David Rosenberg's 10 Themes For 2011

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Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:51 | 796597 Larry Darrell
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You forgot the skittles........or is that covered by the rainbow?

 "real GDP growth in the U.S.A."..........when was the last time we had REAL growth, and I'm not talking about monetary or debt driven.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:59 | 796658 Thomas
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"You forgot the Skittles". Very funny.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:14 | 796717 SheepDog-One
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I guess it was just assumed Harry, Robo, and the Wall St whores unicorns shit Skittles.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:25 | 796776 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
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I thought Obama shit them.  Right after the unicorns but before the puppy dogs.  In 2008 that college kid swore he did!  He said its just hard to see with the unicorns running around.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:31 | 796808 Biggus Dickus Jr.
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I don't understand why everyone is so down on Harry and Robo.  The best way to avoid the errors of groupthink is to welcome diversity of opinion.  Maybe wall street whore are very naughty people, but that won't keep me from trying to find the best total return.  I'll run with the whores when necessary.  Why would any objective investor do otherwise?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:42 | 797437 Raymond K Hessel
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Real GDP growth is the sum of the inflation rate and the nominal GDP rate.... has this website become a shithole for ass-sniffing Marxist turdmunchers? 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:49 | 796611 haskelslocal
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Prefered buy list... Grocery stores. First up? A&P at a bargain...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:51 | 797124 Clayton Bigsby
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lol - that was my first thought as well...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:50 | 796613 littlebuddy
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now's a good time to recant unseen 2010 predictions.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:02 | 796675 Henry Chinaski
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now's a good time to recant unseen 2010 predictions.

That's what I was thinking.

And these 2011 predictions aren't all that bad.  Now I am second guessing my plan to keep hoarding food, firearms and precious metals.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:12 | 796706 toathis
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yeah, nothing is coming.

I love the Bernanke hate, very misguided.

HE WAS CORRECT! He saved our behinds from another Depression and War

CNBC was right! No Double-Dip, no nothing!

Gold is a bubble. The Recession is over. The dollar isn't going anywhere.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:30 | 796801 What a mess_man
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toathis ... Dude, Bernanke is never correct.  Never.  Every economic prognostication the man has ever made has turned out to be as wrong as his thesis.  How can you say he saved our behinds from another Depression and war?  This history has yet to be written.  Also, many would argue that we are and have been in a depression for the better part of 2 years now.  Of course you can look at the bogus figures the gubbermint puts out and claim "recovery!", or you can look at that "growth" which has come about as a result of Ben's massive monetary injections and take that away from real organic growth (i.e. the facts) and say 'yep, looks like a depression'.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:07 | 797175 Al Gorerhythm
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and he cured the world of all diseases and he increased the purchasing power of our money and he created 42 million new jobs and he printed the nation out of debt and he increased the value of stocks to record highs and he created gold paved highways and candy rock mountains and got us all singing and dancing in the streets to the tunes of "Sugar Sugar", and Tiptoe Through The Tulips.

I don't see a bubble in gold yet. When Johnny Bravo is standing in the Gold Window line at the local coin store, that's when it will be a bubble.

When you are standing in line to get gold, I'll know it's long past worrying about my sell decision.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 00:23 | 798087 Al Gorerhythm
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One by one, heads are turning. If this doesn't turn yours, then you are a troll. If this does not set you off on a path to truth, then you are a troll. If this does not generate a volcano of outrage, then you are not paying attention and are therefore a troll.

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/12.10/scam.html

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 02:33 | 798264 Bolweevil
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That link almost f&$ked up my Christmas.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 09:03 | 798405 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

great, wonderful, fine...now what the hell is anyone going to do about any of it?  They are untouchable and have bought everyone needed to be sure they susceed.  By the time, anyone is in a position to stop it, the valts will be empty and AMERICANS will have a debt that can not be paid off...ever.

As my dentist said to me this week, how can we really stop it?

It is 1934, and Mr Rosenberg has his head in the clouds.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:43 | 796853 the rookie cynic
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I'd be happy to trade you my JPM and GS shares for any .308 shells, Kruggerands, or Spam you want to part with.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:09 | 796699 tahoebumsmith
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Good point as we have seen many unseen 2010 predictions. However the reason for that is nobody in their right mind would have predicted the FED and the ECB would go another 8 TRILLION in debt to prove us wrong. That is really what it boils down to, nobody can predict anything anymore because the cover-up will continue as long as the Elites can keep sucking us dry and the government will allow the FED to continue printing. Every action has consequences, are you ready to face ours once the printing presses are turned off? Just remember every unseen prediction has been stick saved by a bailout...EVERYONE OF THEM! So eventually the curtain will be pulled back and the lip quivering wizard will be exposed for what he really is, nothing more then an ink covered coward that robbed America blind.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:16 | 796723 DoChenRollingBearing
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+ 1 tahoe

NONE of our fundamental problems have been solved.  NO ONE (of significance)  has gone to jail through this financial disaster.

