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David Rosenberg On Today's Straight Line Ramp To 1,000
From David Rosenberg:
"The government has its hands in 40% of the economy and when public sector officials can influence how banks can value their assets, how mortgage servicers should be doing their business, who shall fail in the financial industry and who shall not; and when we have a central bank that is not just the lender but the market of last resort, even for RVs, and a government willing to run up its deficit to levels that would have made FDR blush, then perhaps we can end up seeing a recovery
occur sooner than we had thought."
And below is the market rewarding central planning:
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Actually to me it feels like fall 2001.
wouldn't it be cheaper to just give each of us a $mil and call it good?
Tyler-
Time to write a book on the "New Irrational Exhuberance"
It seems a line has been drawn in the sand at dow 9000. My take either the GDP number has been leaked or tommorow the bears will be in control. Very tempted to jump into SDS. Opinions please.
Let's ask the machines???
Eh, they say, they don't know now, but they will tell you 0.03 seconds before your order gets traded tomorrow.
Now the question comes, "If they frontrun you on the upside, will they also frontrun you on the downside, or will they bet against you and then squeeze you by 3.59pm the same day"
I will bet on the second one.
I think we keep writing here and trying to make sense of this, struggling how it is possible and how it's not. The question is what can we do?
What can each and one of us do to find the truth, when faced against an army of propaganda machines, HFT machines and other machines in congress all programed by the same people?
Jumping into SDS certainly makes sense if the game wasn't rigged, but it is, so be careful.
And maybe people are still sleeping, but they will wake up eventually, when they loose their jobs and no real growth is felt.
You can manipulate with the stock market and also the inflation, unemployment, GDP and other data, but after a while people will feel that even if working can't afford a decend life, things have gone up so much, work is hard to come by and they will wake up, don't worry.
My concern is that we will have wasted significant amount of time by then, and some of it is irreversible.
Somewhere on a comments board, Cody Jarrett proclaims: "Made it Ma! Firing rounds in an anechoic chamber!"
This has been Marc Faber's position for a while. But he also argues the recovery will be temporary and end in an even greater disaster.
Doug Kass' comment just now is interesting:
The 1929-1930 equity rally coming out of The Great Depression lasted 147 days and was up 46%.~Off of the 'generational low' in early March, it has been 145 days, and the advance is the same 46%.
Doug Kass called the bottom in March almost to the day. Do you have a link?
V
As Petula Clark used to sing when I was a kid: "Don't give up, don't let it get you down; Don't give up, don't think of leavin' town...Love will be yours in the end, my friend..."
SPG plunged from @$96 to @$48 - 50%! - last Fall, sending SRS over the $200 mark...
Hang in there, fellow short ETF holders. It's still just another bubble, filled with government/CNBC/GS/Fed/Bloomberg hot air...bubbles pop.
What are the good short ETF's to buy in 401k.
aaaah, excellent! Let's buy triple leveraged ETFs with our 401k investments and let's get stock options in the form of puts from now on. A baby boomers dream will come true.
It seems puerile to think that economies will be on the mend because their stocks markets are rocketing.
The wrench? The debt markets
The primary cause is always debts (romance finishes where finance starts) Sad
"It seems puerile to think that economies will be on the mend because their stocks markets are rocketing"
Actually, it is often correct. Prices often do come before fundamentals, provided the fundamentals have a chance of taking over. This time, though, the rising market will do little for the consumer, as at best it merely fills in some of the hole from the last year's losses in the 401K. The house is still a mess, and nobody, save for the GS partners who will be hiring more domestics, will be hiring for a while. Little savings, a lower net worth, job insecurity, high debt loads, and declining lines of credit make this time different from any other economic downturn since 1930.
This time it is liquidity trying to create hope.
Doug Kass just state the following:
The 1929-1930 equity rally coming out of The Great Depression lasted 147 days and was up 46%.~Off of the 'generational low' in early March, it has been 145 days, and the advance is the same 46%.
I went short around 980 so im not reeling but this is crazy. PB of China says "hey, we're still pumping the stimulus. We love bubbles!" Investor reaction "Okay then, lets bid 'em up!"
Here's the link:
http://www.thestreet.com/author/1358076/DougKass/all.html
This board is full of people who are bearish on the economy and therefore bearish on the market. These are NOT THE SAME. In the past year, the market has already given back 10 YEARS of gains. The economy is only starting to do the same thing.
I would love to see this chart again after the 7-year treasury auction results are posted. Who the hell is going to buy treasuries when the stock market is OBVIOUSLY the place to be? Man, the remaining $1 trillion we need to finish this year is going to get expensive, quick! - Dear 'Team Obama', Thanks for bankrupting the USA!
Don't forget 8 years of Cheney-Bush errr...Bush-Cheney
The worst word combination in the english language; 'I think.'
