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David Rosenberg On Today's Straight Line Ramp To 1,000

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From David Rosenberg:

"The government has its hands in 40% of the economy and when public sector officials can influence how banks can value their assets, how mortgage servicers should be doing their business, who shall fail in the financial industry and who shall not; and when we have a central bank that is not just the lender but the market of last resort, even for RVs, and a government willing to run up its deficit to levels that would have made FDR blush, then perhaps we can end up seeing a recovery
occur sooner than we had thought."

And below is the market rewarding central planning:


 

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Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:08 | 19197 eroc66
eroc66's picture

When I was a kid I always wanted to be an astronaut!  Now all I have to do is strap onto the levered ETF and away I go! Lol

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:25 | 19226 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Are you sure you are not a deep sea diver now ?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:14 | 19344 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This recent rally reminds me of the Ken Carter stunt.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=103ed5f446

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:46 | 19277 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Guys.. you CANNOT short this market. Please, please, stop. If you're like me, you've lost THOUSANDS of dollars staying short. I've made a fair amount just buying calls on the worst plays (XOM this morning, for instance). These things are junkers, but are being entirely propelled upward on low volume bait and switch HFT, where essentially, anytime one of these major names drops a few percent on the day, the short interest is enough to EASILY squeeze the stock RIGHT back up. I bet we end the day POSITIVE on XOM. Once volume falls off at 10:30, it's up up and away from there.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:57 | 19296 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

And to add to this, do you guys think the GDP tomorrow will be good? Wrong. IT WILL BE AMAZING. Why? Because it can be. For all of you who really are thinking we will retest March lows (like I have thought for months now) consider this: what would be the state of turmoil that would result from such market action? Do you really think anyone in power wants to see open riots and anarchy in the streets? Because that, folks, is what will happen, if we retest those lows. The whole shit will go haywire. They have propped up the market for this long, and I don't see any reason for it to ever stop. It is in the best interests of the politicians for the stock market to be high, and anyone who tells you otherwise is just losing money. I've lost an ungodly amount of cash, but once you realize that you are fighting not only the financial elite, but the intellectual elite as well, you begin to understand the repercussions of going against the grain. I'm fairly sure the demographic of the bear camp stands as a bunch of cutting edge, younger, rational people who see through the bullshit and feel they know what is right, ie, that no reasoning exists for such valuations. This isn't about being right, or inflating some sort of egotistical fantasy about what you know should be or what isn't possible. Anything is possible. With a short interest of 1% on any of these large companies there is enough cherry picking volume to artificially ramp up any of these stocks heavily throughout the day. All it takes is one sucker nervous and eager to get a fill to bid up the stock with these order flashings. Bait and switch. Stocks higher. It doesn't matter that no one buys it, and believe me, NO ONE buys it. Being short is no longer the intellectual thing to do, because everyone knows this market isn't worth shit. But you really can't fight it.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:03 | 19315 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

GDP will be amazing -- I think you are spot on in that prediction - the f'ing financial media are shouting from the hill tops that the 500k job numbers are great news -- with GS upgrading GE etc etc.... but when this thing blows up it will be brutal ... but the question is when next week next month 2011...

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 13:19 | 19556 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I've been telling people the same thing - the GDP for the quarter might even be slightly to the positive. One thing for sure is that it'll be 'better than expected'.

And don't expect a crash soon - there's never been one in August.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 15:07 | 19724 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Reality will catch up sometime or later my dear friend. As Karl often says "Math is NEVER wrong".

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 16:59 | 19881 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Another Karl (Marx that is) also used math to firm up logic of his economic argument, which theoretically was close to flawless. The methodology he developed, however, was heavily reliant on an extrenious factor mingling with economic players of his and all other times - ideology. An ideology can be instrumental in changing not only a "normal course" of an economy, but also in decisively impacting, conditioning, skewing and squeezing whatever we could define as a "normal" unadulterated course of the markets. Obama's Ideology of Hope may be the most audacious recent - say, after 1917 - attempt to direct an economy into a politically desired direction, but is certainly not the first one. Neither it is the most thotough, or best scripted, or even the best thought through.. . [ref. for instance "Das Prinzip Hoffnung" (Principle of Hope) by Ernst Bloch]

Pacal

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 16:16 | 19826 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Right about there never being a crash in August...just lots of tops. pls see Aug.1987.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:09 | 19334 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"Do you really think anyone in power wants to see open riots and anarchy in the streets? Because that, folks, is what will happen, if we retest those lows."

