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When I was a kid I always wanted to be an astronaut! Now all I have to do is strap onto the levered ETF and away I go! Lol
Are you sure you are not a deep sea diver now ?
This recent rally reminds me of the Ken Carter stunt.
Guys.. you CANNOT short this market. Please, please, stop. If you're like me, you've lost THOUSANDS of dollars staying short. I've made a fair amount just buying calls on the worst plays (XOM this morning, for instance). These things are junkers, but are being entirely propelled upward on low volume bait and switch HFT, where essentially, anytime one of these major names drops a few percent on the day, the short interest is enough to EASILY squeeze the stock RIGHT back up. I bet we end the day POSITIVE on XOM. Once volume falls off at 10:30, it's up up and away from there.
And to add to this, do you guys think the GDP tomorrow will be good? Wrong. IT WILL BE AMAZING. Why? Because it can be. For all of you who really are thinking we will retest March lows (like I have thought for months now) consider this: what would be the state of turmoil that would result from such market action? Do you really think anyone in power wants to see open riots and anarchy in the streets? Because that, folks, is what will happen, if we retest those lows. The whole shit will go haywire. They have propped up the market for this long, and I don't see any reason for it to ever stop. It is in the best interests of the politicians for the stock market to be high, and anyone who tells you otherwise is just losing money. I've lost an ungodly amount of cash, but once you realize that you are fighting not only the financial elite, but the intellectual elite as well, you begin to understand the repercussions of going against the grain. I'm fairly sure the demographic of the bear camp stands as a bunch of cutting edge, younger, rational people who see through the bullshit and feel they know what is right, ie, that no reasoning exists for such valuations. This isn't about being right, or inflating some sort of egotistical fantasy about what you know should be or what isn't possible. Anything is possible. With a short interest of 1% on any of these large companies there is enough cherry picking volume to artificially ramp up any of these stocks heavily throughout the day. All it takes is one sucker nervous and eager to get a fill to bid up the stock with these order flashings. Bait and switch. Stocks higher. It doesn't matter that no one buys it, and believe me, NO ONE buys it. Being short is no longer the intellectual thing to do, because everyone knows this market isn't worth shit. But you really can't fight it.
GDP will be amazing -- I think you are spot on in that prediction - the f'ing financial media are shouting from the hill tops that the 500k job numbers are great news -- with GS upgrading GE etc etc.... but when this thing blows up it will be brutal ... but the question is when next week next month 2011...
I've been telling people the same thing - the GDP for the quarter might even be slightly to the positive. One thing for sure is that it'll be 'better than expected'.
And don't expect a crash soon - there's never been one in August.
Reality will catch up sometime or later my dear friend. As Karl often says "Math is NEVER wrong".
Another Karl (Marx that is) also used math to firm up logic of his economic argument, which theoretically was close to flawless. The methodology he developed, however, was heavily reliant on an extrenious factor mingling with economic players of his and all other times - ideology. An ideology can be instrumental in changing not only a "normal course" of an economy, but also in decisively impacting, conditioning, skewing and squeezing whatever we could define as a "normal" unadulterated course of the markets. Obama's Ideology of Hope may be the most audacious recent - say, after 1917 - attempt to direct an economy into a politically desired direction, but is certainly not the first one. Neither it is the most thotough, or best scripted, or even the best thought through.. . [ref. for instance "Das Prinzip Hoffnung" (Principle of Hope) by Ernst Bloch]
Right about there never being a crash in August...just lots of tops. pls see Aug.1987.
"Do you really think anyone in power wants to see open riots and anarchy in the streets? Because that, folks, is what will happen, if we retest those lows."
-Utter BS. but i agree with the general gist of what youre saying. But dont think we cant retest the lows without the world ending. It will happen with a whimper , just a matter of time , perhaps alot of time....
I didn't say the world would end. I'm saying there will be unbelievable unrest and political upheaval if the market falls back down.
You're seriously deluded.
If the food, beer and entertainment distribution system breaks down, then there will be unrest and upheaval, but it won't be 'unbelievable'.
For it to be unbelievable - You need 50% of the population starving before there's mass violence. We are a loooong way off (hopefully centuries).
Just remember: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
"...and, it's gone!"
apparently, yes, yes it can.
I think I posted that same quote on the old website...
...Back in May.
It's no longer irrational but in desperate need of Thorazine.
In the last 1+ year, the $USD has been in a tight -0.98 correlation with the equities. IF you think the $US can stay above support while the market hits the stratosphere, then yes, you are right. But the deputy Premier of China visited the White House days before our very large T auction series began. I don't think they agreed to tank the $US.
