David Rosenberg's Explanation Why The Real Unemployment Rate (U-3) Is 12%

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Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:49 | 1019047 Cognitive Dissonance
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The truth is never obvious to those who are paid to look the other way or for those who are too frightened or willfully blind to look.....period.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:00 | 1019099 Rogerwilco
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Right now I'm feeling like Pontius Pilate in that scene from "The Passion" where he washes his hands and mutters "Qui est veritas?" This week, and the past two months for that matter, make no sense.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:32 | 1019269 RunningMan
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Just the last two months? I feel like the last three years (!) don't make sense. Print some paper to cover up the shadow banking collapse, control the media to prevent anyone from expressing a mood other than wild optimism, punt the equity indeces to the moon, and watch the world burn.  I mean seriously - this was the plan?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:59 | 1019387 Michael
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What can we do to get everyone who is unemployed to apply for a job so they can be counted in U3?

How can we get the word out using social networking sites to apply for a job that will be legitimately counted in the BLS statistics?

I apply for unemployment compensation every 6 months even though I know I will not get it because I am not eligible for it, just so I can be counted and not put in the U6.

What can we do?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:16 | 1019471 LoneCapitalist
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Who is John Galt?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:19 | 1019499 Michael
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This could be a ZH "Project BLS Mayhem" activity all ZH's can participate in by spreading the word to do this.

We could have a sticky on the sidebar about it.

What can go wrong? Some people will find a job?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 16:15 | 1020014 tellsometruth
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not the best idea but not the worst either...i like the free thinking though

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:10 | 1019743 FreeMoney Bernie
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and the bankers and money changers keep yelling give us Bernanke give us Bernanke

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:11 | 1019116 AN0NYM0US
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Rosie, it's really too bad that more people don't take your work seriously. I don't know why, maybe your 500 point rounding error on where the S&P was headed. Also Rosie what's your view on Drew Matus's perspective on the incredible shrinking labor force? 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-07/aging-baby-boomers-reduce-u-s-u...

 

PS don't lose heart Rosie - $4 gas may help to restore your credibility

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:10 | 1019435 CrashisOptimistic
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Your analysis and Matus' analysis is pathetically weak.

US population growth per year 1% or 3ish million people or about 280K/mo.

Number of people turning 65 per year is about 150K-200K/month from this link

http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=461288

This boomer retiring theory does therefore NOT explain loss of labor participation.  The number of people (from census.gov) aged 15-19 yrs is 11 million.  Age 60-64 is 7 million.  More enter the workforce from the low end than leave it at the top end.

 

 

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:36 | 1019574 AN0NYM0US
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I see what your mean, sorry for linking to Matus' perspective.  I guess he missed all those 15 year olds entering the workforce. I gotta be more careful with who I cite. That google answers seems like a great resource almost as good as wikipedia. Thanks again.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:57 | 1019680 CrashisOptimistic
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Dood, even your sarcasm is weak.  And btw, BLS considers 16 the lower end of the workforce.  Not 18.  

Moron.

The google answers data derived from census.gov.

Moron rev 2.0.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:23 | 1019205 Matto
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Cog Diss, you are well respected and followed here on 0H, could you help to make a push for Zero Hedgers to start putting the word out there online to reach the masses and build awareness ala my comments below? 

If the MSM wont come to us then maybe its time we took it to them! 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:29 | 1019249 Cognitive Dissonance
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Interesting that you would say that now. I saw your comment below.

I'm currently working on an article about "Zero Hedge" itself, about it's purpose and our purpose for being here. And I make the case for precisely that, that it's time to move out and make a difference. It's still in the oven and about a week from completion.

As usual it will ruffle some feathers and spark a few cognitive dissonances.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:37 | 1019287 Matto
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I noticed recently on some of the financial news sites i rage on that the majority of readers were aware of what I was going on about and that it was becuase of the work of the team at positivemoney.org.uk having organised people to get out there and write a few comments and put some links up. What I also noticed was that we commentators were peppering the same financial websites over and over and I realised that if we could expand our reach beyond the financial press we have the chance to open a lot of eyes! I believe that we don't need the MSM to get onboard with this - its obvious they won't, we  only need a concerted effort by a small group to really make a big impact!

 

And that is what fightclub and this site is really all about!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:50 | 1019339 Cognitive Dissonance
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I think rage and anger is counter productive, but I fully understand what you are saying. What is it exactly that we are doing here other than mutual masturbation?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:04 | 1019404 Michael
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I'M repeating this so you and others can see it CD and maybe do something about it. I agree withe the previous poster about cross blogging the same thing on different blogs. It works.

What can we do to get everyone who is unemployed to apply for a job so they can be counted in U3?