-Utter BS. but i agree with the general gist of what youre saying. But dont think we cant retest the lows without the world ending. It will happen with a whimper , just a matter of time , perhaps alot of time....
Hello Kitty.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:29 | 19371 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I didn't say the world would end. I'm saying there will be unbelievable unrest and political upheaval if the market falls back down.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:26 | 19465 dnarby
dnarby's picture

You're seriously deluded.

 

If the food, beer and entertainment distribution system breaks down, then there will be unrest and upheaval, but it won't be 'unbelievable'.

 

For it to be unbelievable - You need 50% of the population starving before there's mass violence.  We are a loooong way off (hopefully centuries).

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:38 | 19381 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Just remember: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:05 | 19418 texpat
texpat's picture

"...and, it's gone!"

apparently, yes, yes it can.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:06 | 19422 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Good point.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:57 | 19517 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I think I posted that same quote on the old website...

...Back in May.

It's no longer irrational but in desperate need of Thorazine.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 17:08 | 19897 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

In the last 1+ year, the $USD has been in a tight -0.98 correlation with the equities. IF you think the $US can stay above support while the market hits the stratosphere, then yes, you are right. But the deputy Premier of China visited the White House days before our very large T auction series began. I don't think they agreed to tank the $US.
Something has to give, and it's going to be the equity market that gets sacrificed to appease the foreign-holders-of-US-debt-gods...

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 20:00 | 20120 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Amen, brother, amen.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:13 | 19342 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

John Templeton wouldd read all of these comments, eexits every long now, aand short 100%. The bears have beeen convinced to be long. That's all the market needs for the next wave down.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:20 | 19356 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I would agree with you, except I think that times have changed radically since the 1930s, '80s, and '90s. People try to fool themselves into thinking the game is always the same, that it is simply the underlying human emotions that shape this market dynamic. The entire playing field has shifted. Unless people see a dramatic reason to go short, who says you can't have this kind of illiquid market run ever higher? Technology exists that makes a move like this very much possible. Markets can be controlled through futures trading and programmed algorithms. They didn't have this kind of botnet in the 80s or 90s, and I think this is the first time these things have been operating on such a grand scale. This is all about perception control. It's pretty obvious that the numbers being reported have no basis in fact or reality. But does that really matter? By the time this is all over, the banks will have raised enough money from the market to have fixed their balance sheets, scalping pennies off of billions of trades, and all will be well again. Until the next time the shit hits the fan. But I don't expect the shit to hit the fan again for a long long time.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:30 | 19469 dnarby
dnarby's picture

"...who says you can't have this kind of illiquid market run ever higher?"

 

A bunch of fund managers who finally decide "Well, looks like it's about time to start selling this rally".

 

GS et. al. won't fight them, because then they'll be left holding the bag with the retail investor.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:47 | 19500 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yeah, well, let me know when one of them decides to finally pull the trigger. Meanwhile, XOM turned positive on the day.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:50 | 19506 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Also, I think you're missing the point. Unless there is one gigantic wave of coordinated selling, it is very easy to continually squeeze the market higher so long as only a few people are selling off at once. Anytime a stock ticks down, the short % immediately gets squeezed back up on low volume. That is the beauty of algorithmic HFT.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 16:59 | 19882 speculator
speculator's picture

This is exactly the kind of bear capitulation you need for a top: "the market is rigged, so you may as well sit it out or play along."

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 17:16 | 19910 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Algo HFT can go wrong sometime and then feed on itself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJcXX3U4oQs

It seems that this morning it was one of these times, or so the market ticker says in his 6 minutes today.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:26 | 19461 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Agreed, this week I dumped all my shorts on the drop. I'll have a few longs when I see good prices, but I will certainly be watching for serious shit later. The more of us shorts that move long, the more chance of the drop. With zero sellers, GS and company will dump the market.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:54 | 19289 molecool
Thu, 07/30/2009 - 17:19 | 19913 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Apocalypse Now-

What if this has nothing to do with money, and collectively the bankers took over industries by purchasing an aggregate 51% of shares between them with our tax payer funds? Then they would own all publicly listed companies and be everyone's boss.

