Deadly flu spreads across Ukraine

Project Mayhem's picture

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espin.hkcs's picture

Narconon:Great article to know about flu.

heatbarrier's picture

Ukraine turmoil puts IMF loans in jeopardy
15 Nov 2009

Political in-fighting between the erstwhile heroes of Ukraine's pro-Western Orange Revolution has plunged the country into economic turmoil, derailing a crucial multi-billion dollar loan from the International Monetary Fund.

The country's biggest strategic companies are saddled with crippling debts, including the state gas company which has struggled to meet Russian gas payments, only just managing a $500m payment this month.

Meanwhile the global economic crisis has caused the country's budget deficit to balloon, its inefficient Soviet-era factories to stagger, and international rating agencies have rushed to downgrade their view of economic prospects. The national currency, the hryvnia, has plunged by 60 per cent in a year, foreign direct investment has slowed to a trickle, and bad bank loans have multiplied.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/6574241/Ukraine...

Anonymous's picture

PM,

I live in West Ukraine and I dont see anything going on here. The first week people were panicked and wore masks now everyone thinks its a sick joke the Ukraine Government is playing before elections in January.

Personally as Ive reported over at FOFOA.blogspot.com,
I think Ukraine is very close to default and swine flu and any epidemic is perfect to take the blame for the ensuing fallout from EU banks taking huge losses. If the lies work in Ukraine, then they will apply the same tactics in other regions of the world as they default in kind.

Honestly, I went to a hospital here today for a follow up visit from last week and it looked like a normal Ukraine hospital, like it did last week. I just dont see the sick and dieing people that the media is reporting about. Its like Im living in 1984 or something, real eerie.

Let me know how to contact you and I can give you my boots on the ground view.

Project Mayhem's picture

Thanks for the information.  If the reports from the Ukrainian government are accurate, it is probably too early to tell if we have an epidemic of a new strain.  The other question is the clinical attack rate (does the old strain offer immunity to the new strain)

 

Flu spreads in clusters. So it's not unusual for there to be areas with no disease, and areas of high concentration of disease.  Even small numbers of people contracting "total destruction of the lungs" is serious, even though it may not yet be obvious on the street.  Your report from a hospital interests me though.  Do doctors have anything to say?  What are the incidence of lung infection compared to normal etc?  Anyway, if the Ukrainian figures are accurate, about 1 in 40 are sick, and 1 in 800 are or were in the hospital.  I am curious about your report regarding the hospital being normal.  I know this is not the case in some hospitals in Belarus, which is experiencing as many as 20-30 patients dying per day in some hospitals from a new form of pneumonia.

 

It may be the situation is worse in Belarus.

 

Regardless, if this is a 'for real' problem , rather than Ukrainian government lies, then we can expect the epidemic will peak sometime in January to February.  Let's see what the results are out of Mill Hill , London if they ever decide to release the gene sequences.

 

 

Please contact me at project.mayhem.research [at] gmail [dot] com

 

P.S.

 

report from a doctor in Belarus

 

"With influenza, we really Gestures. I have today is the first day off in the last 11 days. Minzdrav completely discredited the entire health care system of the country. As it turned out in Minsk did not even have some minimum stock of drugs (particularly Tamiflu, antibiotics, and so steep etc.). And when the hospital began to receive people with complete packets of pneumonia and almost dying in waiting area, doctors simply were unarmed.
 With mechanical ventilation (machines do not have enough, already used by those who gathered dust in basements for cheating) shot live only one patient. Our hospital is among the doctors called a "fever hospital" re-profiled in a continuous-communicable pneumo. All clinics Minsk stopped regular treatment inc. operation.  In the day 28-60 persons hospitalized with pneumonia and dies up to 8 people. I do not know how many died. All the young, there is even a 1986-87gg birth. And it still was not aware of infant mortality ..
Thank God, in this Monday (after 8-9 days after the beginning of the horror) in hospitals appeared Tamiflu. Packaging divides the chairman of the committee zdraovohraneniya personally. People etiotropic after the start of treatment for the eyes out of the crisis, the positive dynamics, even at 10 days after onset.What scum officials of Ministry of Health. On TV, media, etc. say that we have only 19 deaths in the country as a whole.  Sam can you imagine what level of deception, if only in our hospital of yesterday, there were 24 deaths."

