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Must read from the man who called the rally. No commentary needed. We will reserve it for Mr. Mishkin's letter.
His performance from 2000-2002 was incredible.
This guy did not leave out any of these dirty rats
I tried, really I tried, but DocStoc sucks. Can you repost some other way?
Psst. See "attachment" for a link to the .pdf of same ;^
"MARK IT ZERO, DUDE"
The second leg down in the Great Depression came from a banking crisis in Europe in May 1931. Oddly enough, the EU financial system is the most vulnerable now. So, don't rule out a depression just because the central banks are pumping liquidity. There is plenty of evidence of a liquidity trap.
Here's Art Cashin, UBS, who also called the rally, but sees the liquidity trap and the drying up of securitization,
Geez, what a windbag.
yep....i had to give it up before getting to
the bitter end...
Wow, he's on a roll this time! His comments remind me of Lou Jiwei's spectacular "It will not be too bad this year. Both China and America are addressing bubbles by creating more bubbles and we're just taking advantage of that. So we can't lose,"
We can't lose!
Interesting story on Chrysler
JG says "I have no idea why the current administration, whichcame in on a promise of change, for heaven’s sake, isso determined to protect the status quo of the financialsystem at the expense of already weary taxpayers who arepromised only somewhat better lifeboats."
He he. Can someone send Jeremy an e-vite to Zerohedge?
What an excellent article!
Thank you very much, it's not often than the word 'resource' is mentioned by a finance type! Very astute.
Mr Grantham underestimates the situation; we are in an energy crisis not a finance crisis. If we had sufficient energy available, the finance criminality would be safely masked by the economic growth.
We now lack the energy and have lacked it for over ten years.
There will be no economic recovery, not by any standard, not ten nor thirty years from now. Our finance infrastructure is intact, ready to finance to the left and finance to the right ... but ... no production on any reasonable scale exists to finance.
Real production is a lost art ... like plastering.
The only chance is to retrench. Read Dickens to see the future world if everything works out well for us ... otherwise read Froissart, because that is where we are all - and our children and grandchildren - are heading.
Unless, of course we nuke ourselves first.
I'll take my chances on door #3. Of course it looks like Ahmed "I hate the Jews because I'm descended from them" -inejad is going to speed up the process for us. And 4'2" Kim (Lil Kim?) is also waiting to cover if the insane Iranian takes too long.
As much as I respect JG, he is fighting the last war. We are way past getting the toothpaste back into the tube. I just do not want any more out. Dearest Leader and his Drones are hell bent for leather on this god foresaken agenda. This is a game changer- we will never get back to the garden.
There was a time of moderate efficiency in the market. WE know that was a bit faulty too, yet there was an intrinsic value to a price. Today, e.g. AMZN, the Z-7 run late in the summer, and so much more, all suggests suggests silly business as in the shot in "Independence Day" seeing the dancers on the roof tops get totally zapped - not even knowing what hit them!
To be acting rationally when the rest are behaving non-rationally is merely cute. Defining the new way of acting in the market is still to be forged. JG is too conventional. Good thoughts -like the Magino(sp?) line.
Grantham is the most honest of the liars. As a manager his portfolio (EAAFX) trailed the index by 11% in 1999 and his firm proceeded to lose substantial amounts of assets. Check out performance in 2000, 2001 and 2002. One of his major themes has been the balance between investment risk and career risk as a portfolio manager.
his investment portfolio should fall below trend for long periods (esp when growth goes faster than value). But he should also avoid substantial losses
"What has precipitated this crisis is a decline in a broad range of assets to... a fair price!"
Goddamn, and who says fundamental analysis is dead? Between him and David Einhorn, we might just have a revolution of economic thought from business leaders. The CEO of Nucor isn't a softy either.
Worth the time
a fair price is just as subjective a notion as an unfair one
Going off slightly...
Did Tyler just get another plug on cnbc at the start of the Rosie interview..?:)
Excellent comment but Martin Roberge, strategist at Dundee Securities, says the rally in global cyclicals has further to run so stay long energy, commodities (ex-gold) and technology.
Yep, Rosie put the world into perspective with facts and the resident hack from Wells speaks in subjective platitudes. I would be embarrassed to be an employee of Wells after watching this.
Speaking of Larry Summers and bully pulpits, Nathan Martin on today’s Economic Edge nails Nouriel Roubini. Roubini lately is calling economic prospects both ways. Where are the hard predictions Roubini used to make? He’s been fudging it for six months. Sad to say, but I expected this when I found out in May of Larry Summers’ non-disclosed business relationship with Roubini as a part owner and paid advisor of RGE up until this past December.
Summers' White House Disclosure
According to Nouriel Roubini the recession’s over. This sure seems to be the concensus, but I say no way, the only way this Depression is over is if you believe the trumped up government growth data. I don’t.
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg)—The U.S. economy’s worst recession since the 1930s seems to be over, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York professor who predicted the financial crisis.
The economic recovery in advanced nations will still be “anemic,” Roubini, chairman of New York-based research and advisory service Roubini Global Economics, said via satellite to a conference in Cape Town, South Africa. The economist said he’s “more optimistic” on the outlook for growth in emerging markets.
It’s nice to play it both ways so that you will be correct in any event… “anemic” growth will be his, “see, I told you so.” Sorry, Nouriel, trumped up growth figures do not equate to recession over, we are still in a Depression and it is about to hit home in a harder and more devastating way.
Brilliant article as always, but I find fault with his teeny tiny asset allocation changes that result from it....hes only pulling equities from 65% to 62%. If he is convinced we're in for a big pullback 1) 62% is still way too high and 2) moving only 3% of your assets is a rounding error....anything under 10% will never have any substantial effect on your results!
Only thing worse than being wrong is being right but not having the courage to act on it.
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