Who is buying these shares?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:09 | 19198 Fruffing
Fruffing's picture

Doubleplus good, Winston.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:39 | 19382 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Much love for Orwell

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:09 | 19199 Eagle
Eagle's picture

Never I have seen such utter mass delusion. "Normally rational" people losing all reason and common sense. It is mind boggling scary to stand back and witness. 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:15 | 19208 Eagle
Eagle's picture

Follow up... In all my years, I've seen so many people just wanting to be deceived, just wanting hear and believe lies, in the markets, in politics...

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:25 | 19228 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

this market is like Mexican standoff, and no one wants to pull the trigger first ... but eventually someone will when it looses all the patience .... and then shit will hit the fan .... 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 14:06 | 19638 Bryan
Bryan's picture

Geez, this is sounding almost 'biblical"... Sorry to inject religion into it, but read 2 Tim 4:3:

"For the time will come when men will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear."

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 20:20 | 20134 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Love it! Was CNBC around back then? :)

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:19 | 19449 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

""Normally rational" people losing all reason and common sense."

 

Such is the way of easy money.  Don't say I didn't warn you.

 

Got oil?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:13 | 19205 DebtorShredder
DebtorShredder's picture

Did somone sell a huge up and out on S&P 1000?

 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:13 | 19206 Mos
Mos's picture

Some little voice inside of me is telling me this won't end well.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:17 | 19213 Eagle
Eagle's picture

LOL! This is like watching a steam furnace pressure gage with the needle being pegged WAY PAST the red danger zone. 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:57 | 19295 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I had to look at your avatar twice. At first I thought it was Chairman Mao. It's Ben. Not only do they think alike, they look alike!

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:25 | 19459 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

It's Bernanke's face plopped on what was a portrait of Mao, it looks like it even has Mao's hair. It's genius.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:00 | 19303 assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

Awesome avatar!!!

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:51 | 19398 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Love that avatar. Went looking for it on the web, but didn't find it. Found this, though, which is rather funny in a truthful sort of way:

http://blogfiles.wfmu.org/KF/2008/10/01/Bernanke.jpg

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:20 | 19450 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I am more frightened now than ever.  Not of my wealth, it is protected.  But for society.  All this cheap money is going to lead us to a far worse place than a little deflation would have.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:14 | 19207 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

This is fucking nuts. 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:16 | 19210 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

So it's been so bad so long that the unemployed are dropping off the double extended benefits curve.

And that's a good thing how?

Oh yes - the BS stat looks better.  Don't' hafta count 'em they ain't a concern.

 

Pete

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:23 | 19221 PragmaticIdealist
PragmaticIdealist's picture

Next stop -- FULL EMPLOYMENT~~~

Definitely bullish.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:48 | 19393 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You are correct. With the "discouraged worker" manipulated out of the figures as they are, when 100% of Americans are unemployed, but 100% are so discouraged that they are no longer looking for work, unemployment will be zero! The ultimate in book cooking.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:45 | 19275 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

How is that good - simple - more people to rely on SOCIAL SERVICES. O is pumping his numbers via fucking everyone out of a job. That is really fucking good for the socialists. as for the rest of us Americans, we're fucked.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:18 | 19214 Will Profit
Will Profit's picture

Rosenberg summed it up beautifully. 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:52 | 19286 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If it works for the Chinese then why not us?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:53 | 19400 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I thought he summed it up on mon.(end of recession)?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 17:03 | 19889 speculator
speculator's picture

What's up with 2 Clark Gables on one ZH? Do we need to duel or something?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:19 | 19215 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The final capitulation. What March was to the bulls, today is to the bears.

Time to get short. Finally.

(with a stop of course, as madness knows no bounds.)

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:21 | 19219 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I've been thinking that for a while - too long so that I have lost some serious dough for the record. However, I will say today does appear as if it finally could be a blow off top. If we don't hit 1000 though I will be disappointed...

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:29 | 19235 Rex Crotch
Rex Crotch's picture

I went short a few months ago and am still feeling the pain. All my puts on Vornado and Simon Prop got crushed. Everyone seems to think the shit will hit the proverbial fan in the fall. I'm staying ~95% in cash for now until we start to see the market tank. It has kept going higher and higher evn though we will be at 20% unemployment in no time, 30% revenue declines for a majority of large companies, etc.

 

 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:44 | 19272 IE
IE's picture

Me too, crotch... about 10% in ultrashorts, and the rest in cash.  I'm not too worried about it right now.  I was short last year April - July, and it was painful then too.  But I got over it in the late fall... so damn the torpedos!

