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Deep Thoughts From Bob Janjuah - January 2010
First, a 'quote' - see a copy of a tremendous quote from history sent to me by a client + my reply.....
"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be filled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome be bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance."
Cicero - 55 BC......Happy New Year!
Reply:
Brilliant....and u know how Rome got away with it for so long - they secretly reduced the silver content in the coins (aka DEBASED) more and more - until they were worthless....and then the Empire imploded, ushering in the Dark ages...
And now, the news...
The travel schedule in the last 2 mths of 2009 was even more brutal than I had thgt it would be, so apologies for not writing sooner. Kevin put a note out at the end of Dec, which you should all read. I want to now present my thgts for the year ahead. In essence, its a flip of last yr when we felt that the FEAR in early 2009 would give way to GREED over most of the rest of 2009. Clearly the GREED leg has been stronger and longer than I thgt it would be. Why? Well I clearly underestimated the ability & willingness of the Public Sector, notably in the UK, US, parts of periph Europe and Japan, to take huge risks with their sovereign balance sheets, AND IMPORTANTLY, I over-estimated the ability & willingness of the Financial Sector/Market to see things for what they are (Another Debt Fuelled Bubble/Ponzi). With that said I think 2010 will see MORE GREED & JOY in the early part of the yr (Q1), which will give way to FEAR over most of 2010 as the chickens come home to roost for the Debt Binge currently being undertaken by some critically important sovereigns.
Of course, not all sovereigns have bad and/or fast deteriorating balance sheets (as a result of highly risky fiscal and monetary paths). Core Europe, much of NJA, Oz, Norway, Brazil all spring to mind. I think that bonds, currencies, credit and equities in such parts of the world will (a) outperform their peer grp equivalent asset classes in the bad and/or fast deteriorating sovereign balance sheet zones, but (B) will do merely OK on an absolute basis. Elsewhere I think hard assets, most obviously to me GOLD and even CRUDE, will do EXTREMELY well. Over the belly of 2010 I expect to CRUDE up at $100 and Gold up at $1500. I like commodities, anything which Bernanke and King can't print at the press of a button.
By end 2010 we may finally see huge buying oppos in things like USTs and GILTs, as well as - eventually - Risky Assets. OVERALL, it all comes down to the debate between VOLUNTARY AUSTERITY (the core Eurozone route, which means deflation and wage declines, but which means bond yields and the currency do not meltdown/debase) vs INVOLUNTARY AUSTERITY (which is the route currently being followed by the fiscal and monetary authorities in the US, UK, parts of periph Europe and Japan - unsustainable debt paths, no (as yet) credible exit policy, monetisation and debasement). In the IA world, our policymakers will keep taking risks until they break the back of the camel (the market), at which point bond yields and currencies go into a tailspin, causing massive pain in these domestic economies and which ultimately will then mean a much longer period of forced austerity (higher taxes, higher savings, etc etc). A redux of the 70s and early 80s - the only problems being that the debt burdens and deficits are far far higher now, AND of course there seem to be no equivalents of Volcker, Reagan or Thatcher in sight (Andy Chaytor has happily volunteered himself, and I am happy to throw my name into the hat too, in case anyone is listening).
FINALLY, to all you perma bulls out there, and I am sure you know this, but its worth repeating - in Real AND Nominal terms CASH outperformed equities to a very significant degree over the last decade. I rkn I'll be saying something very similar in 5 yrs time (the next mega equity bull mrkt, where the Dow will go from 10k to 100k, is scheduled to start in the second half of this new decade and will last 15/20yrs....look at the historic chrts wrapped around 100 Dow, 1000 Dow and now 10,000 Dow - (:-o)
Tactical - into end Q1
The 1120 resistance in S&P is now properly broken so the next leg shud be higher. Broadly +ve risk, looking for 1225 S&P, tighter credit, flat-weakish bonds (4% 10yr USTs), USD better (sub-1.40 vs EURO), Gold in the 1k/1.1k zone......I think this is the tail end of the bear mrkt rally AND when will see the tail end of the improving data & earnings releases/improving yoy data & earnings comps. In this 'bull' phase 1120 is support on S&P, so any break below this for 3/4 consec days signals the bearish turn (see below).
However, as late Q1 unfolds and into Q2, the reality of the dire economic situation will become clear (no sustained private sector demand) and at that point all the noises from policymakers re Exit Policies and Fiscal Rectitude will be seen by the market as - well - just noise. Policymaker credibility will crater as they are then forced to reverse their Exit/Rectitude talk and (I fear) instead end up taking EVEN MORE monetary and (in particular) fiscal policy risks. I am focused here on the UK, US and Japan.
(Tell Me Why I Don't Like Mondays >>> One of my sources sent me this: As part of the Tactical view, did you know that since the March 09 lows, we have had 44 Mondays (or Tuesdays in the case of a US holiday on the Monday), of which 31 (over 70%!) have been UP days....This contrasts with all up days since the March 09 low of 58%.....Further, of all the 'USD' gains in the Dow since the March 09 low, over 80% have been seen on just Mondays!!! I find this staggering (and suspicious) - 80% of all the money gains in the Dow since the March lows have been seen in JUST 31 trading days......make of this what you will, but now that its so obvious I doubt this 'correlation' will persist.)
Strategic - 12mths/12mths+
The belly of 2010 (Q2, Q3) is when I expect to see the play out of the next phase of FEAR, driven by the issues discussed above. The key drivers will be fear and panic around unsustainable debt paths vs ongoing Private Sector deleveraging & a lack of sustainable final demand ex-Govt largesse, the collapse in policymaker credibility, ratings events, and OVERALL a significant spike HIGHER in bond yields in the UK, US and Japan - think 6%/6%+ 10yr yields in the UK and maybe even US. This will likely be accompanied by severe weakness in the currencies of these nations (USD 1.80 vs EURO, GBP sub-parity vs EURO) as well as global FEAR and a major sell-off in the credit and equity mrkts. Q2/Q3 2010 is when we will see the S&P down in the low 800s or lower, Gold at $1500, Crude at $100, the EURO XO Index up at 700/700+. We will see BUNDS massively outperform Gilts and USTs. In the 10yr, I expect the Bund/UST spread to be at least 100bps - ie, 10yr USTs to yield 100bps+ more than 10yr Bunds. (REMEMBER: None of this has anything to do with actual near term CPI-style inflation - assuming of course YOU still believe the data or believe that the official data tells even a half of the whole story - but rather everything to do with rapidly deteriorating sovereign credit risk/debasement/monetisation/shattered & zero policymaker credibility all being priced into bond yields).
