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The Day The Yen Carry Trade Died

Tyler Durden's picture





 

While everyone is staring in disbelief at the USDJPY, the real carry action is in the high yielding-YEN pairs, i.e., the development, high growing countries. And it's a massacre: ZARJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY - all are plunging far more than the USD. This is nothing short of a complete carry trade unwind. The implications: the cheapest recurring source of funding for risk assets - the Yen carry trade, is over. Those who managed to sell early on are lucky. The rest will get such an onslaught of margin calls tomorrow they may need to access the discount window (if Primary Dealers and the luckier banks). Many will be forced to sell assets to satisfy collateral requirements as ongoing sales of carry pairs push the Yen ever higher, and force ever more liquidity out of the market. And if the Yen carry trade is done, the question is when will the USD, which has also been a carry currency for some time, follow suit. And, once again, the most troubling observation is that the BOJ has not intervened. Our sinking feeling is that after pumping 50 trillion or so in money markets, the petty cash may be running quite low. In any case, ES opens in 2 minutes. Grab the popcorn now.

 

 


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Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:01 | Link to Comment etrader
etrader's picture

GS's FX desk are upside down is John notes are to be belived....

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

BELIEVED JUNIOR.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:45 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Can you say, "Black Swan event"?

I knew you could.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:03 | Link to Comment egdeh orez
egdeh orez's picture

Ok guys... calm down... this might not be over yet.

We've witnessed many, "can this be it" moments in the last two years.

What if the Japanese fix this "nuclear disaster" in the next 10 days and the Yen starts dropping like a rock?  In that scenario, the carry trade lives on, and it's business as usual (for the fed's printing press, of course).

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:25 | Link to Comment bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

didnt know they could clean up radioactivity that quick wow.

 

www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:31 | Link to Comment Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

The internet has really help solve a lot of problems.  Radioactivity isn't one of them though.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:33 | Link to Comment Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

The internet has really helped to solve a lot of problems.  Radioactivity isn't one of them though.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:26 | Link to Comment Goolie
Goolie's picture

It's not about the nuclear issue, it's about rebuilding a country.  Any non-yen denominated assets are being liquidated and the proceeds from those sales are being re-patriated.  Back in 1995 following the Kobe quake, the Yen appreciated 17% over a 3 month period.  Was there a massively large carry trade back then?  I don't know how it compares to today, but this disaster will take far more capital to rebuild.  At some point the Central Bankers in Japan will try and slow down the appreciation...that will probably be an opportunity to add you your long Yen position should you be lucky enough to be long Yen currently.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:46 | Link to Comment Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Exactly right. 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:10 | Link to Comment CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Sorry to camp the top thread, but I think I am not alone in my confusion (I am not a trader/finance guy). I try to dilligently put this type of stuff together on my own, but I don't fully grasp this scenario. Please enlighten/correct me as I am struggling to connect the dots.

The carry trade is a borrow cheap/short term (e.g. the yen because of ZIRP) and lend longer in another currency which has higher rates with the spread being profit.

  • So all these firms out there with such obligations are clearly freaking the fsck out, buying all the yen they can get their hands on, and closing their yen denominated obligations?
  • If so, what is their motivation to do so, as it would seem that Japan is going to devalue if they do anything, making the debts cheaper to repay?
  • Does this mean they have to borrow in something else to replace the yen, such as the dollar?

Any thoughts from professionals/knowledgable parties would be great.

Thanks,

Cooter

 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:38 | Link to Comment FischerBlack
FischerBlack's picture

Borrow cheap, take risk. That means lend long, buy stocks, RE, commodities, whatever. When it unwinds, it looks a lot like fall 2008. Risk assets all correlate. They don't want to buy back yen, but they have to because they're short and it's going up like a rocket and they get margin calls. So they have to sell the other side of the trade to free up cash to go back to yen. It tanks everything.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:43 | Link to Comment CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Ok, so the margin call trigger is just a broad based decline or fear of decline in yen denominated assets, which were used as collateral in the carry trade? And once the cycle gets going, its a positive feedback?