Anonymous's picture

Also, I have a pastor friend here in my region that said his wife had to go comfort the wife of a man that died from the flu. My friend said that they did an autopsy on the dead man and found that his lungs were black like they had been burned.

As I dont believe this whole flu thing, but I trust my pastor friend. I have to say that either the hospital was ling about the black lungs or there may be some truth to the black lung reports. But so far I think there has only been a few of these black lung incidents reported. And again unless I can find someone to bribe to let me see the body and the lungs, theres no way for me to verify this.

Anonymous's picture

PM I agree,

There could be parts of west Ukraine that are experiencing it much worse than my area here where I live. But people travel a lot here by train and bus all over from city to city from bazaar to bazaar. There is no quarantine for travel. People are moving freely as they please. Believe me if they started locking down free movement I would be the first to pop-smoke and get the hell out, but no one seems afraid anymore, so I got to think that as people travel and use their cell phones and Inet to talk to relatives in other parts of the country they would really start to panic again if these media stories were true.

Before all this happened one of my reasons for coming to Ukraine was to get away from what the West had planned for its inhabitants such as monetary collapse, police states, and possible extermination. So Im not spreading disinformation. There is no serious flu or epidemic here as of now.

Sometimes psychology can be a pretty strong weapon and if they want to throw people into a real panic around the world they just have to tell some scary stories and show some scary pictures. Propaganda is amazing. Ive been to both Afghanistan and Iraq in the past couple years and have seen with my own eyes the Propaganda about both places in Western media and the reality on the ground.

Again, this whole thing may be real. But Im not seeing it yet. Also I cant comment on Belarus, as Ive never been there.

Personaly, I wont take the vaccine as I believe this whole thing is about the vaccine now. The flu is not real but the vaccine may be. The first person that comes near me with a vaccine in hand, is getting their teeth kicked in!

Anonymous's picture

I agree with what you said about traveling here in Ukraine. Many Ukrainians travel throughout the country by bus and train. Many Ukrainians also have relatives throughout the country and if there was a true pandemic the people here would know about it.

I'm currently living in Zaporozhye and there are NO problems here. Earlier I was in Dnepropetrovsk and Kiev and there were no problems there either. I'm traveling to Nikolaev later this week for a few days, my contacts there say all is good.

Intuition's picture

A trusted source with knowledge of the Ukraine tells me that school closures and bans on public gatherings are very common occurrences in the months leading up to any Ukranian election. Take it for what it's worth.

Anonymous's picture

In order to understand the flu epidemic in Ukraine, you must first understand the country better than you do. The high percentage of hospitalization DOES NOT mean that the flu in Ukraine is more severe than elsewhere. It is a reflection of public policy. Everyone who identified as infected by the flu virus, MUST go to the hospital to obtain Tamiflu. You cannot get a prescription from a private doctor, nor can you fill it in any druggist. The only people allowed to deal in Tamiflu are the hospitals.

You are also counted as being "hospitalized" as soon as you step foot in any hospital, even if you go home everyday. Unlike in the USA and Europe, you need not be in a hospital bed, to be "in the hospital" as far as Ukraine's statistics are concerned. Everyone who is not in the hospital does NOT have a confirmed case of flu and IS NOT being treated by Tamiflu. They are probably treating themselves with hot tea and honey, and that's it. They may or may not have the technical flu. Many may simply have a bad cold. We cannot really know, as I said, because people with confirmed flu MUST go the hospital, and, once they are there, even if they leave an hour later, they are considered "in the hospital" until the hospital-doctor's (who is the only source of Tamiflu) treatment course.

I do not wish to make light of the situation. We do have a lot of flu floating about, and it is a very serious public health problem. However, it is not as dire or diabolical as you seem to think.

Anonymous's picture

In order to understand the flu epidemic in Ukraine, you must first understand the country better than you do. The high percentage of hospitalization DOES NOT mean that the flu in Ukraine is more severe than elsewhere. It is a reflection of public policy. Everyone who identified as infected by the flu virus, MUST go to the hospital to obtain Tamiflu. You cannot get a prescription from a private doctor, nor can you fill it in any druggist. The only people allowed to deal in Tamiflu are the hospitals.

