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Declassified CIA Document Provides Further Insight On Iran Theater And Escalation Vulnerabilities
With Geoffrey Batt
In a recently declassified report by the CIA, the agency focuses on some of the core observations from the Iraq-Iran War. While still largely redacted and dated (the original memo came out in 1982), it does provide some incremental data that may be of significance should the recently disclosed bomb shipment, be put into use. Some key points: "Iran's most vulnerable choke point is the Kharg Island oil export terminal. The terminal, designed to export more than 6 million b/d, consists of an oil-loading jetty on one side of the island, a sea island off the other side, and a conventional buoy-mooring system. Approximately 25 million barrels of storage capacity are also located on the island... Other important petroleum facilities in Iran include three mainland booster stations that pump crude from the oilfields to Kharg Island. Iran has more than sufficient capacity to enable it to bypass damage to Gurreh and still maintain export levels."The CIA's views on imminent conflict driven market disruptions: "The oil market has reacted relatively calmly to the Iranian invasion
because fighting has inflicted no major new damage to oil facilities or
seriously threatened supply routes. The risk to the market is that the
conflict will escalate to neighboring regions and disrupt the flow of
oil. Surplus capacity, including inventories outside the Gulf, is
insufficient to handle the potential loss of supplies if the conflict
spreads. Excess oil production capacity outside the Gulf now amounts to
about 3 million b/d."
And from the Vulnerability Elsewhere section:
"We are most concerned about the damage that could be inflicted on oil facilities in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Their oil production and export systems are highly concentrated and extremely vulnerable to sabotage or direct military action. Iran already has demonstrated its capability to inflict damage to the facilities. In early October 1981, Iranian F-4 fighters attacked Kuwait's largest gas-oil separation plant at the Raudhatain Oilfield... Kuwait: by far the most critical and vulnerable Kuwaiti petroleum choke points are the offshore and onshore terminal loading facilities at Ahmadi, as well [redacted]... Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are aware of their vulnerability, and have taken countermeasures during the past year to provide early warning and to make it more difficult for Iranian commandos to reach their coastal petroleum facilities. These include an increase in air and naval patrols around potential target areas, the positioning of guards at some offshore oil facilities and tighter controls on access to installations. Despite these measures Tehran could still seriously damage petroleum installations in various Persian Guld countries."
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I read that Kuwait is largely pumped out.
Iraq and Caspian production might be at
risk but are they sufficiently operational
to be a real factor? Hormuz and the Saudi
fields would be the focus with some
sidebar action on Israel. Also expect
some Saddam-like environmental damage,
leaking oil into the ocean. They moved
the low enriched uranium to the surface
so an attack would spread it around.
Whats in the bunker stays in the bunker
once it is sealed.
Watching Bill Maher a couple of weeks ago, he had on Richard Haass, CFR president. He was basically cheerleading for an Iran attack. When these guys talk, people listen. I thought a recent CIA report stated that Iran was years away from weapon-grade uranium ? Oh well, not that facts ever prevented our government from doing anything.
I saw Petreaus (sic?) on Faux News today saying that Iran was at least a year away from developing the nuke.
But it's not what we think so much as what the Israelis think that will drive events.
Bill Maher, funny man patsy. Hate him.
Agree. Also, he strikes me as not nearly as bright as he wants you to think.
Totally dumb. Has a Jon Stewart shrine; too bad he will never be close to such perfection.
"Have you ever seen the back of a 20 dollar bill?!"
Message to Tyler: If you want to know what's happening with Iran find out where the U.S. Carrier Battle Groups are.
I bet if you ask the question, some ZH reader will tell you and then hopefully you'll pass it on to us.
Books
follow the link
they are near the potential conflict site
http://www.gonavy.jp/CVLocation.html
Thank you for the link Cheeky. Seems to me half the fleets in mothballs.
I've been looking but I can only find information from 2008, but your correct that if you follow fleet deployment especially the Carrier Battle Groups it will tell alot about the situation.
Toasting a bunch of mullahs would pretty much sever the head of the beast. And Mr. Mousavi's supporters would have a better chance of shaping the future of Iran.
And by the same way start WWIII? Brilliant analysis!
fucking moron
I disagree. Attacking the Iranians now and you'll successfully eliminate any chance of a revolution. An attack will only serve to strengthen the position of the hardliners against the west. Iran is not a threat. They do what's in their own best interest. The real "rogue" factor here, is Israel. They are lead by a sea of dick Cheney's. Any attack by Israel on Iran will be viewed by all in the middle east as an attack by the US. You will finally push a billion people to war with us.
