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David Rosenberg's Explanation Why The Real Unemployment Rate (U-3) Is 12%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Pretty much  precisely what we noted earlier today: "A couple of behind-the-scene facts: from October to February, an epic
700k people have left the work force. If you actually adjust for the
fact that the labour force participation rate has plunged this cycle to a
27-year low the unemployment would be sitting at 12% today. Moreover
the employment-to-population ratio —
the so-called “employment rate” —
stagnated in February at 58.4% and is actually lower now than it was
last fall when “double dip” was the flavour du jour."

PAYROLL REVIEW – NICE JOB, SHAME ABOUT THE PAYCHEQUE, from Gluskin Sheff

The widespread reaction to the jobs report today is uniformly positive. I think a dose of reality is really needed here. It may as well come from this pen. The headline print of +192k was in line with published estimates but following the slate of ISMs and the ADP report, the “whispered” number was closer to +250k. Of course, there were the upward revisions to the back-data that showed net gains of +58k so one could easily respond that adjusted for these, the topline did indeed meet these “whispered” estimates. The employment diffusion index jumped to a 13-year high of 68.2% from 60.1% in January, but beware of peaks and troughs in this index (i.e. it would have been a mistake to extrapolate the 17% low in this job dispersion measure at the March 2009 market trough).

Here is what I think is important: because of the winter storms, we really have to average out the past two months. So the January-February average for payrolls is +128k. Allowing for a similar reading in March that we received in February would generate an average increase for the first quarter of around 150k. That is little changed from what employment gains averaged on a monthly basis in the fourth quarter. So while we are seeing positive job growth, it is not accelerating even though we are coming off the most intense impact of the fiscal and monetary easing that was unveiled late last year. In other words, we are disappointed with what is still a lacklustre trend in net job creation, particularly in view of the peak stimulus we are currently experiencing.

What if Q1 is the peak for job growth? If you remember, we ended up with sub-3% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, which is about half of what we should be seeing at this stage of the cycle. And if we are generating jobs at a similar rate in the current quarter, barring a re-acceleration in productivity, growth again will be below 3% at a time when the consensus is closer to 3.5%. But more to the point — what if this represents the peak for the year? Because if there is one thing we do know, it is that this quarter contains all the incremental policy easing impact on the macro data.

What was particularly discouraging was the fact that both the wage number and the workweek were flat. Nominal wages, in fact, have been stagnant in three of the past four months. Weekly average earnings have also been flat or negative in three of the past four months. How on earth can these statistics possibly be viewed as bullish for the economy? The year-over-year-trend in average weekly earnings in the past three months has softened from 2.6% to 2.5% to 2.3% today. At the same time, it is probably reasonable to assume that surging food and fuel costs will bring headline inflation to, and possibly through, 3% in coming months. In other words, the growing risk of falling personal income in real terms, even with the positive growth in payrolls, is a glaring yellow light as far as the consumer spending outlook is concerned.

Aggregate hours worked only managed to tick up 0.2% in February after a flat January. That is total labour input — bodies and hours. So assuming a trend-like productivity performance, we are talking yet again about sub-3% GDP growth, which by itself is okay but considering the peak impact of all the fiscal and monetary steroids being administered this quarter, it is actually disappointing.

Yes, the unemployment rate dipped again to a 22-month low of 8.9% from 9.0% in January and the nearby high of 9.8% in November. This reflected a 250k risein Household employment — the third increase in a row — and a flat participation rate. A couple of behind-the-scene facts: from October to February, an epic 700k people have left the work force. If you actually adjust for the fact that the labour force participation rate has plunged this cycle to a 27-year low the unemployment would be sitting at 12% today. Moreover the employment-to-population ratio — the so-called “employment rate” — stagnated in February at 58.4% and is actually lower now than it was last fall when “double dip” was the flavour du jour.

All that matters in these employment reports is what the jobs environment means for income, because workers generally spend in the real economy. With credit harder to come by, and with fiscal policy soon to become more focussed on austerity, it is the income that the labour delivers that will prove to be the critical determinant of the economic outlook. So while the “spin” may be over near-200k headline payroll gains, another dip in the headline unemployment rate, the organic income backdrop can really only be described as tentative, at best, especially in real terms as gasoline prices make their way to $4 a gallon by the time Memorial Day rolls around.