This could actually be the Inverse ETF capitulation that everyone's been talking about/predicting.  It was practically advertised that you had to be out of them by August ... so that's why I'm not!

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:20 | 19217 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

like any good drug addict knows, the 1st hit makes you feel incredible, eventually u need multiple hits just to function, then in the absence of a very painful withdrawal, you just die.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:44 | 19271 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

or just be a functioning user

that is the hope

we are living the lie until the faux marks on the assets become reality again

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:16 | 19348 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The end is near! Abandon all hope those who go long.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:21 | 19451 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yep. Closer to the end than the beginning. It is interesting that money good Cal
munis are getting snapped up, driving yields lower. Tells me some smart $ ain't playin' anymore and headin' for the bunker.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:21 | 19218 D.O.D.
D.O.D.'s picture

Folks, the world is not going to end, the western paradigm will live on....in China... and we will begin a new manufacturing based ecconomy to provide them with the goods they need to live the good life... that is so bullish if you don't see it, well, you must not work for the gov't....

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:23 | 19220 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I have been following this thread for months and frankly Rosenberg should just admit he has been wrong. Plenty of people - try Michael Belkin - have called this beautifully for what it is - a pimped-out over-juiced rally fed by trillions of stimulus. Just because it is bullshit doesn't mean you can fight $23 trillion and remain standing. And guess what - the guys who have been right about the rally are saying we go WAY HIGHER.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:26 | 19231 DebtorShredder
DebtorShredder's picture

Higher prices discourages buying.

Ask Tim Geithner's realtor.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:30 | 19237 Danz Gambit
Danz Gambit's picture

Where did the 23 trillion come from? Ingenuity and hard work? Or was it borrowed, from our children and grandchildren, or was it printed out of thin air?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:00 | 19406 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It was printed from thin air and, effectively, borrowed from _your_ children and grandchildren. I don't have any. Thank you.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:00 | 19305 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

I agree, can't fight the tape.  However, the reluctance to allow the market to naturally pull back say more than 20 S&P points does not bode well for this move or the market as a whole.  What happens when it does really sell off, will the other $23 trillion just come flying in?

I once heard a Japanese guy talk about how markets are like earthquakes, the longer you go without little tremors the more likely it is the next one will be a doozy.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:08 | 19329 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

these way higher people are the same people that were wrong the whole way down and were saying sub prime was well contained, wouldn't affect the real economy, second half of 08 recovery. i guess they might be right sometime.....broken clock.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:25 | 19225 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Look out above!!

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:25 | 19229 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Liquidity is totally gone. No one is crazy enough to take the sell side at this point. Air pocket

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:43 | 19270 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Good point

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:26 | 19230 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Is this bear capitulation day? It's starting to feel that way.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:30 | 19239 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yes I am a bear and capitulating in the face of GS and their never end ramp on bad news and economics and bad fundamentals... since when does one of the biggest weights.. XOM issue drastic drop in profits and the market take offs like it has a rocket strapped to it? Only when the market is rigged to go up against that sort of news

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:56 | 19293 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Less bad is good and less good is good. Don't you understand? It's all good.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:30 | 19238 Mos
Mos's picture

To the moon Alice!

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:30 | 19240 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Two words... Irrational Exuberance... is back! TD, please bring back these words to life..

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:31 | 19242 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Dow 15,000 by the end of August!

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:51 | 19284 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

To infinity and beyond! Warp speed 10 heistmaster!

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:12 | 19341 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

But Mr. Secretary if I push these markets too hard in the condition they're in, they'll blow apart

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:31 | 19243 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"Never I have seen such utter mass delusion. "Normally rational" people losing all reason and common sense. It is mind boggling scary to stand back and witness."

And those who stay rational loses money.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:37 | 19257 Eagle
Eagle's picture

Well yes, it's very chancy betting against further insanity in the short run.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:32 | 19244 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

An up market is supposed to correlate to up consumer confidence which is supposed to lead to up retail sales and level of debt.

Now I've got it.  We haven't been going through a credit/solvency bust, we have been going through a liquidity and confidence crisis!

Pump up the prop desk volume, commodities and what ever else needs a pump and if confidence does not respond, rinse and repeat.

 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:26 | 19463 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

"We haven't been going through a credit/solvency bust, we have been going through a liquidity and confidence crisis!"