...

@ Henry above, don´t feel bad buying gold.  Feel tranquil instead.  You will sleep well tonight.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:10 | 796973 hidingfromhelis
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+1 Suburban...brought to you by Gov't Motors!

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 09:23 | 798415 blindfaith
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I have written words along this line on Zh before.

Until, for some situation yet to happen, martial law is declared, nothing will change or be stopped.  How can anything be changed when the government is as corrupt as the banks and brokers, fund managers, corporate leaders, the media?  The corruption is so entrenched in America that most Americans can't see it because it has become a part of daily life...it is expected.  TV shows, video games, movies, on the internet..it is how we are being brainwashed to be.  You even see hero worship and the desire to walk in those shoes.

 

Until such time as the military has had a snoot full and feels jeopardize that its ability to pay its troops or purchase needed supplies is threatened,  until such time that the military feels that the civilian government and enterprise has 'weapons of mass destruction'...until, that is when all this mess will end.  NO other power has the ability to change anything but the military, so don't kid yourself.  But, then ....the question becomes will George Washington or Dwight D Eisenhower then emerge?

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 18:38 | 799235 puckles
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A military takeover is extremely unlikely.  Martial law, however, at some point, is very likely; occasioned by yet another Reichstag fire event, and commanded by the duly elected powers.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:51 | 796622 Midas
Midas's picture

My buddy Harry says you should take a look at apple.  (Don't worry about the price)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:58 | 796659 Robslob
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Tough call on Apple...5 shares at $320 or buy 2 iPads?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:06 | 796684 CPL
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Apples have a great return.  Two trees to cross pollinate for around 40 bucks a piece equals $1000 in apples.

 

Oh wait, you're talking about the shit hole of a company called apple...pardon me

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:07 | 797177 malusDiaz
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I planted an orchard in the back yard, average cost was below 15$ a tree, 25+

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:25 | 796777 HarryWanger
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AAPL is priced very fairly here and is relatively cheap. Watch next earnings report, which will be stellar, and you'll see over 350 in a heartbeat.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:28 | 796791 SheepDog-One
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Harry Im supposed to pack up and move to the Twin Cities based upon THIS info you sent about your many job openings (8-12)?

 


Hello, We will be hiring at our Twin Cities facility located in Minneapolis at the end of Q1 2011. Right now we anticipate 8-12 new full time positions. If you are serious, I can give you a more detailed description of the jobs available. When I refer to adding "dozens of retail outlets", they are distributors who own their outlets. We sell to them. We've added retailers in Las Vegas, Seattle, Chicago and New York this Fall in addition to the current retailers. That impacts distribution and manufacturing on my end, hence the move to hire in Q1/Q2. HW

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:15 | 796984 reading
reading's picture

For every hiring, there are a few more firings...

T.J. Maxx parent to cut 4,400 jobs 
Source: money.cnn.com 

TJX Companies said on Friday that it is eliminating 4,400 jobs "to improve the overall profitability of the company."

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:13 | 796974 tahoebumsmith
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Alright Harry I'll let you in on a good stock tip..( SHW) With talks of QE3 happening just weeks after the introduction of QE2, spackle and paint sales should hit an all time high.

 

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 00:03 | 798053 DoctoRx
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Agree w HW!  I have been saying on this site since the summer that AAPL is a classic GARP stock.  Note David Einhorn big into AAPL now.

And I've begun to think Rosie sounds almost insane.  Oh, no big deal, deficit for 2011 just as disgusting as for 2010- and unsaid is that both will be monetized -- now why didn't the Weimar Republic work out well in its money-printing orgy?  Buy bonds because contrary to hopes/expectations, the USG is using more and more Grecian Formula?  WTF?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:59 | 796657 Quixotic_Not
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Penny stocks from heaven FTW?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:59 | 796660 sheep92
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It is telling that even though he see not a single equity analyst bearish he too ends his commentary with his 'preferred buy list'.

So to whom is he going to sell this buy list ?

Baaaaaa

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:03 | 796661 CPL
CPL's picture

Good calls, wild cards not-withstanding.

Cancuck buck should, and I say "should" be around 68 cents on the USD, the problem is overpricing basics food stuffs and energy.