Cooter

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:32 | Link to Comment steelhead23
steelhead23's picture

Cooter - you really deserve a reply from an FX player, but I'll give it a shot.  Did you notice Tyler's use of the term "margin call?"  Even if a Japanese bank is willing to let you lever your collateral 10 to 1, if the value of your collateral declines (as the dollar is doing relative to the yens you borrowed), they will ask you to meet your collateral obligations to reduce their risk.  So you are going to have to sell assets to meet your obligations - NOW.  Another aspect of this is that the value of a banks assets are currently falling like a rock, so if Bank A needs to raise capital to meet a margin call, its losses could be stunning and if Bank A is sick right now, its going to get sicker.

BTW - I don't know jack about FX, carry-trade, etc. but I do know this - from nuke plants to big banks, risk analysis routinely ignores black swans and I see a flock coming right this way.  Got gold?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:48 | Link to Comment CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Making this up as I go along here, but ... some hedge fund takes 100 bucks, borrows 1,000 yen at 0% short term, converts the yen into New Zealand dollars, and lends the NZD at 5%.

All made up, but need something to hang my hat on. So the short term yen debt gets rolled into perpetuity and the long term risk is maybe a new convenience store somewhere in New Zealand.

Black swan shows up and does a Pu on the people of Japan.

So this hedge fund gets a margin call on the short term loan (1000Y), forcing the hedge fund to buy yen (lets call it an additional 100Y pushing the collateral from 100Y to 200Y) on the open FX market (like all the other hedge funds in the same boat), driving the price of yen to the moon?

If this is the answer, I guess I just don't understand why the carry trade loans got margin called.

Regards,

Cooter

<minor edits to clarify>

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

I understand your question...

If the NZD 5% is still there, why the margin call ?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:21 | Link to Comment CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Yeah. I was operating on the assumption that the collateral in the short term debt was the longer term investment.

Maybe that isn't the case?

Cooter

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 21:02 | Link to Comment luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

Here is the deal.

You borrow yen at 0% or v. close and then leverage it 200x. the 5% don't mean shit with this kind of leverage when it goes against you.

invest in something else. If the value of the Yen goes up .5% you have lost ALL of your capital. Not some of it but ALL.

Now you will be margin called way befor that so....... basically it only has to go up .2% to get margin called and then you are out of business. done deal !

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:48 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Here's a little secret , sov debt is not debt - its money ( my interpretation yes).

It may appreciate or depreciate in value against Gold but it ain't debt in its truest form - at least it does not have to be.

I think the US could be losing its jewel in the crown here - its India if you will.

If Japan finally says fuck it we are not going to fund global speculation anymore because of its internal crisis and redirects resourses inwards and not be the client manufacturing colony of America and the world then the dollar could be truely fucked.

Remember fiat currencies value depend entirely on their yield potential - as they have already hyperinflated, if this characteristic is lost they are almost worthless.

I think we are watching the final death throws of the dollar here.

 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Tomorrow option exeration day will nuke ALL the markets.

People who didn't got out now got it comming.

 

Today I took a day off, and I bought food that holds for 6 months and enough bottled water for 3 months.

Whenever the radiation starts to move our way, I'm yet again going to stock in extra.

If I'm wrong, we'll be eating canned food for a while :)

And if I'm right, I'll be right.

 

Somehow, I've got a very very bad feeling about all of this.

 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

you're preparing for an asteroid attack presumably, not an economic one!

...as for the radiation it'll be slight for anyone outside Japan and there isn't anything you can do about it (canned food won't help any!)

what must happen is the series of political mistakes made by Japanese politicians are brought to book for this avoidable tragedy... just like they were held to account (cough!) in Washington for the nuclear disasters the US Govt made of US property, US healthcare and US education!!!

i'm sure Barney Frank, who let us not forget 'knows it all' and is the worlds leading expert on property, health and education, is minutes away from telling Japan how to sort out this little nuclear leak 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:27 | Link to Comment Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

h/t to Johngaltfla.com for the post title reference.

http://johngaltfla.com/blog3/2009/11/18/the-day-the-dollar-died-a-blovel...