 

That's what Bernanke would believe.  That is why he is flooding the economy with cheap money.  I his mind there are no structural problems, just liquidity problems.

This is going to end up very badly.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:32 | 19245 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Let me say this before Robo enters the fray:

DDRX +12.5% in the first hour.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:23 | 19365 Nathan Smith
Nathan Smith's picture

It's too bad they don't list options for this company.  I would love to get some ridiculous OTM puts and buy a couple hundred of them.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:33 | 19246 Eagle
Eagle's picture

"It's different this time"

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:34 | 19249 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You and I, the little guy and the small firms are not the ones buying the junk, the CRE, the financials, the retailers and the insurers...It's funds, large ones, hedge and mutual, banks, quasi-banks, bank holding companies, State Street, and financials, insurers etc., who are doing the buying.

Incestuous, isn't it?

I can't see it stopping as this is rather like dancing while the music is playing. When one sells, the floor will fall out.' But they will never sell...they face no financial pressures from policy holders, mutual fund holders, pension funds or redemptions...not with a government lifeline

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:34 | 19250 GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

Perhaps what is called for is rapid irrational action. The "When in Rome" approach to the market.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:34 | 19251 Pizza Delivery Man
Pizza Delivery Man's picture

Lets see how the auction goes.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:34 | 19252 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

As the government why would you want everybody chasing stocks when you need to sell a ton of debt?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:37 | 19258 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Duh, I think they forgot that bit.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:07 | 19328 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Pump up stocks, send them crashing, engineer flight to the safety of government bonds, cover massive debt, breath sigh of relief as dollar crisis is avoided.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:11 | 19435 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

rinse, repeat

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:35 | 19253 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'm f*cked.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:01 | 19308 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

get out....cut losses. No shame in admitting defeat, live to fight another day

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:35 | 19254 Steak
Steak's picture

I would love, LOVE, to see the correlations between GDP, purchasing power and unemployment.  I have a strong feeling there will be a big NEGATIVE correlation.  Last I heard the Fed's mandate was price stability and full employment, yet they seem freakishly obsessed with the GDP print. 

We have asshole ivory tower bureaucrats debating about squiggly lines that have a passing relationship with their actual mandates.  Isn't the whole concept of a jobless recovery oxymoronic to the Fed's mandate for full employment?  What preytell is actually recovering besides the previously mentioned squiggly lines?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:35 | 19255 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Whenever I despair that they can pump it up forever, I remember that the unstable and flailing global finincial system has become a monstrous minefield of unprecendented breadth and density.

The fools believe that they are in control. They are not in control.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:38 | 19260 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

GS are in control and until they short it will keep going to the moon

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:41 | 19267 Eagle
Eagle's picture

The masters of the universe have learned basically nothing. So "the lesson" will be repeated again.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:39 | 19262 GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

I thought the end would come when Skynet is switched into Sell Mode.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:39 | 19263 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Well, as soon as got Obama's new approval rating, that were down, we just pay people to like us. You don't like me, I give you money, you still don't like me, I give you more money, you still don't like me, I TAKE IT ALL BACK AND CRASH IT.

Man, if I had the cash that the Fed is printing, I would buy stocks too, at least you own some type of depreciating asset, but with cash you just own some piece of worthless paper.

Zimbabwe, get out of the way, here we come, we want to be number one in everything....

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:15 | 19345 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

When you find yourself watching Ben and Tim on CNBC, hopping out of the turbo prop in Harare, on a mission to convince Mugabe US ZWD-Insanitybonds are a safe place to park your cash, that'll be the day the pin gets pulled on Goulmans' Stash

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:39 | 19264 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

this is a classic month end pump. Once it is over look out below. final capitulation right here. Watch for a reversal candle in the next few days.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:51 | 19285 mule65
mule65's picture

Always tomorrow... tomorrow... tomorrow...

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:40 | 19265 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Looks like Rosenberg is capitulating.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:17 | 19350 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yawn,...wake me when he's fully invested..

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:40 | 19266 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

No way to know how many of you might also read The Automatic Earth, but stoneleigh in particular - without specific dates and numbers - essentially "predicted" this behavior and said in not so many words that we would probably see (unbelievable) yearly highs in late summer and then look out below in the fall.  Many others have echoed that in not so many words.

 
So, I think this is just all part of it as maddening as it is.  Using stoneleigh's way with words I pretty much manage my angst as the S&P probably will blast through 1,000 and the DOW through 10,000.  Oh look the NAS blasted through 2,000.  Game on.

