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As Dealers Hoard 2 Year OTRs Ahead Of "Operation Twist 2" (Aka QE 3) They Flip Longer-Dated Bonds

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Unlike yesterday's POMO, which as only we pointed out first "curiously" saw not a single monetization of the OTR 2 Year bond QZ6, today things were just as predicted, with the just issued QQ6 amounting to the most monetized issue of all (at $1.6 billion), or a third of the entire $4.7 billion operation, just as expected this morning. Why is this not surprising: because today's operation targeted 5-7 year bonds, or, simply said, bonds to the right of where as we noted yesterday, Bill Gross now believes Operation Twist 2 will take place. Furthermore, as Zero Hedge concluded yesterday, when discussing the 2-3 Year point on the curve, " why sell today at 0.44% when you can wait a month and sell them back to Brian Sack at 0.00%." Well, the 2 Year is not 0.00% yet... But is now at the tightest it has been since November, touching on 0.39% as everyone is now rushing to frontrun the Fed's interest rate cap on the 2 Year, which could possibly be as low as 0.20%. Also, that Operation Twist is nothing short of another unsterilized Quantitative Easing program, we expect that stocks and much more importantly, commodities, will soon begin to price reality in. Expect much more clarity when the June 22 FOMC meeting is released. In the meantime, observe the massive outlier that the 2 Year has been over the past two days, or since the release of the Gross tweet.

Incidentally, if Gross is right about Operation Twist, he is also right about what will happen to the bond curve at the end of QE2, which now has just $47 billion to go.

 

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Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:40 | 1371172 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So now the US economy revolves around front running these worthless bond monetization exercises? 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:41 | 1371178 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

that is why they are a worthless investment.

Buy Gold and you will sleep better at night. I know I do.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:38 | 1371184 CreditcalMass
CreditcalMass's picture

You'd sleep much better if you bought brass and lead.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:43 | 1371192 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I have lots of all those things.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:42 | 1371203 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

glocks, gold and good booze.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:03 | 1371264 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

you would be better with a smaller caliber round.. considering you are a girl and thusly a wuss.. its not you fault you throw like a girl..

 

so, a smaller round with lots of them.. in case you miss alot! or in case you are cute and there are a LOT of People chasing you!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cR4-WPfnqgw&feature=related

 

or a .22 Magnum (which is a long gun cartridge used in a hand gun platform).. same kick(ish) / recoil.

 

Both defeat body armor less than level 2.. think what the ganster rappers wear or meter maids.

 

easy to shoot, for girls or old people and as opposed to all those 9mm, 10mm and / or 50 cal lovers.. the two rounds that I have offered you will defeat body armor.

 

Good Luck and Be Safe.. dont be a sheep! buy what works not what is popular among idiots!

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:03 | 1371282 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

My 5' 3 fiance shoots my SW 29 .44 mag all the time, loves it. The argument about 'womens calibers' is most hyped and over rated.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:19 | 1371325 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'd go with an "official Red Ryder, carbine action, two-hundred shot range model air rifle"...

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:19 | 1371327 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

You'll shoot your eye out kid!

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:24 | 1371350 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

SheepDog-One,

 

are you offering yourself up for the education of everyone else? well you are a good sport and God Bless ya fo doin it!

 

1. Recoil. being able to stay on target or aquire another target quickly. 

2. Penetration. what will the .22 Long (let alone the 5.7) penetrate v. the 44?

3. Capacity. how many bullets will a revolver hold v. either or the others.

4. Carry Ease? for gun.

5. Carry Ease? for ammo.

Cost to shoot a .22 long v. a 44 mag? which means more hands on time which is always good.

 

Thanks Buddy for taking one for the Team or Greater Good!

 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:28 | 1371366 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"Capacity. how many bullets will a revolver hold v. either or the others."

---

The 'ol "Do you feel lucky? Well do you punk"... argument

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:57 | 1371540 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

I guess you don't live bear country JW.

I would also guess that you take the time to clean and maintain you guns, I my case I have a whole collection of well placed revolvers that will do what they are designed to, if I ever need them, and I don't have to worry about springs being stored under tension.

As much as I personally hate glocks and refuse to own any in a caliber other than 10mm, parts and ammunition are readily available for them.

Penetration is a valid consideration and a desirable goal, but size does matter, unless one has a very refined technique.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 13:34 | 1371746 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I spend most of my Time in South Florida any more.. so only little bears and the piggs can eat the bears so???

 

but I gave her a 12ga for the house.. and if she is in bear country I would offer her a .308w for taking care of anything that comes along when she is cooking dinner!

 

My Mother wants a place in the Mountains.. I can just see her cooking / stewing with the windows open and skipping around here garden and becoming dinner for a bear. Given that she is a S. FL girl.. she is not ready for the difference in risks.. but I love her! crazy as she is! what can you do? pray and load them up and pray some more!

