David Rosenberg On QE3 ETA

Tyler Durden's picture

As we wave goodbye to David Rosenberg, with his last free Breakfast with Dave issue coming out today, we present his most recent free thoughts on QE3.

QE3 WILL COME BUT NOT AS EARLY AS MR. MARKET WOULD LIKE

Portfolio managers as a group are running their funds overweight equities by an average of 67% relative to their typical benchmarks. And polls show that one-third of them believe QE3 is coming this summer. We already know that this Bernanke-led Fed is willing to be extremely aggressive, but as we saw in 2010, the hurdle is high for quantitative easing. We need (i) signs of a double-dip, (ii) a stock market correction of at least 15%, and (iii) deflation, not inflation. How on earth will the Fed be able to do anything at all by then if headline inflation is running north of 4% and the other central banks of the world are either snuggling policy or moving in that direction ? unless the central bank really wants to trash the dollar. We are certainly not inflationists and still see deflation in credit, real wages and housing prices.

Since the market will have a heart attack unless QE3 resumes on July 1, we tend to agree. July 2 would be quite a delay and certainly "not as early as Mr. Market would like." In the meantime expect a complete washout in all asset classes with an emphasis on commodities, which will allow the FOMC to push the reset button on inflationary expectations, and announce QE3 the very next day.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
baby_BLYTHE's picture

The Money Printer Will Print, That I am Sure

Dr. Richard Head's picture

looks like fed protest was not yesterday.  

jus_lite_reading's picture

The Chinese have turned away a ship from California/Tokyo because of dangerous levels of rediation!!

http://fiatsfire.blogspot.com/2011/03/from-strange-to-absurdly-bizarre-a...

AND THE CEO OF TEPCO HAS GONE MISSING!!!!!

Manthong's picture

Re: CEO,  TEPCO,  Oops.. Is there really only one honorable course of action?

Thomas's picture

Going for the stick save.

Henry Hub's picture

He is going to have a pretty serious stomach ache.

Milton Waddams's picture

From WaPo:

Tepco “is just too big to be accountable,” said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University Japan.

TBTBA is the new TBTF.

NotApplicable's picture

Which is quite the combination when you stop to think about it. The FUBAR has grown so large that it cannot be dealt with, yet we cannot allow it to fail, lest it take us down.

In other words, typical governed scenario outcome.

Robot Traders Mom's picture

Great analysis Blythe. I missed that in the article.

metastar's picture

Sounds like a Farber quote.

Clockwork Orange's picture

Was an exact Faber quote - from approx 2 weeks ago, Bloomberg interview.

Clockwork Orange's picture

Was an exact Faber quote - from approx 2 weeks ago, Bloomberg interview.

baby_BLYTHE's picture

Yes, It is a quote from Marc Faber. Exact quote CNBS Squak Box right after the Japan Tsunami:

"The Money Printer will continue to print, that I am sure"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1aGLLE6fwM

Marc Faber: "If you take a bearish view like me and you think everything will collapse and we will have WWIII...."

Steve LIESman response: "huah" "ah" "ehm"... "ugh"...

All the way to QE 18, bitchez!

MapleLeaf's picture

Faber couldn't say it better himself

SWRichmond's picture

I'm sure of it, too.  But this next time it could be because we demanded it.  "One mighty deflation to scare them all."  "Save us, Ben!"

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

We already had that.  One thing that always comes to mind when I hear the word deflation is that we had such a huge deflationary collapse that gold moved down.  They even got the dollar to go up a bit.

The big move down already happened.  Yes big money is still trying to move into mining shares and other ways to "own" PMs (SLW cough, cough), and people all around the world, as in the other side of the world (as well as here), are buying physical, but how leveraged can the system get?

There is no fundamental metric for economics.  They have all been toyed with.  How can someone chart supply/demand when P is a fallacious invention?  The Fed sets price.  There is no real price without them declaring it so.  Alchemy has taken a hold of the world, and this happened long ago.

The Fall of '08 mirrors the aftermath of the battle of Waterloo.  After the battle certain families (cough, Rotheschildes, cough) upon receiving the news lied of who won, crashing the British markets.  Those in the know picked up the assets for pennies on the pound.  I am not saying that there should not have been a deflationary case in the Fall of '08, but is it not history repeating itself knowing that Buffet placed billions in a nice position?  Did he know Tim and Ben would save him?  I think so.

Will there be more debt destruction?  Obviously.  The housing market is about to collapse on itself.  The real question is, how much longer will the Fed provide for bank assets?  And...how much longer will the dollar and all fiat be able to hold the weight of the world above the deep and dark abyss?

Unlawful Justice's picture

This Magic show is almost over. It becomes political suicide to propagate the inevitable.  Extend and pretend all you want D.C and cohort chairsatan, but confidence from the Vox populi must be restored at all cost.  All this trickery dies in soundless defiance by our silent non-participation, as hegemonic power is reduced by brutal reality.  This is the next chapter in Hope and Tragedy.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

Looks that way to me.  I don't think there is a very big constituency for deflation.

