Debt Ceiling Not To Be Resolved Until July?

Tyler Durden's picture

Part 2 of the Great Beltway Soap Opera promises to be quite entertaining. According to Reuters, even though the US desperately needs to get a debt ceiling resolution immediately (we are at a point when any debt auction could be the last, depending on how many refunds the Treasury has to issue at any given point), Republicans are resolved to "stretch out negotiations on raising the U.S. debt limit until July....Prolonging negotiations past mid-May when Washington will hit its debt limit could give Republicans more leverage to secure big spending cuts, but it could worry investors as the country runs up against a possible default. The Republicans said they would act before that happened." The only question is whether bond investors (no matter how deflationary attuned) will stay in bonds before any possible compromise. Of course, should yields surge as a result of political "instability" it will merely reinforce the continuation of an easing regime, especially since Goldman is now obviously in a faux-disinflationary regime (more thoughts on that imminently, together with how to trade the unwind of Goldman remaining "Top Trades for 2011" following purported Bill Dudley instructions). And if the debt ceiling debate is in any way comparable to the grotesque farce that was the $38.5 billion, pardon $14.7 billion spending cut, then America is certainly buggered.

From Reuters:

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and Eric Cantor, the No. 2 Republican in the House of Representatives, fired the opening shots in what is expected to be a bitter fight with the White House over increasing the U.S. borrowing limit to enable the country to keep paying its debts.

In a speech on Wednesday, President Barack Obama will lay out his vision for reducing U.S. deficits to a manageable level through tax increases, spending cuts and changes to expensive healthcare programs for the poor and elderly.

Republicans plan to pass a rival plan in the House this week that would lower top tax rates, further slash domestic spending and eventually cut benefits in government-run health programs.

"Tax increases are unacceptable and a nonstarter," House Speaker John Boehner said in a statement. "We don't have deficits because Americans are taxed too little, we have deficits because Washington spends too much."

 McConnell and Cantor said separately that Congress would hold a vote sometime between those two dates.

"We anticipate that this debt ceiling issue will come before us between Memorial Day (May 30) and the Fourth of July," McConnell said.

Cantor said: "Treasury if I'm not mistaken has put forth a notice which says there is a window within which we have to act in order to avoid the eventual default of this country on its debt. And I believe that that outside deadline is early July."

Republicans see the debt limit vote as an opportunity to win further spending cuts, and say they will not support an increase without them. All 47 Republicans in the Senate have signed on to a measure that would amend the Constitution to require a balanced budget.

Some analysts were skeptical of the Republican strategy.

Once again, for the cheap seats:

Experts warn the country could eventually face a Greek-style debt crisis, and the International Monetary Fund urged the United States on Tuesday to outline credible measures to reduce deficits.

The government will run up against its current debt limit of $14.3 trillion by May 16, according to the Treasury Department. Without an increase, the country would default on its debt, roiling bond markets and pushing up interest rates for businesses and individuals.

The Treasury has said it can postpone the day of reckoning until July 8 by using a variety of measures.

Some so called expert opinions:

"I think that's the wrong thing to do," said Lou Brien, a market strategist with DRW Trading Group in Chicago. "It risks the perception of default, and I think right now the market is thinking that there will be more adults than that, but we will see how that plays out."

Mary Miller, Treasury's assistant secretary for financial markets, said it would be "highly disruptive" if Congress did not raise the debt limit before the current ceiling was reached in mid-May.

And tonight's trivia: name the speaker.

"The fact that we are
here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of
leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its
own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial
assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless
fiscal policies
. … Increasing America’s debt weakens us
domestically and internationally. Leadership means that ‘the buck stops
here. Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today
onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt
problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.

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monopoly's picture

Thomas Jefferson? We need someone like him.

chumbawamba's picture

Why?  He would just be ignored, labeled as a kook by the American media, and quickly forgotten.

I am Chumbawamba.

curbyourrisk's picture

According to all government standards...Thomas Jefferson ( along with Ben Franklin and George Washington and all of our faounding fathers) would be labeled domestic terrorists and held without bail.  We live in a sad excuse of a country and it is about damn time the American people take back what is ours!!!!!

MacroStory's picture

Barack OH Bama - what do I win?

gordengeko's picture

Columbia College of Columbia University, completed Bachelor’s degree in political science, specialized in international relations.
Harvard Law School, earned J.D. degree

Andrew Jackson
1767 - 1845
President 1829 - 1837
No college education.
Read law for two years and became practicing lawyer with no degree.

Abraham Lincoln
1809 - 1865
President 1861 - 1865
No college education. Lincoln had less than one full year of formal education in his life, in a log cabin school taught by unqualified teachers. He did a great deal of reading at home, and later worked in a store, where he had an opportunity to spend time reading numerous newspapers and other periodicals of the day. Went into Illinois politics after a very brief military career.