 

 

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Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:49 | 1019047 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The truth is never obvious to those who are paid to look the other way or for those who are too frightened or willfully blind to look.....period.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:00 | 1019099 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Right now I'm feeling like Pontius Pilate in that scene from "The Passion" where he washes his hands and mutters "Qui est veritas?" This week, and the past two months for that matter, make no sense.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:32 | 1019269 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Just the last two months? I feel like the last three years (!) don't make sense. Print some paper to cover up the shadow banking collapse, control the media to prevent anyone from expressing a mood other than wild optimism, punt the equity indeces to the moon, and watch the world burn.  I mean seriously - this was the plan?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:59 | 1019387 Michael
Michael's picture

What can we do to get everyone who is unemployed to apply for a job so they can be counted in U3?

How can we get the word out using social networking sites to apply for a job that will be legitimately counted in the BLS statistics?

I apply for unemployment compensation every 6 months even though I know I will not get it because I am not eligible for it, just so I can be counted and not put in the U6.

What can we do?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:16 | 1019471 LoneCapitalist
LoneCapitalist's picture

Who is John Galt?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:19 | 1019499 Michael
Michael's picture

This could be a ZH "Project BLS Mayhem" activity all ZH's can participate in by spreading the word to do this.

We could have a sticky on the sidebar about it.

What can go wrong? Some people will find a job?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 16:15 | 1020014 tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

not the best idea but not the worst either...i like the free thinking though

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:10 | 1019743 FreeMoney Bernie
FreeMoney Bernie's picture

and the bankers and money changers keep yelling give us Bernanke give us Bernanke

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:11 | 1019116 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

Rosie, it's really too bad that more people don't take your work seriously. I don't know why, maybe your 500 point rounding error on where the S&P was headed. Also Rosie what's your view on Drew Matus's perspective on the incredible shrinking labor force? 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-07/aging-baby-boomers-reduce-u-s-u...

 

PS don't lose heart Rosie - $4 gas may help to restore your credibility

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:10 | 1019435 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Your analysis and Matus' analysis is pathetically weak.

US population growth per year 1% or 3ish million people or about 280K/mo.

Number of people turning 65 per year is about 150K-200K/month from this link

http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=461288

This boomer retiring theory does therefore NOT explain loss of labor participation.  The number of people (from census.gov) aged 15-19 yrs is 11 million.  Age 60-64 is 7 million.  More enter the workforce from the low end than leave it at the top end.

 

 

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:36 | 1019574 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

I see what your mean, sorry for linking to Matus' perspective.  I guess he missed all those 15 year olds entering the workforce. I gotta be more careful with who I cite. That google answers seems like a great resource almost as good as wikipedia. Thanks again.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:57 | 1019680 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Dood, even your sarcasm is weak.  And btw, BLS considers 16 the lower end of the workforce.  Not 18.  

Moron.

The google answers data derived from census.gov.

Moron rev 2.0.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:23 | 1019205 Matto
Matto's picture

Cog Diss, you are well respected and followed here on 0H, could you help to make a push for Zero Hedgers to start putting the word out there online to reach the masses and build awareness ala my comments below? 

If the MSM wont come to us then maybe its time we took it to them! 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:29 | 1019249 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Interesting that you would say that now. I saw your comment below.

I'm currently working on an article about "Zero Hedge" itself, about it's purpose and our purpose for being here. And I make the case for precisely that, that it's time to move out and make a difference. It's still in the oven and about a week from completion.

As usual it will ruffle some feathers and spark a few cognitive dissonances.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:37 | 1019287 Matto
Matto's picture

I noticed recently on some of the financial news sites i rage on that the majority of readers were aware of what I was going on about and that it was becuase of the work of the team at positivemoney.org.uk having organised people to get out there and write a few comments and put some links up. What I also noticed was that we commentators were peppering the same financial websites over and over and I realised that if we could expand our reach beyond the financial press we have the chance to open a lot of eyes! I believe that we don't need the MSM to get onboard with this - its obvious they won't, we  only need a concerted effort by a small group to really make a big impact!

