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David Kostin's Latest Weekly Chartology: The S&P Downgrade Preparations Begin

Tyler Durden's picture





 

In his latest weekly kickstart, David Kostin says: "The core aspects of our positive outlook for US stocks remain in place. However, the distribution around our base case has widened since early December following a 9% rally in the S&P 500 and elevated risk to the US economic outlook from higher oil prices and inflation. Accordingly, we have shifted our recommended sector weights closer to benchmark and adjusted our thematic trade recommendations to gain more exposure to growth markets. We (1) maintain our S&P 500 year-end 2011 price target of 1500 (+14%); (2) lower our Financials weighting to Neutral from Overweight and reduce the size of our Health Care underweight; and (3) recommend buying stocks with high BRICs sales and close our Dividend Growth and Dual Beta trades. We believe these changes are consistent with portfolio risk reduction during periods of uncertainty." Considering that this came out before Hatzius' Friday night bomb skewering Q1 GDP from 2.5% to 1.75%, we are confident Kostin will have no choice but to lower his interim S&P target, following promptly by his full year 1,500 on the S&P. After all preparations for QE3 are now in full force., only this time the brent will have $125 as a baseline instead of $70. We won't even mention gold.

Kostin Kickstart 4.15

 


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Sun, 04/17/2011 - 12:29 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

More melodramatic theater to lay the groundwork for QE3, I assume.  What an incestous group of snakes these folks are.  I'm surprised they don't have a ;) at the end.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

<<< What an incestous group of snakes these folks are.  >>>

Whoremongers seems like a fitting title for the lot of them.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 13:16 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

It's a shakedown.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 14:34 | Link to Comment HitTheFan
HitTheFan's picture

We won't even mention Gold....

 

But you did just mention it!

 

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 12:32 | Link to Comment unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Don't even mention because EVERYONE knows that it can only go higher.  LMFAO!!!

 

Memo to Goldbugs:  What EVERYONE knows isn't worth knowing.

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 12:41 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

If "everyone" was a goldbug then they wouldn't be called goldbugs.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

How much is ZeroHedge getting paid to post this garbage? Or perhaps TD thinks this analysis is presented to help the public?

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 12:59 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

Would you care to explain what you meant by that? It got lost on me...

DavidC

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Why would this site reproduce the weekly forecasts from GoldmanSachs? To me it's like CNBC interviewing Mister Abby Joseph Cohen.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 13:13 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

It's called comedy relief, much like RoboTrader's comments, but much well written.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 14:25 | Link to Comment Raynja
Raynja's picture

GS tends to lead the analyst pack on WS, knowing what GS wants you to think provides insights into where you can actually position your trades to be profitable.  Far from an exact science, but more info is always better than less.  What you do with this info is your decision.

 

"To me it's like CNBC interviewing Mister Abby Joseph Cohen."

So you're comparing CNBC to ZH????

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 14:46 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Yes, i am comparing them. In my opinion the GS report is nothing but propaganda, GS pretending to be an investment bank. They are a taxpayer backstopped hedge fund. The above report is clearly copyrighted and therefore ZH received permission to publish it. How nice.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 15:30 | Link to Comment rocker
rocker's picture

If you don't like the site or information. Leave, we won't miss you !

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 15:34 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Okay, I'll just sit down and shut up and only offer favorable comments on things you like. BTW rocker, are you a real person or a bot looking out for GS?

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 17:27 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

If you could do that, we'd appreciate it.

Many in the fund community trade on GSs reco's (for and against) so its nice to have a weekly wrap on the main sectors from a guy who knows what he's talking about.

PS - some of Kostin's 3mo forecasts from last December:

EURUSD: 1.40 (was 1.41)

USDJPY: 84 (nailed it)

Gold: 1480 (was just under)

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 18:04 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

well then, why don't you just open an account with them? they offer "holistic wealth strategies".

We listen to clients articulate their needs, goals and priorities. Then we partner with them to develop holistic wealth and investment management strategies.

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/services/investing/private-wealth-managemen...