John Kennedy
1917 - 1963
President 1961 – 1963 (assassinated)
Graduated from elite prep school Choate, voted "Most likely to become President" by classmates there
Entered London School of Economics, undergraduate, but returned home after just three weeks due to poor health
Princeton University, undergraduate. Attended six weeks before being sent home to be observed for possible diagnosis of leukemia
Harvard University, competed undergraduate degree, graduated cum laude
Stanford Graduate School of Business. Left before completing degree to join military
(Did not agree with the policies of the ruling class and verbally spoke out against them.)


Any questions

Muir's picture

Well, yeah, but how's this news good for Silver?

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The banks have none, yet need to collateralize an asset (cheap) for loan.

HamyWanger's picture

The debt ceiling has never mattered, except in the bigoted and paranoid mind of Constitution-obsessed, anti-State, anti-Federal Reserve, anti-inflation, anti-debt libertarians. 

The debt ceiling will be hiked with no discussion on the limit date. Same as it ever was.

Learn it, love it, trade it. 

Sock Puppet's picture

Well we did borrow the money, the only right thing to do is to borrow more to make interest payments.  It is the responsible thing to do and any patriot should support our government in this decision.

HamyWanger's picture

Exactly. Anybody who opposes the increase of the debt limit is a traitor to our Government, and should be immediately convicted with aggravated felony. 

We all know what would happen if the ceiling is not raised, including the end of payments for our military. 

This cannot be acceptable, and anyone who condones this should be sentenced to the electric chair for putting in danger the lives of our fellow Americans. 

mark mchugh's picture

(yes, the irony completely escaped him)

Sock Puppet's picture

I don't know about them deserving the electric chair, but I am sure a lot of dissenters on this site are being actively monitored  by the government.  Some of the other sock puppets around here actually call for violence just to see who will chime in and support them, then one of the agencies monitors those individuals, you know like a domestic terrorist watch list. 

Also, if they don't raise the debt level I run the risk of losing my job, as well as the many other sock pupets that work this site.

TheGreatPonzi's picture

The SPLC is already on the job. 

HamyWanger's picture

I've always supported the close monitoring of crazed lunatics and fringe groups too. 

In the USSR, those who opposed communism were put in psychiatric asylums, and sometimes submitted to electroshocks or lobotomy (a tiny piece of metal was inserted in their frontal lobes).

I do not condone such extreme measures, of course, and I'm not a communist (only a liberal) so I think 'pacific' reeducation camps are sufficient, especially for the innocent kids who have been brainwashed by their redneck libertarian parents into believing the "evil" State is responsible for all their problems. 

Doña K's picture

How does a liberal like you preserve wealth?

Selah's picture


Ask your hubby...


Doña K's picture

You are funny. He keeps mumbling about maples eagles bars or something like that.

Maybe.... bars=lieutenant, maple=a major and eagle=colonel. Oh! I get it. They are all made out of gold. Now I get him. He is no dummy I tell you.   

Sock Puppet's picture

CIA purchases stake in firm monitoring social networking

"Each post is scored as 'positive', 'negative', 'mixed' or 'neutral' furthermore the software has the ability to examine just how influential a conversation on a website or even a particular author is. Finally, the software has the ability for a user to tag posts, forward the information to a colleague and then receive feedback as to their opinion regarding the data."

topcallingtroll's picture

Fun summer camps for the kids.

Support groups and medications.for the paranoid parents who dont want to teach their kids how to think, but merely regurgitate talking points.

reNeducation for fans of the Simpsons.

cossack55's picture

Uh, duh! Ya think? We are ALL being monitored at different levels by the US gestapo/KGB/Stassi/NKVD (for history lovers). Screw your job, worry about your useless life. You enjoy being a wage slave?

MSimon's picture

I have been monitored for 50 years. F 'em.

Global Hunter's picture

Anybody who debases the currency and robs from the working, lower middle, middle, upper middle classes and the elderly on fixed incomes is a traitor.

RafterManFMJ's picture

Noted. Stay where you are, somebody will be with you shortly.

Cash_is_Trash's picture

GH, attempting to subvert state power, are we?

Janet, Janet, Janet Napolitano, your fucked up brain is required to place ever more restrictions on free speech.

curbyourrisk's picture

Wanger is a total freakin loon.  Tool for the establishment....  Our first target should be people just like this!

topcallingtroll's picture

You guys are so funny junking hamy.

You know it is hamy not harry right?

This is hamy's shtic.

It is funny cuz people keep taking the bait!

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Agreed, a master indeed. Most are worked-up about the shit he says.

Which is coincidentally what Barry would say.

monopoly's picture

Oh of course you are right. I was hoping for a leader.

jeff montanye's picture

i'd add some stock puts to the silver.

ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

What would a "default" in this context really mean to the markets though?  

