Dead Cat Bounce In Progress; Key Resistance Reached

Tyler Durden's picture

By Nic Lenoir of ICAP

The one market that has not played long too much with the overall risk picture is the FX market. We had highlighted the EURUSD triangle the other day, there is a similar one short term in the Dollar Index. More importantly, we see on a weekly chart that the DXY is shaping a monster inverted H&S, the same pattern we have advocated playing when we recommended buying USDCLP at 505/510. The key lesson from the 90s is that the USD rally killed Asia. With China supposedly the growth engine of the world and a peaking ISM cycle in the US, this is not good news for the global economy.

S&P futures have tested the key resistance this morning around 1,105. We have been highlighting the 1,107/1,113 resistance zone for some time now. A break above is resolutely bullish, but as long as we remain below we could still be in a very bearish formation. On the downside watch 1,067/1,065 as the key support. Below that level the market will go test 1,017 at the very minimum. It is interesting to notice that the Nikkei has triggered the inverted H&S we pointed out the other day. Yet given the prime minister resignation and subsequent Yen weakness, the Nikkei move could be a simple knee jerk reaction to the weaker currency that favors Japanese exports. AUDUSD has not confirmed the break and is still below the 0.8575 resistance. A break past this resistance opens up the way towards 0.89 where all the moving averages have just posted a bearish cross and that type of level is sometimes retested before further downside. If the USD keeps strengthening and EURUSD closes tonight below support however, which is likely given that DXY is breaking out of its triangle bypassing 87.10 as I type, we could see risk come back under selling pressure.

Big picture I remain a convinced equity bear, but we are interestingly at cross-roads here. Which ever way we exit the 1,067/1,113 band will probably turn out to be a very sizable move. If we break to the upside we have the DXY most likely rejecting the inverted H&S at 88.35 and pulling back lower, with AUDUSD breaking north towards 0.89. To the downside EUR will probably get sold very aggressively and DXY will be VERY VERY strong.

The only alternative scenario would be one of strong US equities with weak commodities and Emerging Market stocks. While I favor US equities to outperform their emerging counterparts in a deleveraging environment, it still seems a stretch to have them move in opposite direction. It seems to me inevitable, even if we rally past the 1,113 resistance and wind up making new highs in S&P futures, that deflationary forces will catch up with us. This is a balance sheet contraction environment, debt has overall been only marginally reduced so far and we have a lot more to go to restore some balance in the system. This environment will prove extremely deflationary and since a lot of balance sheets need to be funded in USD it is completely part of the strong USD theme we have been pushing foward since early 2008.

All eyes are on the NFP number coming out tomorrow. I personally believe that the number will match or beat expectations. HOWEVER the jury it out regarding the relevance of a number propped up by a birth-death model and census hiring. This week Citi Financial announced it was closing multiple branches and HP is going to reorganize 6,000 jobs and terminate an additional 3,000. Jobless claims are also not really painting that cheerful a picture, and neither did ADP earlier today. That's right even HP is still not done cutting jobs even though the stock is still up almost 100% from last March's lows and I am sure analysts are trampling each other to upgrade the price target. My macro view is that the global economy is imbalanced and too many jobs in the US are services which only thrive when the stock market is booming and the wealthy spends lavishly (do you seriously need a massage and a beer brought by someone you tip $20 every time you get a haircut?). Since we no longer have the possibility to run our economy on credit, we have reached the tipping point where we need real jobs to support growth otherwise without a strong middle class spending will drop and to make matters worse people will rely on asset sales to support whatever spending they still engage in as the political capital to use federal funds to maintain the economy afloat vanishes.

While tactically we will stick tactically to the 1,067/1,113 game plan, I don't think that there are any outsized returns coming any time soon playing the market from the long side.

Good luck trading,


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Mako's picture

Possible inverse H&S there on the ST chart.

S&P ever breaks 660 and holds below for 3 days, get in your car and head out of the city.

ZerOhead's picture

A dead dog bounces too you know Ty.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I read the headline and immediately though of you and cougar. You'd think Tyler and company would be more sensitive to our feline readers. I expected to see some fur flying when I clicked the title to read the comments. :>)

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Today is down right ugly.  I would not be surprised if we flash crashed.  Then again, I will never be again surprised by flash crashes.  One a week from here on out seems likely, even in the case of a hyperinflation.