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 22:03 | Link to Comment rocker
rocker's picture

No, I do not like GS in any way. Read their crap, you bet.  As far as I'm concerned Lloyd Blankfein, Neel Kashkari and Hank Paulson all belong in Jail with Bernie Madoff. My thought is why would you be that concerned to criticize ZH for the info they get for us. Nobody says you have to read it.  

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 15:32 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

You myopic idiot.  Don't you think ZH readers know what GS is?  That does not mean it is not a good idea to know what they are saying.  In fact you'd be a fool not to listen to them, not in order to follow their advice, but to understand what the next head fake is so you can plan accordingly.

Tyler didn't make this site to be investment advice, so if you think that's why he put this article up, you've missed the entire fucking point.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Don't you think ZH readers know what GS is?

There's plenty of comments posted here about the GS report that agree or disagree with it, as if it is something legitimate. Plus there's people who read it and don't comment.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 16:55 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Thanks for enlightening us about the squido kiddo. bug lulz

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 13:45 | Link to Comment glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

It's always a good idea to know what kind of bullshit the liars are spreading around...always.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Printing of Fiat US Dollars to infinity and beyond!

 

When does the FED start printing $1,000 bills? Handling so many $100 bills is getting problematic.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 13:13 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The Return Of Grover Cleveland

 

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 13:08 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Unless wages start to go up, inflation can do only so much to propel the markets higher.

Inflation or not, people still need to be able to buy the products.

 

Go PM's, these will take up all the extra cash. Think about 5% of all wealth flowing into PM's and we'll start to rock higher on a daily basis.

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 13:14 | Link to Comment onlooker
onlooker's picture

""Why would this site reproduce the weekly forecasts from GoldmanSachs? To me it's like CNBC interviewing Mister Abby Joseph Cohen.""

Because it gives a broader view of what is being said than some of us may have.

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 13:14 | Link to Comment misterc
misterc's picture

In Germany, 99% of the population are still convinced that real estate is the best investment in this environment (artificially low interest rates spurring demand, rising energy costs, deflating wages). I wish them all good luck with their "strategy".

Gold is still ridiculed. People buy Bunds at 3.25%! To complete the picture, there's a 25% tax on your capital income. This is so crazy. Even taking the official inflation rate of 2.6% into account, you're losing money.

So, Gold is far, far away from being a bubble.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 14:32 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

At last, welcome to the FEUER-Economy.

Party like it's 2007.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 13:22 | Link to Comment NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

who in their right mind would listen to anything from GS, except to consider doing the opposite or identifying more lies

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 13:56 | Link to Comment jeffgroove102
jeffgroove102's picture

Yeah, they are the equivalent of Ben from lost, I recall one of the characters on the show saying, "whatever he tells you to do, do the opposite"

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 16:33 | Link to Comment KickIce
KickIce's picture

Except for PMs, which they need down to keep the ponzi alive, they are more self prophesy announcements.  They just benefit the most because they're positions have been previously established.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 13:23 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

When to short this S&P500? That's the real question!

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 15:26 | Link to Comment Buyemall
Buyemall's picture

Lowering the dollar even further looks like the obvious path. It wouldn't be possible to service this debt any other way. So let everybody buy gold and all the other commodities. After all what they are going to get when they sell it back it's going to be dollars.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 17:06 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Heh, no doubt, all the PigMen blueblood firms are downgrading the SPX, GDP, and everything else.

Only because the stock market is about to embark on a huge Weimar Run starting this week.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 17:53 | Link to Comment WAYBACK .....WA...
WAYBACK .....WAAAYYBAAAACKKK..O..MY..ITS OUTAHERE's picture

RT

Why do you say that--first quarter #s look weak so far?

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 13:51 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

'COPPER has ignored the recent equity bounce. Daily and weekly are not bullish' ~ March 31, 2011.

'When the sell off does occur, it won’t be pretty. As mentioned earlier, this market behaviour is similar to 2007 / 2008' ~ April 6, 2011.

'DOW/S&P500 is tracking sideways once again suggesting that short covering rally has lost momentum' ~ April 7, 2011.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

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