How can we get the word out using social networking sites to apply for a job that will be legitimately counted in the BLS statistics?

I apply for unemployment compensation every 6 months even though I know I will not get it because I am not eligible for it, just so I can be counted and not put in the U6.

What can we do?

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:29 | 1019558 Matto
Matto's picture

Spread the word - 2 comments  that reach a wider audiance, copy and paste if you want! 

 

Cog Dis - i used raging when perhaps I should use rail against - no point getting to excited!

 

Question - why is it that the hacking group anonymous can be so successful> just organisation!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:37 | 1019860 Michael
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I'm going to crossblog "Project BLS Mayhem" on Infowars.com.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:26 | 1019813 Andre
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I can see why you would feel it is "mutual [intellectual] masturbation", but the site is fairly well known among the alternative media/blog sites. It was a link at an aggregator that brought me here, for example.

Zero Hedge appears to exist to provide a public forum for observations, commentary and analysis, backed by fact (though some might disagree) concerning issues affecting the sphere of business and economics. It seems well respected, enough that even Bernanke felt he had to respond to it at one point, if I recall correctly.

The issue of going to "John Q. Public" is not merely one of marketing. I am fairly certain, on the basis of watching my son's schools and others, that basic economics and business are not well taught, or are taught from an ideological rather than logical or practical perspective. Almost all the stuff you take for granted is an arcane mystery to the rest - even the acronyms. BTFD? MIC (KEY)? TPTB? You know what they mean, and I learned, but it is possible that, to "go the next step", you are talking about providing a basic primer on economics, the data, the interpretation, starting with "Why does it matter? How does this information actually help me, John Q.?" The people here see the world and what is happening differently than most.

The other possibility for making a difference might be to market things to decision makers. I remember an old friend of mine who wrote a C compiler "back when". He sold it for 10 dollars in 1979. He was told he needed to raise the price to $50 to get people to take it seriously. He did - and sales took off. Unfortunately, the most influential decision makers seem unlikely to change the concepts guiding their ideas.

I wish you luck, and I look forward to your article.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 16:14 | 1020010 Cognitive Dissonance
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I did not say "go the next step" nor anything else that you have quoted above. I said "And I make the case for precisely that, that it's time to move out and make a difference." I am simply talking about discussing how this community can and should begin to move as one based upon the Fight Club" theme of Zero Hedge. I offered no guidance for how that should be accomplished.

I see you've been here for 7 weeks. Are you familiar with the body of my work here over the last 1 and 1/2 years? I never speak about stocks or business or even how to fix the system. I speak all the time about psychology and self deception and of finding the answers within. That is the point of view I bring to all my articles and which I will bring to this subject.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 17:51 | 1020483 Andre
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With the exception of the word intellectual, only the first set of quotes is the only directly quoted material. "Go the next step" was quoted as a figure of speech That was a palpable editorial error, and the rest was an assumption. I apologize, and I did not intend to misrepresent you.

I assumed "making a difference" meant doing so at some more public level, a level beyond the forum in the form of knowledge, hence my comments. Again, my oversight. Getting the group here to work together would seem to be herding cats, but (assuming that is what you meant) it sounds like fun to consider.

Retiring to lurker status while I look over your previous work.

Best-

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 16:17 | 1020026 tellsometruth
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i've been going macro (radio shows) and micro (people i encounter stylists cashiers ect..)... people either like it or hate it... ski charlifts are good too

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 17:48 | 1020497 ConfusedIdiot
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How to Start a Revolution with a Thank You

How to Say Thank you:  Over 3million New Yorkers on Food Stamps
% by Population in Each NYC Borrough
Queens 11% .......................... 253,000
Bronx 29% ............................  386,000
Staten Island 10% .................   49,000
Manhattan 14%  ....................228,000
Brooklyn 22%  ........................564,000
          1,480,000 Hungry Folks for lunch

How about one million -1,000,000- take a half hour subway ride and meet for a BYOL "free lunch" between Trinity Church & NYSE next Friday 1:00PM
we can all walk over to JPMorgan Chase and thank 'em for running such a great SNAP program.
Last year it was worth $4.2 billion to the JPMorgan Chase.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:21 | 1019509 velobabe
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øH

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:41 | 1019301 A Man without Q...
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"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

Upton Sinclair

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:45 | 1019322 Matto
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And when his salary is gone>> What impediments does he suffer then?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:55 | 1019369 A Man without Q...
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Once the scales are removed from his eyes, he realizes how empty and bereft his soul is.  All the things that made him feel important and powerful are stripped from him and all the material goods he has obtained are nothing more than dirty bribes to keep him happy in his station and in truth, he was no better than a road side hooker or a dime bag drug dealer.