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:31 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

With all due respect, all credit goes to Don McLean

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:57 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Wed, 03/16/2011 - 22:51 | Link to Comment Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Was wondering how long I would have to read through the comments til someone posted a link ;)

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:06 | Link to Comment OpenEyes
OpenEyes's picture

Yup

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:24 | Link to Comment In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

Is it in the realm of possible outcomes, that Goldman Sachs planted a bomb in some oil well of the coast of Japan? 

How similar this feels to the oil spill.

I often wonder what the think tanks had "planned" in order to get the world to> the  NEW World Order.  Just connect the dots.

A little imagination goes along way.  Einstein.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 21:18 | Link to Comment robobbob
robobbob's picture

Hey, I'm a full on NWO believer, and I've been trying to correlate Japan with the plan. But even I can't come to terms with Tesla longitudinal wave scalar weapons. of course, you can never be too sure.  Castro and Chavez DID blame the US for the Haiti earthquake. maybe I should pick up some more tin foil from the store JIC.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 22:19 | Link to Comment 45north
45north's picture

well I'm going long on tin foil!

Rocheleau said he was influenced by the other accomplice, who believed he was being targeted by "the New World Order" and convinced Rocheleau that microchips had been implanted in his sister's unborn baby.

Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Second+pleads+guilty+robberies/4446560/story.html#ixzz1Gopc401z

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 00:39 | Link to Comment rocker
rocker's picture

Wow, I kept asking myself how long it would take to hear someone say Scalar weapons or Haarp. You did it Robobob.

When I searched YouTube on the earthquake I got so many hits back on HAARP I couldn't believe it.  So I read many including this "Dutchsinse guy". Studied some of what he was saying to his crowd. I must say, HAARP is real, what they use if for, I'm not sure. But it does not look like a good thing for the Bankster's or elite's enemies. From what I understand the Banksters do not like Japan because they finance most of their own debt. I am going to Pinch myself again in the morning and ask myself it this whole thing is a dream or something. 

Either way, I am 100% cash in these markets. Why would anybody own stocks now ?!!!?!!!?  Physical PM's only.

P.S. If you think what they say about Haarp being used against Japan is amazing, you should listen to what the conspiracy theorist say about what they have planned for the U.S.  

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:01 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

Is this kind of waht it looks like?

Wall Street + Federal Reserve Corporation Theft = World Economic Collapse 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WI8dfFN7H1w 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

WOW!

My Youtube just went blank! This is the second thought police attack on me this week.

Time to reinstall java and flash player again.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:08 | Link to Comment asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Maybe this?

 

US military blocks websites for Japan aid effort

 - http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-technology/us-military-blocks-we...

 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:12 | Link to Comment -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Only on its own network.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:17 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

I just reinstalled the adobe flash player and it fixed it.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

 I know who you junkers are. You can run but you can't hide.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:28 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

ppffftt... morons who think it matters.

I see it as a popularity quote :)

 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:32 | Link to Comment asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Junking?

William the Bastard will be glad to hear this.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:43 | Link to Comment Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

Damn! Look at them accumulate! A higher count every time the screen is refreshed!

You've got friends!

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:53 | Link to Comment Blano
Blano's picture

You way, waaaayyyy overestimate your importance.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:44 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

Importance is relative.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:01 | Link to Comment Paul Krugman
Paul Krugman's picture

But Cramer just told me to buy buy buy.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:03 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Red open on ES and wow

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:13 | Link to Comment adeptus
adeptus's picture

Excuse my n00b question. ES = ??

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:20 | Link to Comment adeptus
adeptus's picture

Thanks, "ES" was too short of an acronym to google and get any obvious answers.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:29 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Its the S&P futures which trade all day/night.

Edit: yup ditto to above

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:02 | Link to Comment slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

Goldzilla bitchez!

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Godzilla joined the bailed out Japanese zombie bankers on a flight out of Tokyo last night ...meanwhile the Jap Govt pushes aside safety standards and ask the peasents to risk their lives trying to rectify their political mistake siting nuke plants on the coast ....this is how it works, what a wonderful world

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:04 | Link to Comment John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Complacency is a sin. Surely this an oil prices will wipeout Ben's "wealth effect".

