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David Rosenberg On A Deja Vu Melt Up
Confused by how what's left of the stock market is levitating with the reckless abandon of a manic-depressive teenager high on ecstasy and shrooms, even as it hits a fresh record bullish sentiment levels? Don't be: after all it happened, virtually tick by tick, at precisely the same time last year. David Rosenberg reminds us of everything that happened, together with the end of 2009 resurgent economic optimism, which proved being hollow and a re-recession (now that the ECRI made the word double dip no longer fashionable) was certain, only to be prevented by the last course monetary stimulus intervention in the form of QE Lite and QE 2. He also goes on to show what the key challenges for Brian Sack's trading desk will be in the coming year.
HERE WE GO AGAIN!
A great Santa rally. Treasuries sell off. Earnings and GDP growth forecasts are being upgraded daily.
2010?
Try this time last year.
Who would have thought that with real GDP growth ripping along at a 5% annual rate in 2009Q4 that the equity market would sag sharply from April through to August? The problem with peaking too early is exactly that.
And here is the calendar of worry for 2011:
Recall that last April, it was Greece and the end to QE1 that triggered the market slide and all the double-dip talk. In January, it will be about Ireland (election) and soon thereafter Portugal and Spain (refinancings). Then by March-April the U.S. Treasury debt ceiling will move to the front burner ? the new GOP dominated House will be pushing for spending austerity as a quid pro quo. Then June will come along and with it the end to QE2 and given the altered FOMC voting roster in favour of the hawks and the greater scrutiny by the new Congress, we may well have seen Ben Bernanke pull the last rabbit out of the hat.
Of course, in the second half of the year, investors will become white-knuckled over the prospect that much of the so-called “fiscal stimulus” will expire on December 31 (will Washington really allow the payroll tax rate to head back up to 6.2%) in addition to the likely end of the QE program. Could make for some interesting times, indeed.
There's interesting times, and then there's central planning. For everything else, there's Brian Sack's unlimited taxpayer debit card.
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11:59:57.77
the larger they are the harder they fall.
How did you manage to extract that thought from my head? You've expressed my sentiments exactly!
Off topic, but too funny to not share, so the CIA creates a Wiki Leak Task Force and calls it W.T.F.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/22/cia-wikileaks-taskforce-wtf
Now that is truly rich....
Did somebody say that was right after they created Wikileaks itself?
Biggest flash crash ever coming.
Flash crash is a new word for 2010. Thanks fed manipulation!
Cnbs had a story saying most economists feel that qe2 does nothing but inflate commodities and stock prices. No help to ease interest rates or create jobs.
But they all feel they will continue to buy all 600billion. Even though on both counts its failing and they are moving opposite their manidates to help employment and interest rates.
Yes I agree. But if 99% of stock trading is battle bots how does it break out of its circular feedback loop?
This does remind me of 2007/2008. Endless parade of bad news...or bad news spun as good news...or bad news completely ignored, and the market just continues on its low volume quant/bot death march higher...until it collapses.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHWjlCaIrQo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHDdqubE7zQ
My Shit's Fucked Up Lyrics
Artist(Band):Warren Zevon
Well, I went to the doctor
I said, "I'm feeling kind of rough"
He said, "I'll break it to you, son (Warren sings, "Let me break it to you, son")
Your shit's fucked up."
I said, "my shit's fucked up?"
Well, I don't see how--"
He said, "The shit that used to work--
It won't work now."
I had a dream
Ah, shucks, oh, well
Now it's all fucked up
It's shot to hell
Yeah, yeah, my shit's fucked up
It has to happen to the best of us
The rich folks suffer like the rest of us
It'll happen to you
That amazing grace
Sort of passed you by
You wake up every day
And you start to cry
Yeah, you want to die
But you just can't quit
Let me break it on down:
It's the fucked up shit
"I saw the bride in her wedding gown.....I was in the house when the house burned down"-WZ
"I saw the bride in her wedding gown.....I was in the house when the house burned down"-WZ
Send lawyers, guns and money. Dad, get me out of this ...
