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As David Cameron Resignation Odds Surge From 100/1 To 8/1 In Hours, Is UK Default (And Contagion) Risk Set To Follow?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

What started off as a simple, if very much illegal, information gathering protocol (and yes, NOTW is most certainly not the only organization that hacked voice mails), and has since escalated to an epic shakedown of one of the world's most legendary media companies in which Murdoch himself now appears on the verge of leaving the company, appears set to ultimately result in a historic parliamentary collapse, with the Prime Minister of the UK David Cameron seen as the ultimate fallguy. As English booking agency reports, "David Cameron's odds of leaving the Cabinet have been slashed by Ladbrokes. The bookies have taken a steady stream of bets on the PM leaving office with the odds dropping from 100/1 to 20/1 and now 8/1 in a matter of hours." In other words anyone who bet that the shuttering of the NOTW was merely the first step in the News Corp. scandal and that it would reach as high as the pinnacle of UK leadership, has made a return well over 10 times in the past several days. And yet, as the Economist chimes in with a late night piece, the departure of Cameron at this point is far from certain. Which is arguably a far worse state of affairs: if there is anything the markets hate, it is uncertainty. If Cameron was sure to stay or go, it would have no impact on the UK's economy and financial markets. As it stands, and with Murdochgate getting worse by the minute, we would not be surprised to see UK CDS follow the US and Germany to multi-year highs, as the UK now openly becomes yet another target for the bond vigilantes who relish precisely this kind of uncertain inbetweenness.

More from Ladbrokes:

Only Chris Huhne (2/1) and Andrew Lansley (6/1) are deemed more likely now to quit next leaving the PM joint third favourite with Kenneth Clarke (also 8/1).

Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes said: "This bears all the hallmarks of a massive public gamble. People up and down the land are queueing out of the door of our shops to back the PM to walk."

Ladbrokes latest betting
Next Cabinet Member to leave

Dead Heat Rules apply if more than one leave on same day

    Chris Huhne - 2/1
    Andrew Lansley - 6/1
    Kenneth Clarke - 8/1
    David Cameron - 8/1
    Vince Cable - 10/1
    Cheryl Gillan - 10/1

On the other hand, here is The Economist's take:

It is wrong to argue, as do some Labour MPs, some bloggers and tonight's edition of BBC Newsnight,
that David Cameron logically might have to resign as prime minister,
now that Britain's most senior police officer, Sir Paul Stephenson, has
had to quit.

The argument rests on a superficially neat piece of
symmetry. Sir Paul, until this weekend Commissioner of the Metropolitan
police, had to resign after it emerged that his force had employed the
former deputy editor of the News of the World, Neil Wallis, as a PR consultant. In contrast, Mr Cameron hired Mr Wallis's boss, the ex-NotW editor
Andy Coulson as his PR chief, and yet he is still in his job as prime
minister. "Spot the Difference", grumbled the Newsnight political editor
Michael Crick, who had earlier asked the Tory mayor of London, Boris
Johnson, to explain the same contrast at a press conference this
afternoon, reducing the normally loquacious Mr Johnson to stammering and
flannelling.

Ex-commissioner Stephenson clearly sees things the same way, aiming a clear barb at Downing Street in his resignation statement,
when he noted that his ex-tabloid helper had never had to resign,
unlike the prime minister's ex-tabloid helper, Mr Coulson (who stood
down as editor of the NoTW in 2007 after the jailing of his
royal correspondent and a private investigator over phone-hacking, even
though he said he knew nothing about it).

But the problem was not
so much that Neil Wallis was given a two day a month contract at
Scotland Yard between 2009 and 2010, advising senior officers on PR
strategy. The problem is that more recently, even after the police came
under huge pressure for their astonishingly lackadaisical approach to
the phone-hacking scandal at the NotW, senior officers did not
think it appropriate to tell anyone in government, let alone the public,
that they had been paying a former deputy editor of the same paper for
strategic press advice.

This though that advice was being given at
the very same time, in 2009, when Scotland Yard was deciding not to
reopen the hacking investigation, and was poo-pooing the excellent
reporting of the scandal by papers like the Guardian. In the
end, the police only alerted the government last week, on the day that
Mr Wallis was arrested on suspicion of involvement in phone hacking, as
part of the current police probe, known as Operation Weeting.

If
it had only just emerged that David Cameron had been secretly taking
paid advice from Andy Coulson, the prime minister would also be in
astonishing trouble right now. As it is, Mr Coulson's appointment (which
was a colossal mistake, as I have said many times) was a matter of
public record. That makes a very big difference.