 
Pete

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:00 | 19302 mcgowanmc
mcgowanmc's picture

Deflation is kicking in with a vengeance and the PTB fear this like the Angel of Death.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:42 | 19268 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If you ban all ultra-short & short ETFs what do you get???

You get this, "Noone is allowed to leave the room, because noone is smarter then me" GS

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 21:05 | 20186 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

"If you ban all ultra-short & short ETFs what do you get???"

 

You get closer to Zero Hedge(s).

 

On a long enough timeline the survival rate of every Ultrashort drops to zero.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:44 | 19273 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

C turned negative, after being up 5+% in the first hour. Looks like another wave of the prefered/common 'arb' has covered. C will add an IT soon enough.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:44 | 19274 Steak
Steak's picture

And another totally random observation.  We have this intl ETF that has been ramping up on the risk trade.  Its pretty illiquid.  So as we've been exiting the position these past couple weeks here is what I've seen.

I've done all the sells with limits.  The last couple weeks even tho our sells made up for the bulk of the volume we kept catching higher bids.  This week when selling the ETF is still up for the day but has been hitting the limits on these sell orders, and I sometimes have had to adjust it lower to fill the order.  Moral of the story (touched on by all the smart observers above): there is a bid on this market, but its an increasingly weaker one.

Happy hunting y'all, things are really getting interesting.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:45 | 19276 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Should we say we are angry that the market is going up???

I would love to if it was for real, but I just f&*king hate it when someone makes a fool out of me.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:09 | 19333 KidDynamite
KidDynamite's picture

these stock moves are being driven by speculators. we NEED to put a stop to it - it's so unfair that speculators are driving the price up and hurting everyone

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:10 | 19336 KidDynamite
KidDynamite's picture

oh crap - sorry - i forgot, speculation ramping prices higher is good in SOME assets... like stocks, and housing... but if it happens in oil, we need to change the rules.

 

and don't you DARE speculate that stocks are going down - if you evil short sellers drive the prices of stocks down one more time, we'll lock you up.

 

/sarcasm

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 13:13 | 19548 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Why does anyone play this casino, which bears no relation to real assets? The best thing for the country is for everyone to pull all their money out of the stock market, and abandon the game. Otherwise, you keep supporting a systemic problem.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:48 | 19279 Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

AP- "The Labor Department said new claims for unemployment aid increased by 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 584,000. That's above analysts' estimates of 570,000."

"Overall number dropped on fewer people eligible for benefits."

YEAH, green shoots!, 

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:52 | 19280 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Double dip recession fears as bears get smashed and enter the poor house alongside all the longs from the last decade. ;-)

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:49 | 19281 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The bullish case waas laid out here
http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2009/07/case-for-v.html

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:09 | 19331 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

stop pushing your site, bullish case was first laid out by Dennis Kneale
CAPTCHA questions are totally ridiculous - require calculator to solve

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:50 | 19283 Neophiliac
Neophiliac's picture

This continues to be driven by junk. Witness the narrowing spread between the yields on the likes of HYG and BND. It's getting silly - you'd think that all of the holdings of HY funds are due for a massive ratings upgrade. There is just no way to rationalize it.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:54 | 19288 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This ramp-up won't stop until the shorts capitulate, and from what I read in the previous comments the shorts have not capitulated - they are just looking for their next buy-in point. When the shorts say (a) I will never short again or (b) I have no more money left to short that's when the market will roll over.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:57 | 19297 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I am, rather was a bear, but give up now.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:58 | 19298 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Why would you think that? The longs didn't capitulate at 666, did they? No long capitulation so it follows logically that there doesn't have to be capitulation on the short side either.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 13:07 | 19532 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I always thought the market goes down when the longs bail.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 14:02 | 19624 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The driving force of this rally has been (a) Shorts go short (b) GS et al force market higher (c) Shorts panic and cover their shorts driving market sharply higher (d) repeat. In other words, a classic short squeeze repeated over and over. It's obvious (to me anyway) because the garbage stocks, the ones most likely to be shorted, have been those that have rallied the most.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 16:33 | 19842 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Short squeeze kiss my a**.

I'm gonna hold my inverse ETFs until they recover or go to zero.
Just like the saying "an investment is a trade gone bad"...