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 14:13 | 1371950 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

My wife likes central Brazil, my mother wanted a place in the mountains, her mother wanted Sun City.  Times change, predators and threats change.  Keeping the family well armed and fed never changes. 

I hope Florida holds it together, because I would really hate for my next trip to be a domestic extraction.  I much prefer the Corona and Cuban on a Gulf beach at sunset.    

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 18:21 | 1372817 falak pema
falak pema's picture

As an american you reason more like a member of the Bonano or rival clan. Its mind boggling. Are you a semi feral like that Gwar character describes new urban USA after the  crash?  Maybe you should go live with Chavez to protect your family. If Castro's Cuba is not to your flavour. 

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 14:43 | 1375366 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

I had never thought about it that way.

But I spend a lot of time in undeveloped economies, where food and safety are luxuries. When I return, I am cognizant that I could be accidentally killed by some of that public transportation that is so expensive it makes Goldman millionaires whine like children. 

Chavez is a thug, with an uncanny ability to turn gold into lead as a cost or byproduct of his personal ambition.  After what it cost my family to escape and then try to liberate Cuba- the only way I'm going there is in a well equipped boat to make war or peace, not to sit on my ass and watch beautiful sunsets. 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:09 | 1371301 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I might add.. that a hand gun is for carry.

 

so a hand gun for you to carry..

and then.. (no and then!)

a shotgun for the house..

good shotgun? depending on what you can spend..

Mossberg JIC (just in case) is cheap and it works! well!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mA_KklQsYFw&feature=related

if you want to spend the money on something that will have value later a Benelli is best.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMIzdnrmH-k

and more to the point.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lyed7nZf9J4

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:30 | 1371393 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Who said all socialists are bad? You are my favorite commie in the world, JW.

I also humbily submit the Remington 870 for another option for home defense.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 13:43 | 1371771 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

what makes you think that I a commie? becuase I believe, like the good book says? that those that have more are charged with the resposiblity of providing.

 

I can never, ever spend all the money that I can make.. ever! why do I care if I pay a Flat Tax so that NONE of my fellow Americans are hungry? No children in this Country should be hungry.. but! we have places in the United States where the Birth rate of children are worse than in africa! that is to say that more babies in africa are born safely than places in the United States.. all so some AAA rated corporation can pay NO Taxes and have subsidies coming out the ass? fuck them and fuck that..

 

I am not a commie! I am just not stupid enough to believe the shit they pump on the 24 hour a day news channels..

 

you wanna know why your grandma's social security is on the chopping block? the top 1% of the 1% doesnt pay any taxes.. they own fucking 35+% of everything and pay NO fucking taxes??

 

Top 10 corporations which paid no taxes

Here is Sen. Sanders’ list of the 10 worst corporate income tax avoiders:

1) Exxon Mobil made $19 billion in profits in 2009. Exxon not only paid no federal income taxes, it actually received a $156 million rebate from the IRS, according to its SEC filings. (Source: Exxon Mobil’s 2009 shareholder report filed with the SEC here.)

2) Bank of America received a $1.9 billion tax refund from the IRS last year, although it made $4.4 billion in profits and received a bailout from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department of nearly $1 trillion. (Source: Forbes.com here, ProPublica here and Treasury here.)

3) General Electric made $26 billion in profits in the United States over the past five years and, thanks to clever use of loopholes, paid no taxes.(Source: Citizens for Tax Justice here and The New York Times here. Note: despite rumors to the contrary, the Times has stood by its story.)

4) Chevron received a $19 million refund from the IRS last year after it made $10 billion in profits in 2009. (Source: See 2009 Chevron annual report here. Note 15 on page FS-46 of this report shows a U.S. federal income tax liability of $128 million, but that it was able to defer $147 million for a U.S. federal income tax liability of negative $19 million.)

5) Boeing, which received a $30 billion contract from the Pentagon to build 179 airborne tankers, got a $124 million refund from the IRS last year. (Source: Paul Buchheit, professor, DePaul University, here and Citizens for Tax Justice here.)

6) Valero Energy, the 25th largest company in America with $68 billion in sales last year, received a $157 million tax refund check from the IRS and, over the past three years, received a $134 million tax break from the oil and gas manufacturing tax deduction. (Source: the company’s 2009 annual report, pg. 112, here.)

7) Goldman Sachs in 2008 only paid 1.1 percent of its income in taxes even though it earned a profit of $2.3 billion and received an almost $800 billion from the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Department. (Source: Bloomberg News here, ProPublica here, Treasury Department here.)

8) Citigroup last year made more than $4 billion in profits but paid no federal income taxes. It received a $2.5 trillion bailout from the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury. (Source: Paul Buchheit, professor, DePaul University, here, ProPublica here, Treasury Department here.)