We will not win this war, short of using the one thing we would like the Iranians never to hold...nukes.
Thankfully a US President is standing up to israel, finally. They bring us nothing but pain in that region.
oh bravo..BRAVO...pure genius. really.
it's always the people in the rear cheering on the guys in the front fight on ain't it?
Appparently you're not aware of the historical past. Seems we tried this once -off-ing Mossedeqh (and installing the Shah) - and That turned out to create the political environment that you're now blasting. Had Mossedegh been left alone that entire region would be more "democratic." But, that's really not what the US has in mind: authoritarian goverments are much better to deal with because they provide easy corruptible points; democracies make it difficult, as the people tend to get in the way (and want stuff like nationalized oil- which is why Mossedegh was elected, on the promise of nationalizing oil- this, of course, sealed his fate).
And, Mr. Carbon Mutant, when the oil's gone, Then what?
Those ignorant of history are doomed to recreate it...
if Israel attacks Iran it will be suicide and hell will be unleash on earth literally here is why: Iran will fire tens of thousands with missiles at Israel , Hezbollah will start firing rockets and Hamas will fire rockets too. Muslims will go ape # in Europe and we could see serious backlash and bloody riots and even revenge attacks. Oil will skyrocket to record highs prob 20 dollars a gallon. Iran will close the port of Hormuz and fire rocket into Saudi Arabian oil fields. In Iraq our troops will suffer a huge Shiite rebellion and take heavy losses not to mention Iran will fire missiles there too. Same thing in Afghanistan. In Pakistan Muslim rage will be so high they will plunge into chaos. Israel will be taking heavy civilian casualties as well as Iran. Not to mention Israel will lose many planes in an attack against iran. In a military perspective if Israel wanted to attack Iran they should have done four years ago, but iran is armed up and is ready for such an attack and will strike back right fully so. Plus the distance is too far for such an attack and they would need a huge force to do it. So if Israel attacks it will be too late and they will receive serious blow back and we do not know how long a war like this will last. it will go one for months maybe even years. An attack is the worse possible solution because innocent Israelis, Palestinians,Lebanese, Iranian,Saudi Arabian,iraqis civilians will die. Many of our troops will be killed. So I hope an attack does not happen, I’m prayin it does not happen but now i think its a 75% chance it will happen. An attack is foolish right now. Why would Israel want to fight Hamas, Hezbollah, Lebanon,Syria, Iran at the same time. Israel will have to invade southern Lebanon then Syria enters the war rolls troops and fires missiles. then a second Gaza offensive. our troops will be fighting the Mahdi army and the entire Shiite population in Iraq. chaos in Pakistan.maybe we could even see its too much chaos and bloodshed to comprehend. it shudders me what would happen. but i hope this does not happen. Israel is not ready for a long war against four adversaries. God helps us if they do this foolish military blunder, the Persians are way smarter then the Arabs and are ready for this. War with Iran would be a far larger disaster. Those with a modicum of familiarity with the military, strategic, and economic equities at stake know that this is right. Israel would have their hands full. Israel should have done it five or six years ago. another thing the lebanese army said if israel goes to war with hizballah they will fight with israel. so to recap he military option has its own risks. First, its success depends on the quality of intelligence on Iran’s nuclear facilities and on the degree of hardening of those targets. Second, it requires successful air attacks. Third, it requires battle damage assessments that tell the attacker whether the strike succeeded. Fourth, it requires follow-on raids to destroy facilities that remain functional. And fifth, attacks must do more than simply set back Iran’s program a few months or even years: If the risk of a nuclear Iran is great enough to justify the risks of war, the outcome must be decisive.
Each point in this process is a potential failure point. Given the multiplicity of these points — which includes others not mentioned — failure may not be an option, but it is certainly possible.
But even if the attacks succeed, the question of what would happen the day after the attacks remains. Iran has its own counters. It has a superbly effective terrorist organization, Hezbollah, at its disposal. It has sufficient influence in Iraq to destabilize that country and force the United States to keep forces in Iraq badly needed elsewhere. And it has the ability to use mines and missiles to attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf shipping lanes for some period — driving global oil prices through the roof while the global economy is struggling to stabilize itself. Iran’s position on its nuclear program is rooted in the awareness that while it might not have assured options in the event of a military strike, it has counters that create complex and unacceptable risks. Iran therefore does not believe the United States will strike or permit Israel to strike, as the consequences would be unacceptable.
