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David Rosenberg On Today's Straight Line Ramp To 1,000

Tyler Durden's picture





 

From David Rosenberg:

"The government has its hands in 40% of the economy and when public sector officials can influence how banks can value their assets, how mortgage servicers should be doing their business, who shall fail in the financial industry and who shall not; and when we have a central bank that is not just the lender but the market of last resort, even for RVs, and a government willing to run up its deficit to levels that would have made FDR blush, then perhaps we can end up seeing a recovery
occur sooner than we had thought."

And below is the market rewarding central planning:

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Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:08 | Link to Comment eroc66
eroc66's picture

When I was a kid I always wanted to be an astronaut!  Now all I have to do is strap onto the levered ETF and away I go! Lol

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:46 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 16:16 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:26 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

You're seriously deluded.

 

If the food, beer and entertainment distribution system breaks down, then there will be unrest and upheaval, but it won't be 'unbelievable'.

 

For it to be unbelievable - You need 50% of the population starving before there's mass violence.  We are a loooong way off (hopefully centuries).

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:05 | Link to Comment texpat
texpat's picture

"...and, it's gone!"

apparently, yes, yes it can.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:06 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 17:08 | Link to Comment Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

In the last 1+ year, the $USD has been in a tight -0.98 correlation with the equities. IF you think the $US can stay above support while the market hits the stratosphere, then yes, you are right. But the deputy Premier of China visited the White House days before our very large T auction series began. I don't think they agreed to tank the $US.
Something has to give, and it's going to be the equity market that gets sacrificed to appease the foreign-holders-of-US-debt-gods...

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 20:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:30 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

"...who says you can't have this kind of illiquid market run ever higher?"

 

A bunch of fund managers who finally decide "Well, looks like it's about time to start selling this rally".

 

GS et. al. won't fight them, because then they'll be left holding the bag with the retail investor.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:47 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 16:59 | Link to Comment speculator
speculator's picture

This is exactly the kind of bear capitulation you need for a top: "the market is rigged, so you may as well sit it out or play along."

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:26 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:54 | Link to Comment molecool
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Fruffing
Fruffing's picture

Doubleplus good, Winston.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Eagle
Eagle's picture

Never I have seen such utter mass delusion. "Normally rational" people losing all reason and common sense. It is mind boggling scary to stand back and witness. 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Eagle
Eagle's picture

Follow up... In all my years, I've seen so many people just wanting to be deceived, just wanting hear and believe lies, in the markets, in politics...

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

this market is like Mexican standoff, and no one wants to pull the trigger first ... but eventually someone will when it looses all the patience .... and then shit will hit the fan .... 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Bryan
Bryan's picture

Geez, this is sounding almost 'biblical"... Sorry to inject religion into it, but read 2 Tim 4:3:

"For the time will come when men will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear."

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 20:20 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:19 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

""Normally rational" people losing all reason and common sense."

 

Such is the way of easy money.  Don't say I didn't warn you.

 

Got oil?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:13 | Link to Comment DebtorShredder
DebtorShredder's picture

Did somone sell a huge up and out on S&P 1000?

 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Mos
Mos's picture

Some little voice inside of me is telling me this won't end well.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Eagle
Eagle's picture

LOL! This is like watching a steam furnace pressure gage with the needle being pegged WAY PAST the red danger zone. 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:25 | Link to Comment glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

It's Bernanke's face plopped on what was a portrait of Mao, it looks like it even has Mao's hair. It's genius.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:00 | Link to Comment assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

Awesome avatar!!!

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:20 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I am more frightened now than ever.  Not of my wealth, it is protected.  But for society.  All this cheap money is going to lead us to a far worse place than a little deflation would have.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:14 | Link to Comment ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

This is fucking nuts. 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:16 | Link to Comment ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

So it's been so bad so long that the unemployed are dropping off the double extended benefits curve.

And that's a good thing how?

Oh yes - the BS stat looks better.  Don't' hafta count 'em they ain't a concern.