9) ConocoPhillips, the fifth largest oil company in the United States, made $16 billion in profits from 2006 through 2009, but received $451 million in tax breaks through the oil and gas manufacturing deduction. (Sources: Profits can be found here. The deduction can be found on the company’s 2010 SEC 10-K report to shareholders on 2009 finances, pg. 127, here.)

10) Carnival Cruise Lines made more than $11 billion in profits over the past five years, but its federal income tax rate during those years was just 1.1 percent. (Source: The New York Times here.)

http://www.greenpartywatch.org/2011/04/30/top-10-corporations-who-paid-no-taxes/

 

and...

 

‘Dutch Sandwich’ saves Google billions in taxes Internet giant uses complex structure to keep its overseas tax rate at 2.4%

 

and.. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39784907/ns/business-us_business/t/dutch-sandwich-saves-google-billions-taxes/

 

 

Microsoft’s purchase of Skype for $8.5 billion provides a perfect illustration of why adopting a true worldwide corporate income tax system is critical to our economic future.  

According to the Wall Street Journal, the cash for Microsoft’s purchase of Skype (a Luxembourg-based company) will come out of its $42 billion in liquid assets held in foreign subsidiaries.

Because it is purchasing a foreign company with its overseas assets, Microsoft can avoid paying any U.S. tax that would be due if it had repatriated foreign earnings in order to purchase a US company for the same amount. Based on the company's effective foreign income tax rate disclosed in their most recent SEC filings, a repatriation of $8.5 billion dollars would cost Microsoft somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.1 billion in U.S. tax.

As a Forbes commentator opines, the Microsoft-Skype deal demonstrates the harmful incentive created in our current system that encourages companies to invest in overseas companies rather than domestic ones. The fear is that this deal may just be “a harbinger of things to come.”

http://www.ctj.org/taxjusticedigest/archive/federal_tax_issues/tax_avoidance_tax_evasion_and/offshore_abuses/

 

Republicans to roll out new tax-cut proposal: WSJ
25 May 2011, by Michael Kitchen - Los Angeles (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/republicans-to-roll-out-new-tax-cut-proposal-wsj-2011-05-25

Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives are set to unveil a new economic proposal Thursday that will cut taxes for multinational corporations and lower other tax rates.

 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 22:02 | 1373298 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Hey, I hate corporations too. Higher and more taxes is not how to get them in my humble opinion. The way to get them is competition and innovation which can make them obsolete in a couple years. Higher taxes and more taxes and more complicated regulations hurts their smaller competition with those dreaded innovations more than them so it actually helps them. I understand where you're coming from and that is why you are one of the most likeable commies I ever met.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:16 | 1371311 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

emphasis on the booze (at least I can enjoy myself now as well as later)...

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:54 | 1371227 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Tungstun and Copper!

 

 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:56 | 1371249 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

Yeah no kidding, the real deal stuff.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:43 | 1371195 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

If THIS is the much anticipated and price-in to infinity QE3, oh man there are going to be a lot of kicking and screaming temper tantrums real soon!

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 18:27 | 1372868 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Depends whose standing guard over you and the gold and sleeping when you coddle your gold. He deserves your silver at least.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:44 | 1371194 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

yeah and jumping in and out of the reflation trade at the right times.  We are all speculators now.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:50 | 1371225 Boston
Boston's picture

Yes, exactly.

Here's to hoping the 5 yr "drops" to 1.0%.

And BTW, when I book my profits, I buy PM's.  I've bought a lot of PM's over the last 2 weeks.

Thank you Ben Bernanke!

 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:41 | 1371200 King Dong
King Dong's picture

Can anyone explain where commodity prices are heading with this twist?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:48 | 1371211 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

$1,526 so far.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:57 | 1371255 King Dong
King Dong's picture

Roger that SD-O

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:24 | 1371351 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

My guess is that they try to "paper short" the hell out of everything PM related in the beginning to get everyone wrongfooted...

With the "other hand" buying all the physical they can get their hands on...

Then let nature take it's course...

 

 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:51 | 1371215 Boston
Boston's picture

.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:52 | 1371216 etrader
etrader's picture

Maybe the FED should rename operation twist (oT2)...... "Divine Wind"

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:50 | 1371228 gwar5
gwar5's picture

OTR2: Fraud by bankers just doing God's work is grossly underappreciated by the ungrateful unwashed masses.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:54 | 1371229 So Close
So Close's picture

All your free markets are belong to us.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:54 | 1371240 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Unreal how there is a mad panic into Treasuries.

Bill Gross must be bleeding profusely.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:56 | 1371252 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, Bill Gross called it, but is on the wrong side of it. Robo cant you just put yourself in a burlap sack and throw yourself into a pond?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:29 | 1371372 Boston
Boston's picture

Someone's BUYING Treasuries......

