think we "need" any govt of any sort?

http://pixel420.com/pixel420/stateless/

 

 

Flakmeister's picture

Hey, I hear Somalia is offering immigration visas for cheap. I hope you aren't too late to book your flight to the libertarian paradise....

topcallingtroll's picture

The CEO and management are only taking 5 cookies. The union guys where they exist are taking 6. There hasnt been any left for stockholders and tea partiers. Capital gains are merely phantom cookies. The dividends are the real cookies and they are a few crumbs at best.

Of course reality doesnt make a good joke in this case. The joke is on the investor.

IrishSamurai's picture

+googolplex

No the CEO didn't make the cookies.  Neither did the "public sector" union employee ...

 

sgorem's picture

Made In China....................

IrishSamurai's picture

Explains the lead poisoning ... thanks for the laugh.

ssp2s's picture

How many cookies did the taxman take?  To whom did the taxman give the cookies?  Whatever your answers, I am entirely certain that the Union guy receives a lot more cookies than the teaparty guy.

And you can bet that the CEO doesn't take any cookies until sorting things out on the front end with the taxman and the bankster.

Your parable is a parabable.  FAIL

mophead's picture

A unionized public employee, a member of the Tea Party, and a CEO are sitting at a table. In the middle of the table is a plate with a dozen cookies on it. The CEO reaches across and takes 11 cookies, looks at the tea partier and says, "Watch out for that union guy, he wants a piece of your cookie!"

 

I disagree, here's the real story:

A unionized public employee, a member of the Tea Party, and a CEO are sitting at a table. In the middle of the table is a plate with a dozen cookies on it. The CEO reaches across and takes 11 cookies. The union employee threatens to stop doing business with the CEO's corporation--that and/or get his buddies to unionize his company. The CEO says fine, then hands the unionized public employee 11 cookies, plus the last cookie that's on the plate, and the plate itself, then a) rips the shirt off the Tea Partier, b) takes his wallet out, c) empties the change out of his pockets, then hands everything to the unionized public employee.

Misean's picture

What do profits have to do with stock prices?