In Q2/Q3 2010 the globe will recognise that the VOLUNTARY AUSTERITY and HARD MONEY/Tight Fiscal policies of the core EUROZONE are the WINNER. The icing on the cake will be SPAIN winning the World Cup with the boy Fernando scoring the winning goal in the final. I am NOT saying that the EUROZONE, esp. the periph, is going to have a party whilst we in the UK US and Japan go thru our collective nervous breakdowns. Times will be tuff for many yrs, ESP. in the periph of Europe. BUT the bond and currency mrkts of this zone, as well as places like Brazil, NJA, Oz and Norway will all (ultimately) massively outperform and allow these nations and the peoples of these nations to get thru their coming (chosen) AUSTERITY in a far better way then in the UK US and JAPAN, where AUSTERITY will be forced, and where its impact will be more painful and last longer.
There IS a way of avoiding PERDITION in the UK US and JAPAN. Go forth and CHOOSE to undertake VOLUNTARY AUSTERITY (rather then being forced into it) before its too late - this means NOW/in the next few months!!! Do Away with the shocking debasement being undertaken by our central bankers, give the power to the Volcker-ites, and put in place CREDIBLE, DETAILED and SUSTAINABLE fiscal policies. This mean risking resentment from huge swathes of the populous who have in the UK and US gotten used to public sector largesse. This means doing what's right for the long term health of our countries as opposed to doing what's popular. This means taking risks with unemployment and growth in the short term in order to create the conditions for a long term boom. We have all seen this before. As mentioned earlier, think late 70/early 80s, think Volcker, Thatcher and Reagan. The Great Times we all enjoyed over the 80s and 90s were because the RIGHT but VERY TUFF decisions were taken by these folks in the late 70s/early 80s. NOT because of anything Greenspan or Bernanke have done (in fact, these guys have done far far more harm than any good).
Those who believe we can avoid having to make such tuff decisions are likely the same people who have been long and/or cheerleading equities for 10yrs, and who believe that booms/busts are a thing of the past because we think we can print/borrow our way out of REALITY. These are likely the same folks who said that there was no US housing bubble and that US house prices would never fall nationwide on average, and who were likely still saying this deep into 2007 even though the game was already up. These are also likely the same folks who insisted that Sub-Prime was a small $20bn-odd problem which would not impact either the US or Global economy. These are also likely the same people who wish to revise history and blame it all on Lehman, when in truth the rot had set in well before Lehman. And these are likely the same people who have the hopeless view that the housing/credit bubble had nothing to do with the FED keeping rates way way too low for way way too long post the bursting bubble of 01/02. And YES, that includes Bernanke, who is of course taking the lead in setting up the current Bubble/Ponzi. It is he who most worries me, as his talk of EXIT really, IMHO, reminds me of the emperor without any clothes, and it is he who seems to have learnt the least lessons from the events of the last few years. The INEVITABLE reality however is that AUSTERITY is coming, whether we like it or not - so why not make the choice to be IN CONTROL rather be dragged kicking, screaming and with our economies in pieces??
There is a CRITICAL point here that needs clarity and stressing. IF you believe that we have only gone thru a normal little cyclical blip, which will have little/no lasting impacting, then in such cases normal conventional policy - cheap money, fiscal pump-priming - WILL work. HOWEVER, if you agree with Kevin and I, that we (the UK, US, Japan, parts of Europe) are going thru a much more secular hit to our way of living, that this is a balance sheet recession, and that there will be long lasting impacts/influences/policy changes etc, then such conventional policy will FAIL. In such 'permanent' hits, conventional policy initially helps a little, merely in smoothing off the absolute collapse, but the REAL SOLUTION is a deep rooted restructuring of our economies (UK, US etc) whereby real estate, finance and consumption STOP being the drivers of grwth, and where new industries/businesses/ideas become the next drivers of grwth. THIS PROCESS TAKES YEARS, and the more that governments interfere with policy over-reach, the LONGER this process takes. This is the lesson of history. In this context, the 'debate' about when to exit from recklessly easy monetary and fiscal policy is UTTERLY BOGUS. Why? Because there is NO WAY that the governments of the US, UK, Japan or periph Europe can keep running such non credible and unsustainable policies for anywhere near long enuff (3/5yrs) to 'succeed' and, even if they could, they will likely fail anyway as the private sectors in such economies will likely act to offset policymaker recklessness by saving more, in anticipation of higher tax burdens etc (Japan already there). As such, when policymakers claim the debate is between killing grwth now thru immediate and credible exit/fiscal tightening, vs. delayed exit/fiscal tightening to keep (fake) 'grwth' going, they are barking up the wrong tree completely by assuming that this is a cyclical blip as opposed to a much more secular shift. The REAL debate, as far as I am concerned, is between exit/fiscal tightening on a pre-emptive VOLUNTARY basis, vs. the decision to destroy any semblance of policymaker credibility and to keep running reckless policy until this bubble blows-up, thereby doing far more and far more permanent damage to our economies, and which ultimately will result in a far worse 2nd balance sheet recession/depression. This is the real choice. The grwth hit is coming ANYWAY.
The only decision is 'do we take a painful hit to grwth now but preserve the credibility of our policymakers and our sovereign balance sheet, and thereby allow our private sector to complete its period of balance sheet repair before it sparks off the next leg of multiyr (REAL) grwth, or do we take a far bigger hit to grwth in the next 6-ish mths AND blow up policymaker credibility and our sovereign balance sheets, which will likely take YEARS to recover from, if ever? (Again, think abt Japan post-89 - the UK and US are repeating these mistakes!)' At some point we will collectively realise, like we did in the late 70s/early 80s, that the US and UK cannot operate successfully as command economies where the allocation of capital is done by politicians and where the public sector - a hugely inefficient and unproductive universe - grows at the expense of the private sector. The longer we wait for this reality to be accepted, the deeper the hole and the worse it will get before we flip the other way. HOPEFULLY, the misery that was the 1970s is ingrained enuff in peoples minds that we do not have to wait yrs (as opposed to mths) before we 'get this'. Lets see. In this context, the election cycles in the UK and US are a big issue/potential trigger. Sadly I have little faith in the policymakers of the UK and US, hence why I see INVOLUNTARY AUSTERITY as the most likely path for the UK and US.