 

And that is what fightclub and this site is really all about!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:50 | 1019339 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I think rage and anger is counter productive, but I fully understand what you are saying. What is it exactly that we are doing here other than mutual masturbation?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:04 | 1019404 Michael
Michael's picture

I'M repeating this so you and others can see it CD and maybe do something about it. I agree withe the previous poster about cross blogging the same thing on different blogs. It works.

What can we do to get everyone who is unemployed to apply for a job so they can be counted in U3?

How can we get the word out using social networking sites to apply for a job that will be legitimately counted in the BLS statistics?

I apply for unemployment compensation every 6 months even though I know I will not get it because I am not eligible for it, just so I can be counted and not put in the U6.

What can we do?

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:29 | 1019558 Matto
Matto's picture

Spread the word - 2 comments  that reach a wider audiance, copy and paste if you want! 

 

Cog Dis - i used raging when perhaps I should use rail against - no point getting to excited!

 

Question - why is it that the hacking group anonymous can be so successful> just organisation!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:37 | 1019860 Michael
Michael's picture

I'm going to crossblog "Project BLS Mayhem" on Infowars.com.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:26 | 1019813 Andre
Andre's picture

I can see why you would feel it is "mutual [intellectual] masturbation", but the site is fairly well known among the alternative media/blog sites. It was a link at an aggregator that brought me here, for example.

Zero Hedge appears to exist to provide a public forum for observations, commentary and analysis, backed by fact (though some might disagree) concerning issues affecting the sphere of business and economics. It seems well respected, enough that even Bernanke felt he had to respond to it at one point, if I recall correctly.

The issue of going to "John Q. Public" is not merely one of marketing. I am fairly certain, on the basis of watching my son's schools and others, that basic economics and business are not well taught, or are taught from an ideological rather than logical or practical perspective. Almost all the stuff you take for granted is an arcane mystery to the rest - even the acronyms. BTFD? MIC (KEY)? TPTB? You know what they mean, and I learned, but it is possible that, to "go the next step", you are talking about providing a basic primer on economics, the data, the interpretation, starting with "Why does it matter? How does this information actually help me, John Q.?" The people here see the world and what is happening differently than most.

The other possibility for making a difference might be to market things to decision makers. I remember an old friend of mine who wrote a C compiler "back when". He sold it for 10 dollars in 1979. He was told he needed to raise the price to $50 to get people to take it seriously. He did - and sales took off. Unfortunately, the most influential decision makers seem unlikely to change the concepts guiding their ideas.

I wish you luck, and I look forward to your article.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 16:14 | 1020010 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I did not say "go the next step" nor anything else that you have quoted above. I said "And I make the case for precisely that, that it's time to move out and make a difference." I am simply talking about discussing how this community can and should begin to move as one based upon the Fight Club" theme of Zero Hedge. I offered no guidance for how that should be accomplished.

I see you've been here for 7 weeks. Are you familiar with the body of my work here over the last 1 and 1/2 years? I never speak about stocks or business or even how to fix the system. I speak all the time about psychology and self deception and of finding the answers within. That is the point of view I bring to all my articles and which I will bring to this subject.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 17:51 | 1020483 Andre
Andre's picture

With the exception of the word intellectual, only the first set of quotes is the only directly quoted material. "Go the next step" was quoted as a figure of speech That was a palpable editorial error, and the rest was an assumption. I apologize, and I did not intend to misrepresent you.

I assumed "making a difference" meant doing so at some more public level, a level beyond the forum in the form of knowledge, hence my comments. Again, my oversight. Getting the group here to work together would seem to be herding cats, but (assuming that is what you meant) it sounds like fun to consider.

Retiring to lurker status while I look over your previous work.