Things are going to have to go a little quicker if we're going to see that first month of hyperinflation. Shouldn't be long now though. http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=13 Some define it as 50% per month. Some as 20%. If you go with the former, then we're only half way there for some things.
Anyone take a look at the VIX today ? Continues to drop as complacency becomes even more entrenched .
Yeah, I guess it's going to 0.
This time is different.
Why would anyone in their right mind listen to Rosie?? He's been about 100% wrong this entire year. Remember him screaming about the ECRI Leading Index being at -11% and certainly leading to a double dip?
Wow, look at the ECRI now, just down 0.1% or essentially flat. That's an amazing turnaround. And one I'm sure caught one of the worst market prognosticators completely off guard.
Unemployment is up
Food Stamp use is up
Food, fuel, and clothing is more expensive
The US is in 2,000,000,000,000 more debt than we were last year
Municipalities are broke
What in the fuck are you talking about? Because PCLN and AAPL are up we are on some kind of road to recovery?
What I'm talking about is a guy who has been perfectly wrong on just about every front this year. Yet for reasons unknown, he is continually quoted at ZH.
Look at manufacturing data - we are, as I've been saying for a long time now, on a very slow but steady recovery. It will be a long slog but we are definitely improving economically in the US. That's undeniable.
You must have made billions in the ZIM stock market.
I too made billions in the ZIM market. Then I decided it couldn't go higher and shorted it. Now I live in a van down by the river and spend my days at the library surfing the net.
good point. gold is a better "short" on this thing than traditional shorts. somehow, though, i think (hope, if you check the portfolio) there's at least one more actual nominal dip in the u.s. stock market.
Harry, I'm in manufacturing, and you're wrong. The entire supply chain, upstream and downstream, is living with a crewcut. Only hiring is low wage temps.
That's NOT going to rebuild your consumer economy. Neither is the gubment.
I haven't been around much lately because our business has been booming. This is the best Fall/Holiday season in our 9-year history. Our entire supply chain and distribution chain is also booming.
Had dinner with a friend in town from SF. His company had such a great year that they are hiring an additional 450 people in 2011. May not sound like much but for a company that currently employs 1100, an addition of 450 is huge.
Recruiting new bodies for multi-level marketing
schemes is not "hiring".
If Harrys 'company' is even as credible as a MLM scheme which I doubt...personally I think Harrys 'consumer discretionary products' company exists only in his mind.
LOL! Honestly Harry, why don't you share with us the name of your company so we all can invest in such a stellar business. And your friend's company too. You would be such a hero. Discretionary consumer products, ha, ha, ha. Amway?
I think its Goodwill.
Harry & his co. is buying unwanted gold from nursing homes residents. BTW it is source of his cheap gold.
Of course business is up at homeless shelters Harry! Best its been in 9 years. Need a link to the article?
ditto's, I'm in mfg also, and have 21 machinists out on FS and UI for over a year, my guys come back to the shop just to see what is left of the crew. We've cuts our price 50%, and still no growth. And we are in OK, were the situation is supposed to be milder?
That must be your imagination, Harry and CNBC say things are great. My 4th quarter sales were down 25% but what do I know.
'Harrys company' exists in his mind only.
Harry you are right...
But if "the recovery" is significantly slower than the huge run up then PE's won't support the "slow recovery" pace for long and therefore collapse under their own weight in due time.
This is about liquidity, nothing else...bad money always forces good money out of the equation.
So thus far you will continue to be short term right and long term wrong...but I am sure you will get out in time with NO BID when the indexes plunge to fair value...
That's why I trail with tight stops - usually around 2-3%. There will always be a bid.
I hope you own your own personal HFT program
What good is a 2-3% tight stop when a stock can go down 10% within seconds..?
Do you understand how a trailing stop works??
