The Dallas Fed Reminds That The Economy Is Doing Much Worse Than In The Administration's Worst Nightmare

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Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:38 | 517949 VK
VK's picture

That figure should be adjusted for em-pop and the participation rate. Wonder what effect a more realistic 14pc+ figure would do for Keynesians?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:38 | 517950 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

'[A]ll assumptions about "alternate worlds" hypotheses are always flawed,...and the economic situation would likely have been far better now, had we taken the bitter pill at the proper time two years ago, reset the system, and started afresh.'

Pot, I have a kettle you need to meet....

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:48 | 517967 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

no you di'nt

Sun, 08/15/2010 - 11:32 | 522393 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

Greater Fool,

You are correct to question the validity of ALL such macro-prognostications.

The further from the here and now,

the farther into the future,

the more the variables and happenstance,

the greater are miscalculations and bias magnified.

Nonetheless, some authorities, despite obvious human existential limitations, maintain a conviction of infallibility regarding their godlike predictions as to the future (or past hypothetical) course of events.

Unfortunately, from such unwavering conviction about macro history is derived the willingness and the excuses to commit all sorts of mass atrocities and injustices in the here and now. From arbitrary imprisonment and torture, to pre-emptive wars, mass starvation, or mass suffering, it’s all done for the “future good”.

Perhaps a little more humility is in order.

The economic “stimulus” policies of our government have made unemployment worse even by the standard of the government’s own employment goal. That is indeed, ridiculously pathetic.

But should we have ever believed those who claimed to know what’s bad now is good for the future?

Should we have ever believed those who claimed that public borrowing to subsidize billionaires and mega-banks would improve the economic lot of us all?

Should we have ever believed that starting wars now best prevents future wars?

Should we have ever believed that garrisoning the planet and increasing investments in unproductive military activities safeguards our future?

And should we now believe those who insist that draconian cutbacks in social spending will improve our future?

And should we also ignore that the nation’s total municipal budget shortfall is hardly one month’s budgeted spending on wars and militarism?

In short, are our troubles essentially self-imposed?

Are we too ready to believe the charlatans who claim the worse tasting their medicine, and the higher the price, the better for us in the “long run”

(when we will all eventually of course, be dead)?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:42 | 517951 Racer
Racer's picture

I nearly choked with laughter when I saw that chart..

It would be funny if it wasn't so seriously bad for those affected.

And it proves just how WRONG these idiots, who are throwing more money at the banksters, are

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:44 | 517958 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

The best part is the authors of the chart!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:48 | 517971 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Yeah but the trend is your friend. :>)

Right up until it isn't anymore.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:52 | 517978 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

I had an old boss who used to say "If you can't point to the numbers, point to the trend!"

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 13:06 | 518011 Walt Whitman
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To top it off...

I read after Romer's departure from Team Obama, that she was being considered for the top spot at the San Fran Fed.

Destruction "...from California to the New York Island" as the song goes.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 16:05 | 518516 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"...to the gulf stream waters"

LOL Walt!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 16:27 | 518564 leftcoastfool
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...(In) this land the slaves are you and me...

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:46 | 517965 Cookie
Cookie's picture

+1

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 13:11 | 518023 breezer1
breezer1's picture

obama is the idiot. they need an idiot in charge so they can steal the world.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 14:59 | 518353 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

He's no idiot. Great book deal, great job, eternal fame (or infamy), huge speech fees for decades, etc. 

He's a very smart shill for his corporate bosses. Playing his hand well. Doesn't mean it works well for you or the rest of us. 

I do get the sense every now and then that they really are frustrated their policies aren't working. Which would be idiocy, because they weren't designed to work for anyone but the bankers. 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:12 | 518790 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

maybe bosses of the corporate bosses, n'est ce pas?

- Ned

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 13:24 | 518059 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Like a bunch of lying little kids. They know they will be caught but they have to lie. It's a compulsion.