Steve Liesman and Rick Santelli agreed (a rare event) that the 7-year auction went well because there was a need to diversify more towards longer dated maturities. Oh, they forgot to mention that NEITHER OF THEM 'PREDICTED' THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN before the auction went off. We easily accept these belated explanations about the mad cow crazy market these days. Instead of saying "WTF" they tell us why everything makes sense. The only thing that makes sense (to me, anyway) is that we may be in the midst of some panic buying in equities and some Fed buying in the 7-year.
No more predicting for me any more...I don't know anything! 'time to get some lighter fluid and burn some macroeconomic text books. Good day!
Doug Kass' comments suggest that what happened in late 2008 was a controlled job... and now we are repeating history...
The treasury and American people were fooled to give 800b$ to the banks to hand over to the Feds and earn interest on it..
The American ppl were robbed!!
Now we get into a reflation trade followed by oops a deflation trade, then a reflation trade... then a reflation trade.. if history is to repeat itself.. the next leg down will be severe..! No SEVERE!
Ahh, a look at FXA reveals the source of the bump. The dollar just dropped by 1%.
Of course we have the auction today, then a big liquidity pull tomorrow. So down-leg tomorrow I'm guessing, maybe with some 'strong dollar' talk to whack down currencies.
and the money for that 'sooner recovery' are just being printed, right?
short the stock market
I think its really funny that part of this rally is definately due to algos and hft getting out of the way. After being killed consistently on the short side, they are now ducking, and liquidity is horrible.
TD if this market doesn't tank in the fall, you and Rosie are gonna look like a couple of douchebags.
I warned this board 4 months ago that Durden was a one way clown that was useless as a guide to anything but his own paranoia.
Bet he was fired by someone big who recognized his incompetence.
Wow, you're clearly a genius. I'll nominate you for the Nobel in Economics.
Can you give me the link where you also told us in 2007 that all hell was about to break loose? Members of the Nobel committee will want to see that, too.
Actually, TD hasn't been predicting anything as far as I can tell, just observing.
And his observations have made me money.
The most useful observations were in late March/early April, when he helped me see the obvious Fed intervention in the equity markets. The footprints he pointed out made it obvious to me there was equity market manipulation.
I trade MBS, and on March 18th Bernanke announced he was going to be buying essentially the entire MBS market for the year.
This, combined, with the observations on this site, convinced me that Bernanke would stop at nothing to get cheap dollars into the economy, and to diversify all my assets out of the USD. In addition to my oil position, I added to CAD and AUD (which I have since closed, for a nice gain).
So I, for one, would like to thank TD for all his reporting. You can't blame him if you came to the wrong conclusion.
td a fraud as you are.
td says everything is fake and manipulated.
so if mkt crashes he says i told you so
so if market ramps he says i told you so.
shove your mbs up yerazz.
Sorry you lost money. Thanks for leaving it where I could find it.
When is this site requiring registration, again?
Read the whole article:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/17842475/Breakfast-With-Dave-073009
Interesting twist on the bull propaganda these days. In the old days it was HAHAHA LOSER BEAR I'M GETTING RICH!!!!1 Now it's OWOWOWOW I'M SHORT I CAN'T TAKE IT ANY MORE!!!1 As if long and short were the sole, binary, options. As if we weren't patiently clipping our coupons in trustworthy bourses waiting for the shills to expire. The get-rich-quick strivers have to go for broke while people with means merely preserve their capital.
I want you all to ponder this concept: if you feel the government cannot replace our lost GDP by spending, what are the odds GS can take us back up to the S&P 1500 level by virtue of its own internal HFT alone.
And if you believe that GS and the Government can totally replace native 70% GDP consumer consumption of a healthy economy, then why should we ever expect to ever have another recession or financial crisis again.
This is not a bear market rally, it is much worse, it is another bubble... a government spending and HFT driven market re-pricing bubble... and it is severely delaying the deleveraging that our consumer economy needed to take place so their personal balance sheets can get back to non-fantasy land levels of personal debt.
Like all bubbles it WILL pop, but we do not know when... Tom
I concur entirely - and that's the bet those of us who haven't covered shorts are making, that the pop will happen damn soon. But I do worry that it can remain irrational for longer than I'll be solvent. We'll see. At this moment, I'm feeling nauseous, but not going to throw up, or throw in the towel just yet. Should have done that 3 weeks ago when I had a profit rather than a huge loss.
I don't know about the HFT stuff, but you are right, this is a bubble, brought on by cheap money.
The only people wrong on this site were the deflationists. I don't know WTF they don't understand. Bernanke himself has repeated it time after time - with a pure fiat currency you can ALWAYS create inflation.
We are seeing the results today. Just wait until the June CS housing index comes up - it is guaranteed to go up (guaranteed because it is a three month moving average and the month dropping off has a large decline which June won't). that will skyrocket the market a bit more.