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:04 | Link to Comment tallen
tallen's picture

Might want to look up when you walk past GS/BAC HQs, there's gonna be some falling bankers.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:35 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Promise?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:27 | Link to Comment Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

Yea, the ones in charge are gonna throw out some of the low level employees so law enforcement overlooks the real crime scene of the past umpteen years which is INSIDE the building

 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:14 | Link to Comment michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQdBa9pT6zA

There is no Time out.

Many will be forced to sell assets to satisfy collateral requirements.

Our sinking feeling is that after pumping 50 trillion or so in money markets, the petty cash may be running quite low.

POOF

Value at risk is, however, coherent, under the assumption of elliptically distributed losses (e.g. normally distributed) when the portfolio value is a linear function of the asset prices. However, in this case the value at risk becomes equivalent to a mean-variance approach where the risk of a portfolio is measured by the variance of the portfolio's return.

 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:20 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I wonder what the next NYSE margin debt & free credit chart is going to look like?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nyse-margin-debt-hits-fresh-post-lehman...

(funny, I had to google this article link, which I found on a CNBC 'net page)

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:56 | Link to Comment Blano
Blano's picture

Yeah, what he said.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:07 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

He said that the volatility in the VAR has overwhelmed the average.

Nightmare is now reality. There. Is. No. Spoon.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:04 | Link to Comment Calvin Jones an...
Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle's picture

Where is Zombie Brian Sack?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Thurifer
Thurifer's picture

Forgive the ignorance, but what is ES?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:07 | Link to Comment moneymutt
moneymutt's picture

google is your friend, we are too busy watching train wreck

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:41 | Link to Comment thebark
thebark's picture

I googled ES...they are a skateboard manufacturer...

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Unlawful Justice
Unlawful Justice's picture

https://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/All
3/4 down and look for the E-mini S&p 500

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Advoc8tr
Advoc8tr's picture

ES is the symbol for the S@P 500 futures market, You were junked because someone asked the same question in an earlier post and got the answer. ....  you should have been able to find the answer yourself by simply reading the treads / post.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 21:45 | Link to Comment monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

lol

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:11 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

You can watch the trainwreck here:

http://finance.alphatrade.com/quotes/quote?s=@ES.1

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:20 | Link to Comment OpenEyes
OpenEyes's picture

Thanks HH, nice link.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:31 | Link to Comment AZSovreign
AZSovreign's picture

So I'm watching it and i don't see the wreck, just a last of 1245 that goes red then green then red then green.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:14 | Link to Comment atlee
atlee's picture

S&P mini futures contract symbol is ES

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Tantrist
Tantrist's picture

Ya I tried that 

About 4,460,000,000 results (0.12 seconds) 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:58 | Link to Comment Birddog
Birddog's picture

es...S&p

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:48 | Link to Comment prophet
prophet's picture

It was one of the more widely used toxic financial derivatives that brought down the global financial system in the early part of the twenty-first century.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:06 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 very interesting; I don't see why the demise,(or effective demise), of the Yen carry trade will be negative for whatever amount of USD carry trade exists. Rather the reverse, I would think. nature abhors a vacuum, more or less.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:22 | Link to Comment 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

i was thinking the same thing.....at least for an intermediate term

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:31 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Japans owns a lot of US debt.

A lot of US companies own Japanese assets.

 

Banks in General but also a lot of large internationals. BAC & C will soon get a hard hit.

 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

so this will be the stack of bricks that broke the camels (camel = $) back? 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:08 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

yep   

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

The Japanese have done 1 of 2 things:

1. Either decided to say "F**K the markets, and put the money to use for the people and infrastructure.

2. Plan on defaulting on purpose.

 

What other scenario's are there? I don't see any with their action(lack thereof) so far.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:10 | Link to Comment John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

I ask how can they not default when this sort of natural disaster strikes (In it's current state) and if it worsens....