Asset Allocation - 12mths/12mths+
(My assumption is that our policymakers will fail us and we will end up with FORCED AUSTERITY - this drives my thinking below. If I am proven wrong and we see VOLUNTARY AUSTERITY adopted in time in the UK US and JAPAN, then all bets are off and I'd be a big UK/US/JAPAN long term bond bull, later followed by being a credit bull and then, eventually, even an equity bull. I'd also, in the case of VA, be a huge seller of Gold/Crude...)
Intra Asset Class (Govvies, Credit, Equities, Fx)...Generally, whatever the asset class, OW Strong and Improving B/Sheets, UW Weak and Weakening B/Sheets, and OW High-Quality ALPHA over Over-Hyped BETA...in Govvies OW Bunds over Gilts and/or USTs....in Credit OW high quality global big caps over HY....in Equities OW 'Strong Balance Sheet & Sound Policy' EM, core EUROZONE and high quality global big caps, over cyclicals, small caps, levered balance sheets and over domestic demand driven UK, US and Japanese companies.....in FX OW NJA, NOK & OZ over both GBP & USD, and OW EURO over USD/GBP. And I would be Very OW Commodities (Gold and Crude).
Inter Asset Class...OW Commodities (Gold, Crude) & High Quality Credit over Equities & Bonds. OW strong balance sheet/sound policy EM over the 'developed' world's debasers.
A Word on China
At the risk of oversimplifying: 1) Chinese domestic demand as the driver of global grwth is pie-in-the-sky thinking - just ask any Chinese policy official! Thus the bullish global grwth story HAS to, for the next few yrs, rely on the return of the US/UK consumer and US/UK final demand - which to me is an equally hopeless expectation; 2) China has a strong balance sheet at the sovereign and private sector level - the banks may be an issue but the govt has huge ability to recapitalise the Chinese banking system if/when needed for at least the 3/5yrs ahead; 3) The real debate in China is simple - creating 20m+ jobs a yr (in manufacturing primarily) Vs domestic asset bubbles. I expect tighter policy in China this yr to cool asset speculation, esp. stks and property, but I also expect target help for increases in the manufacturing base/MORE global capacity, irrespective of the global demand picture. This to me smells of huge inventory build-up in China. Thus the hopes for inventory rebuild as a driver of US UK Japan grwth are I think seriously mistaken. And further, we will see powerful Goods & Services DEFLATION this yr as a result of China's actions playing in tandem with our own problem, that of huge DEBT DEFLATIONARY forces in the so-called developed world. China really cant help us much this yr (why should they?), but can seriously hurt us if protectionism rears its ugly head.
In Summary
Overall the critical driver of 'everything' will be bond yields which in turn will be driven by the outlook for/choices made re the inevitable AUSTERITY. As mentioned, my thinking is all based on the assumption that the 'wrong' choices will be made in the UK US and Japan. If this proves to be an incorrect assumption, all bets are off - this will be a NICE problem to have, notwithstanding the shrt-term pain that comes with the making of such choices.
I want to finish off with some probabilities/risky asset return guides, using the S&P as my benchmark - you all will/can of course do this for yourselves with your own inputs/assumptions.For me, the probability of IA is 60%, and in this scenario A I expect the S&P to drop 30% from the Jan 1 open. So this means an expected weighted 'return' of -18%. Scenario B is the VA path in the UK US and Japan, where I place a 10% probability and where I think the S&P will close the yr +/-2% or so (long term/multi-yr this is the most bullish scenario for me btw). So this means an expected YoY 'return' pretty much at 0% - flat. The other Scenario, C, is that I am talking utter rubbish, and that instead we get Nominal grwth in the UK US at 5%/5%+, and 2%/3% Nominal grwth in Japan. If we get strong nominal grwth in these bad balance sheet/bad policy sovereigns, the S&P (as a guide) can I think rally at best 10% this yr. I assign a 30% probability to Scenario C. Thus the expected weighted 'return' of C is only +3%. Why only +3% you may ask? Well simply because Scenario C is already largely priced in in terms of expected profit grwth, AND because under this scenario rates and bond yields will all go higher, curbing valuations too.
Of course the outcomes, the probabilities, the assumptions etc are all courtesy of that strange place known as Bob's World. And I know that as far as the market is concerned Bob's World has over the last few mths gone from being the hottest thing since the iPhone to something akin to a piece of old toast. But if I am right this yr and we get something like Scenario A rather than B or C, then EXTREME CAUTION around Gilts, USTs, JGBs, & global risky assets beyond Q1, will be warranted. And even if Scenario B or C play out, the weighted expected returns don't look that compelling at all.
OR, in other words, enjoy the next qtr, but thereafter be very very careful, and be very very selective abt where you place your bets. 2010 is about NOT losing money and will see the triumph of ALPHA over BETA. The key drivers will be the failure of grwth hopes, NOT regular CPI inflation.The grwth failure will I fear lead to MORE debasement policies, which will drive bond yields in the UK US and Japan far higher as policymakers lose credibility. Together, bond yields spiking higher for 'bad' (credit risk) reasons (as opposed to 'good' reasons such as grwth closing output gaps) + the grwth failure will mean equities are exposed as significantly overvalued and ripe for a material selloff.
My FINAL cmmt (honestly!) - the issue of timing. Many folks will disagree with me totally abt my outlook. But many more will I think agree in principal BUT disagree abt timing. I have heard that old line (of versions of it), that the mrkt can stay irrational longer then I can stay solvent, many times already this yr. I was clearly wrong on timing towards the last few mths of last yr, and it would be foolish of me to pretend I KNOW something you don't. To be honest if I had the crystal ball on timing, and this says nothing abt my desire to help RBS and all of you succeed, but I doubt if I'd be doing what I do now - I suspect I might be on an enormous yacht somewhere off the coast of Barbados. As such, I would be extremely happy to get feedback on what YOU think, both in terms of the overall view, but esp. in terms of timing/triggers. YOU can help me do my job better, which hopefully in turn means I can serve you all better.
Cheers, Bob
Bob Janjuah
RBS Global Banking & Markets
Office: +44 20 7085 3249
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i heart bob janjuah. always look forward to his next missive.
Too bad he works for RBS. They are a part of the banking association that is actively standing in the way of the FOIA request by Bloomberg.
"The Fed is joined in its bid to overturn Preska’s order by the Clearing House Association LLC, an industry-owned group in New York that processes payments between banks. The group assailed the judge’s decision for what it said were legal errors, such as applying the wrong standard in weighing the exception to FOIA.