You are also counted as being "hospitalized" as soon as you step foot in any hospital, even if you go home everyday. Unlike in the USA and Europe, you need not be in a hospital bed, to be "in the hospital" as far as Ukraine's statistics are concerned. Everyone who is not in the hospital does NOT have a confirmed case of flu and IS NOT being treated by Tamiflu. They are probably treating themselves with hot tea and honey, and that's it. They may or may not have the technical flu. Many may simply have a bad cold. We cannot really know, as I said, because people with confirmed flu MUST go the hospital, and, once they are there, even if they leave an hour later, they are considered "in the hospital" until the hospital-doctor's (who is the only source of Tamiflu) treatment course.

I do not wish to make light of the situation. We do have a lot of flu floating about, and it is a very serious public health problem. However, it is not as dire or diabolical as you seem to think.

KeyserSöze's picture

Now THAT is "DUE PROCESS" .... Marla?

 

 

 

Anonymous's picture

OK, for the most part of the article by Mr. Mayhem, it was a well written collection of data.

Of course, anyone who cites Lew Rockwell as a valid data source, immediately becomes suspect....

However, generally speaking, most of the DATA and events he presents is correct.

I disagree with his analysis though, and his data charts are constructed to make the story look worse than it really is...

Ukraine is Mexico redux.

Just as in Mexico, a lot of deaths and infections out of the gate, and then a big fizzle.... A lot of panic and reports of doctors dead, and reports of long lines in hospitals, and then a big fizzle....

Let's look at the data and see if we can find a different interpretation.
1. A million infections. One of the reasons that since the beginning I have consistently maintained a CFR of only .006 to .0006% death rate from this bug, is because in America, we vastly, vastly, vastly underreported the mild cases. Yet we know from stories all from the beginning that the bug was wildly contagious, because of he reports from schools that high numbers of absenteeism occurred. In the case of the Ukraine, instead of this being a different bug, I submit that they are counting anyone who reports an ILI, unlike in the US where from the beginning, they only reported those who went to a doctor (say 5% of cases) those who got a test (say 5% of those) and those who tested positive (say 20% of those). Huge differences of methodology explains the "rapid" number of infections.

2. 75,000 hospitalized. This number is concerning, because Mr Mayhem is correct that based upon US and ROW experience, 7 - 10% of those hospitalized die from influenza. I've checked various primary Ukrainian sources and have been assured that in the Ukraine, culturally, getting admitted to a hospital for an ingrown toenail is not inconceivable. So while I admit that applying a 10% fatality rate to 75,000 WILL give us an incredibly high CFR for the Ukraine, I wait to see if in reality we do get as many deaths as that. The next two weeks will tell.

3. 300 dead. This figure is not out of line given the lack of tamiflu, presence of co-factors such as poverty, and a general lack of extreme medical care, money no object, based in the US.

As additional analysis: If Mr Mayhem's analysis is correct, and this has high infectivity and high "true seriousness" and high deaths, we would have seen by now a collapse in medical care as primary doctors and nurses would see their colleagues keel over and up to 40% (based upon previous multiple surveys of health care professionals) would have been calling in sick. We have not seen this behaviour.

His "infection" plots: Hell, if I graphed the number of time I have taken a shit over my life, you would also see a continuing upward trend of the graph. He damages his assertions by using such a sophomoric plotting ploy. The only real good data analysis is to view a chart showing new infections, new admissions, and new deaths by day, week, or month. In that case, we can already see declines in the rate of change. Or in the case of my bowel movements, we will see a remarkably flat pattern over time, with spikes that correlate well with overbinging on alcohol, food poisoning episodes, and periods of sickness.

The rest of his stuff is tin foil rants that we have seen and debunked before.

1. Genetically engineered virus. Puhlease. Mother nature is quite capable of creating her own doomsday virus herself, thank you very much. Nothing new here in his arguments.

2.WHO is a criminal organization backed by globalists wanting to reduce world population. Puhlease.. How about WHO is a politically connected bureaucracy who's money and mission is abused by graft and incompetence and political infighting. And it suffers from the same problems as the CDC, namely trying to massage the story in the name of "not panicking" the people.