"The Dow gained 300 points today, but during that route, 100 points were vaporized in a matter of minutes.  No one really minds though, as long as the numbers get bigger.  Go numbers go!" -Steve LiesMan

JohnG's picture

Welcome to the new normal.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It has a ring to it. 




Mitchman's picture

As usual, one of the best analyses on the scene.  Thank you.  I also think we have a long ride down.

Trichy's picture

S&P is still valued on the LBO model. There will not be any more LBO's. That itself will bring it down to march levels.

Does anyone know why Ben started buying at 666.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Because he is sprung from the loins of Lucifer. It is his lucky number. 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I had to look this one up. Once I stopped laughing I had to congratulate you on your genius. :>)

I'm not telling. Everyone needs to do their own research.

SMG's picture

I think it was just a way the aristocracy at the top of the pyramid, lets we who are paying attention know, that they are in charge and can flaunt their power.  666 is one of their sacred numbers.  Also if they put a hidden symbol out there, they believe it holds power over the people who don't know what it means. 

Kayman's picture

Coffee breaks over, back on your heads.

Hephasteus's picture

I wouldn't worry about those 6000 hp jobs. HP hasn't made anything but crap for 10 years. I'd worry about the million city jobs getting cut this month. Out of work police are the best criminals on the planet. With a near perfect blend of gang banger and careful planning criminal.

LeBalance's picture

lol: "is it the police, honey?" "no, its the Ex-police!"

No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!

Fred Hayek's picture

Of course not!  Surprise is their greatest weapon . . . along with ruthlessness.  One of their two greatest weapons!

sumo's picture

Prepare ... the comfy chair!

crosey's picture

Bring out the comfy chair!

Cursive's picture


OMG.  You have seriously just created the next Big Idea for an FX/HBO/Showtime/ AMC/TNT series.  A group of laid-off policemen turn to a life of crime and violence.  Goodfellas meets Southland/Hill Street Blues.  I would watch this in a heart beat.

thesapein's picture

Could you work in a theme of good cops vs bad cops, except I'm not sure if the employed or laid off cops would be worse? I kind of like the idea of the retired cops going good.

Cursive's picture

Oh hell.  The whole thing is rife with moral poundering.  The inner conflict of the idealistic unemployed fence rider who so desperately wants to support his young wife and child but his moral upbringing leads him to initially reject his rogue older partner's criminal schemes.  But the rogue partner's schemes gain credance with each passing day that the young idealist's hopes for another job are dashed. The ying and yang of it all with the backdrop of a new urban's so juicy.

Brett in Manhattan's picture

It's actually a good idea for a movie. "Falling Down" except with a cop instead of a white collar guy.

Ragnar D's picture

It's called "The Shield" and it's awesome.  They just aren't laid off.

reading's picture

I was thinking the same thing...the best criminals out there are the employed cops.

Tapeworm's picture

GATA have cash for buzz cuts and steroids.

 BTW, do all cop shops have explicit contracts that forbid drug testing for the guys in blue?

 The locals here are either lardasses or bulked up like the Hulk. The attitudes vary with the body styling.

Johnny Bravo's picture

The more out of work police, the better!

They've never done anything for me, except for try to pull me over for speeding and eat donuts.

Every time I go hang out at my friends cigar shop, there's always like six of them sitting around instead of working or helping people. 

So why should six people get paid to sit around and do nothing?  I ask the same question every time I'm on campus!

ColonelCooper's picture

You know,  I always leave you be when you troll the gold posts.  I think your only interest in them is kind of mean spirited and fucked up, but at least you present facts (as you see them) to back up your position.  Fair enough.

But lay off the cops douchebag.  The only reason you KNOW they're anywhere is because they're in fucking uniforms.  Can't they have hangouts too?  Or are they supposed to put their asses on the line for you 24-7 with no breaks ever? 

Plus...I got news for ya... Don't speed and they won't pull you over.  For two seconds, just try to contemplate the idea that you're wrong, and Gordon Gekko and Mako are much closer to hitting the nail on the head. 