The group includes ABN Amro Bank NV, a unit of Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, Bank of America Corp., The Bank of New York Mellon Corp., Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Holdings Plc, JPMorgan Chase & Co., US Bancorp and Wells Fargo & Co."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4PnUdySIink
You are right. As you know, all large banks are bad. ZH should not be supporting any of them by highlighting the comments of "them."
At no point was I pushing against Zero Hedge. I was simply highlighting that perhaps Bob should be perhaps investing some of his energy to the truth. That is all.
I can point out a good handful of banks that are bad, RBS seems to fit into that mold by shielding the truth. That is all.
So you fine with ZH printing / supporting printing those who do not "invest their energy in the truth??" Ok, got it. Thanks.
ZH finds posting GS and other Fedspeak propaganda outlet "commentary", such as RBS, and then skewering it with common sense, to be comedy. Comme moi.
Which is why M$M just bleats, "the banks", as opposed to branding into the public's conscience the names of the true destroyers. The Press, as it is known in the 1st Amendment, and it's right, should be rewarded for specificity, not generality.
Voluntary Austerity measures from DC will never happen under this administration.
you imply that those measures have happened in the past, or would happen under any current opposition to this administration - which is obviously false.
Never say never, Wynn... nevermind... never under this Administration seems like a pretty safe bet. It appears that between the former-- and our two-headed beast called the Treserve-- that there has been way too much invested in bailouts and cover-ups to turn around now.
I guess the relevant question is who makes the next "all-in" move towards driving the US sovereign in even deeper kim-che? Do impale ourselves though unwise fiscal or monetary policy? It seems like we have a willing nut-job at the Federal Reserve who is willing drive this baby right off a cliff, if necessary.
If we head down the involuntary austerity path, I do believe that Bob Janjuah will be off the mark again (estimating down equity returns) in terms of timing. Why? Because the markets (with the help of a little more manipulation) will buy into the Hope-- and expected artificial growth-- that stimulus brings.
I also disagree on the expected effects of Voluntary Austerity-- i.e., equity returns are likely to be much lowe than the predicted +/- 2%-3%. Why? Because under a voluntary move, asset prices will accurately reflect its underlying fundamentals-- which have not recovered much from the hole that's already been dug. Right now, the market is being propped up by forces that want investors to own risky assets-- and it's simply overvalued on future prospects (espically the high-beta, high-levered risky assets).
We will work though these issues more quickly than under involuntary austerity, as Janjuah asserts, but the process of asset clearing will still take more time than most expect (i.e., more than a year). The reason? We will still see private sector deleveraging, even if public sector leveraging comes to an abrupt halt.
Pickled PIIGS Feat
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/worry-over-us-and-pii...
Right-o Wynn, Baron, Asset. Voluntary austerity never going to happen.
Nice article and observations Mr. Janjuah. No way out of the box.
Ya mean the kink of "Voluntary Austerity"
practiced by the bailed-out banker class?
But what ever he said was wrong!
I can be the Oracle from Delphi too......
:-(
The way things are going, it is becoming hopeless. We need to remember Harry Truman's words: When you're being beaten over the head, it would be useful to look up and see who's doing the beating.
In America's case it is the super rich and their corporations. They have exported our jobs, imported cheap labor through porous borders to drive down wages, given themselves massive tax cuts. They've siphoned off enough taxes through wars, bank bailouts, and setting up healthcare reform that benefits only insurance companies. They've created enough diversions and distractions to divide the country and make it difficult to rally against their destructive actions.
Folks, we are not the problem. We are sheep being led to slaughter and financial collapse by the rich and powerful. It is not a Democrat vs Republican issue. Both parties are largely owned and operated by contributions from the rich and powerful. BTW, their USSC is going to probably insure that the deck remains stacked by an expected decision by removing limits on political contributions for corporations and all other organizations.
We need to look up and see who is beating us, and then join forces to take back our country. It's the only way we survive.
Begging to differ, we are being beaten over the head not by your strawmen, the rich and the corporations, but rather by Obama's total idiocy and ignorance about money and economics, by the bankster shill in residence, Geithner, and by the ongoing Bernanke disaster. As long as the foundation for the non-recovery is fraud and lies, nothing will meaningfully heal in the economy.
Begging to differ, too, but Obama is the Trojan Horse for the same bankers, financial elite, and wealth that has control. Nothing has changed since Bush except the packaging. There is only one party, the Demopublicans, the lackeys of those powers, and yet you and most republicans I know have focused upon Obama as the alpha and omega of all thats wrong, refusing to see, or pehaps really not seeing, the total sham. So, go ahead hate Obama just like they expect... hey, I think it was one of the most brilliant political moves of the last century... his handlers deserve the Nobel Prize for astuteness. Well, at least he is not the intellectual eyesore that Bush was and has gained the US a slight increasse in international esteem which, however, is fading fast. Yes, Obama the Trojan Horse, and, yes, buy your trojans because we are being screwed
without interruption and, yes, they will do something to appropriate the pension funds, pehaps a mere ten percent being forced into long terms bonds. And I would bet it is accomplished through some emergency move, just as money mareket fund withdrawals may be halted on behalf of the public good.
Oba
Do not worry. Your man Obama has it all under control.
Would suggest that since these corporations are making undue sums and over-charging for their services, that you compete head-on with them and under-cut their slothful ways. It is the only logical response from someonw so smart and so upset with corporate America -- put them out of business via competiton (vs government fiat).
While it is not a Republican / Democrat issue, it is primarily a government issue.
Yeah, that's a real do-able task.
Put all of big pharma, all of big oil,
not to mention all of TBTF finance out of business via 'competition'.
Who's got the capital?
Who can manipulate the purpose written rules to permit effective competition?
Once you start manipulating the rules, YOU are in the game.
You've sold out.
Do you honestly think there is any way to 'compete'?
WAKE UP
IT'S ALL A SHAM.
Surely you can "manipulate" better then all those corporations. Start small (you will be more flexible) and then grow to take over those companies. You need a long term view. Go ahead. And you should be able to make lots of money as you go (since those corpoarations make such obscene profits). Get in the sham and play along for awhile and show them.
30 years experience tells me....
That I mostly agree with you....and that we are thinking alike in many ways....which in itself bothers me a little....
INEVITABLE AUSTERITY
NO REAL ALTERNATIVE CURRENCY OPTIONS
IT IS A TRADER'S WORLD ONLY
THE GOVTS. INSISTANCE OF STACKING IN FURTHER FUTURE COSTS
IN THE FORM OF "NON-SUSTAINABLE PROGRAM PAYMENTS"....