 

Pete

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:23 | Link to Comment PragmaticIdealist
PragmaticIdealist's picture

Next stop -- FULL EMPLOYMENT~~~

Definitely bullish.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:45 | Link to Comment ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

How is that good - simple - more people to rely on SOCIAL SERVICES. O is pumping his numbers via fucking everyone out of a job. That is really fucking good for the socialists. as for the rest of us Americans, we're fucked.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Will Profit
Will Profit's picture

Rosenberg summed it up beautifully. 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 17:03 | Link to Comment speculator
speculator's picture

What's up with 2 Clark Gables on one ZH? Do we need to duel or something?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:21 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Rex Crotch
Rex Crotch's picture

I went short a few months ago and am still feeling the pain. All my puts on Vornado and Simon Prop got crushed. Everyone seems to think the shit will hit the proverbial fan in the fall. I'm staying ~95% in cash for now until we start to see the market tank. It has kept going higher and higher evn though we will be at 20% unemployment in no time, 30% revenue declines for a majority of large companies, etc.

 

 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:44 | Link to Comment IE
IE's picture

Me too, crotch... about 10% in ultrashorts, and the rest in cash.  I'm not too worried about it right now.  I was short last year April - July, and it was painful then too.  But I got over it in the late fall... so damn the torpedos!

This could actually be the Inverse ETF capitulation that everyone's been talking about/predicting.  It was practically advertised that you had to be out of them by August ... so that's why I'm not!

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:20 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

like any good drug addict knows, the 1st hit makes you feel incredible, eventually u need multiple hits just to function, then in the absence of a very painful withdrawal, you just die.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:16 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:21 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:21 | Link to Comment D.O.D.
D.O.D.'s picture

Folks, the world is not going to end, the western paradigm will live on....in China... and we will begin a new manufacturing based ecconomy to provide them with the goods they need to live the good life... that is so bullish if you don't see it, well, you must not work for the gov't....

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:26 | Link to Comment DebtorShredder
DebtorShredder's picture

Higher prices discourages buying.

Ask Tim Geithner's realtor.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Danz Gambit
Danz Gambit's picture

Where did the 23 trillion come from? Ingenuity and hard work? Or was it borrowed, from our children and grandchildren, or was it printed out of thin air?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

I agree, can't fight the tape.  However, the reluctance to allow the market to naturally pull back say more than 20 S&P points does not bode well for this move or the market as a whole.  What happens when it does really sell off, will the other $23 trillion just come flying in?

I once heard a Japanese guy talk about how markets are like earthquakes, the longer you go without little tremors the more likely it is the next one will be a doozy.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:08 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:26 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Is this bear capitulation day? It's starting to feel that way.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:56 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Mos
Mos's picture

To the moon Alice!

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:12 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Eagle
Eagle's picture

Well yes, it's very chancy betting against further insanity in the short run.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

An up market is supposed to correlate to up consumer confidence which is supposed to lead to up retail sales and level of debt.

Now I've got it.  We haven't been going through a credit/solvency bust, we have been going through a liquidity and confidence crisis!

Pump up the prop desk volume, commodities and what ever else needs a pump and if confidence does not respond, rinse and repeat.

 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:26 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

"We haven't been going through a credit/solvency bust, we have been going through a liquidity and confidence crisis!"

 

That's what Bernanke would believe.  That is why he is flooding the economy with cheap money.  I his mind there are no structural problems, just liquidity problems.

This is going to end up very badly.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Nathan Smith
Nathan Smith's picture

It's too bad they don't list options for this company.  I would love to get some ridiculous OTM puts and buy a couple hundred of them.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Eagle
Eagle's picture

"It's different this time"

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:34 | Link to Comment GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

Perhaps what is called for is rapid irrational action. The "When in Rome" approach to the market.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Pizza Delivery Man
Pizza Delivery Man's picture

Lets see how the auction goes.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:34 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

As the government why would you want everybody chasing stocks when you need to sell a ton of debt?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Steak
Steak's picture

I would love, LOVE, to see the correlations between GDP, purchasing power and unemployment.  I have a strong feeling there will be a big NEGATIVE correlation.  Last I heard the Fed's mandate was price stability and full employment, yet they seem freakishly obsessed with the GDP print. 

We have asshole ivory tower bureaucrats debating about squiggly lines that have a passing relationship with their actual mandates.  Isn't the whole concept of a jobless recovery oxymoronic to the Fed's mandate for full employment?  What preytell is actually recovering besides the previously mentioned squiggly lines?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:38 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Eagle
Eagle's picture

The masters of the universe have learned basically nothing. So "the lesson" will be repeated again.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:39 | Link to Comment GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

I thought the end would come when Skynet is switched into Sell Mode.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:51 | Link to Comment mule65
mule65's picture

Always tomorrow... tomorrow... tomorrow...