What happens with your trailing stop when there are no bids?
Trailing stop = way for retail investor to lose money. The HFTs will eat you for lunch. By the time you sell order gets into the system, it will have dropped a lot more than 2-3%.
Now I call your bluff, you can use trailing stops all you want, and all that ends up happening is you get stopped out. Period! So if this is how you claim to be trading, then you aren't fooling anyone that has been around long enough into believing that you are making any money. Oh you might be making a few dollars here and there, but you aren't ripping it out of the park like you lead people to believe around here. Trailing stops at best, only work effieciently in calm markets. 2-3% trails? In this casino? Your commissions aren't even covered, or maybe just barely. Use some of those trailing stops in the FX market and see where you end up.
Yep and everyone was laughing it up about Schiff and Celente and all those guys at DOW 14,000+ and how 'wrong' they were in their calls it was all made of nothing but tissue paper and was due for a big fall. Theyll all be right again real soon.
You saying "the economy is improving" as an undeniable statement has as much credibility as if Liz Taylor says she'll never divorce again.
Injecting trillions of deficit dollars is not the sign of an improving economy but instead reflects financial stupidity by those who perceive it as such.
I see it with my own eyes and on our company's balance sheet. I see it on our distributors' balance sheets. I see it on our manufacturers' balance sheets.
I see it in the real world, looking past the cherry-picked data here based on "theory" or "conjecture". I see it in factual purchasing power of the consumer which has been amazing this year.
Your company is in your imagination Harry. You wont even say what the name of it is even in an email, so stuff a cork in the piehole about your BS company.
Your entire statement is an oxymoron.
Besides - AAPL and your company doesn't reflect the economy - or doesn't justify Barack or the Fed from spending trillions of taxpayer bucks on worthless crap.
I see it with my own eyes and on our company's balance sheet. I see it on our distributors' balance sheets. I see it on our manufacturers' balance sheets.
I call bullshit on your statement Harry. I'm highly confident that 100% of your "home decor" distributors are privately-held entitites and probably the vast majority of your manfucturers as well. Therefore, their respective financial statements are not in the public domain nor would there be any business reason for these companies to share their financial information with a customer (vendors can inquire about the credit worthiness / financial condition of their customers, but not the otherway around).
People who spew BS are generally full of it as well.
Harry, aren't you kind of missing the whole point? This isn't some contest about being "most right." At least for me, it's about the panarama of observations and analysis, woven together to illustrate the larger story.
One example: Rosie points to the ECRI and its association to past recessions. This one time, we print -11, and we don't tank. But you have to ask yourself, if Rosie was wrong, why was it necessary for the Federal Reserve to step in with ANOTHER $600 billion, and congress to pass tax roll-back provisions? Are you suggesting these extraordinary efforts by the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and Federal Government don't come at a cost?
If your company has 6 good quarters, is it worth handing a bill for $65,000 to each American family to pay off in future generations?
My point is that we haven't addressed ANY of the problems we face economically, and only scheme to defer and deflect the decisions we need to make to create a sustainable economy. Because if we can all make money by creating more debt, then why aren't we issuing a lot more? If $600 billion in QE gets us 4 quarters of GDP growth at 2.x%, then why don't we do $1.2 trillion so we can have 5% growth?
I can't find much to agree with you about because you strike me as being too myopic in your views. But whatever. Have a great vegetarian holiday. Figgy pudding is vegetarian, isn't it?
+1
I'm not missing the point. My observations are leading me to my views of the economy as I see it. I have been very negative at times and rightly so. But that changed in late summer. Oddly, that was exactly the time ZH, Rosie et. al. were convinced by the ECRI at -11% that we'd see a double dip. I didn't see that at all. I saw the complete opposite based upon our business.
We are trying to address the problems we face economically. You can't change it overnight but it is improving. Look at the ISM numbers lately, for example. It's a slow but steady move in the right direction. This could not have happened without Fed intervention.