Best-

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 16:17 | 1020026 tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

i've been going macro (radio shows) and micro (people i encounter stylists cashiers ect..)... people either like it or hate it... ski charlifts are good too

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 17:48 | 1020497 ConfusedIdiot
ConfusedIdiot's picture

How to Start a Revolution with a Thank You

How to Say Thank you:  Over 3million New Yorkers on Food Stamps
% by Population in Each NYC Borrough
Queens 11% .......................... 253,000
Bronx 29% ............................  386,000
Staten Island 10% .................   49,000
Manhattan 14%  ....................228,000
Brooklyn 22%  ........................564,000
          1,480,000 Hungry Folks for lunch

How about one million -1,000,000- take a half hour subway ride and meet for a BYOL "free lunch" between Trinity Church & NYSE next Friday 1:00PM
we can all walk over to JPMorgan Chase and thank 'em for running such a great SNAP program.
Last year it was worth $4.2 billion to the JPMorgan Chase.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:21 | 1019509 velobabe
velobabe's picture

øH

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:41 | 1019301 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

Upton Sinclair

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:45 | 1019322 Matto
Matto's picture

And when his salary is gone>> What impediments does he suffer then?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:55 | 1019369 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Once the scales are removed from his eyes, he realizes how empty and bereft his soul is.  All the things that made him feel important and powerful are stripped from him and all the material goods he has obtained are nothing more than dirty bribes to keep him happy in his station and in truth, he was no better than a road side hooker or a dime bag drug dealer.

Unless he's a clinical sociopath that is, which more than likely... 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:59 | 1019383 Michael
Michael's picture

deleated

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:50 | 1019050 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

no no no, those people don't count anymore. Written down! Off the books! Obsolete!

8,9%

Eat the government cookies and drink their milk.

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:55 | 1019070 centerline
centerline's picture

At some point, unemployment, by virtue of it's calculation metholody, can effectively go to zero while actual unemployment becomes 100%.  Can anyone say "banana republic?"  Come on... I know you can.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:18 | 1019187 Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

+1

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:50 | 1019350 jowenchrist
jowenchrist's picture

BANANA REPUBLIC !

BANANA REPUBLIC !

BANANA REPUBLIC !

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:55 | 1019074 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Clearly what must be happening is that 700k left the labor market because the stock market rise has made them so fantastically wealthy they no longer feel they must work.  Maybe that is the Bernanke wealth effect, he'll make us all billionaires and we won't need jobs so they can be outsourced entirely.

/sarc

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:14 | 1019175 centerline
centerline's picture

Just about two weeks ago, some gas station guy (I can't recall exactly where I was - suffice it so say it was a real J6P I was talking to) mentioned how the stock market was up and his 401k was looking better - so something must be going right!  Of course he still had a job and was busy fixing used cars.

Anyhow, when the SHTF, there are going to be alot of pissed off people.  They are going to awake all at once at some moment when they realize they have been screwed.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:23 | 1019206 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

your poll of 1 is likely representative of a majority of Americans

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:50 | 1019354 Rainman
Rainman's picture

My salesman bro-in-law takes naivete to a whole new level. He admits to not following any news at all.....it depresses him. His world hums right along. His moods are shaped by the reporting on ESPN. Catastrophy for him is an NFL strike.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 22:53 | 1021270 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

and why not?  Life is short.  It is a waste to spend it worrying and feeling pessimistic.  There are tons of girls out there to screw, so little time.

Beer still tastes good.  And if TEOTWAWKI doesnt occur many people will have wasted their years in worry when they could have been having fun.  You only go around once.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:56 | 1019078 Matto
Matto's picture

WE ARE ALL TYLER DURDEN

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:00 | 1019103 Matto
Matto's picture

It is time for Zerohedge to move beyond the financial blogoshere. It is time to enact Project Mayhem. 

 

Our homework this week is to re-educate the masses by submitting a brief explanation of the effects of Fractional Reserve Banking to the comments section of 2 popular non-financial blogs, any blogs so long as they are non-financial & mainstream popular.

 

Example comment to cut and paste to come shortly.

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:12 | 1019169 Matto
Matto's picture

It's time to end Debt-Money! 

Through a process known as Fractional Reserve Banking, private banks get the right to create our money out of nothing in the form of debt. This debt-money they lend out to the public as loans and the cost of which is born through-out our society.