Oh look, could it be .... China?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304186404576387370007157448.html?KEYWORDS=china

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 11:57 | 1371256 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

dont we need to get somewhat "crashy" before QE3 starts?  can the S&P go under 1100 by next week? 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:03 | 1371266 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I guess theres no time to panic the sheeple with the market going down and all that puppet show, just straight from one QE to the next apparently.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:04 | 1371260 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Come on everybody, do the 2wist !

So much better than QE3....eeew.  Plus it sounds kinda kinky and it just makes the Obama Administration seem that much more like Camelot II.

Can't you just feel the rise of the oceans slowing and the planet healing?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:01 | 1371267 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

the 1st reaction is to puke stocks up and buy both the short and long end.  If the fed pins the 2y to the floor and lets the long end flap in the wind does the vig then crush the pm's ? I have no clue just asking.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:24 | 1371347 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Why would PMs get crushed?  Sell the 2y, buy the 10 or 30.  Stealth monetization using the PDs.  PMs go vertical.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:05 | 1371285 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

The only thing in a "twist" is Ben's underwear.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:24 | 1371352 mberry8870
mberry8870's picture

And as the credit markets begin to seize up who will have the biggest funding problem based on the biggest malinvestment?

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:27 | 1371383 vortex
vortex's picture

And so you never bite the hand that feeds you...

Gross on CNBC:

"Should the debt problem in Greece explode into a full-blown crisis—an International Monetary Fund bailout has prevented a full-scale meltdown so far—Gross predicted that German debt, not that of the US, would be the safe-haven of choice for global investors.

 

vvvvv

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 12:49 | 1371505 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

ZH well in front of the curve on this one. thanks for the great work.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 13:26 | 1371686 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Second that, but there will be no joy in saying, "I told you so" when this plays out. Unrecoverable system error.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 13:12 | 1371618 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Would be fucking funny if they pull a fast one on the banks and do like the UK and take advantage of the panic bid when the EU blows up to extend maturities instead.

 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 13:22 | 1371684 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Operation Twist is another form of theft to aid insolvent institutions and a last desperate attempt to the fund the centrally planned regime around the world in order to further impose rapacious policies. Much like previous policies this will not succeed in the stated goals of the kleptocrats and as they push their agenda further they only expose themselves further as liars, frauds, cheaters, and souless beings.

The people have had enough, and they are awakening-- moreover justice is coming and it will be unforgiving.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 13:47 | 1371792 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

I don't particularly understand what all this means to the market (stocks, PMs et al) but me still thinks you give too much credit to the people. 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 13:51 | 1371837 iPood
iPood's picture

The original operation Twist had the objective of containing rates at the long end of the yield curve, while holding rates constant at the short end (flattening) for the purpose of stimulating home financing without causing a complete dollar rout. What is the economic purpose, other than stealth monetization, of Twisting two years out? What effect will this have on money market funds? Interestingly, the EDZ12 is prediciting  an annualized rate of 95bps for 3 month Eurodollar deposits in December '12. If the two year really caps at 20bps, as stated above, it seems like the futures are underpriced, yes? (The EDU11 is priced at about 38 bps, taking a pretty big dip today, likely as a result of EU bank liquidity concerns.) Something's gotta give! Any thoughts from this erudite ZH group much appreciated, but the Twist really does seem to be the big story getting the least press (except for here on ZH, of course). Thanks!

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 14:34 | 1372041 ssp2s
ssp2s's picture

IMHO, the Fed's short-term problem is that yields would be expected to jump once QE2 ends, and the Fed may feel it does not have the political capital to engage in overt QE3.  So it appears that OT2 is a possible solution to the Fed's short-term problem by letting the Fed keep the short end yields down while not having to call it QE.  I think this is the purpose.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 14:55 | 1372096 Tinsu
Tinsu's picture

What does TD mean by this:

 

.. we expect that stocks and much more importantly, commodities, will soon begin to price reality in.

 

I assume stocks would drop.  Would that be due to the fact there will be NO more gravy train for the TBTF's trading departments from the slippery, sloppery soup of QE2?

 

Why would this hurt commodities?  Shouldn't they rally like Wiener's Weiner when some pulls out a Blackberry and says, "I didn't know this phone had a camera?  What should I take a pic of?"

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 22:50 | 1373380 Element
Element's picture
(Aka QE 3) They Flip Longer-Dated Bonds

 

but ... isn't that a bit like chasing your own tail ... in ever decreasing circles ... until you disappear up your own financial a-hole?

What happens at that point? ... are we transport into a parallel financial universe where the printers ink is golden, and milked from dewy-eye small mammals?

Please tell us Bill!

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