One way or another, this unprecedented public scandal will provide sufficient cover to what is really happening behind the scenes: the status quo's very battle for survival with the (solvent... albeit temporarily) fates of both the Eurozone and the US resting in the balance as of this posting.

 


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Mon, 07/18/2011 - 22:27 | Link to Comment km4
km4's picture

And Murdock will just find a new CEO and remain the power broker behind the scenes like Putin in Russia and Goldman Sachs in America ;)

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 00:04 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

No, the people behind Murdoch stay in power, Murdoch goes apparently.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 01:03 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Apparently being the key word bob.

Onwards and upwards to the great KenLay/Saddam/hitler?/Osama playground in the BSkyb.

;-)

ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/07/16/66th-anniversary-of-trinity-a...

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 01:24 | Link to Comment old naughty
old naughty's picture

good observation, BP and ORI.

Rumble and tumble...started with DSK. There's no stop now (not that ever there was one).

Speeding up. Spain, Italy, UK...Appears NOT-in-waiting.

London calling, in-deed.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 22:29 | Link to Comment Seymour Butt
Seymour Butt's picture

The whistleblower has been found dead. When you thought it couldn't get any worse...

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:56 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

And before he could cash in on his book deal too.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 22:30 | Link to Comment KeyserSoze
KeyserSoze's picture

Corporatism at its finest.... bitchez.

 

*New-ish to ZH*

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 22:34 | Link to Comment jdh2358
jdh2358's picture

No -- it's that sovereign currency issuer thing.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 22:42 | Link to Comment scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

This is turning into a runaway train, though if Cameron has half the nerve that Gordon Brown had he will try and laugh this off, i cant see him departing this early in the soap opera - either way its going to be fun to watch, headless tories have a knack for all kinds of absurdity, in fact there is nothing i like more than watching tory toffs squirm when reality bites. There has never been a front bench of a uk government with so much wealth and pedigree that this one... lets see how they get on.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 05:04 | Link to Comment Dugald
Dugald's picture

          The Profumo Scandal re-visited....!

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:10 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Great track that from The Clash  ;)

regards this total BS that markets are hanging on any political event needs to be buried for good. Politicians react to the past, they do not determine the future, why would any investor give a fuk about the mascinations of these calamity clowns?

we have every political kick-off point for a trashed Euro yesterday yet the Euro strengthened against the US Dollar. Riddle me that. Maybe Obumma tripped and fell flat on his smarmy face yesterday as reason the Dollar declined (i missed the news, why did the US Dollar decline?)

TruthIn you quote UK stocks declined yesterday. That'll be the banks then nowt to do with David Camerons continued Ronald McDonald career path or Murdoch adeptly moving aside in wait for this hysterical mountain out of a microbe story to blow over. The markets don't give two hoots what bankers puppet (Cameron is ex-Barclays) moron is in office or is changing office.

The FTSE is UP 0.50% today, has Camerons chances of staying The Prime Muppet changed overnight? Nope they don't give a monkies which monkey is elected or how tenuous their position. Just as the markets didn't give a crap Britain was leaderless and rudderless for a whole week after the election while Cameron and Clegg worked out a coalition Govt (easy to do, they're both suicide socialists with absolutely identical policies afterall)

Let me repeat we had the worst political news possible yesterday for the Eurozone yet the Euro strengthened (if you believe news/politics moves markets wasn't it supposed to collapse yesterday???) ...if that doesn't expose the absolute lie markets don't react to politics (in fact politics reacts entirely to markets) i don't know what will. Zombie On Comrades

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 22:58 | Link to Comment Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Who would have thought that the news could be so entertaining?

Maybe a chink of armourplate has fallen off the PTB juggernaught.

What next.

Maybe the headline " UK gold  sold to Banking cartel in City of london"

 

 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 23:06 | Link to Comment jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

Hey, it's bullish for the us markets. The futures are up. Gold is down. What else do you all want? Buy AAPL and live the good life.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 03:06 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
Mon, 07/18/2011 - 23:11 | Link to Comment James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

It seems that the vast majority of our leadership has zero morality.  How fascinating, to witness firsthand the collapse of Western civilization.  How pathetic to go out like this.  How unnecessary to re-enter the dark ages, if voters and consumers could only exercise a 6th grade education in their choices of policital candidates and news services. 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 05:56 | Link to Comment BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Beautifully fucking said.

We cant get any politician of character, All useless fuckers for the last 40 years.

its how things can get out of hand.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:57 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

I'm afraid they check for character at the door.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 23:19 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Yesterday some Italian toff was talking about a plan for Greece whereby they buy back their bonds at 50 cents on the dollar in the market while issuing debt at 100 cents. Today I've just given up trying to follow this 6 degrees of David Cameron and he relates to NOTW.  