Yes, figgy pudding is vegetarian, however a few tweaks are needed to make it vegan.
Hmmmmmm your outlook changed in late summer? About the time the FED was supposed to start unwinding and decided to go in another TRILLION? Or was it the spike in unemployment..Or perhaps the Tsunami of foreclosures, or maybe just the rise in personal bankruptcies, or the meltdown in the PIIGS, or was it the 500 billion in unearthed State debt at budget time, or maybe the fact that record number of Americans are on government assistance? Maybe foreclosuregate sent you such optimism, or the National debt breaching 13.5 TRILLION? I could go on all fucking day Harry but the bottom line is you are living in a closet. My recommendation is to get out of your closet because the rest of your house is a blaze and you can't see it. When there is smoke there is fire and believe me the smoke is getting pretty thick. And BTW anybody who looks forward to figgy pudding on Christmas Day is a PUSSY or perhaps a WUSSY. This site isn't for pussies so maybe its time you and your team of merry shill move on!
pussies are welcome. however h.w. does seem a fool.
To be fair to Harry, Rosie has consistently underestimated the ability of Bernanke et al to keep the ponzi going. Rosie is spot on with his analysis of the problems we face but his estimate of the timeframe when it all comes apart has been wrong.
Elvis, I think us bears underestimate the power of gov't spending and an endless barrage of propaganda. As long as the illusion is kept alive with big investors making money, the ponzi rolls on. Helicopter Ben and crew trashed my initial efforts at investing.
+1 The peasants in France, leading up to the Revolution, whined endlessly about how things sucked. None of the nobility payed attention. Things were good from where they stood.
in the ocean, and raining too but Harrys paper is still dry. Amazing Harry!.
only retail paper cares about the things you mentioned.
for pros, there is only one theme
buy the fucking dip.
buy the fucking double dip
sell vol to 0.
Say "sold" whenever anyone is buying vol.
hehe. Send a holiday card to the bernake, will you?
One listens to Rosie because he has
been one of the best over multi-year
time periods and he's long overdue to be
precisely on target again.
Bonds are more important than stocks and a larger market. He has had a spectacular year with his bond call. This is many times more important than stocks.
If I was worried about the solvency of my pension scheme, I'd ask Santa for a nice bump in equities and for the long end of the curve to widen a bit. Since the books only care about the snapshot at year end, it could hide a lot of problems under the rug for another year.... best thing is, any benefit goes straight to the bottom line.
it reminds me of an old chinese curse:
May you live in interesting times...
JPM breakout confirmed.
Bears who are fighting the tape and betting on a JPM failure are getting decimated.
Bears are getting decimated just about everywhere you turn. After SPX confirmed its breakout above 1245, the smartest of the bunch covered with their tails between their legs. Only the lunatics are still short out there now.
I'm shorting the top tick at 1260, Wanker.
Come and get me.
See you at 1170.
I'll have the drinks ready.
Not in 2011. Maybe in 2012 but definitely not going to see 1170 any time soon.
BTW: wasn't there someone here who bet me about donating $100.00 to ZH? I don't recall what the market call was but I believe I must be much closer at Dow 11,500+ than whatever the gloomier pick was.
Maybe in 2012? LOL, Wanker, now I know you're clueless.
Before I only suspected it.
HarryWanker already has 2011 in da bag, lol...making a few predictions about 2012 but for sure 2011 is already banked for him. LMAO! This guy and all his other ZH I.D.'s are a hoot!
I upped that other bet, big guy. I asked you to match a donation of 1K to ZH because you are doing so well. Are you ready now? Let me know.
You could always make a stronger case that the lunatics are the ones going long.. It's not like you tarot-card readers really have any argument to stand on that makes financial sense on why the market should go long.
Your company doesnt exist Harry, fantasyboy.
I am one of the lunatics Harry! Nothing lasts forever not even the FEDs punchbowl!