 

When banks create this money they loan it out at interest, meaning that while they created it out of nothing we trade our labour and time for other peoples 'loan-tickets' to repay them. And as it is loaned at interest, it requires more debt money to be created to make the additional interest portion. As such we are locked into an ever increasing debt trap, beholden to the banks for the very money we use while the banks profit from the fruits of our labour in the repayment of interest on make-believe money. For everyone who saves a dollar, another person must be a dollar further in debt.

More information is available through:

Money as debt

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2550156453790090544#

www.positivemoney.co.uk

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional-reserve_banking

If all bank loans were paid...there would not be a dollar of coin or currency in circulation. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.

Robert A. Hemphill Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank

 

Banks lend by creating credit. They create the means of payment out of nothing

Ralph M Hawtrey, Secretary of the Treasury, UK

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:13 | 1019173 Matto
Matto's picture

COPY - PASTE!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:12 | 1019447 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Thank you for the video links!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:31 | 1019565 Matto
Matto's picture

spread the word!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:43 | 1019888 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Let's remember they also used the fractional reserve "method" when we had a gold standard, which led to FDR's gold confiscation act.

If some consider it insane to force banks to keep 10% reserve, I wonder what they would think about the reserves that back up derivatives?

No wonder Jamie D is pushing for NO capital reserves at all.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:23 | 1019215 Robert-Paulson
Robert-Paulson's picture

Ha!!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:20 | 1019193 Triggernometry
Triggernometry's picture

At least until we end up as Robert Paulson

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:56 | 1019079 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

should i be bullish on food stamps?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:23 | 1019208 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

I guess they are printed on different printing presses....  Oh wait, they are issued on debit cards run by JPMorgan.  Nice profit for them too.

 

Get long JPM...oh wait....they suck.....

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:58 | 1019091 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Jobs? we dont need no stinking Jobs!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:04 | 1019123 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

By jobs you mean Ipads right?

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:59 | 1019093 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

So far, the XRT has been pretty much unfazed by Rosenberg's constant dire predictions.

I'm going to go short big, but only when the market tells me it is time to do so.

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:02 | 1019111 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Robo 

 

Could you post the video of prechter, rossie, farrell, panzer ect .......

 

Getting thrown from that pickup truck, that was classic ... Lol'

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:21 | 1019197 centerline
centerline's picture

Dis-associating from the actual carnage of that scene - it was one of the classic posts around here.  I almost lost my lunch laughing at that one.  It was especially "touching" for those of us who got short too early only to throw some cash into the furnance.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:29 | 1019210 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

32.05--ALL TIME LOW

Every GM long is a loser, literally.

Every GM short is a winner.

WWCSD?

Win....and win again.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:25 | 1019219 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Please Robo -

 

I know you do not like Spalding that much but, please .... It was classic humor.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:58 | 1019096 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Tyler ....

 

How many illegal aliens draw unemployment, thanks.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:46 | 1019328 jowenchrist
jowenchrist's picture

blah blah blah - we give a shit that "illegals" get an unemployment check - but we're blind bitchez when it comes to the Corporate whores and WallStreet bankstaz steal us blind each and every day - go figya -

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:09 | 1019153 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Rosie "gets it" while Ben prints it.

Let's put ZH on TV now! Make the sheeple aware of reality!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:16 | 1019181 Matto
Matto's picture

SEE MY COMMENTS ABOVE

 

PROJECT MAYHEM BITCHES!!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:13 | 1019171 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Is there a freeway exit, or mall entrance that does not have a beggar with a sign? They are looking less scruffy, and more ex middleclass to me. SIGN= OFF U3, please help God bless!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:17 | 1019186 Matto
Matto's picture

PROJECT

 

MAYHEM!!!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:16 | 1019179 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

And my "Metrosexual ETF" also remains relatively unfazed today.

WFMI

ANF

SBUX

COH

They are hardly selling off....

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:23 | 1019211 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

$5 gallon gas giddy-ups a bag of hurt at starbucks and whole foods.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:18 | 1019190 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Still not seeing much downside, but I'm still waiting for lower lows and lower highs.