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:37 | Link to Comment B9K9
B9K9's picture

Of course the Japanese are going to default. Think Confederate notes or Tsarist bonds. You sell all of your assets and renege on all your liabilities. Businesses (and people) do it everyday. It's nature's way of restoring balance - as you have pointed out, nature trumps fiction every time.

Still, it was nice while it lasted, but there were too many variables that had break just right to survive 2007-08. For example, instead of the JP earthquake, what Ben needed was something along the order of an amazing new discovery of a Ghawar sized field.

Pity. Oh, and to all the micro-perspective guys, have fun playing the trade. Reminds me of gawkers looking at the tide pools as the ocean sucks out. If you don't understand that what is occurring is simply the closing bookend to the efforts taken 3 years ago to move all risk to sovereigns, then it's probably too late for you to figure out what that means.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:03 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Again, those focused on the micro may have also done their homework on the macro...  further, I fail to see how brainstorming or projecting past some macro singularity would not also qualify back into micro examination...  In other words, we can be perfectly aware of the inevitability of a macro event, but our presumptions about what happens afterward are no different than are presumptions of what precedes it.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:06 | Link to Comment Mine Is Bigger
Mine Is Bigger's picture

But I thought most Japanese debt was held internally.  How would defaulting on its citizens help rebuilding?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:02 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

20yrs ago Japanese savings rates were 20%+(the greying of their society)has caused them to use their savings to get by

They have been for a long while now about 5%.

When the country has a 200%+ GDP to debt ratio, their populace's savings (now drawn WAY) down, will be sucked up in  a nano sec.

Just like ours, except we are 10x's worse off than Japan was.

We are into deflation, headed for HyperInflation, and the world has seen nada like it.

In the 30's we were rich, and we basically owned the planet.

Now, we are dead ass broke, and not a chance in hell of meeting any obligations semi long term, past 2-5yrs if we tried.

All the top dogs in the BUSINESS are screaming to get out of the USD, and into CHF, Gold,Silver.

Our country is balanced on the edge of a cliff, and your USD's, could be worthless before morning.

THEY will be worthless(meaning NO one will accept them), we just do not know the date.(very soon)

Food,Water, and appropriate supplies,and the means to protect your families.

We are likely going to see a new Gv't system, one which none here are going to care for.The one we have now is broken, and run by thugs and crooks.I hate it.

Be prepared for anything, and get away from large cities......min 2.5hr drive.

Getting your shit together is a no go, should already have it ready,and able to leave at a minutes notice.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:15 | Link to Comment Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Both. 

Everything for the homeland, it's going to need it.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:37 | Link to Comment michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

"All hands on deck" Either we save there ship or all hands lost. We need to render all assistance in there darkest hour. 

The nuclear crisis in the disaster-ravaged country intensified Wednesday, prompting some countries to advise their citizens to stay away.

Tokyo Electric Power Co. spokesman Naoki Tsunoda said the power line is almost complete and officials plan to try it "as soon as possible" but he could not say when.

The new line would revive electric-powered pumps, allowing the company to maintain a steady water supply to troubled reactors and spent fuel storage ponds, keeping them cool.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:04 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Yup, that's pretty much the official story. I'll believe it when I see the lights on at Fukushmia and the radiation levels back to normal.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:31 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

The lights may come on, but the radiation levels will not be back to normal for a long time. Cs137's halflife is 30 years, i129's 15.7 million years, and sr90 is about 29 years.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:54 | Link to Comment prophet
prophet's picture

Would you settle for a soft glowing aura?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 21:14 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Is that you're final offer?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:35 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I didn't really think about that one...

 

A default would be very logical right now. The reason is: it just doesn't really matter if they don't.

So by not defaulting, they would miss the chance of a liftetime. Their markets are death anyway.

 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Everyone chill. Just CHILL. Barry O's got his picks on the Final Four out, it's all good now. Homeboy headed down to Rio, maybe he will find his birth certificate there.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:12 | Link to Comment Lets_Eat_Ben
Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:13 | Link to Comment camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

i STARTED LOL'ING IN THE OFFICE AND EVERYONE IS LOOKING AT ME.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:22 | Link to Comment Temporis
Temporis's picture

Same here!