Something has to give, and it's going to be the equity market that gets sacrificed to appease the foreign-holders-of-US-debt-gods...
Amen, brother, amen.
John Templeton wouldd read all of these comments, eexits every long now, aand short 100%. The bears have beeen convinced to be long. That's all the market needs for the next wave down.
I would agree with you, except I think that times have changed radically since the 1930s, '80s, and '90s. People try to fool themselves into thinking the game is always the same, that it is simply the underlying human emotions that shape this market dynamic. The entire playing field has shifted. Unless people see a dramatic reason to go short, who says you can't have this kind of illiquid market run ever higher? Technology exists that makes a move like this very much possible. Markets can be controlled through futures trading and programmed algorithms. They didn't have this kind of botnet in the 80s or 90s, and I think this is the first time these things have been operating on such a grand scale. This is all about perception control. It's pretty obvious that the numbers being reported have no basis in fact or reality. But does that really matter? By the time this is all over, the banks will have raised enough money from the market to have fixed their balance sheets, scalping pennies off of billions of trades, and all will be well again. Until the next time the shit hits the fan. But I don't expect the shit to hit the fan again for a long long time.
"...who says you can't have this kind of illiquid market run ever higher?"
A bunch of fund managers who finally decide "Well, looks like it's about time to start selling this rally".
GS et. al. won't fight them, because then they'll be left holding the bag with the retail investor.
Yeah, well, let me know when one of them decides to finally pull the trigger. Meanwhile, XOM turned positive on the day.
Also, I think you're missing the point. Unless there is one gigantic wave of coordinated selling, it is very easy to continually squeeze the market higher so long as only a few people are selling off at once. Anytime a stock ticks down, the short % immediately gets squeezed back up on low volume. That is the beauty of algorithmic HFT.
This is exactly the kind of bear capitulation you need for a top: "the market is rigged, so you may as well sit it out or play along."
Algo HFT can go wrong sometime and then feed on itself.
It seems that this morning it was one of these times, or so the market ticker says in his 6 minutes today.
Agreed, this week I dumped all my shorts on the drop. I'll have a few longs when I see good prices, but I will certainly be watching for serious shit later. The more of us shorts that move long, the more chance of the drop. With zero sellers, GS and company will dump the market.
What if this has nothing to do with money, and collectively the bankers took over industries by purchasing an aggregate 51% of shares between them with our tax payer funds? Then they would own all publicly listed companies and be everyone's boss.
Who is buying these shares?
Doubleplus good, Winston.
Much love for Orwell
Never I have seen such utter mass delusion. "Normally rational" people losing all reason and common sense. It is mind boggling scary to stand back and witness.
Follow up... In all my years, I've seen so many people just wanting to be deceived, just wanting hear and believe lies, in the markets, in politics...
this market is like Mexican standoff, and no one wants to pull the trigger first ... but eventually someone will when it looses all the patience .... and then shit will hit the fan ....
Geez, this is sounding almost 'biblical"... Sorry to inject religion into it, but read 2 Tim 4:3:
"For the time will come when men will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear."
Love it! Was CNBC around back then? :)
""Normally rational" people losing all reason and common sense."
Such is the way of easy money. Don't say I didn't warn you.
Did somone sell a huge up and out on S&P 1000?
Some little voice inside of me is telling me this won't end well.
LOL! This is like watching a steam furnace pressure gage with the needle being pegged WAY PAST the red danger zone.
I had to look at your avatar twice. At first I thought it was Chairman Mao. It's Ben. Not only do they think alike, they look alike!
It's Bernanke's face plopped on what was a portrait of Mao, it looks like it even has Mao's hair. It's genius.
Love that avatar. Went looking for it on the web, but didn't find it. Found this, though, which is rather funny in a truthful sort of way:
I am more frightened now than ever. Not of my wealth, it is protected. But for society. All this cheap money is going to lead us to a far worse place than a little deflation would have.
This is fucking nuts.
So it's been so bad so long that the unemployed are dropping off the double extended benefits curve.
And that's a good thing how?
Oh yes - the BS stat looks better. Don't' hafta count 'em they ain't a concern.
Next stop -- FULL EMPLOYMENT~~~
You are correct. With the "discouraged worker" manipulated out of the figures as they are, when 100% of Americans are unemployed, but 100% are so discouraged that they are no longer looking for work, unemployment will be zero! The ultimate in book cooking.
How is that good - simple - more people to rely on SOCIAL SERVICES. O is pumping his numbers via fucking everyone out of a job. That is really fucking good for the socialists. as for the rest of us Americans, we're fucked.
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