You make many good points, imo. The common simplistic analyses bear little resemblence to the complex realities of the actual situation.
Of course, we have a strong American tradition of using war to rally the population in diversions, and what better time than now--as millions of Americans come to recognize that many of our own leaders belong in prison and, lacking a sane and just solution to that, we face extraordinarily bad economic times ahead in any case.
Thinking like the madmen who would appear to now control this country, why not use this as an opportunity to just seize the oil? All of it (in the Middle East, at least.) Given the little problem of an unstable nuclear Pakistan, why not wisely "preemtively" nuke them as well?
Ya gotta think like a nut to really appreciate the possibilities. Not saying it makes sleeping easy, just sayin'.
Zimbabwe ben. and you didnt even mention Russia or China.
Israel correctly views a nuclear armed Iran as an existential threat. You greatly overestimate Iran. They won't even know what hit them before the fighting is over.
Just like Iraq, oil first, humans second.
Israel will be toast in 20mins after an attack on iran, then WW3, gold bitches
Israel will be toast in 20mins after an attack on iran, then WW3, gold bitches
Tyler,
The KGB....er...Gestapo....er......MI5....er.....VEVAK....er.....Stasi.....er....NSA....er....CIA has a similar report on the ZH facilities (and all contributors and posters, registered and anon) outlining the key people, equipment and locations. To assume otherwise is dangerous to your health. Care to submit a FOIA request? I'd like to see what they say about me.
Funny, I was thinking the same thing. About you, I mean. Me, I'm full, red-blooded American through and through.
Have you ever wondered how we would know if they hijacked the feed and substituted a bogus Tyer or ZH altogether.
I'm not paranoid, though.
"Me, I'm full, red-blooded American through and through."
Well, well. The true (red-blooded) colors are coming out now, aren't they?
"Have you ever wondered how we would know if they hijacked the feed and substituted a bogus Tyer or ZH altogether."
And why would this worry me? Should I shut up because big brother might be listening? I assume "they" are doing so all the time. It saves me the bother of worrying about it. Have you ever wondered why Microsoft Windows is on 97% of the computers on this earth? Do you use a hardware firewall, rather than a software solution such as Norton? I do. The traffic requests in and out of my computer are very interesting. I wonder why Norton and other "secure" firewalls allow what is clearly suspicious activity?
Assume you're being watched (because you are) and get on with your life. Either they will take you away or they won't. Do you think anything I say or do or don't do would change that? Do you think they will respect me "rights" if I'm good and shut up? Please!
Guess sometimes I'm too suble. But, believe me, those are just the kind of things I do assume, and it makes getting on with the business of day-to-day life easier. That and being old enough that I can afford to go down--done enough, lived enough, if it comes to that.
Live well, whether you prosper or not!
well said! +1000.
On top of all that, authentication to zh is done in clear text, not encrypted,
and therefore our usernames and passwords are recorded and known!
So CD may not even be CD anymore!
Funny you should say that! CD hasn't seemed like himself to me recently . . . and yet I hadn't considered an obvious explanation. Sometimes even my paranoia fails me.
I'd better have me a quick beer and regroup.
Your slip is showing. I know and understand the techniques. Tag team can be very effective. Nice try though.
We almost had em Bob! Time for a beer and a regroup for me too! No , make that a brandy or two. Lots of info from today I need to forget...
See you tomorrow morning CIA, er , I mean CD
Oh, yeah, we were the fucking tag team! Yeah, see ya at the water cooler, Joe.
I know, I should stop, but this really pisses me off. Another beer, I guess.
I'll try not to . . . no, I've already started, but let me continue . . . think about whether you might be a real spook.
Fuckin a.
interesting response Bob,
I was serious about the clear text auth, not serious about
CD being taken over by somebody else.
(with clear auth, it would be quite easy to assume Cd's identity,
but what would be the purpose on an anon forum?)
You may need a a little adjustment on the meds Bob...
I did understand your post, Hulk. It wasn't hard.
If you view my response in context of CD's remarks, perhaps it will make better sense.
I certainly hope so--doc says my meds are already maxed!
LOL
You can always tell someone's writing style. At least I can, which is how I can tell if an anon is taking different sides on the same thread, or saying one thing on one thread and the opposite on another, or hiding under different registered names. People are very transparent with the words and phrases they use. There are many trolls on ZH who are registered. Sometimes they work together, sometimes apart.