'Stock-centric' folks like Harry, robo, and the rest ignore Rosies BIGGER overall call on Bonds, which is a far more important and relevant market than this BS equity market.
I don't know who you are Mr. Robottrader but based on your first notice of JPM breakout I bought some calls that are screaming higher. Thank you sir. All of this negative sky is falling calls on ZeroHedge have been a quick ride to the poor house. The only reliable indicator I've found that works most frequently is the IBD indicator. What say you Robottrader?
Oh, Robo got yet another ID.
What are you saying? Not a fan of Robottrader? I just gave him/her props for a good trade I made based on his/her info.
OH, yea ok.
Now if only someone could tell me when to short or buy puts on the whole market and actually be right. There's been a lot saying to do that but thus far it has only cost money.
Oh yea, except you cant show me 1 post where Robo has ever said 'go long this stock here', 100% of his posts are hindsite after the fact 'calls' on these boner charts he posts.
Didn't know his history I guess I got lucky on that one. Now when can I short to make money? That would be the call of the year. Shorting has been death by a thousand paper cuts.
The problem with Rosenberg is that he is losing a shitload on bonds and a shitload on equities. He is WRONG on treasuries (they are collapsing). He is wrong on equities (they are rallying). I'd rather play momentum in a systemically bankrupt bond market than listen to this crap from Rosenberg.
Bingo! Well said!
Harry your company only exists in your imagination.
Wheatman, be careful, or you'll get your cherry popped.
Aren't Treasuries sharply higher since both Thursday and January?
long bond higher (in price) since early january. not so much from late. a sale in late august would have been timely.
As long as W&R doesn't start selling everything will be fine.
The Evil Genius goes mad and calls out Zero Hedge and Max Keiser for picking on poor JP Morgan...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=givYu6BW_mk
Too funny!!
That is freaking great! Huge LOL! Great parody on that ding dong that whined about Brittney Spears (I think it was). Very funny. Thanks!
All those Call buyers must be grinning ear to ear. Can it be this easy? Jezums, next we'll have that goddamn sock puppet back on TV.
Sifl & Olly?
Gaziarelli on CNBC. One hit wonder called the 87 collapse. Dregged up by CNBC replasticized facelift and all to add credibility to the stock market magic sleigh ride. See? even the most negative forecaster bullish.
oops. make that slay ride.
oops. make that slay ride.
-Even the most negative 'forecaster' bullish-
Best indicator ever of when a market has top ticked.
Elaine Garzarelli...from which stasis pod did she emerge ? The last time I can recall listening to her "indicators" jive-talk, was on Louie Rukeyser's show. Rubin may still have been at Treasury, it was so long ago.
Market is getting way overextended and we'll probably have a major correction soon.
So put your stops in just in case the market turns south.
And by the way, Elaine was just on CNBC. Her previous calls have been horrific.
From Trader Joe at Cap Stool:
...............................................................
Some prior Garzarelli Forecasts from this disfigured monster -- spot on!
______________
Friday, October 19, 2007
Elaine Garzarelli is Bullish: Indicators on a Strong Buy Signal
Today Elaine Garzarelli is very Bullish with her Indicators on a 75%
Strong Buy Signal.
During a CNBC interview today, Elaine Garzarelli had this to say:
Resized to 87% (was 579 x 335) - ClickMarket in '87 was 35% over valued
Today it is 28% under valued
Her indicators today are at 75% for a major buy signal
Source
image to enlarge
________________________________________
Tuesday, April
Resized to 87% (was 579 x 335) - Click27, 2010
Elaine Garzarelli
Bullish - New S&P500 Target
Elaine Garzarelli, President of Garzarelli Research, remains Bullish
according to Dan Dorfman in his article "It's Still a Go-Go Market!" She
remains bullish but sentiment suggests we could have a correction at
any time.
Her overall view, as exemplified in a commentary she just fired off to
clients: it's still a go-go market.