Not happening yet.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:25 | 1019224 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

You were MUCH more interesting when you posted pics of the hot chicks...

 

now all i see is.....blah, blah, blah

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 22:51 | 1021265 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

I second that.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:22 | 1019207 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

There is a concerted effort in the MSM as well as a great many in the blog world to always present financial news as better than expected. This has become profoundly scary for me. It is a if most that have a reputation to uphold have all been brainwashed and lobotomized. - Or, are most ZH readers brainwashed?

Case in point today.

I watched a few minutes of the job reports release commentary at SNBS with Diane Swonk, the tool from Moody's, Liesman and Santeli. Other than Santeli who had a neutral interpretation of the report everyone focused on the numbers as if they are real as reported. Can it really be professional denial? What are we seeing that they are not? Why are ZH readers interpreting these reports differently on a grand scale.

Surely one group is clearly wrong. What chance do most non financially interested citizens have of understanding this stuff when the MSM and financial professionals continually paint this rosy picture of economic recovery?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:24 | 1019218 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

SEE ROBO-TRADER....

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:25 | 1019220 Matto
Matto's picture

Re-education through confrontation! See my comments above - We Are All Tyler Durden!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:31 | 1019255 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

I don't believe Niall Feruguson is a Zh'er but he doesn't buy the govt's data. David Rosenberg isn't a ZH'er either and his summary says it all.

This may be of interest to you...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/03/hillary-clinton-calls-al-_n_830...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:01 | 1019389 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  The key is to get news from all sources, dissect and synthesize, then you get a picture. ZH is a better news source on relevant matters than the MSM, but it is not the end-all-be-all..

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:47 | 1019904 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

You should be happy every minute of every day until you wake up one morning to discover everything's been stolen from under you.

And NOBODY saw it coming.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 22:50 | 1021262 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

Are we so sure that average people aren't better off than many seem to believe on zero hedge?  I am not the only business that has found college kids less and less interested in working.  They must be fairly well off nowadays as opposed to when I went to school.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:24 | 1019222 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

DOW 10k hats - dust 'em off, bitchez.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:26 | 1019225 tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

another reason that utah has introduced a bill to use gold and silver as legal tender... lack of trust in the "truth" from the fed.  silver son, get sum! $35.23 on netdania

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/03/utah-considers-return-gold-si...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:26 | 1019226 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Dow down 162 points and still falling. Looks like nobody cares that the US economy is creating more jobs. 

The whole shooting match going straight into the shitter where it belongs. Oil over $105? Today?

I see -350 on the Dow today. The correction is long overdue. If not today, Dow 11,500 by St. Paddy's Day (March 17). Paid your taxes yet? No? Good, don't bother. Washington is closed for business.

Keep your money, buy more silver, or gold, if you have that much money.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:06 | 1019417 Rainman
Rainman's picture

The real news today is a growing rumor that the Fed may very well remove foot from gas on July 1. The rest is noise. I personally don't believe it, but just the rumor will awaken the shorts from their slumber.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:51 | 1019919 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Every so often someone from the Fed threatens to reduce the amount of money being skimmed off by the big banks, then they quickly regain their senses.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:25 | 1019227 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Couple of gas stations in Sarasota are out of reg.

Let the gas lines form!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:31 | 1019261 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Well, at least in FL you can walk, unless you're 90, like a lot of folks down there.

Up here in Rochester, NY, plenty of gas, at $3.55 a gallon. Up about 30 cents in the past 10 days. WTF?

How much is regular everywhere else?

 

POST YOUR GAS PRICES!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:38 | 1019290 jowenchrist
jowenchrist's picture

$3.49 - 3.61

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:38 | 1019295 jowenchrist
jowenchrist's picture

and that b in NC,ussa

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:43 | 1019319 SilverFiend
SilverFiend's picture

3.45 just outside DC in Virginia.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 17:51 | 1020507 Dabale arroz a ...
Dabale arroz a la zorra el abad's picture

Hey, in Spain it costs almost 1,3€/l. Which means approx 4,9€/gallon. That would be more or less 6,88$/gal. Almost everywhere else in Europe it is more expensive.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:28 | 1019237 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Maybe nobody noticed, because CNBC doesn't like to talk about these things, but that big drop on Tuesday was a double engulfing session, taking out the previous two days' highs and lows on the S&P and Dow. Classic key reversal signal.