About 3 months ago, there was this troll who used the same phrase all the time, regardless of his argument. It was like a tattoo on his writing hand. The real psyopspeople are much better at it. There are all kinds of styles theey're trained to use. The most devious way is to befriend certain writers. Then they might attack someone else and you would be reluctant to tell your "friend" to back off because he's your "friend". It's a way to turn people against each other.
I've done some reading on the subject. You would be surprised what the CIA/NSA/FBI etc have declassified and released. They either assume most people don't read or they don't care. I think both. Either way, you don't let it bother you. You assume they are here, you assume they will try to disrupt, you ignore it when it happens, if other people get upset, there's nothing you can do about it.
I know just what you mean. I am a writer myself and recently posted on just that topic. Perhaps you should take a look. So I do know what you're talking about, but you are most assuredly, uhmm, inaccurate here.
Man, if this continues it will be very weird, CD.
Ask yourself this: How common a name is Bob? Does it play any particular part in the Fight Club motif? Do you think that username laid unthought of, dormant like a bridesmaid's dress, until I--not Marla--plucked that prize from the cyber breeze?
Just think about it, man. Fuck, compare notes with people who were familiar with me before you . . . well, before you were not.
"Just think about it, man."
It won't work Bob. You can't get in. You're too clumsy. You're an amateur.
Actually, I am no amateur. I am a professional. A psychologist. I'd suggest that before assisting me further in this masochistic drama you've begun, that you check with Tyler and Marla. If they have no memory, being the busy people they are, I suggest that you go back and review my posts at the blogspot site.
I've been "away" during your acendency as a forum major leaguer. I no longer trade, so it was relatively easy being away. That and my impression that you were ably manning a certain sphere of life within this web community that means alot to me.
Please don't unravel my illusions any further. I suspect that my use of the "p" word was a hot button for you. Didn't see that one coming.
How about a reset?
"I've been "away" during your acendency as a forum major leaguer." "I suspect that my use of the "p" word was a hot button for you."
(Bob, you might try spell check.)
Ah, now I understand. Is your "p" word "Penis" envy? What does it matter what I say? Do you wish to pick up where you left off? Go ahead. Do what you wish. If you feel threatened, it's in your head Bob, not mine.
"Please don't unravel my illusions any further."
They're your illusions Bob, not mine. I don't pretend to be anything. I simply write and comment about what strikes my fancy. I have no idea what you think I am nor do I care. But it looks like you feel that I stepped on your territory and you want it back. Take it Dude. Play your game. I will not participate in ego driven cock fights. I will simply talk about things I observe and find interesting.
I would suggest that you check that impulse to launch such fights in that case, CD.
The progression of this latest little skirmish has been obvious.
My autobiographical notes were in response to your onslaught regarding my apparent "claim" to be here. The "p" word I referred to was paranoia, which I initially used tongue-in-cheek, in a manner that was even self-deprecating. Humor, CD (something paranoids suffer an absence of, particularly in relation to themselves.)
Most of your commentary here relates to your spiritual journey of relentless self-examination. While that now strikes me as inconsistent with spending virtually all one's time on the internet telling others about it and urging them to do likewise, I have nonetheless previously found your thoughts very meaningful--in a positive way. You struck me as a man on an admirable journey setting a fine example.
Then you jump me for no substantive reason. Calling me out as a troll.
I'm not gonna further process your problems, bud. I ain't gettin' paid for this bullshit.
I suggest you find a way to demonstrate from here on that you've gotten a grip. At least where I'm concerned. This thread has not done your credibility any good, to say the least.
And feel free to do whatever you like with your penis.
Nice. shutting up is giving up. screw em
No more Anon's.
So when did that happen anyway? I was gone.
WHY did they kick all the anon's off?
I'm just curious.
Yesterday. They were hogging the bandwidth or something. The site wouldn't hardly load.
Let me repeat my commentary on your first post on this total bs, "US is Preparing the Total Destruction of Iran"
This was a polite way of saying you look like a total fool for posting this article; and if you want to keep your reputation, take this article down, because it cannot/does not even provide evidence for its main claim, which is a claim they describe that they found on the internet.
Obviously, since the author of the article has never posted an article on Iran or posted an article on national defense or the US or Iran, I ASSUMED THAT THE SOURCE WOULD BE DEEMED SUSPECT.
Apparently, you don't realize that oil traders need to move oil to a higher level every day. To do so, they take some small circulation paper like "The Scotland Herald," the US equivalent in circulation of "The Bergen Record," and they give some mediocre journalist "the scoop of his lifetime" hoping to push oil higher or unload positions at a critical technical level.