3. Silence in the MSM. Got me there. But I submit the silence is due to the very real control of stories that are "sensational" due to # 2 above.

4. Spraying of flu - Pretty stupid way of spreading a virus. How about just misting in a public subway? Flu is rapidly inactivated by sunlight. We're talking minutes here.

5. Baxter is trying to kill us for fun and profit. It was either a lab accident (most probable) or my favorite tin theory that a muslim lab worker did it on purpose as a terrorist act. Much more plausible and would also be denied by the powers that be.

6. Joseph Moshe - Now this is the best of the best tin in the last 20 years, and I am just as intrigued as the poster, Mr. Mayhem. Hey, we all here went round and round about the 132 Billion bearer bond stories, happened two times in fact, and only the tin foil explanation that it was true made any sense. With the data we have, in this case of Joseph Moshe, the tin foil explanation makes sense too, and why, of all the other stuff has a logical explanation, this story has no logical explanation and I am open to the tin foil one.

7. Secret cabal of one worlders and gasp! Kissinger. Sorry, favorite boogieman de jure.

tip e. canoe's picture

agreed on the moshe story...that's some crazy tin, almost too crazy to be tin.

looks the good doctor has a court date on 01/25/2010.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&fo...

let's see if he shows up.

(and my friends wonder why i don't go to the cinema anymore.  no screenwriter alive could dream up a SWAT team firing canisters of teargas into a clown car and have absolutely no effect on the driver.) 

Anonymous's picture

Well...Praise God!....For He always keeps His promises! He has said ..."I will call for a sword upon ALL the inhabitants"...and "If my people will humble themselves and pray and seek My Face...turn from their evil ways...." I am so at Peace because as Paul said.."For me to live is Christ...to die is GAIN!!!

Sigma O's picture

It's a highly serious situation in Ukraine right now, see the proof here.

Anonymous's picture

Nice prostitutes. Told ya. Promiscuous lifestyles spread numerous viruses.

MsCreant's picture

Edit: Had a joke here, decided I no longer wanted to contribute to minimizing the Ukraine story.

Gordon_Gekko's picture

EXCELLENT job PM. The fact that governments are involved in such a criminal enterprise is not surprising at all.

Anonymous's picture

Nice catch Zero Hedge, I see your eyes are open to the potential biotech stock play. The question is, shall you divest or invest in the mark of the beast? ...or shall you stand fast and bare witness, having not accepted the mark of the beast? ...for it represents the prophetic name and number code of a man ...the offer of dominion ...as the host stands entombed and unable to rise in possession. Shall you receive the grievous sore? ...or salvation in the name of God in Christ?

It's time to be chosen by the Truth, there is no choice, revelation is at the door and judgment is now upon the event horizon. Do not fall into the pit my friends, the dark pool of the shadow bank offers no rate of return for persons invested in the wages of sin. Repent, divest, fear not, go with God in Christ, stand fast and do no harm.

Anonymous's picture

You better be fucking with me.

Anonymous's picture

flu scare in Ukraine translates easily into 1) $ of foreign aid, 2) control by UN, WHO and NATO 3) prompt Russian response. In that order. Film at eleven.

delacroix's picture

I got this bug a few months ago, and I was the sickest I've ever been. I thought I had gotten through the worst of it, but I just kept getting weaker. finally my daughter took me to the hospital.what ended up bringing me back was forcing myself to eat cup-o-noodles and gatorade. all the hospital did was give me potassium. it was another few weeks before I could go back to work. I was scared, when you're that sick, you wonder if it might kill you. I've seen the planes doing aerial spraying above my area in so. cal I don't know what it is, and they're not telling. also the h1n1 swine flu virus is composed of segments of various other strains, that most assuredly do not occur naturally.

gatopeich's picture

Really got that? Then I am glad you got through.

May I ask where do you live?

Any first person testimony from Ukraine?

Girlfriend works with kids, so she falls in almost every single new epidemic. I am concerned about a 'big one' coming.

JacksWastedLife's picture

*THE VIRUS MAY BE GENETIC ENGINEERED*
Sure! In KGB lab in Moscow and financed with Gazprom's bloody money!

heatbarrier's picture

Real or manufactured, it makes a Black Swan event from Eastern Europe more likely.