Only compulsive liars run for political office. All candidates are narcissistic sociopaths. Lying is one of their many undesirable traits. 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 14:28 | 518267 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"At first glance, it doesn’t appear the stimulus achieved these  objectives...

but if you keep staring at the chart for sixty seconds, then look at a blank wall, the color bars will change and you will see job growth  

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:46 | 517963 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

Newsflash - it wouldn't, and the economic situation would likely have
been far better now, had we taken the bitter pill at the proper time two
years ago, reset the system, and started afresh.

Amen to that brother.

 

 

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:57 | 517991 DB Cooper
DB Cooper's picture

If we'd have taken the bitter pill then we would not have needed any new FinReg - the survivors would certainly know to regulate themselves, and the suffering would have fallen with those that caused the problem instead of the rest of us.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:47 | 517966 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Overheard in the Fed hallway during a whispered conversation between Timmy and Bernanke:

"Someone needs to stick an annulus up the Dallas Fed's butt and shut them up."

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 14:56 | 518348 hangemhigh
hangemhigh's picture

"Someone needs to stick an annulus up the Dallas Fed's butt and shut them up."

magic eight ball says go long covert probing sessions on the mother ship............

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:49 | 517972 Thomas
Thomas's picture

I hope Christina Romer is brighter than she looks.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 13:08 | 518014 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

And so what does bright look like chauvanist?

Sun, 08/15/2010 - 23:43 | 523377 Thomas
Thomas's picture

So if I said, "I hope Bush is brighter than he looks" you would call me a chauvinist also, or are only guys allowed to look like nitwits. Speaking of looking like a nitwit...

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 13:10 | 518016 Monkey Craig
Monkey Craig's picture

i don't trust fat pigs like Romer or Summers

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 13:34 | 518097 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

How about trim ones like Geithner?  He's OK?  Hank "the shank" Paulson?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 13:49 | 518141 CosmoJoe
CosmoJoe's picture

Yes

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 15:06 | 518370 hangemhigh
hangemhigh's picture

i don't trust fat pigs like Romer or Summers

How about trim ones like Geithner?  He's OK?  Hank "the shank" Paulson?

fat, skinny......those values don't compute.  all that matter is that mission ready replicants be of recent manufacture and equipped with easily programmable chip assemblies in place .............  

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:13 | 518794 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

monkey, you can trust me, I'm not fat yet.

and I'm not like the others ;-)

- Ned

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:50 | 517974 SimpleSimon
SimpleSimon's picture

Three highly 'stimulated' persons, Ben, Obama and Geithner, have been spotted in Dallas today enquiring for the whereabouts of the author of this paper....they want to make a direct deposit.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:50 | 517975 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Yes, but many jobs will be created and the deficit will be cut drastically once the healthcare bill takes effect. Wizard!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 15:19 | 518410 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

WHYYYYYYYY?

I was being sarcastic so TAKE IT BACK!

You just couldn't tell I was doing my Nancy Pelosi imitation because you couldn't see my eyes bugging out or my my big head wobbling on my skinny neck.

:-P

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 16:11 | 518523 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Health Care Saves Jobs
If your proctologist does not run over 12 pedestrians on the way to work...

Did he save 12 jobs?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 16:28 | 518568 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

If your proctologist does not run over 12 pedestrians on the way to work...

Ah, the ASSMAN.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:53 | 517979 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

Instead we are now preparing the latest stimulus which is Obama funding
the digging of holes all across the country (soon to be used as a
terminal repository for worthless US currency).

Uh, didn't Iran beat us to the punch on that one?

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:01 | 519350 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I miss Bahgdad Bob -- he would've had something brilliant to say about all of this.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:55 | 517980 American Dreams
American Dreams's picture

Yes and good ole' stained pig chin Romer did such a good job on this report that she is next in line to head the San Fran Fed.  Brilliant!!