Yesterday's pump job was just for the insiders.

Today's drop is for everybody to enjoy.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:30 | 1019257 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Nah, the SPOOS will bounce on 1311.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:36 | 1019284 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

You may be right, but it will never hold, long term. Stocks overbought, overpriced and overhyped. Head for the bunker. This thing's gonna crash.

Dow heading fast for 12000. Next stop? Maybe 11,400, then straight back to 10K.

There are almost no shorts in the market due to QE2, so the smart guys (Lord Blankfien and his minions) are going to make bank on this demolition move.

Also, the housing thingy in permanently SNAFU. No more foreclosures because the banks can't take further losses, even with mark to unicorn butts.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:29 | 1019241 Robert-Paulson
Robert-Paulson's picture

NWO,

 

I asked the exact same question to myself today

 

Why aren't the masses waking up? Or at least some of them

 

Most of our country, like you said, is in denial and is banking on the idea that "everything will be ok"....Like it always has

But, they are sad...Kinda of like a poor battered woman that keeps going back to the drunk husband who just beat the shit out of her and she says, "He meant it out of love and promises to never do it again."

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:47 | 1019334 Matto
Matto's picture

No one has shown them yet Bob, homework - 2 comments, Cut & Paste!!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:05 | 1019409 captain sunshine
captain sunshine's picture

"I deceive you...still you love me......I'm the cult of personality!!!!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:46 | 1019297 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

It sure would be great to see a study/report on the 700,000. 

I don't see a large rise in the homeless, especially the from the 99'rs.  Food stamps are way up but that doesn't mean you're not working.

The baby boomers are reaching retirement age, if the trend is that they will increase in numbers and drop out in equal proportion this is very important.

I see previously two incomes families living on one in increasing numbers, running the gamete of reasons, and of course young adults unable to leave home has to be a part of the puzzle, but how much? Once the cuts to higher education take effect this may spell the biggest problem of all. 

We all know how restless male "utes" are homegrown terrorists as it is and a dramatic increase in their restlessness is what leads to a lot of short term distruction and even more long term mental health problems. 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:55 | 1019371 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

You are correct with all your points. But when will all this be recognized and counted. It seems as if the powers that be  do not want to go there. I am not seeing the kind of hiring we need to even begin to talk about job recovery.

A long time ago (over 10+ years) I worked at a mid size high tech manufacturer where my staff hired 1900 people in one year, with 500 of those jobs being techs and engineers making over $50k per year.

Those jobs are gone and have not been replaced. These are the statistics that do not register with the MSM or the under 35 year olds. You tell someone that your company hired 1900 people in one year and you get a blank stare. Its as if the wheels have stopped turning.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:17 | 1019490 PeterSchump
PeterSchump's picture

Pop tarts (read LiLo and her ilk), gay cowboys (not that there is anything wrong with that) and washed up actors banging porn sluts are higher up in the social pecking order than engineers.  So why in the hell would anyone want to hire them?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:54 | 1019933 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

The jobs will come flooding back into the US when our average manufacturing labor wage is less than Vietnam's. And don't think we're not heading there.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 22:44 | 1021256 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

People are deciding they would rather live on one family income and have more free time.  College kids are deciding to spend less and cut back on their lifestyles.  Otherwise I don't understand why it has become so hard these last two years to get college kids to work for me.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:01 | 1019385 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Robo is right about the stocks he has picked to highlight...But BANKSTERS in trouble  citibank down through huge support at 4.55   Goldman Sucks breaking down too. Next JP shit am short silver is going to roll-over...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:09 | 1019428 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Does the BLS count part time workers?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:37 | 1019591 Magic Mamaliga
Magic Mamaliga's picture

The hard part is finding someone willing to dig deeper. Most people i've begun to talk about this with, when opportunities have risen, tend to choose to ignore the info.  It took me months to get a fuller understanding of the nature of the beast.  Getting people informed is something that can be done and made to be appealing, but not to all.  This cause would resemble more of a recruitment drive than anything else, there would be no widespread "revival" of logic and careful analysis, only few will want to affect change. 