Unless he's a clinical sociopath that is, which more than likely... 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:59 | 1019383 Michael
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deleated

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:50 | 1019050 Sudden Debt
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no no no, those people don't count anymore. Written down! Off the books! Obsolete!

8,9%

Eat the government cookies and drink their milk.

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:55 | 1019070 centerline
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At some point, unemployment, by virtue of it's calculation metholody, can effectively go to zero while actual unemployment becomes 100%.  Can anyone say "banana republic?"  Come on... I know you can.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:18 | 1019187 Founders Keeper
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+1

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:50 | 1019350 jowenchrist
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BANANA REPUBLIC !

BANANA REPUBLIC !

BANANA REPUBLIC !

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:55 | 1019074 Shameful
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Clearly what must be happening is that 700k left the labor market because the stock market rise has made them so fantastically wealthy they no longer feel they must work.  Maybe that is the Bernanke wealth effect, he'll make us all billionaires and we won't need jobs so they can be outsourced entirely.

/sarc

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:14 | 1019175 centerline
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Just about two weeks ago, some gas station guy (I can't recall exactly where I was - suffice it so say it was a real J6P I was talking to) mentioned how the stock market was up and his 401k was looking better - so something must be going right!  Of course he still had a job and was busy fixing used cars.

Anyhow, when the SHTF, there are going to be alot of pissed off people.  They are going to awake all at once at some moment when they realize they have been screwed.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:23 | 1019206 AN0NYM0US
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your poll of 1 is likely representative of a majority of Americans

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:50 | 1019354 Rainman
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My salesman bro-in-law takes naivete to a whole new level. He admits to not following any news at all.....it depresses him. His world hums right along. His moods are shaped by the reporting on ESPN. Catastrophy for him is an NFL strike.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 22:53 | 1021270 Gold 36000
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and why not?  Life is short.  It is a waste to spend it worrying and feeling pessimistic.  There are tons of girls out there to screw, so little time.

Beer still tastes good.  And if TEOTWAWKI doesnt occur many people will have wasted their years in worry when they could have been having fun.  You only go around once.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:56 | 1019078 Matto
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WE ARE ALL TYLER DURDEN

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:00 | 1019103 Matto
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It is time for Zerohedge to move beyond the financial blogoshere. It is time to enact Project Mayhem. 

 

Our homework this week is to re-educate the masses by submitting a brief explanation of the effects of Fractional Reserve Banking to the comments section of 2 popular non-financial blogs, any blogs so long as they are non-financial & mainstream popular.

 

Example comment to cut and paste to come shortly.

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:12 | 1019169 Matto
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It's time to end Debt-Money! 

Through a process known as Fractional Reserve Banking, private banks get the right to create our money out of nothing in the form of debt. This debt-money they lend out to the public as loans and the cost of which is born through-out our society.

 

When banks create this money they loan it out at interest, meaning that while they created it out of nothing we trade our labour and time for other peoples 'loan-tickets' to repay them. And as it is loaned at interest, it requires more debt money to be created to make the additional interest portion. As such we are locked into an ever increasing debt trap, beholden to the banks for the very money we use while the banks profit from the fruits of our labour in the repayment of interest on make-believe money. For everyone who saves a dollar, another person must be a dollar further in debt.

More information is available through:

Money as debt

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2550156453790090544#

www.positivemoney.co.uk

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional-reserve_banking

If all bank loans were paid...there would not be a dollar of coin or currency in circulation. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.

Robert A. Hemphill Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank

 

Banks lend by creating credit. They create the means of payment out of nothing

Ralph M Hawtrey, Secretary of the Treasury, UK

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:13 | 1019173 Matto
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COPY - PASTE!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:12 | 1019447 PulauHantu29
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Thank you for the video links!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 14:31 | 1019565 Matto
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spread the word!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 15:43 | 1019888 MrBoompi
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Let's remember they also used the fractional reserve "method" when we had a gold standard, which led to FDR's gold confiscation act.

If some consider it insane to force banks to keep 10% reserve, I wonder what they would think about the reserves that back up derivatives?

No wonder Jamie D is pushing for NO capital reserves at all.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:23 | 1019215 Robert-Paulson
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Ha!!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:20 | 1019193 Triggernometry
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At least until we end up as Robert Paulson

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:56 | 1019079 camaro68ss
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should i be bullish on food stamps?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:23 | 1019208 curbyourrisk
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I guess they are printed on different printing presses....  Oh wait, they are issued on debit cards run by JPMorgan.  Nice profit for them too.

 

Get long JPM...oh wait....they suck.....

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 12:58 | 1019091 JW n FL
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Jobs? we dont need no stinking Jobs!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!