You'll wish you knew a cop.  Douche.

Disclaimer:  I am not in, nor am I related to anybody in law enforcement .

Tapeworm's picture

the airwaves are clogged with threats from the goomint cops that they will fine your sorry ass big if you are seen without a seatbelt. I make it a point to look at cops in their cars to survey their use of seatbelts. My informal assay is that less than one in ten of the cops wear the restraints when on duty.


jory's picture

We aren't going to the March 09 lows.  That's just plain silly.  Nordstrom was at $7 and it's now at $38.  ZH readers are bizarre.  

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Thanks Jory.  Thank you for reminding us of the leading indicator, Nordstroms.  Move along everybody.  Move along, and go buy your over priced pajamas now.

chet's picture

Yeah, that could "never happen".  Except it did.  Last year.

ratava's picture

print this one out

Trichy's picture

At that point the US still had a, although dysfunctional, banking system.

DosZap's picture

"INTO THE ABYSS"..speaking of Dysfunctional Systems.

.........don't know this dude, but the charts are Fed.Interesting, if Depressing( reality) read.

Nothing we haven't already figured out........or, at least contemplated.

On a side note, caught a blurb, BHO spending 5B a day,3x's more than GW did.

Johnny Bravo's picture

If Barack Obama was spending 5B a day, that would be less than 2 trillion dollars in the federal budget, which is much less than GWB spent.

By doing math, you can see that 5 X 365 = 1825 billion, or 1.825 trillion.

George W Bush's last budget was 3.1 trillion.

1.  The person that posted that obviously doesn't know anything.
2.  Conservatives suck balls at doing math before lying to look like they're right when they're lying.
3.  I'm SURE BHO is spending more than 5 billion a day, or 1.825 trillion a year.
4.  The only reason BHO's deficits are so high is because tax revenue is down significantly.

Johnny Bravo's picture

And I just know some Glenn Beck mouth breather is going to go "But 2009 was Obama's budget year, you moron!"

Federal budgets are always a year in advance, and federal budgets run from October to October.  2009 was Bush's last budget, even though it was paid out in 2008.
It's called "accounting."

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

BAM sets military spending records.  No big deal though, all Fem Dems do. 

Examples, because I know you will want them.  Carter raised military spending to records.  Clinton raised military spending to records.  Barry did too.  Sure, Dubya was a war monger, but we knew that!  Stupid Fem Dems are sitting in their forclosed houses watching their ipads going, "Obaaaaama is going to end the war soon.  I believe, do you believe?  Have hope, and shit in my hand."  Fem Dems are shit hoarders; they hoard their shit.

ColonelCooper's picture

"4. The only reason BHO's deficits are so high is because tax revenue is down significantly"

I used to just think you were a nuisance troll who got off on irritating everybody around you.  Kind of like a shitfly.

After that post, I officially HATE you with every fiber of my being.  Not only that, but that statement has officially branded you as a STUPID FUCK 'til eternity.

Okay people, the troll is fed.  Nothing to see here.

Cursive's picture

I could see that it wouldn't fall below $7 next year, as long as they have an equity raise or convert the debt.  With the way things are headed, JWN will be lucky to avoid a merger of equals to stay afloat in a couple of years.  Why don't you go talk to some WMT (20% of all retail) executives to get a feel for how healthy our economy is.

Or ask AEP why they still have massive idle capacity.

homersimpson's picture

"That's just plain silly." Yea - as silly as those same fools who kept saying real estate always goes up...

Turd Ferguson's picture

The DXY chart is a perfect example of why I hate TA.

The author arbitrarily draws a trend line and then claims his line is some kind of support/resistance.

I could draw my own line and make my own claims. What a joke.

Turd Ferguson's picture


I'd like to nail her every which way to Sunday!

Lndmvr's picture

Would'nt want to piss 'er off tho.

RockyRacoon's picture

...33-year-old single mother from Puerto Rico...

You might want to check with her ex old man first.  You know the story: Somebody, somewhere is tired of putting up with her shit.

trav7777's picture

He said he wanted to nail her, not keep her.