THESES ARE COSTS....NOT ASSETS....
PERHAPS NOT SO EXTRAORDINARY EVENTS...IE ENERGY COST POPS....IE IRAN/ISRAEL
THE LONG BELL RANG MONTHS AGO WHEN FRRE MONEY WAS STARTING TO BE SERVED TO THE BANKS....WHICH WILL END....
UPWARD SURPRISE ? US TAX STRUCTURE CHANGE....IE REPLACEMENT OF BOTH THE CORP./INDIVIDUAL TAXES WITH A 15% CONSUMPTION TAX ONLY....NOT GOING TO HAPPEN....BUT WOULD CHANGE THE GAME....
REVAMPING DEFRAGMENTING MAKING MORE SEAMLESS WORLDWIDE LOWER COST RETAIL DIRECT ACCESS EXCHANGES....WHILE MAKING INFORMATION AVAILABLE IN A WIKI STYLE FACT BASED FORMAT REPLACING THE RATING AGENCY SYSTEM.....COULD SET THE STAGE FOR MASSIVE STACKS OF INCREASED ASSET SECURITIES VALUATIONS....WHICH WOULD FILL PART OF THE VALUATION LOSS BLACK HOLE LEFT BY REAL ESTATE VALUATIONS....ALSO MAKING THIS VENUE TAX FREE....LONG LONG TERM IF AT ALL....BUT COULD BE A SOLUTION TO VALUATIONS REPLACEMENT AND BETTER WEALTH DISTRIBUTION.....
Just some thoughts....
US defaults on intra gov debt then takes over 401K complex to fund the differential. External debt is preserved to sustain the funding mechanism, but the hoped for preservation of dollar funding fades
US decides circa clinton and loral to set up a technology "bank" as partial settlement with GS/MS doing the valuation on said settlements
GDP is revised down 4-5 trillion real
US has a De Gualle moment after settling debt and moves to erect trade barriers in a final cast off of the hollow globalization mantra
The internal debt is owned by the people. The better option from a catastrophic type of action would be for the Government to repudiate our own internal debt and start over, rather than pay for it.
External debt is harder to deal with if you want to still issue bonds. The quick solution would be to default on the external debt. But, this is also a catastrophic scenario.
IMHO taking private 401(k) money to pay for external debt, is not a viable option.
The destruction of the 401(k), in terms of real value, is happening now. Many, my self included, are watching what the FED does with regards to additional QE programs. If irresponsible fiscal policy forces the FED to once again buy our own debt, perhaps $1T, you will see a massive outflow of capital from the US. The policy makers made their bets, and if they don't pay off, the trust is gone.
Mark Beck
Look, forget about the govt taking over the 401K's. It would be political suicide for whatever party in power did it. The only way the government is going to take over 401K's is if they first declare martial law, and then we've got bigger problems to worry about.
Nothing will change until the people decide collectively to STOP doing any kind of business with the current banking cartels.
We need to remember Harry Truman's words: When you're being beaten over the head, it would be useful to look up and see who's doing the beating.
In America's case it is the super rich and their corporations. They have exported our jobs, imported cheap labor through porous borders to drive down wages, given themselves massive tax cuts. They've siphoned off enough taxes through wars, bank bailouts, and setting up healthcare reform that benefits only insurance companies. They've created enough diversions and distractions to divide the country and make it difficult to rally against their destructive actions.
Folks, we are not the problem. We are sheep being led to slaughter and financial collapse by the rich and powerful. It is not a Democrat vs Republican issue. Both parties are largely owned and operated by contributions from the rich and powerful. BTW, their USSC is going to probably insure that the deck remains stacked by an expected decision by removing limits on political contributions for corporations and all other organizations.
We need to look up and see who is beating us, and then join forces to take back our country. It's the only way we survive.
Let's go one beyond the banks. Everyone should look at every dollar they spend and decide it they're comfortable with who is receiving that dollar. There are very few goods and services we actually need. Most of what we pay for each month didn't exist one hundred years ago. I'm not saying that we shouldn't buy anything, but rather merely do a value test before buying. If we don't like who the money is going to, we don't have to give it to them.
Only if we start first with government (taxes) - which are many folks' largest annual expenditure -- well for the 50% of the people who pay any income taxes.
Without that expense, won't really need to worry about any other expense. Excellent idea.
"Folks, we are not the problem."
Precisely what everyone thinks and wants to think. All of you who borrowed too much, you are not the problem. All of you who can not compete in the labor market (in the US, much less the world), you are not the problem. All of you who over-consumed (way beyond your means)for decades, you are not the problem. All of you who never prepared for bad things to happen (via saving, buying insurance, etc), it is not your problem. All of you who did not work your tail off to get an education, you are not the problem. Etc....
And anyone who makes money off of you, well, is evil (because they "siphon" your money and create "distractions" from our benevolent and all sufficient government). And the more they make, the more evil they are.
NICE!!
Where's the jerk off (I mean Master Bates)?
I was looking out to the sea,
blue waters, white clouds,
and then I heard someone yell:
"There she blows!"
The whale came at me from behind me.
This is a self-serving misquotation of Cicero - like much of what passes for wisdom on blogs. Check your facts
CALIGULA !!!
This is a self-serving misquotation of Cicero - like much of what passes for wisdom on blogs. Check your facts
The quote from Cicero is most likely a fake, by the way. Highly unlikely that he actually said it and if anybody can find an authentic reference, please post it. The best I can find that debunks it is here: http://message.snopes.com/showthread.php?t=28532
Definitely fake.
http://books.google.com/books?id=NCOEYJ0q-DUC&pg=PA14&lpg=PA14&dq=The+bu...
The quote is totally out of context.
Romans worried about the state of treasury coffers? I cant remembered which roman leader spent the entire result of a fiscal year on incense to celebrate the death of an important man. Fuzzy reference, I know but I doubt they were that concerned about the treasury if one of them spent the entire result of one fiscal year on incense.
Hard work: hard work was considered as a form of torture. Thus reserved to slaves.
Balancing the budget: ummmmm, was the double entry balance sheet invented in 55 BC? I always read that this was invented during the middle ages and before that, people did not put front to front incomes and expenditures.
Etc...
The quote seems so filled with modern concepts/views it would be a deep discovery to find it is real.
The above is taken from internet rumor started in 2008.
The actual quote "The arrogance of officialdom, should
be tempered and controlled and assistance to foreign
lands should be curtailed lest Rome fall."