The chart below shows the S&P500 is currently at 1208.64 so reaching
Elaine Garzarelli's target of 1315 would be a gain of 8.8%.Source
image to enlarge
Nice call on her bullshit....
Maybe CNBC should get a Jon Stewart inspired financial show, spend 15 minutes a day calling out the bull shit artists and their calls...They do have the video archives after all. Would have to balance with people making good calls....
Outstanding, just laughed my ass off!
'Props for this one. +1
Just sold my Gold. This FEAR trade (Gloom and Doom) is behind us.
Economic Gurus come and go. Peter Schiff, Rosenberg and Santelli all had their day in teh sun... A whole bunch of whinning for a whole bunch of nothing.
Hyper-Inflation my ass! Deflationary Depression, my ass!
...at least it isn't sore from the pounding doomers have taken shorting the dollar and/or the stock market
Smart move. Now buy some NFLX and get rich, kid.
Ouch!
No, no.. He should buy AAPL! It's sooo undervalued here! lol
I'm still holding on to my PMs but you're correct about the whining. A whole lot of whiners looked a whole lot of bad in 2010.
Harry
what signs are you looking for to sell your PM holdings?
After the tax extension passed, QE supporting strong dollar and Double-Dip not happening... was enough for me
Most of my gold was purchased in the 380 - 450 area. If we see a sudden drop to 1200 area, I would be tempted to sell. Otherwise, I have no reason at this time.
LOL! Claims of bottom gold buying from fantasy boy! Your company exists only in your mind Harry.
He buys every bottom and sells every top. Harry has a secret 'trailing stop' system. Or he is just trolling. You decide.
.
Double-Post. (No Double-Dip).
Serious question
Who has more accurate predictions?
Rosenberg or Cramer.
This year? Cramer by far.
LOL douchenozzle...hey Harry whats the name of your company?
Serious question
Who has more accurate predictions?
Rosenberg or Cramer.
Serious question
Who has more accurate predictions?
Rosenberg or Cramer.
I've been looking to buy the fucking dip. But can't seem to find a dip - only rips. Then I stumbled across the dip of all dips - CSCO. I assume the Bernank would approve.
Yes. Rosie has been so wrong it's pathetic and embarrassing for ZH to keep posting his useless drivel.
I keep warning ZH of the equity bash, too. I strongly believe the rise in equities is nothing more than inflation caused by printing money. The sheeple and fundamental money managers--who think they're genious right now even though it has nothing to do with them and everything to do with the Federal Reserve--don't understand and won't for some time.
And as stocks are merely and currently decoupling from Precious Metals it only fuels the like-minded equity sheep that they're above savvy and sopistication. Gravity might just be a continual melt-up. Eventually, Precious Metals will regain the momentum.
As for Rosie, well, yes. There will be more turbelence and noise in 2011. But more money printing is guaranteed; it is the only way to plug the unfunded deficits. So wheter it's the Bernank or someone else, the debt will continue to get monetized in 2011 because it has too.....
Which, of course, means one must buy the 10-15% pullbacks. Because at those inflection points, it's only a matter of time for the flood of yet more liquidity. And treaury bonds? You continue to short heavily anytime the 10y hits 3% or under because the risk-full Treasury bonds are the largest sucker long bet this decade, which has surpassed tech stocks in 2000/housing in 2007/and every other massive bubble. It's the mother of all bubbles and Rosie is a fool to believe otherwise.
Despite all the bearish equity calls in ZH land, the best you'll see is a significant pullback--only to be shortlived, as money gets printed to beyond infinity.
Good luck, boys.
Very well written. The only part I would argue is that we won't see a "significant pull back" of "10-15%". For reasons you stated, I don't think we can see more than a 5-7% pullback. But whatever pullback transpires, you are very spot on, it will be short-lived.