Printing money with wild abandon is a form of default and the US is already doing that.  Wouldn't the govt be in a position to selectively default anyway?  American citizens will put up with being stiffed if it's explained to them that this is temporary and all the fault of those evil Republicans (or Democrats). 


I cannot imagine foreigners bearing the brunt of such an event.  If the US can ban gold ownership among it's own citizens but still redeem the currency for Gold to foreigners, I don't see why the govt cannot pick and choose who they honor their agreements with, as suits them in the moment.  US citizens have no choice about continuing to play.

Conrad Murray's picture

Either people sack up and stop paying taxes, or STFU and submit. Those are the options.

cossack55's picture

Short and concise. +14 trillion

NOTW777's picture

obamas speech on wed should be hilarious - winning the future. maybe he announces c.sheen replacing biden - dragon blood and all.  i m sure the crowd of seals will go wild for tax increases.  do they come with waivers - like obamacare?

narnia's picture

Maybe the Treasury can just sale-leaseback the white house, the pentagon & all of our overseas bases to the Fed in exchange for them printing up $5 trillion of Federal Reserve Notes.  This would probably circumvent the debt ceiling rules.   

crash_davis's picture

The speaker is the speech writer who put the words on O-bummer's teleprompter.

UHHHH Let me be clear... (best obama impression)

It's all bread and circuses for the masses except they are playing with our kids and grand-kids future. 

Doña K's picture

My hubby told me that: Too much fluoride in the water helps you see oramata or godly visions aka Obama-rama. I don't get him sometimes but he knows a lot of stuff

cossack55's picture

Are you my wife? I've been trying to get her to read ZH for two years, all to no avail. So, yes, dear, ZH gets it.

DoctoRx's picture

All this stuff about our kids and grandkids future is far too optimistic.  It's what the MSM wants you to think-- so they can present you with "long term" budget analyses.  BS.  It's about tomorrow, not 20 or 40 years from now.  

Once you start talking about that time frame, no one will take the measures needed to restore economic health and freedom.

They're playing with our future - and the present.


Cash_is_Trash's picture

If your a baby boomer, you've lived pretty damn well haven't you? -- At the expense of your children and grandchildren.

The boomer generation has created entitlements for themselves that nobody can fucking afford.

I hope the children of the previous generation, pulls and Iceland to the creditors.

Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Correct me if I'm wrong, but not raising the debt ceiling wouldn't trigger a default, per se.  It would mean that the Treasury couldn't pay more than what they get in incoming tax receipts.  Maturing debt could still be flipped.  Though, tax receipts are so low, Treasury would only be able to afford to pay interest and one among defense, SS, or Medicare.


In order to retain leverage and string out the negotiations, you may see a short term hike in the debt ceiling, say $200 billion.  Enough to give negotiations more time and wrap it into a larger deal for the 2012 budget.

Seasmoke's picture

The Hypocrite in the white house , talking about the last hypocrite in the white house

Caviar Emptor's picture

So here's the flip side of the same debate, of major interest to ZHers: What if it's Not a Gold bubble? Everyone in the financial media, global central bankers and Wall Street Ibankers keep hammering home the theme that there's a gold "bubble" that soon will bust into gold confetti. Kinda cool. But totally off the mark and they're sweating. That's because the real bubble is the cheap money bubble and it's gone global and nuclear. They can't find enough places to stash the cash anymore. Every country is in printing mode and there are fewer and fewer places for that money to be put to work safely. Interest rates are negative, sovereign debt is getting more and more dubious, the US real economy is in depression and developing nations are trying to restrict capital flows. Corporations are busting with "cash on the balance sheet" that should be racing to be deployed as investment, but it's not. The more depressed the developed economies get, the more they print. So spiraling natural resource prices mask the deflation while the depressed economy masks  the inflation. 

Gold and PM demand is growing in direct proportion to the money bubble and when that one busts you'll want PMs at hand

Misean's picture

Hot money is sloshing around the globe looking for assets to bubble. It's not that it can't find a place to "work" per se, it's just that there ain't no one to lever up a bubble big enough to absorb it. It's like all 10 poker and black jack tables have a billion dollar limit and the 10 players have a trillion each to play with...the tables are too small now...any attempt to make a killing breaks the house.

Selah's picture


Interesting analogy!

Now I understand what I read about "Gold is too cheap" for major money to move into.


Caviar Emptor's picture

Hehe. There are no limits in the real world, and more money just brings on higher prices. A billionaire goes shopping in a small town where everyone is poor. Suddenly all the shop owners are jacking their prices up sky high because they can. No limits. In Weimar they bought bread with billion mark notes. And then there's the issue of growing global competition for resources: US prints trillions and goes shopping for oil. Soon everyone realizes they can't compete without playing the same game. And 2008 gave the green light to uninhibited central bank excuses to print more. It's as simple as water seeking its own level: PMs and commodities are rising simply to keep the absolute or real cost the same as it was before the printing.