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:09 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

<Re: Bush speech where he was mocking himself looking for the WMD>

Let's see, is that birth certificate over here? Nope, not here. Is it over there? Nope, not over there. Well, it must be here somewhere. I know that if we keep on looking for it we'll find it somewhere.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:51 | Link to Comment Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

That actually SUCKS. A million+ dead based on a fucking lie. People laughed at this joke......so absolutely sad. We didn't learn anything so we'll just keep killing until we DO figure it out.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

"It would be wonderful for people to maybe offer a little help to the Japanese people at this time - as they’re filling out their brackets."

http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/03/16/president-obamas-2011-ncaa-bra...

I am at a loss for words.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:18 | Link to Comment -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

I am not at a loss for words.  However, most of those words are not befitting a lady and I do try to keep up appearances.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

Let me help.

The President and his crew are all a bunch of mother fucking cock sucking pieces of smoldering shit.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:55 | Link to Comment Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

BINGO!!!!!! We have a winner!!!!!!

Of course, the one before BO was the same thing, the one before that, the one before that, the one before that.............

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 22:25 | Link to Comment ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

True enough. Now look at the trend line.

I don't see it getting lower.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:21 | Link to Comment Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Don't be shy. Extend that to the whole lot of them in DC. I prefer the phrase 'Bunch of worthless cocksuckers'.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 21:17 | Link to Comment lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

thank you for saying that.    please add the word, "traitor " in front of the word "shit" .     I would have said it, but, I cannot bring myself to swear like you, Michael .   I'm too much of a proper old lady.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:34 | Link to Comment Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

You can't make this stuff up.

Probably 25,000 dead, and the leader of the free world is handicapping sports events on his way to a family outing in Rio.

Bread and circuses...

 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:37 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

I thought you just made that quote up...wow. I mean come on can't we get enough respect for them to at least be dignified while they pillage us? Am I asking to much to be scammed by a charming gentleman with style and taste?

Was already pissed enough about trying to make streaming content a felony. So we can lock up kids who pirate music/movies but guys who steal billions walk free. Crime like anything, go big or go home. Anyone know where the door to the real world is? The surreal Twilight Zone is getting a little to crazy.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:22 | Link to Comment Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

You mean like George Clooney. I suppose to be swindled by him would be better. He's got style and class.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:58 | Link to Comment prophet
prophet's picture

Most company's have policies prohibiting gambling but like most rules they are not enforced.  Any company worth its salt is going to ask employees to give anything they might have put into a pool and give it to a relief organization.  Much like ZH is doing with all donations for the next week.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment NoLongerABagHolder
NoLongerABagHolder's picture

Gold just got slapped in the nuts......

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

A $6 drop?  Hardly even a testicular exam.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:13 | Link to Comment NoLongerABagHolder
NoLongerABagHolder's picture

Was actually $10 in 4 minutes...... that qualifies as a nut slap - but not a kick.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:32 | Link to Comment Double down
Double down's picture

"But a flesh wound"

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:36 | Link to Comment Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

"Please turn your head and cough."

 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:46 | Link to Comment The Profit Prophet
The Profit Prophet's picture

Why did I feel one of your hands on each of my shoulders during the exam???!!!

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:12 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

The sound of it hurts though.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:19 | Link to Comment Muir
Muir's picture

If a nut is slapped on a desk, and there is no one to hear it....

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:22 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

If you think that's bad...the USD index is now 76.29

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Count Laszlo
Count Laszlo's picture

This is good for Japan.  They'll be importing more than exporting.  It's strategic.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment hampsterwheel
hampsterwheel's picture

Check out this article from 2007 on the yen carry trade - you won't believe the title!!!

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/the-carry-trade-a-tsunami-in-the-ma...

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:08 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Lets discuss the LEGS of these trades. aud/jpy comes to mind.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:28 | Link to Comment Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Short term, yen repatriation and FX panic send the yen up. But longer term, won't most of the materials (coal, iron ore, cement, copper) and energy (get ready for a big ramp-up in LNG imports ) for rebuilding Japan come from Australia? Then the pendulum should swing the other way.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Good!