I think hard assets, most obviously to me GOLD and even CRUDE, will do EXTREMELY well<<<<<
there you go bates. read it and weep.....
ha ha ha
haven't time to read piece but deliberately misspelling morsel in your intro? Your humor is too obtuse for me.
Hopefully the gentleman that wrote the piece at least did spell check...
It should be kept in mind that Rome carried on quite successfully for another 400 years after Cicero's comments 55 BC. In fact, it did not reach ascendency for another 200 years after Cicero's thoughts.
Maybe the fact Cicero's comments seem so current is indication the USA is approaching the "ascendency phase" versus any decline.
Ascendency!!!
Ascendency into what? - BANKRUPTCY!
Keep in mind, Bob, that Cicero was one of the last of the Republicans and he resisted Caesar's usurpation of the Republic and imposition of imperial tyranny. It was the Empire that debased the currency.
Which makes the comparison that much more apt. The socialist tyrannies of today's Western countries (unfortunately now including the USA) are almost as irresponsible and immoral as the most depraved Roman emperors.
Quote looks like it was taken out of Edward Gibbon's - The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. I doubt it was from Cicero.
The years we now concede,
those lusts for lesser greeds;
Comforts for the old to own
while burns the youth of Rome...
A lot of sound & fury, signifying nothing. There's only one thing we need to know: when will the money printing end? Actually, an even more critical point in time is that first incipient movement which eventually concludes with termination of QE.
What is the tell? IMHO, it's the election taking place today in NE. Forget health care. While certainty a significant issue, the much bigger element is the budding resistance to illegal Treserve actions. This will only grow and likely become the one overriding issue in Nov '10.
The antics of the last 9 mos have been like one, long interminable intermission. Until March '09, the market was doing its thang engaging in price discovery, risk discounting, etc. And then the Treserv had to get involved. Yawn. Wake me when it's over.
We have a rendezvous with history; she is getting impatient. The debt-deflation tsunami is yearning to break free from its political bounds. Let it run free! Because when it is finally freed, it will sweep clean the entire state apparatus that has enslaved us, the children of the original revolution.
agree, MSM is misattributing populist anger to health care instead of financial malfeasance...and that might not be unintententional
Absolutely. Everyone loves the Obamacare bill.....well almost everyone.....well nearly a majority......ok,ok maybe 30% think it is a great idea.
And the vast majority of town hall angst and marches / rallies of more than 1,000 people over the past 6 months were certainly not Obamacare related. NOT.
Stick with your liberal agenda and your man Obama.
Very nice writing re your last paragraph. Looks to me as well deflation continues, inflation later.
Of course because I said that probably means I am wrong. Still I will just buy more gold (etc.) if those prices go down.
INVOLUNTARY AUSTERITY.
While nation states haven't had to do that yet a
lot of citizens have been doing that for their first
"lost decade". Welcome to the party everyone!
B9K9 is right. None of this matters, and up we go again. All the negative commentary will change nothing. Go long and make money.
no can do.
it's like telling me go long yellow stars in the time of hitler...
VOLUNTARY AUSTERITY? its already too late. has been for a long time. if they do this, the cities will burn...
if cash outperformed the stock market the last ten years, why would anyone care about the next "bull" market?
the next bull market will be starting in about 2015? perhaps, but who really cares? who will be buying ? PPT? or the FED? who is buying now? by that time, the people of the united states will be in rebellion and under martial law and united nations mandate, with the implementation of the police state by then.
a lot of people read this blog. check out the poll on how many of them are buying stocks now. case dismissed.
"u know how Rome got away with it for so long - they secretly reduced the silver content in the coins (aka DEBASED)"
This is what inevitably happens when you base your economy on worthless fiat ... oh, wait.
not going to happen.
when NYC and DC descend into anarchy and cannibalism, and the "leadership" flees -
THEN there may be a chance to make things better.
I wonder if the Obama admin is being briefed by the Putin admin on how to transition to a gang warfare state post economic collapse ... ?
Since we're on the topic, here's an interesting piece:
http://www.infowars.com/pdd-51-new-executive-order-give-obama-dictator-p...
The president is to execute the laws of the land, how can he issue an executive order that basically creates a new law? Any executive order that seeks to usup the power of congress should be struck down. How does a person go about challenging the legality of an executive order? Do we need to wait for marshall law to be encated before it can be challenged?
Any thoughts?
We must hope each State of the 50 will assert their right under the 10th Amendment, one of the original Amendments, to forever reject Federal encroachment and centralization of power - just like the governor of each State did so in defiance of The John Warner Defense Act of 2007:
The 10th Amendment is the lynchpin that secures Human Rights - which is a gift from the brains of the Founding Fathers to all of humanity. That is the dream the MLK shared. That is what our posterity should cherish and continually stand ready to defend.
This one better describes our affairs :
A nation can survive its fools and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and he carries his banners openly against the city. But the traitor moves among those within the gates freely, his sly whispers rustling through all alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears no traitor; he speaks in the accents familiar to his victim, and he wears their face and their garments and he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation; he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of a city; he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to be feared. The traitor is the plague." - Marcus Tullius Cicero, Roman Orator --- 106-43 B.C.
+1
That's the proverbial writing on the wall. How many fellow citizens, privy to special information, are not busy determining timing, but are planning on preserving wealth by liaising with foreign intelligence agencies.
Patriotism is overrated when few can even name off the Bill of Rights. My own father has declared himself a "Citizen of the World", disgusted with his perception of the "take all you can" approach many have adopted. As a Nation we have become demoralized and lost the fire to maintain sovereignty.
some say sovereignty is an anachronism....
but i still enjoy it.
globalsim, "one-world-ism" don't give me the warm fuzzies when i think about them....
they fill me with dread...of a world that has FINALLY been placed under control.
I share your dad's free floating patriotism of class however...."Citizens of the World UNITE!" .........against the bankers and their "representatives"!
your dad is a real man
What can I say?. I have been saying this to myself for the last year, and the market has soared.
I am still in cash and gold, thinking strongly to buy more gold.
I just somehow know, one day, one day to come, people will be saying to each other
"but how could we have been so blind! The signs were all there, all the time, and we let ourselves being sweettalked into holding equities. Should have bought gold, kept cash etc.
Now I must just act on my own advice.
Crazy world.!!
Your advice is great! Get going! Buy more PMs until you have some 5% - 10% of your net worth in physical metals.
Good to keep around 6 mos. worth of FRNs as well.
Yeah, crazy world!