Did it ever occur to you that in the US there are only two reporters (Pincus and Hersh) who the news industry can pay to cover this shit? Does it make sense that they'd be scooped by some backwater paper in Scotland who can't afford to pay writers to cover international affairs? Apparently not. I suggest you study the economics of the media business.
The goal oil traders is to have the "scoop" reprinted in a more widely read source, like for instance, um let me see, ZERO HEDGE?
SO CONGRATULATIONS, YOU'VE NOT ONLY BEEN PAWNED, YOU'VE VOLUNTEERED TO BE PAWNED, AND YOU ARE NOW PRINTING A 10-YEAR OLD ASSESMENT TO SAY,
"REALLY, WE'VE NOT BEEN PAWNED BY OIL TRADERS. Look at this assessment of Iran from just after 9/11."
So what does all this mean you ask, pants down, bent over, in the public square.
Basically, it means oil inventories tomorrow are increasing more than expected.
Little hint in the future, Wednesday is a critical day for oil traders. If it will be a bad number, they like to get out before it, and they'll stroke you with a good story in order to do so.
But seriously, I thank you at 10:30AM tomorrow. You are a not only a media slut to this bs, but a media slut who truly belives that they are not a slut, and who obviously is.
THAT'S THE BEST KIND for traders!!
If you want to be more than a media slut, kindly learn from this experience.
Nothing like Middle East politics to get people fired up.
A couple points...
1. The Obama Administration is borderline anti-semite. Look at his and his team's background, they don't try to hide it. They threw Israel under the bus a year ago. They are desperate to get out of Iraq to placate the fringe left base. They won't do anything to muck up the exit strategy.
2. The Obama Administration has already decided to let Iran have nukes. They will threaten sanctions, and even implement some feckless ones. Nothing short of a major aerial bombardment will keep Iran from getting the bomb at this point. Team Obama doesn't have the balls for it. They have the weapon design - bought from Pakistan's Dr. Khan. It's just a matter of time to process enough uranium hexaflorine and sort out the issues with processing U235 above 20%.
3. Israel can't launch an attack. They don't have the air assets to hit all the sites they would need to make the attack effective. Plus they would need permission from the US air foce to fly over Iraq. They already asked a couple times, when Bush was in office and the answer was no. Considering Team Obama's animosity to Israel, they probably stopped asking. Also, Iran will soon deploy late model Russian SAM systems that will greatly complicate any attack. What Israel is doing is upgrading it's nuclear tipped MRBS and deploying nuclear tipped cruise missiles on its submarines.
Actually, Israel has permission to fly over Saudi Arabia. Enemy of my enemy, and all that.
Unless Rahm Emmanuel is no longer Chief of Staff, I'm inclined to disagree strongly with you.
http://www.watan.com/en/the-news/655-saudi-arabia-said-to-make-available-its-airspace-for-israeli-fighter-jets-.html
-- sorry, I initially thought your post was a reply to mine. I now am lining up the margins a little better, and see that we're replying to the same post. Nevertheless, I'll leave this link up under the assumption that it's of some interest.
Dumshit here. How does this square with the large amount of jews in the administration or the many dual citizenship holders.
I am not buying the view of anti israel admin.
Will Jewish-Americans continue to vote democrat in 2010 and 2012???
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/mar/17/tehran-aiding-al-qaeda-links-petraeus-says/
This story talks about how Iran is aiding and abedding Al Qaeda terrorists. Sound familiar to something we were hearing in 2002? This is confirmation, IMO, that we are gonna rain some hell on Iran. This is the start of building the case. Iran is aiding terrorists. Iran has a nuke. Put them together, turn it all about, and we get Shock and Awe: Part Deux.
here is an excerpt of a Israeli university war gaming an Israeli strike against Iran. Prof. Moshe Vered considered under what conditions the two nations might enter a war, how long it might last and how it might end. The results were alarming even to the Israeli intelligence community. Here is how Barnea summarizes the research
Iran is the only takeable transit route for E Caspian gas to Europe. That's all you need to know.
The trans-caspian pipeline was abandoned because it couldn't be defended from the Iranians. All other routes transit either Russian or Iranian territory. Do the math.
Israel is not going to attack...if anyone does it, it will be the United States. Either the gas is going to China or Europe will have to pay a steep price for it to go through Russia.
This stuff is as simple as bronze age warfare. Control the strategic points. Look at our base distribution and naval posture if you have any questions.
Why do you guys think we give a fuck about a shithole like Georgia? Once you overlay gas pipeline routes onto the region, you can see what the geographic problem is here.
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