LOL the sunshine and lollypop brigades are out in full force today! Harry with his sub $300 gold, and his rockin company which exists only in his mind. And none of these clowns, Harry, Robo, Gloomboom, own any of the crap they talk all day about at all, guaranteed.
Robo's getting ready to join me on the
dark side.
Guess what? Neither of you know
what you're talking about. I love to
see guys like you in ascendency here.
You and 6 string....sheepdog, he
be okay.
Yes Tyler, please desist from your bond bull crap. There can be no lasting rally in bonds when the USA is systemically bankrupt. Stop losing money Tyler.
Unless the climactic destruction of the bond market occurs, you can bet, IMHO, on a Treasury rally. Everyone keeps complaining that the Fed will print to infinity, and they will, and they are targeting the bonds. vigilantes or no, they will crush the treasury shorts at some point. Minerd is right that the downtrend in rates is as yet unbroken.
For now, enjoy the sugar high, but do remain hedged.
Been there. Done that. Can we get do overs?
Whaddaya think, Shanky? How's
1260 look for a down ride?
Rosie looked / sounded terrible on CNBC when he was guest host a day or two ago. Nothing in his comments would have led one to believe he had a handle on where things are and where they are going nor would have inspired one to give him money to manage. And not articulate at all.
Maybe just consistent with the "CNBC can do nothing right" view frequently espoused here.
Rosie is probably brilliant, but his models are based on the Housing Market and Employment as key factors in the performance of equities. Problem is, the economy has restructured, and corporations are now able to prosper with a poor housing market and 10% unemployment - those are now sunk costs and much less meaningful today.
Current earnings are unsustainable
without continuing "productivity"
improvements, and there aren't any.
You are absolutely correct. Rosie, and many here, use old models as a basis for their economic outlooks. The corporate structure has changed. They are more efficient with less workers. That's a reality. So while we may have 10% unemployment, corporations have become leaner and much, much more efficient. That leads to better equity performance as you stated.
Wanker, peak earnings are behind
us now. It's regression to the mean
time and it won't be pretty.
Harry is a smart man. Wish there was an unjunk feature :(
All this Doom and Gloom, day in and day out. Very unhealthy. How man of you became alcholics after Bernanke came to the rescue of our financial system? Yeah, it sucks being wrong.
2010 marks the year of the DEAD WRONG DOOMER.
All I got to say is... Be Careful. Don't turn into this guy (video below). He was a doomer that kept on waiting. Waiting. Waiting. Waiting and waiting... Nothing is coming!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWIenEil1fc
-Nothing is coming'!-
LOL exact same thing Tothis says all the time...you 5 are all the same person. Pathetic.
Sheepdog -one you stand with truth and honor. hat tip and bow to you.
The prevailing mood must be one of desperation among the Fiat ponzi clowns. Its all coming down, if the Chinese can be patient, so can we. I wish our country did not have to suffer meanwhile, but it will wake up many when the trucks dont come to walmart or the dollar becomes a useless rag.
Ok dipshit, riddle me this since your butt buddie Wanger runs everytime I ask the question. Give me ONE EXAMPLE of a market that has turned around on innovation or creation and not some sort of BAILOUT, or money borrowed at 0%???? Go ahead knock your fucking self out. Anybody can live on a credit card if the limit gets raised everytime you hit it. You and Wanger are very short sighted. I recommend you look beyond the mirage our Government has created and tell me how it will sustain itself once the money dries up. The way I see it is we will be 10x worse off because there will be nothing left when shit really hits the fan. You are living in the moment and the moment is on borrowed time. Real economies use to be rated by production and contribution not debt and obligation. It can't sustain itself, the rest of the world is on to us and once the Dollar loses its world currency status it will be a total checkmate courtesy of the FED and a bunch of pussy politicians that bought the farm from an ink covered madman that has been wrong about everything.
Isn't oil more important than these companies?