Seeing the rape and pillage of the middleclass, whether caused by bad luck or bad intention, and wanting to do something about it speaks to the values one holds.  Many of us have different opinions but all understand that the system is bankrupt, morally & economically and can agree and attest to the fact.  But, informing the masses is a task fraught with uncertainties and powerful opponents.

Above all, credibility would have to be the integral foundation of any cohesive movement.  Credibility would have to be protected at all costs.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:56 | 1019947 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

It's neither bad luck nor bad intention, especially if you look at it from the perspective of the people who planned it.

Look at where the money's went over the past 30 years, then tell me if luck had anything to do with it.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 19:50 | 1020904 MountainHawk
MountainHawk's picture

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/04/radhey-shyam-roy-india-executive-burned-to-death_n_831655.html

 

Radhey Shyam Roy, Indian Executive Burned To Death By Fired Workers

What are the chances of something like this ever happening in the US...

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 23:19 | 1021316 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

I don't understand why people feel that they are owed a job by someone else.  None of us owe anyone a job.  That kind of entitled thinking is what is really wrong with people.  Why is it always someone else's responsibility to make sure you have a job? I really am curious as to a person's thinking if they really do believe that it is someone's responsibility to provide them with a job.  Where does that entitlement come from?

 

Whether I am a rich executive or a shoe shine boy I don't see why some people feel that I owe them anything.

I use the "you" in the general sense.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 22:42 | 1021251 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

I run a business that hires part time college students for various tasks.  It has become harder and harder to employ anyone.  Apparently they don't need to work!  I have a hard time understanding how people are supposedly so desperate for jobs when I offer 10 to 15 an hour for part time work and can hardly get one or two applicants from the local college.

I suspect people are downscaling and spending less so they don't have to work as much.  many people have found that they can live on the income of one spouse with careful budgeting and spending, especially when a lot of that second spouse income would be eaten up by child care anyway.

I think this is a real secular trend to simplify and downscale lifestyles so that people don't have to work as much, so I really do believe the u3 numbers.  I believe that many people now would rather not work and trim their family budget aggressively.   The result is that total population employment will be permanently lower like it was in the fifties and early sixties.  It doesn't signify depression but a lifestyle choice to get by with less rather than accept the available jobs at the available wages.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 22:47 | 1021259 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

I really do believe the millenials and generation Y don't really want to work and prefer free time over material possessions.

Sat, 03/05/2011 - 03:07 | 1021598 Aceuphisleev
Aceuphisleev's picture

As one of them I can at least partly validate your comment.  A lot of us were raised on the promise of the American Dream and led to believe we were entitled to really glamorous careers after college.  My first couple years working after graduation were very sobering, and the financial crisis hasn't helped much.  The combination of a bleak outlook for economic growth and this desire not to have to do hard work is making many of us value life experiences and free time over material possessions.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 23:24 | 1021328 stoverny
stoverny's picture

Quote from tonight's NBC news: "While the lower 8.9% unemployment rate is good news, analysts caution that the rate may actually go back UP as discouraged workers re-enter the workforce."

So if this statement is true... why is the 8.9% rate good news in the first place???  The ONLY figure that matters is how many people are out of work.  A 7% unemployment rate with 5% "discouraged and not looking" is EXACTLY the same as a 12% unemployment rate.  The spin on these numbers is just amazing, and Americans are such sheep they just believe it is good news because that's what the nice TV lady tells them.

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 23:28 | 1021337 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

I suppose it is good news because the trend is in the right direction even if unemployment is still allegedly too high.

Sun, 03/06/2011 - 01:54 | 1023100 pokrd
pokrd's picture

There is also a long term impact on the high unemployment rate, almost 20% of children in America are living in poverty.

The economy needs to have jobs growing at this rate for awhile for a recovery to be certain. 

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 20:37 | 1028053 lsjcma
lsjcma's picture

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