Right now our primary consumer of electricity is taking an ass kicking on cost to the tune of nearly 80% of the energy sold over the wire byt draconian energy contracts tot he south of the border.  Yes I understand it's not in Canuck interests, but Canada sells a lot of electricity over the border and there are a lot of cousins in a shitty place because they can't pay their heating bills...however

The food stuffs is obvious.  Costs in energy like ripples in a pond make it troublesome to find where the center of the cost is incurring because the pond ripple has back splashed from the shore and back into the rest of the pond.  With zero possibility of it calming down, expect food prices to double the same time by next year.

While the US produces a lot of food, it is heavily dependent on imported food.  In terms of time the US can feed itself, if it behaved itself and didn't sell food to anyone, for around six months out of a year.  Places like england might make it for three weeks.

There is a heavy dependence on places like Australia, Russia, Canada, Brazil and Argentina to provide the shortfalls in the production of food for the western world.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:41 | 796849 MrSteve
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The USDA report on imported food trends, 1998-2007 shows the ballpark volume of imported food about doubling in ten years.

www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/FAU/2009/08Aug/.../FAU125.pdf

Your expectations of food prices doubling in a year is some kind of bad typo or a crazy prediction. Do you expect people will start buying half-gallons and half-quarts of milk and 1/8 pounder hamburgers for the same price as today's put-ups?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:58 | 796893 GoinFawr
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"Cancuck buck should, and I say "should" be around 68 cents on the USD, the problem is overpricing basics food stuffs and energy."

Yah ok. That four bit and change assessment is based on what? The fact that the 1967 Canadian quarter is only 80% silver compared to the 90% of the American quarter minted the same year? I've got news for ya bud: it ain't 1967, these days the loonie is just junk metal, and the USD nothing more than linen/paper/mylar/whatever with contradictory mythical symbols printed on it.

I mean, that ratio sure isn't  based on fiscal prudence by any metric I use to measure. But maybe I am completely missing something, so feel free to enlighten me.

Regards

 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:00 | 796669 Questionmark
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What is this guy smoking? We're not even hitting 3% in nominal terms, much less real.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:17 | 796726 SheepDog-One
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Remove dollar printing at -0-% and monetizing, GDP is a big negative print.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:03 | 796678 DisparityFlux
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What about commercial real estate loan defaults in 2011?  How does slow growth and far to much excess labor capacity mitigate this?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:14 | 796711 Rogerwilco
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Yeah, CRE has been swept under the rug. They hold their noses and roll the loans over. Tomorrow never comes in the land of milk and honey.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:51 | 797120 TheProphet
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They're not even rolling the loans over. They're just pretending they don't exist so they don't have to foreclose.

If they rolled them over they might have to acknowledge their decrease in value and mark them to market. And you know for sure that's not happening.

"If I close my eyes, you cant see me" is a great strategy... if you're my cat. Otherwise, it's a path to destruction. Right now, it's a waiting game.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:51 | 797121 TheProphet
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They're not even rolling the loans over. They're just pretending they don't exist so they don't have to foreclose.

If they rolled them over they might have to acknowledge their decrease in value and mark them to market. And you know for sure that's not happening.

"If I close my eyes, you cant see me" is a great strategy... if you're my cat. Otherwise, it's a path to destruction. Right now, it's a waiting game.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:18 | 796719 toathis
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there is no "Excess labor capacity", head to China.

The fact of the matter is, people don't like to work. There is no reason to work when the government prints money and hands it out.

The US WILL NOT DEFAULT! Got it?

This is a shout-out to all the doomers that were dead stinking wrong.

All that flag wavings and shouting from the front lawn at the WH, did the collapse come... nope!

Tim Geither= best treasury security in history. SAVED US! Got that yet, folks?

___ bless Mr. Geithner. Let us hope he recovers as fast as our economy has under his excellent leadership! (no homo)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:18 | 796736 Rogerwilco
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Were you a big fan of Webvan and Pets.com? Unsustainable is unsustainable, the money (or access to it) eventually runs out.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:25 | 796778 CPL
CPL's picture

I think he was speaking in terms of irony and sarcasim under a rant.

gov.com, webvan.com and pet.com.  Actually worked on a contract for them all, they weren't the worst business shit holes thought dot.com can name around twenty that were just simply awful ideas.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:29 | 796793 AccreditedEYE
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Roger, this dude's a troll. (or just insanely sarcastic, at which point his posts become pretty hilarious) Per akak, don't feed the trolls. (I still feel dirty for feeding Harry earlier...)

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 23:49 | 798015 UninterestedObserver
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You're just a douchebag - I hope you die.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:18 | 796738 CPL
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the wild card of over population and excess population is part of the model, it will just be summarily ignored as usual.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:51 | 796877 TheGoodDoctor
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Actually enriching the third world will naturally curb excess population growth. That is the near term end game. It happened to Europe. It happened to the US. And probably Japan too.

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