Because when it is finally freed, it will sweep clean the entire state apparatus that has enslaved us, the children of the original revolution. <<<<<<
in some ways correct. but in others, not so much. the sweeping will have to be done by you and I. you know what that means. casualties of war. its a dirty job, but someone has to do it. we sat around on our asses for too long and let this crap continue , pretending to be free men. now the bill has come due. so the choice is ours to make its a choice that most americans simply do not want to face. i don't blame them really. war is hell. but what choices do we have at this point? even ron paul has been talking about revolution lately.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vLV4jn8BMU
all of these world problems iminate from people like this.
http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2007/12/02/18464823.php
so the die is set. so we must change. one way or the other. we must change. so what is a fat lazy overly distracted american to do. what to do? as time goes by, this situation becomes more acute and the constant ignoring of said problem will become less and less possible. or as ron paul said, could it all be just a bad dream and nightmare? what was it the late great george carlin said one time? its the american dream, but you have to be asleep to enjoy it....and so it goes. general washington, whoever and wherever you are sir, we await your orders.....
"since the March 09 lows, we have had 44 Mondays (or Tuesdays in the case of a US holiday on the Monday), of which 31 (over 70%!) have been UP days....This contrasts with all up days since the March 09 low of 58%.....Further, of all the 'USD' gains in the Dow since the March 09 low, over 80% have been seen on just Mondays!!! I find this staggering (and suspicious) - 80% of all the money gains in the Dow since the March lows have been seen in JUST 31 trading days......"
Up, like we see today again? Indeed suspicious. In Europe markets continued their drop of yesterday, until about one hour before US markets opened, then markets reversed, and trade over 2% above the day's most negative level. Such reversals have been numerous and most often not explicable by news or economically significant events. So I agree that the markets are manipulated since months: "something" is propping indices up systematically... Via wash-trades? Or leveraged futures or ETF trading? Is this done legally? Will anyone ever find proof of this? I've read some ZH reports focusing on overnight futures manipulation... How is it done, practically I mean, what kind of cash base is needed to pull this off, week after week? I would find it hard to believe there is only one party behind this; must be a concerted effort - anyone working on mining this system or finding patterns which may show who or what is behind it?
I hope B happens. I think A will happen even if C happens first. My view on timing is that everything takes longer than you think.
*growth
Yesssssssssssssssssssssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!
We ain't got no sliver in our coins neither.
"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be filled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome be bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance."
Cicero - 55 BC......Happy New Year!
Reply:
Brilliant....and u know how Rome got away with it for so long - they secretly reduced the silver content in the coins (aka DEBASED) more and more - until they were worthless....and then the Empire imploded, ushering in the Dark ages...
And only 2.5% copper in our pennies.
First they take away the gold (coins), 1933.
Then silver, 1965.
Then copper, 1982.
the day they took silver out of my money.
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1243&dat=19650723&id=jJwSAAAAIBAJ&...
I found one on truthorfiction.com that claims to have the original Cicero quote, which was later "added to" on the internet:
"The arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and assistance to foreign hands should be curtailed, lest Rome fall."
Got that here:
http://www.truthorfiction.com/rumors/c/cicero-plan.htm
I stopped reading here. You know soothsayers are getting a bit carried away when they start predicting the World Cup winner and who will kick the winning goal.
ah i have fond memories of spain. when 8 million people took to the streets demanding that their government get their boys out of iraq and you know what? it happened then. the men came home. and the government. the government was toppled. why can't we do that?
maybe we can borrow their bulls to run down the market
We can't do that because....
Democrats and Republicans are two faces of an equally corrupted coin, and the corrupting entities dictate where the coin rolls regardless of the visible face.
There are solutions to each and every one of our problems as a country and electorate. However, these solutions will never be implemented because our government no longer serves the people, and the solutions are not in the best interests of the banksters, mega corps, and super wealthy parties who can buy their influence.
Our government has been captured.
Citizen of the world?
I'm a subject of the USA.
Because it would make us retards, and cowards. Saddam and the Taliban both had to go. Iraq and Afghanistan both need to be stabilized before our troops can leave. Also, these colors don't run.
If you like Spain so much, why not go there?
You're none too bright, huh?
Since all of us everywhere are governed by "the next election cycle" (the incumbents desperate need to be re-elected) - nothing will be done. It will be involuntary austerity.
What a long winded article.
Lngst txt msg evR!
gr8 i
Excellent deep thoughts and most appreciated analysis and assessment. I am also looking at the timing (as most are) as critical. The market has befuddled many of us in these zones of helium based rarefied aire. I just can't help but recall that the origin of our globe's circumstances is borrowed time, spending tomorrow's production and having to make it back twice to be even. But historical correlations have been blown to smithereens so I will watch and learn.
We will implode and fade away, that is for certain.
But do we first go "supernova"? That is the question.
I am missing energy (not oil) as asset? Buy a power plant (preferably a wind farm or nuke with high capex and low opex) financed at todays low interest rates
How did Volcker cure an oversupply of capital by destroying demand? Higher rates benefit lenders and harm borrowers, but it's the borrowers who determine how much capital is actually necessary.
Not coincidentally, Reagan pushed deficit spending through the roof and the only difference between the Fed selling debt it is holding and the Treasury issuing fresh debt, is that the Treasury puts the money back in ways that help the economy to grow and absorb fresh capital. Pump priming, they call it.
By the Fed's very own logic of reducing the money supply by selling debt to bondholders, if there is a surplus of capital in the system, it in the hands of those with a surplus of capital. Not very politically convenient of course, so how do you cover up the fact that the rich draining resources from the rest of the economy isn't economically healthy?
Blame it on those wanting higher wages and prices. Unfortunately the money is most efficient in this real part of the economy, not in the gambling parlors of Wall St., but we just doubled down on a bad strategy and after thirty years of trickle down economics, the real economy is bone dry, while enormous storm clouds of capital search the land for some sucker to lend to.
Greedy AND stupid.
More empty thoughts from Bob. The reality is staring him in the face, but he cannot see. There is only one direction allowed in this market, and every possible effort will be made to insure "up" continues. The bid is continuous and is "blessed" with unlimited funds. Yes, someday it will end. Someday the sun will burn out, too. I'm not sure which comes first. Maybe Bob has a clue about the sun, because he does not about the markets.
This "bust" is coming to a theater near you real soon!
I guarantee it won't be a 7 year cycle.
It will make the '08 bust look like a tea party!