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:40 | Link to Comment ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

No way to know how many of you might also read The Automatic Earth, but stoneleigh in particular - without specific dates and numbers - essentially "predicted" this behavior and said in not so many words that we would probably see (unbelievable) yearly highs in late summer and then look out below in the fall.  Many others have echoed that in not so many words.

 
So, I think this is just all part of it as maddening as it is.  Using stoneleigh's way with words I pretty much manage my angst as the S&P probably will blast through 1,000 and the DOW through 10,000.  Oh look the NAS blasted through 2,000.  Game on.

 
Pete

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:00 | Link to Comment mcgowanmc
mcgowanmc's picture

Deflation is kicking in with a vengeance and the PTB fear this like the Angel of Death.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 21:05 | Link to Comment Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

"If you ban all ultra-short & short ETFs what do you get???"

 

You get closer to Zero Hedge(s).

 

On a long enough timeline the survival rate of every Ultrashort drops to zero.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Steak
Steak's picture

And another totally random observation.  We have this intl ETF that has been ramping up on the risk trade.  Its pretty illiquid.  So as we've been exiting the position these past couple weeks here is what I've seen.

I've done all the sells with limits.  The last couple weeks even tho our sells made up for the bulk of the volume we kept catching higher bids.  This week when selling the ETF is still up for the day but has been hitting the limits on these sell orders, and I sometimes have had to adjust it lower to fill the order.  Moral of the story (touched on by all the smart observers above): there is a bid on this market, but its an increasingly weaker one.

Happy hunting y'all, things are really getting interesting.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:09 | Link to Comment KidDynamite
KidDynamite's picture

these stock moves are being driven by speculators. we NEED to put a stop to it - it's so unfair that speculators are driving the price up and hurting everyone

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:10 | Link to Comment KidDynamite
KidDynamite's picture

oh crap - sorry - i forgot, speculation ramping prices higher is good in SOME assets... like stocks, and housing... but if it happens in oil, we need to change the rules.

 

and don't you DARE speculate that stocks are going down - if you evil short sellers drive the prices of stocks down one more time, we'll lock you up.

 

/sarcasm

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 13:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

AP- "The Labor Department said new claims for unemployment aid increased by 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 584,000. That's above analysts' estimates of 570,000."

"Overall number dropped on fewer people eligible for benefits."

YEAH, green shoots!, 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:52 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Double dip recession fears as bears get smashed and enter the poor house alongside all the longs from the last decade. ;-)

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:50 | Link to Comment Neophiliac
Neophiliac's picture

This continues to be driven by junk. Witness the narrowing spread between the yields on the likes of HYG and BND. It's getting silly - you'd think that all of the holdings of HY funds are due for a massive ratings upgrade. There is just no way to rationalize it.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 13:07 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 16:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:57 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Anonymous is for wimps. ;-)

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 13:13 | Link to Comment bbtrader
bbtrader's picture

finally some gets it right...and there is a common technical belief that goes, if there is a conflict about market direction ('wall of worry'), the dominant trend will continue to prevail, so as long as traders try to short this market, they will lose

the markets are trading purely on technicals, so watch the S&P 500 at around 1010-1015, that's about 38% retracement of the Oct 2007 - March 2009 drop, if it's going to drop from anywhere it's that level

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 14:47 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Lots of charts looking like this lately.  Low volume, floating higher.  I call it the wisp of smoke formation.

They usually end badly but picking when they end ......

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Hondo
Hondo's picture

Well, just remember how other countries stock markets and economies have performed when their governments have been involved to that extent in the markets.  Initially things seem good as everyone thinks they are the one who will benefit.....eventually it destroys the system so that no one benefits except those in power.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Neophiliac
Neophiliac's picture

By the way, it's gone past the short squeeze, I think. Last week, TD posted amounts of short interest, with breakdown by sector. IIRC, materials, and utilities were among sectors with basically negligible short interest remaining. Well, today, materials is up 4%+ and utilities are up just shy of 2%.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:53 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
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