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:54 | 19290 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Here's going out on a limb (not really):

The market closes down today. High for the year. High for the next several years.

The beauty of anonymity. If this proves correct, anyone on this site using Anonymous as his moniker can lay claim, go on the talk shows, book circuit, etc., and I will have created one job.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:57 | 19294 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Anonymous is for wimps. ;-)

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:58 | 19300 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Fundamentals are for wimps and losers in this market

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 13:13 | 19545 bbtrader
bbtrader's picture

finally some gets it right...and there is a common technical belief that goes, if there is a conflict about market direction ('wall of worry'), the dominant trend will continue to prevail, so as long as traders try to short this market, they will lose

the markets are trading purely on technicals, so watch the S&P 500 at around 1010-1015, that's about 38% retracement of the Oct 2007 - March 2009 drop, if it's going to drop from anywhere it's that level

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 13:05 | 19529 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

wimp,wimp...peep,peep

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 10:58 | 19299 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What is the best way to look at money inflows and outflows into the different sectors?

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 14:47 | 19696 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

So like that chick on the TD Ameritrade commercial. You get a laptop, cup of coffee and start tweaking at the "heatmap".

Cold. Cold. HOT HOT HOT THERE'S WHERE THE ACTION IS!!!!!!

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:00 | 19304 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Here's a cool thing to do. Pull up a 5 year weekly chart on AAPL. Take a look at the slope of the rally in 07 vs. this one. Take a look at the last two tops. Then take a look at what happens next.

To quote Flounder in Animal House "This is soooooooooo cool!"

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:02 | 19310 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The only thing cool about it is that is the kind of linear thinking that keeps you poor and GS rich.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:10 | 19335 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Lots of charts looking like this lately.  Low volume, floating higher.  I call it the wisp of smoke formation.

They usually end badly but picking when they end ......

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:01 | 19306 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This blog is pure disinformation.

You have been broken and vanquished. Give it up.

Oh, and good thing they covered 95% of the shorts in the market, as per your post the other day, otherwise great losses would have accrued.

ZERO DEAD

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:21 | 19359 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You are linking economic pessimism with market pessimism. Sometimes folks know what's out there, but hold their noses and play the cards being dealt. What ZH does is remind those of us who dare to walk on this ice that spring is coming.

"People may criticize me, but when I go home and think of my money, I applaud myself." Oscar Wilde

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:01 | 19307 Hondo
Hondo's picture

Well, just remember how other countries stock markets and economies have performed when their governments have been involved to that extent in the markets.  Initially things seem good as everyone thinks they are the one who will benefit.....eventually it destroys the system so that no one benefits except those in power.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:01 | 19309 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK ROSENBERG

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:02 | 19311 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Looks like those crystal balls have been shattered.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:02 | 19312 Neophiliac
Neophiliac's picture

By the way, it's gone past the short squeeze, I think. Last week, TD posted amounts of short interest, with breakdown by sector. IIRC, materials, and utilities were among sectors with basically negligible short interest remaining. Well, today, materials is up 4%+ and utilities are up just shy of 2%.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:53 | 19513 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Short squeeze still playing a major role...stats below are for the top 30 and bottom 30 stocks in each index, sorted by Short Interest as a % of Float. Highest short vs. lowest short. Today's daily return as of about 1130am

sp 500: 3.1% vs 1.3% (holy fcking sht!!!)
sp400 2.6% vs 2.4%
sp600: 2.9% vs 2.0%

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:03 | 19313 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

ZERO OWNED
ZERO BALANCE
ZERO CREDIBILITY
ZERO SENSE

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:07 | 19324 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Right. All the corporate insiders selling in tidal waves. What do they know! Schmucks.

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:03 | 19314 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Wall Street Manna is the new guru - good call to whomever made the post.

FUCK ROSENBERG

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 12:56 | 19516 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

ah, glad to meet you. you're the proverbial "fool" with whom is soon parted with his money.

that guy was bullish in Oct 07, July 08, Oct 08 and Jan. in other words, always. just like all the other long-only vanillas that they parade on cnbc. if you only have one option, of course you're going to buy.

that guy is making money in an upward trending market by buying lottery tickets. in a flat or down market, he'll be raking in 100% losses alot faster than the "400% gains" he's taking now.

memories are short. risk is high (and getting higher every day)

Thu, 07/30/2009 - 11:03 | 19317 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Looks like the stock market bubble is back! It feels just like 1999!

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