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Ukraine’s economy contracted 15.9 percent last quarter, extending the former Soviet state’s decline, as political wrangling stalled the payment of bailout funds needed to keep the country afloat.

“Although the rate of decline of GDP is slowing, non- performing loans continue to grow,” Moody’s Investors Service said on Oct. 14. “Susceptibility to event risk that would lead to a multi-notch downgrade is assessed as high.” Moody’s rates Ukraine B2, while Fitch ranks the sovereign’s debt B-. Standard & Poor’s rates Ukraine CCC+. The three services’ ratings range between five and seven notches below investment grade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a5t8mso.EYlU

Anonymous's picture

I haved lived in Kiev all life. At fist there was much panic and misunderstand. But now all is well. The flu is not reall. It is just a hoax of political reason. No worries:) We all are laughing at press!

Actually, I live in America; never been to the Ukraine; but that doesn't stop me from getting on blogs and posting whatever bullshit I want. Don't believe everything you read, one way or the other, but keep reading nonetheless.

MsCreant's picture

It can be the economy collapsing or not, gold going up or down, dollar, flu, any of it. We all have to sort through bullshit and make up our minds. Even if PM is being duped, it is still a starting place in a conversation that needs to happen.  If he is a dupe, he is a victim of professional liars, like all of us have been. If he is correct, take on supplies, pick up our anchors, and let's get out of Port fast.

And the truth may be in the middle, there is an outbreak, it could get bad but it is not bad now, and their press is amping it up for effect.

I'm glad PM brought it to our attention, even if he ends up wrong.  It does not have to be all or nothing. Truth is much weirder than on or off.

Howard_Beale's picture

MsCreant,

Please read my post above. I am a little better now AND a bit pissed when people do not believe this is a serious bug with life threatening implications. I am 51 and very sick. My 10 year old daughter had to be hospitalized with swine. My 6'2" very strong 27 year son on the west coast was crying after 9 days and still not feeling better a few weeks ago. He has recovered. None of us are dead. I am perhaps at the highest risk due to other medical complications--but for the flu to be at the levels it is at now on November 16th is significant. My sister is a scientist at UM medical school and kids are dropping like flies. This is not your normal flu season. It will stop commerce.

When I went to the hospital for my swabbing they told me to stop nowhere and get home. I guess the 103 temp at the time tipped em off. But it's this simple--whether this is cyclical pandemic or some other ilk, my family has been hit hard. I am so tired of people saying it is over-hyped. I was in Toronto and left the house once in 3 weeks (I have a serious leg injury) and two days later I was toast. I have had the flu many times in my life but nothing comes close to this and all of you that haven't had this one should be grateful.

MsCreant's picture

I remember when you took off with a medical issue and I said bye and good luck and no pity (you didn't want it), just get back to us.

Two kids in my son's school system died of swine. They both had other infections. My 14 year old son had something that relapsed (I could not sleep through a night, it was like having to wake up every two hours with a new baby again). It got bad when we did not have him on Acetaminophen. My husband (couple years older than you, body builder/vitamin poppin' never gets sick fitness type) was slammed with something that wracked his body with pain and fever and painful cough. He had NEVER been that sick before. He would not go to the doc, but we got through it.  I was prepped out to the gills because of my tinhat sites. Still am. At work I sat 6 feet from the table for committee meetings as per policy when you have sick family. I have missed some work because of sick family members. Me, the one who catches everything, nursed everyone, I did NOT get sick. Go figure.

I believe you. I think there is something different happening. I understand your anger. I also understand the anger of someone who might really be in the Ukraine, seeing nothing and reading all this disinformation. I actually believe both, though the Anon in the Ukraine would be easy to spoof. Howard Beale, not so much.

No dis, Howard, just keeping an open mind.

Anonymous's picture

You don't believe me?

Email me at percolator469 at yahoo dot com and I'll put you in contact with my friends and business associates who will tell you the truth about what is happening here.

Or better yet, get on a plane and come over and see for yourself which is what PM should have done before reporting spreading these lies.

Anonymous's picture

I thought they revoked Rebecca Carley's license back in 2003?