At some point this shit stops making any sense, its lunacy, probably by design.  

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 23:26 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

by Global Hunter
on Mon, 07/18/2011 - 23:19
#1469019Today I've just given up trying to follow this 6 degrees of David Cameron and he relates to NOTW. 

 

Any luck with Kevin Bacon, though?

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 00:19 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Its like that 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon thing, these "elite" people are all connected in some way or another, whether its 6 degrees or 10 I don't know.  My point is they'll take another one of their own down in a heartbeat to save their own skin.  The reporter that broke this died today, things are getting bizarre (I say that every week and still it gets more and more bizarre).

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 03:08 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Wasn't dissin' ya, brosef.

Found your analogy spot on.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:59 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Maybe you can connect to him through Bernie Madoff. LOL

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 05:11 | Link to Comment Dugald
Dugald's picture

  Ja mein fuhrer, those damned Englander's...its all a        fiendish plot!!

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 23:21 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

don't you love it how the UK kinda flew under the rader when their ecomomy is bad as Spain's.

Royal BS is a distraction...for so long. 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 23:29 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Bread Pudding & NOTW Circle Jerk

 

 

UK economy watch: Bread, not circuses
Tue, 07/19/2011 - 01:04 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

It's been an illegal distraction for altogether too many terrible years for the planet.

Wind-sores. Wind-down.

But there is the matter of Will I Am and the order of the garter, the stocking and the frilly panties.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/07/16/66th-anniversary-of-trinity-and-thoughts/

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 23:45 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

I wonder what Roger Ailes, former advisor to Richard Nixon, is doing tonight.

I sat up and leaned in close to him, face to face. I made the connections. Ailes knew I had given Brock the interview. Certainly Brock didn't tell him. Of course. Fox News had gotten Brock's telephone records from the phone company, and my phone number was on the list. Deep in the bowels of 1211 Avenue of the Americas, News Corporation's New York headquarters, was what Roger called the Brain Room. Most people thought it was simply the research department of Fox News. But unlike virtually everybody else, because I had to design and build the Brain Room, I knew it also housed a counterintelligence and black ops office. So accessing phone records was easy pie.

http://www.dancooper.tv/NakedLaunch.htm

 

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 01:08 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Awesome link CW. Such an insight into the 'wheels with-in wheels".

ORI

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 23:45 | Link to Comment JohnG
JohnG's picture

I can't find anything at InTrade on this....yet?

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 00:30 | Link to Comment AUD
AUD's picture

Ha, Ha... and the Old Lady of Threadneedle St is soon to see her obligations purchase only one thousandth of an ounce of gold!

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 01:01 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Anyone aware of Cameron's role in the missing nuke's? South Africa? Cameron there in 89 as DAME Lady that's quite a thatch on her?

You don't become PM of UK unless your hands are really really dirty.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/07/16/66th-anniversary-of-trinity-and-thoughts/

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 04:49 | Link to Comment Dan Hot
Tue, 07/19/2011 - 23:30 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

yup Dan. just that. Too big to print.

ORI

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 03:08 | Link to Comment terryfuckwit
terryfuckwit's picture

Look folks when someone as big as Murdoch is taking it up the a**e..It means JPM and Goldman and the Tea Party crew are nursing a nasty kick in the teeth. This is their big brainwashing machine a huge part of their kleptocratic apparatus... UK remember your place or our boys in the sigma x dark pools will certainly give you something to remember... and yes i do wear a tin foil hat and use a wet towel on my head...

Scumbag kleptocrats not worth a hair on Milly Dowlers head..go and f**k yourselves

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 05:28 | Link to Comment morph
morph's picture

Vince cable is on that list... Why would he resign? It is just a list of high profile MP's.

No one is going to bet on some MP they have never heard of.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:06 | Link to Comment Rollerball
Rollerball's picture

Just makes it easier to go "underground" á la Tony Hayward.  

Jubilee arrives when there's no body left to collect.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/53/Jubileedecimation.jpg 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:07 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

What else is the media suppose to say? You can take down our entire media edifice with no consequence? "Of course it's the end of Parliament and the Prime Minister as we know it!" Ridiculous. These are the biggest crimes we have seen in the Western World since the Holocaust. The people involved will pay at a minimum with their money. Tip of the iceberg. Move along, move along.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:10 | Link to Comment AvoidingTaxation
AvoidingTaxation's picture

Loolll!

Mother of Tristan Banon sleeped with DSK ....

 

http://www.lematin.ch/actu/monde/la-mere-de-tristane-banon-accable-un-pe...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!