At some point we will collectively realise, like we did in the late 70s/early 80s, that the US and UK cannot operate successfully as command economies where the allocation of capital is done by politicians and where the public sector - a hugely inefficient and unproductive universe - grows at the expense of the private sector. The longer we wait for this reality to be accepted, the deeper the hole and the worse it will get before we flip the other way.
When reality finally appears, people make the decision. Either we hold onto civility and our permanent values or we sink back to barbarism. No one could have said it better than Janjuah. It’s an incredible statement. I wish I had written it.
There’s been nothing like our nation’s current dilemma since the American Revolution. To have a politician as inept as Bush the younger--whose experience was running a baseball team and others running the governership for him—enabled the neocons to take a superpower to war against a sovereign nation, with the military-industrial complex saying bring it on, and the Titans and GEs and Halliburtons and Bechtels and General Dynamics and CACIs and Chevrons and Custer Battles going into huge war materials operations. The big-government Republicans were a national disgrace.
Who better, then, than McCain to drive the final nail. In the pipeline appears a one-term minority senator, unknown to the growing ranks of Independents, slipped in on “hope.” The masses were dancing in the streets not knowing at all why this guy was brought in, while the whole world represented by the media was thinking that America was so tolerant and so modern now that it’d elected a black man, climbing the golden stairs to liberal heaven.
And that was not it at all. People were worried about the direction of their country—its killing of innocent villagers, the dragging of the US into war after war. You could tell a little what was happening by what was happening in Britian, with their poodle prime minister. The Brits could see the insanity more clearly than we and their rising anger showed it.
Enter the most big-government president in history, slipped in with Axelrod, Rham Emanuel, and Podesta’s Bob Rubin pals, and the media and the Dems pretending he was all things to all people. He arrives with unbelievable Democrat majorities clinging to his suit hem. And IMO, today is the Dems' highwater mark. Whether or not Brown wins in Massachusetts, this election has already put the fear in the Dems—they’re debating that if Brown wins, they’ll pass the Senate version of health care, without House negotiations; they’re trying to talk Voinovich into switching; ad nauseam. The point is, the political tide has already turned. This is Kennedy’s seat, this is Massachusetts, and guess what? Massachusetts now has 50% registered Independents! That is what has been happening to the two TBTF political parties. They’re imploding.
They took this nation too far, no matter what anyone says. Janjuah hit the nail on the head, exactly. When is this transfer from the public arena to the private going to happen? Janjuah predicts it will happen and involuntarily. Even as the Democrats struggle against the people to get their health care passed, the networks said this morning that a majority of Americans oppose it, according to the polls, and that strong opposition to it has increased dramatically. What's coming immediately may not be "Hope," but certainly "Change" is in the air.
+2
The US of A is full of hopium addicts glad to vote for free shit! no matter who makes the promise. Our creditors are the toughest thugs on the block, luring us into fatal dependency. Instead of a knuckle sandwich, a blade to the stomach, or a .45 to the head our dealers will extract final payment by chemical, biological, EMP, or just plain ole tactical nuke strikes. Full nuclear exchange would be a Pyhrric victory as the American people possess some of the best natural resources and farmland on the planet. Just a few major attacks will send the USA as we know it into a psychological death spiral.
That is if we don't first do it ourselves. We need bigger hits now. Overdose around the corner.
With Brown's election tonight, I now give Obamacare a 40 percent chance of passage. The people of the United States have signaled this is not what they wanted; this isn't why Obama was elected. This vote should restore some confidence in the power of the people.
As for our creditors being "the toughest thugs on the block," I was in a Home Depot today to take advantage of a special offer of 0 down and 12 mos to pay at 0 interest. I was told that tomorrow will be the last day such an offer can be made; henceforth, a new law takes effect that all such offers will require a minimum down. I am not saying this is bad, but I do interpret it as collusion between the government and the bankers to piggyback on the responsible to help make good the losses they anticipate on their loose lending practices. Or is it just a simple case of the banker monopoly price fixing? Else in a free market why can't a store make such an offer, simply to compete or sell more merchandise?
+2 = 5
Sadly, I believe you underestimate the power of the elite oligarchy in DC and we WILL have a health care bill that will both raise taxes and insure the end of US hegemony, both fiscally and militarily. The "progressives" don't care about dems or repubs, but only about their agenda. With helicopter Ben at the helm of the Fed, the printing press and TBTF "banks" will be around until the USD is 50% of what it is today. The rally in USD we are witnessing now will be the last hurrah of the modern equivalent of the Roman Empire. We have taken out all the silver, copper and gold from out "money" and the effects of that will now fully come home to roost.
groovyroovy
"People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance."
This will not sit well with the majority of ZHers who are central planning, more-government-is better-government, redistributionists who seem to have little interest in making wholesale changes in government by voting out nearly all incumbents in November. Prefer to focus on companies they don't like, rather than the biggest beast of all - the government.
methinks you've no idea who ZHers are, nor their viewpoints. the gov't (GS) is and has been the target for a long while now.
Thank you so much for this Bob update!
Marcus Tullius Cicero - January 3, 106 BC – December 7, 43 BC)
As the financials have decoupled and drifted away from the terra firma of of the productive capacity of goods and services and increasingly come to inhabit a house of paper with infinite divisions and multiplications of artificial capital it is no wonder that the handwringing and personal angst which flows across the pages here has as its common resonance a sense of abandonment, expectation and foreboding. The ongoing corruption of the once sacrosanct Delphic markets whose fundamental dogmas have degenerated into the shabby and contrived pretenses of a degenerate priestly class of hypocrites has engendered among the once worshipful neophytes a sense of acute dismay bordering on a collective dissociation. Out of this deconstruction is emerging the inchoate outlines of a truly creative approach to economics and trading. From the unmistakeable luster of gold and silver and the deep historical, aesthetic, and even metaphysical significances of these elements are shining forth the dawn whose evanescence is slowly and yet ineluctably breaking across the gloom of the enfolding uncertainty and doubt. Thanks to ZH and its contributors we can participate more fully in that unlikely and yet essential marriage of the transcendent and the mundane, of art and economics.
janjuah, you want opinions? Try decaf...
China has a pie in the sky. It looks golden to them. They will buy. Gold's support level is $1040-$1080. Look to see this tested in the next couple months, but buying from China should hold the bottom not only for it, but the rest of the market. The DJ support will then be oh anywhere from $9,200-$10,000. From what I can tell, after that, QE Dos should start with the jobs program, bringing the DoeLarrs to 'Mericans at home. Inflation anyone? I love that game.
janjuah has never had an original thought in his life