As someone else on this site said once - we will soon all be millionaires, and broke.
OK
The longer crap lays out in the field the less it stinks. We are moving to a point where YoY numbers don't look so bad.
We are also moving to a point where companies need to deliver 40% EPS growth next year, because that's pretty much what the market has priced in up here.
Bear in mind that real wages are steady or falling, credit is contracting, the savings rate is going up, unemployment is going up, and the tax burden is going up. Where is the money coming from to drive consumer spending up? It's gonna be tough to get top line revenue growth in that environment, and if there's no top line then these can have no chance of 40% EPS growth, they will miss by a country mile.
The biggest bears are giving up. Newsweek says the recession is over. John Q. Public has gone back to worrying more about Dancing With The Stars than his retirement plan. Time to BUY BUY BUY!!......puts, that is.
RVs? You mean the Fed will take my Winnebago off my hands? I thought they were only in the market for Sikorskys. You learn something new everyday!
Since March:
The S&P has now rallied almost 50%
Nasdaq over 60%
China up more than 100% since last November.
All this while the global economy has worsened.
But then who cares about fundamentals.
How about banning anonymous commenters?
On a different note....check this out....this is a true story...WTF! 18.5 Billion from Iran to Turkey! Whoa! WTF
http://iranfacts.blogspot.com/2009/07/185-billion-dollars-transfered-from.html
Although the news of 18.5 billion being smuggled to Turkey was first broadcast on state-sponsored English pressTV (Tehran), today, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA, with such absurd track record of blatant lies) has come out that Turkey has denied this "rumor"!!!
When IRNA gets defensive about something, it means Ahmadinejad's behind the scandal!
Comments please? Will the 1 pm auction results end the runup?
The 1pm auction will your shorts up your and TDs ass
The bondees buy low, you friggin' _____.
and sell high.
"They don't ring a bell at the top".
Well, this time is different.
DING, DING, DING!
serenity now...insanity later
wondering if the markets rally untill the FED dodges the H.R. 1207 bullet.
also wondering if it is different this time .. the arrogance of Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger may result in their need of seeing all their efforts of implementing "THE" plan come to fruition during their life time ... so what we maybe seeing is a full court press towards the full collapse of our sovereignty.
Here is wisdom. THIS IS A TAKEOVER - THEY ARE BUYING UP ALL COMPANIES WITH YOUR TAXPAYER MONEY DESPITE BEING TECHNICALLY INSOLVENT. THIS IS ABOUT CONTROL OF ALL COMPANIES - NOT MAKING MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!! MEET YOUR NEW BOSSES
1k tomorrow.
Great news for the weekend media to propagandize when Americans watch the most TV.
Goldman Sachs traders are out at lunch right now loading up on Yohimbe Bark so they can blow a huge load all over the bears at the close.
S&P 1010 by the close.
Big news, the TRIN went bearish LOL
With unlimited 0% money from Fed, I could buy a few shares too, and later distribute them to suckers when interest rates start to raise enough to eat into my projected wins, this far a nice 50% UNLEVERAGED from SPX 666.
Thanks for watching out for the common man, Fed. Thanks for capitulating to the banksters, White House and Congress.
so much for Obama's 'change', which turned out to be more of the same
much more of the same
uncle Ben makes Greenspan the Bubble Blower look like an amateur
Anytime I find myself saying Ooooo...look how much I have in my account...time to get out.
And in the darkness bind them...
Can't they easily cook the GDP using higher stock prices
and money supply components?
Denninger is explaining the TRIN feeds error this morning. I don't have the tech to appreciate if he is right, but I rather believe it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJcXX3U4oQs
HFT, Quants, and Hal 9k are feeding on themselves like an acute anorexic patient. Eventually all the muscle will be consumed by the body and the patient will go into cardiac arrest. Unfortunately, the human body is a resilient organism able to withstand long periods of anomalous conditions seemingly defying all conventional medical wisdom. Thus, the only prudent course a rational individual can take is to sit on their knuckles until they are bleeding and deathly white. Next, when his/her knuckles are about to explode, let them go because you still have your thumbs which in the end distinguishes all of us from the Space Monkeys.
Well said, its it true that your mission is to "Track your prey across the globe in a series of secret missions to take down a fanatical terrorist organization... before it takes you down?" By the way, where is the potion?
yo anonymous 19544 what happened to the yohimbe ?? Pls post what u r doing when u r doing it so i can fade your ASS...u hear me!! Tell me why do u f*ckin' wa wa's cry over GS every freakin' day?? i'll tell u why. CAUSE U SUCK. U DON"T HAVE ANY STONES.....why don't u go buy some lotto tix and go play with yourselves....fuckin' cry babies !!!!! WA WA WA......
Perhaps you should use the reply directly to the comment itself genius, the only thing fading is your intellect. The comment you referenced is on the first page.