These citi guys make Rosie look bullish. See pragcap link below:
http://pragcap.com/if-past-is-prologue
SNIP>>
interesting analysis.
however as only one of the cited bear markets occurs in a deflationary environment (30's) one question that occurs re late thirties overlay: the drop from oct '07 to mar '09 is then supposed to be the whole (85% nominal, more real) decline from oct '29 to june '32 and the subsequent rally from mar '09 to, say, now (eighteen months later) is really the june '32 to late '36 rally? really?
eighteen months and not even a double now vs. four and a half years and up 4x? i still think this thing feels a lot more like the snap back bear market rally of oct '29 to mar '30, extended and increased in value (without altering the ultimate destination) by the invention of the modern central bank.
comments are spicy today. wrt Rosie, I dont get the sense as an asset manager rosie shorts stocks...Rosie has said for the past 2 years to buy bonds. both up in quality corporates(which have absolutely CRUSHED IT) and treasuries(which have done well too) and to be underweight stocks. yes he mocks stocks but i see it as his forum for mocking the manipualtion of the heavy hand. i'll be honest, I dont know how to think about the market anymore. it seems like a year ago or more every hot dog fund was buying interest rate caps and protecting inflation, then we traded deflation/double dip and they all got murdered. then when once we started getting scared out of our minds the market bot tail protection on everything going lower they get murdered again. well here we are...the longs are happy and feel vindicated and the bears or hedges are crushed and basically hopeless..in order for society to work due to the massive amount of debt we have accumulated, stocks need to go up. If wealth isnt created, and the pie doesnt expand perpetually, then we lose and the ponzi is over. we are all tied to it whether we like it or not and thats why 95% of the investment community wants/needs the market to go up. Amazingly the central bankers have done a fantastic job and while we are in a parabolic up trend now everyone thinks they are an expert in everything. how soon we forget...right around now, 2 years ago, the US busted the jewish treasury ponzi scheme.....and we have another one right in front of us....SPX = jewish treasuries...is it really going to go up every single day????????????
I'll be honest..I am confused. i wish i was investing better. i over hedge because i worry and what i worry about is whether or not this gigantic experiment is going to workout in the end. right now it seems to be working but what if it doesnt? at what cost have we mortgaged our way of life, our future and at this point the entire global system which only seems to intertwine itself in even more complex ways on a daily basis. ...the alarming levels of debt scare me..we are layering on top at an increasing rate. at some point, its just not gonna fly and confidence will be lost...kicking the can, melting stocks up, burning shorts, sapping vol from the market...ALL BRILLIANT for the short term...but where does that leave us in the long term...we have to deal with these massive imbalances at some point??? we can all pan bulls and bears all we want...to me that type of intellectual disagreement makes markets...not CEntral bankers running the show, monetizing debt, buying stocks and funding zombie entities...
lastly Harrywanger...your ground level data is inspriring...and good to hear..congrats...what type of biz are you running.
I'll be honest..I am confused. i wish i was investing better. i over hedge because i worry and what i worry about is whether or not this gigantic experiment is going to workout in the end. right now it seems to be working but what if it doesnt?
Should the grand experiment not work out in the end, you will only gain 100% if equities fall to zero--which in real terms won't be worth much given your profits will be in the local, worthless currency. It's just a guess, but I'm guessing gold does a lot better than the hedge short in this scenario.
I'm sure the experiment will end badly: but again, don't be too sure--too quick, Chile or Zimbabwe?
As for Rosie, of course, he's been right and very wrong. His erratic and uninspiring rudder is hardly one primed to pay for as he travels the world for all to hear his grand non-wisdom.
I think the logic behind Rosenberg's bearish calls has been perfectly sound . However he has obviously underestimated the powerful combination of QE speculation , POMO operations and chronic low volume . But I suppose if logic isn't profitable then it's not of much use is it ?
Hey. Thats twice now.
The Irish election probably won't be in January: the word is now February or March. I have a sneaking suspicion that it could be a few months more again. I'm pretty certain that the Spanish/Portuguese rollover will come first.