Carry trade ponzi shit.

I hope your right. Die, pig die and take goldfuck and JP with ya.

Over the winter my dog has left her mark. I will gladly send the little treasures to all banksters as the bonuses they deserve.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:11 | Link to Comment pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

let's pray for those that are short vix.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:12 | Link to Comment d00daa
d00daa's picture

Anyone short volatility in this environment deserves to be separated from their capital.  Mercilessly, without prayer.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:10 | Link to Comment KinorSensase
KinorSensase's picture

Does this mean "goodbye" to a bunch of free money (from arbitrage)?  New to this and trying to understand.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:13 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Glad I sold all my FXA and kept my FXY despite Mad Hedge Fund Trader's assurance it would tank last year. FXF also strong. Getting smoked on some other things though.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:13 | Link to Comment Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Obama's final four picks are in...wtf?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:31 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Full retard.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:07 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Obama's final four picks are in...wtf?

Funny huh?, the whole world is about to crater, and all that Ckskr is concerned about is round ball, and gun control.

Get ready, talking Exec Orders here,the SHTF may be VERY close.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 21:03 | Link to Comment prophet
prophet's picture

I hear he picked Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:13 | Link to Comment John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Alot of superheros may have bought their last dip today.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:15 | Link to Comment Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

70 to wash things out and then a collapse from there ala 1995?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:15 | Link to Comment Debtless
Debtless's picture

Awe too bad. Now you fucking FX carry-trade dweebs will have to actually WORK for a living.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:23 | Link to Comment pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

they can always pile into USD ... after all Bernanke keeps saying "I got your back".

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

And they will be.

With Yen melting up, you can bet the USD will be the next currency grabbed by the Japanese.

 

It's a currency run, but in the other direction than everyone thought.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

When (Kampo)says it is, then it is.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:23 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

On other news, riots about to erupt in France, Germany and other enlightened plutocracies of Europe, as Colonel Muammar Gaddafi discloses he funded political campaigns for Sarkozy, Merkel, and others -the very same bunch of idiots that want to re-colonize Libya.

One can only wonder the reasons why the self-appointed Adonis DNA wikileaks fraud Julian Assange conveniently never disclosed this very important piece of information.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:28 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Oh, that's friggin' awesome!

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:07 | Link to Comment fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

+1

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Is that really true?

 

Source?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:47 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

No source, no truth.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:18 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

Gotta love the timing of this forex raid (and that's surely what it is) -- while New York traders were headed home, and Tokyo traders were still heading for work (if they didn't leave town). 

A thin market between New York and Tokyo business hours is the perfect opportunity to slam it by four whole handles, after spending all day positioning.

It's a zero-sum game, so someone made a damned fortune from this -- as legendary as Soros 'breaking the Bank of England,' perhaps. Any guesses who it was?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:23 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Relax, the Fat Lady hasn't even put on her panties yet.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:27 | Link to Comment Life of Illusion
Life of Illusion's picture

Expose the derivatives we will find out,,wait they are the stealth financial weapon.

When this unwinding carry trade is complete,,,watch out, yen 140+

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:30 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I would think you are spot on ... however there are many traders who could see this coming.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:32 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Astute observation, although all disciplined FXers would have left their scripts running so as to back away and dump/cover in such an unforseen situation.

Either way, definitely lots of pain for people on either side of this. Cant wait to see how the Nikkei opens despite the futures which arent really all that low.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:52 | Link to Comment SME MOFO
SME MOFO's picture

The silver shankings seem to happen in the lunch line and right before they hand out the nightly meds.  Somebody is doing some serious work there.  Nuestra Familia, AB or La Eme?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:20 | Link to Comment Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Where in the world is Harry Wagner (AKA DB sell side douche bag)?

Must be getting hosed

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:32 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Don't say his name three times, or he will appear.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:42 | Link to Comment Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

He's too big a wimp to show when the real is going down.

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