 

there be no shelter here

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:52 | 517981 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

The only thing we can accurately ass-u-me here is that the FED, Treasury and our lawmakers have made an ass out of you and me. 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:52 | 517982 mortpiedra
mortpiedra's picture

Keynes wrote in 'Inflation as a Method of Taxation':

"A Government can pay its way … by printing paper money.  That is to say, it can by this means secure the command of real resources—resources just as real as those obtained by taxation.  The method is reprobated, but its efficiency cannot be disputed.  A Government can live by this means when it can live by no other.  This is the form of taxing the people which it is most difficult to evade and which even the weakest Government can enforce when it can enforce nothing else.

“On whom has the tax fallen?  Clearly on the holders of the original notes … The burden of the tax is well spread, cannot be evaded, costs nothing to collect, and falls, in a rough sort of way, in proportion to the wealth of the victim.  No wonder its superficial advantages have attracted Ministers of Finance.

“Experience shows that the public generally is very slow to grasp the situation and embrace the remedy….  But sooner or later the second phase sets in.  The public discover, in effect, that it is the holders of notes who suffer taxation and defray the expenses of government, and they begin to change their habits and economise in the holding of notes….  The public try to protect themselves in this way when they have convinced by experience that their money is always falling in value and that every holder of it loses.

“It is common to speak as though, when a Government pays its way by inflation, the people of the country avoid taxation.  That is not so….  The same arguments which I have here applied to the note issue can be extended, with a few modifications, to all the forms of internal Government debt….  What a Government spends, the public pay for.  There is no such thing as an uncovered deficit,” (Italics added)

 

Out of Dyning of Money by Jens O. Parsson (1974)

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 13:58 | 518162 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Great quote which illustrates just how great and insightful a thinker Keynes really was.  Its his so-called followers like Krugman who are complete idiots.   In the 20th century only Hayek can rival him for contributions to economic ideas.  Hayek's most trenchant insight was of course, debt=serfdom, and that all central planners and "experts" use debt to take away freedom and enslave the masses.  So far, so good, on that plan.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 15:02 | 518363 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

In the glib cable news/reality TV world, it would be relatively easy to hijack a 'famous' economist and boil their theories down into a conveniently self-serving thought-process: print and spend as much as a government wants. 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:53 | 517984 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

President Camacho: Now I understand everyone's shit's emotional right now. But I've got a 3 point plan that's going to fix EVERYTHING.
Congressman #1: Break it down, Camacho!
President Camacho: Number 1: We've got this guy Not Sure. Number 2: He's got a higher IQ than ANY MAN ALIVE. and Number 3: He's going to fix EVERYTHING.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 13:17 | 518041 Biggvs
Biggvs's picture

Just watched Idiocracy last night. Funny flick.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 13:33 | 518088 IE
IE's picture

It's got Electrolytes!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 13:31 | 518089 IE
IE's picture

Agreed... fantastic. 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:09 | 518662 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Mike Judge is doing some new Beavis and  Butthead I hear.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 14:59 | 518357 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

And here's deep-cover video straight from the most recent Fed meeting:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Vw2CrY9Igs

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:53 | 517986 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Re the comment "...and the economic situation would likely have been far better now, had we taken the bitter pill at the proper time two years ago..."

So true and Karl Denninger - for one of many - has argued that a bitter pill needed to be taken as far back as 2001, but no - the housing bubble was blown among other things.

Of course one could argue that the root of the rot in today's financial-economic system is from still further back - it's been a slow rot at times.

All that aside someone or something is gonna force us to swallow a big ole bitter pill one day (soon) only that "cure" may choke us to death.

Pete

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:58 | 517994 truont
truont's picture

What is clear is that stimulus funds have exacerbated near-term fiscal imbalances.

Wow!  The Regional FEDs have been taking a lot of pot-shots at the Central FED and USCONgress. 

Welcome aboard the USS Sanity, Dallas FED!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 13:12 | 518027 Walt Whitman
Walt Whitman's picture

Damn the torpedoes!!

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