MinnesotaNice's picture

I think she lives in New York state... and is not listed as having a license to practice as a physician.  Bio information includes: 

Dr. Carley no longer “practices medicine”, but instead teaches clients nationally and internationally how to reverse their diseases using the Hippocrates protocol she developed. She also goes into the hospital as a patient advocate for clients who are not satisfied with the care their loved ones are receiving.

MsCreant's picture

Folks, either outcome, the government suppressing or the government making it up, the case of Ukrane is worth our consideration.

We need to find out the truth.

Anonymous's picture

I'll tell you the truth MsCreant.

PM's post is pure bullsh!t. How do I know?

I'm living in the Ukraine right now and currently there is absolutely no threat of a deadly flu spreading across Ukraine wiping out Eastern Europe.

PM is just reporting the lies that the gov't here is telling its people to scare them.

Its all politics with the elections coming up in January and a way to get financial aid.

Gordon_Gekko's picture

How do we know you are, in fact, a Ukraine resident and not a misinformation spreading government minion?

Anonymous's picture

I'm a US citizen, currently living in Zaporozhye.

Email me at percolator469 (at) yahoo (dot) com, I'll put you in contact with some of my friends and business associates here and they'll be happy to tell you the truth.

Or better get yourself on a plane and come here and see first hand, something PM should have done before spreading these lies.

MinnesotaNice's picture

Thanks for contributing anon... it is nice to have feet on the ground... to see what is actually going on...

Anonymous's picture

Oh yes, indeed.

I vote the you should be our supreme leader.

The President of Naïveté.

(Polls close at midnight, you are running unopposed).

Bear's picture

Just shorted CCL ... feel free to join me.

Bruce Krasting's picture

Population of the Ukraine = 46mm. So 1.4mm sick is = 3% of the population. Not a pandemic. Pandemic would be when we get to 20%.

US cases now at 22m over the last 6 months. That is 6%. A much larger number.

The business in the Ukraine is about politics, not the numbers.

jbt6561's picture

anyone want to run a linear regression model on the correlation between the daily returns on the s&p and the cases of h1n1 in Kiev?

Anonymous's picture

hey maheim. come on now man. seriously. what is wrong with killing several more million white people in the ukraine? heck, its not like they have never done it before...

EQ's picture

Another clown post.  If this is legitimate, it is a business impact analysis.  Running these types of scenarios to plan for business continuity is a regular practice for mature organizations.  Running a scenario where one considers a 100% chance of a pandemic means what?  That IBM was planning for potential disasters.  This shows nothing of conspiracy.

EQ's picture

This is another dubious post from ZH.  The site was much better when it was just Tyler Durden(s) and you were focused on topics you well understood.  This is nothing more than mania driven by a factless article that never should have been posted.  It's author may turn out to be onto something but given he surely isn't a flu researcher or even a medical scientist, it's more than likely just paparazzi fueling the idiocy of the mob.  And that is really who posts comments on here anymore.  Clowns.

 

It's time you get back to fundamentals and what you were good at.  You are diluting your legitimacy.  For what reasons I don't know.  Ad profits from the site?

NRGTDR's picture

IMO: ZH welcomes out of the box thinking as do I. People here are always looking for a non-herd/MSM edge with the ultimate goal of seeking truth. At least there is an original thought or idea here daily. Fundamentals? It's pretty obvious fundamentally where the world is and will be soon. If anything, reading ZH over the last months should have helped you on that immensely and quite frankly, we are past the point of no return, as is the nature of the fiat system. So.......may you profit from an idea or bit of information you find here but most importantly prepare wisely. 

EQ's picture

Don't be an idiot. Out of the box thinking? Johnny Cochran was good at out of the box thinking. Making shit up is what it was called in the courtroom. I can pull just about any out of the box thinking out of my arse that my vivid imagination can imagine. And, that is what this post is. Out of the box thinking that is supported by scientific fact, incontrovertible evidence or, worst case, some god forsaken amount of legitimacy would be quite appropriate. Eh? This is mob-fanning stupidity.

Gordon_Gekko's picture

What are you doing here government minion?

EQ's picture

Keeping the monkeys like you from running the zoo.