Lost My Shorts's picture

Whenever everyone is sure something will happen, it won't happen.  (So goes the conventional wisdom around here.)  Everyone is sure the equity market will have a "heart attack" without QE3.  Everyone.  Totally.  Sure.  That means stocks will rise through the summer, right?

Horatio Beanblower's picture

If/When commodities get hosed, it will be interesting to see the divergence in the paper and physical markets for gold and silver.

TwoShortPlanks's picture

I am counting on exactly that, AND, no QE3 courtesy of Ching-Chong Chinaman.

painequalschange's picture

Not a word today on "Stand For Delivery" in silver?

I'm talking about standfordelivery.com

 

Horatio Beanblower's picture

Correct, jlr.  Ounce by ounce; brick by brick.

snakeboat's picture

Quick question for y'all... do you prefer coins or bars?  Do ya go fer bars for bigger purchases?  Lots of coins for trading once the SHTF or bars for reconverting to currency during the fall to pay for day to day shite?  I'm thinking a combo is good.

And why are coins like $3-5 over spot per?

Devore's picture

Because they're pretty.

GoinFawr's picture

I love your poetry Mr. Blake

"...Every night, and every morn, some to misery are born. Every morn, and every night, some are born to sweet delight. Some are born to sweet delight, some are born to endless night..."

Troll Magnet's picture

dude, stormfront.org is ---> way.

jkruffin's picture

I encourage everyone, to take the 2 or 3 minutes it takes, and write your folks in Congress and stop this QE experiment. Otherwise, we will all pay the price.  QE3 needs to be blocked permanently, and use other measures used to cure the ailments.  The other measures are slower, but QE is only working for the rich elite.

Ivanovich's picture

Sure, like that does anything these days.

WakeUpPeeeeeople's picture

You might try including a watermark of a guillotine or maybe one of those pics of Mussolini swinging

Long-John-Silver's picture

It will not do any good. Congress has become irrelevant as can now been seen by a Dictatorial President that no longer consults congress even in the process of starting a war. He has his Tsar's controlling the helm of government by way of Government Agencies such as the EPA and Federal Judges that can and do strike down any legislation coming out of congress. The USA as a Republic is gone forever. We have become a Banana Oligarch.

jkruffin's picture

You don't know until you speak up....the more the better.

Long-John-Silver's picture

What do you think caused the TEA party? I remember when they simply turned off the phone system and ignored even postal service delivered letters. No, we're done, The Republic is finished. When they crash the US Dollar; States will simply secede and ignore Washington D.C.

ebworthen's picture

Exactly - but the States will have a hard time letting go of the Federal teat.

Long-John-Silver's picture

Worthless US Dollars = dry teat.

Temporis's picture

I look forward to that day.

I say Texas goes first, followed by Arizona, Utah, and Montana.

 

Hell Utah is already trying to pass a law so gold and silver could be used as legal tender.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/305062

 

jus_lite_reading's picture

Its almost a done deal in VA..... next up, Vermont. Once Vermont goes, its game over for the banksters.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

My supposed Senator, Sherrod Brown, received 2,000 phone calls, email, and visits a day with 95% of them AGAINST TARP - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Economic_Stabilization_Act_of_2008

Just take a wild fucking case as to which way he voted, along with Senator Voinovich? 

Representative democracy doesn't exists and neither does our Republic. 

Voluntary Exchange's picture

+534 or +540 (depending on how you define Congress)

So did the other congressional members!  And we saw what happened. The whole system is just for show, and to pretend you matter so you will keep feeding them. Banker bailouts, and a mad rush by the bankers to bonus out the cash without any care for their stock holders - you think they know something? Money now looked a lot better to them than money later. Just like when they are the first ones out of Japan. You can clearly see what they "trust" in, and where their priorities are.

rosiescenario's picture

Gubbamint by and for the special interest groups...for example, Monsanto has a private meeting with Obuma, and 2 days later, the USDA gives unregulated, blanket approval for Monsnato's GMO RoundUp Ready alfalfa, despite all the warnings and testimony....just one more recent example of who really runs the show.

magis00's picture

Dr. Richard Head - pleased to hear from a fellow Ohioioan(ae?).

Ray1968's picture

Permit me to issue and control the money of the nation and I care not who makes its laws

 

That's all you need to know.

Fearless Rick's picture

Moron. You probably think voting matters, too.

Truthiness's picture

I think we've got a loooong way to go before we will become a "banana oligarch" - get outside and walk around. Plenty of people going about their business, raising their families, oworking hard and enjoying life without obsessing over the what "leaders" are doing...

Voluntary Exchange's picture

If they can get together and stop feeding the beasts we got a chance.  We need our own new kind of "Berlin Wall" moment and this time take Jefferson's words to heart and inisist that everything must be done based on CONSENT (that means voluntary -  or I "buy" from someone else and you don't get to shoot me because I'm not your "customer" anymore)! Then the world will finally have an America they can look up to again instead of running for cover as the drone bombs drop, or having all their drinking water and utilities, and major industry bought pennies on the dollar while their own "government" leaders retire to the Bahamas. Then we might finally see our statist nightmares change into a meaningful future.