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The Definitive Report On "The Search For Growth": A Many-Worlds Approach

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While not making any specific recommendations (or precisely because of), and since it is not the product of some major conflicted sell-side "advisory" desk, the BNY/Economist's just released report on the "Search for Growth" is possibly one of the best and most insightful pieces of research into the prevailing popular opinion about the opportunities and risks in capital markets we have read recently. From the survey: "The search for growth remains challenging and unpredictable. For every indicator that points to a more sustainable recovery, there are others that suggest the emergence of new problems. Although it is not easy to make decisions about how and where to invest in this difficult economic and market environment, it does help to understand how peers from around the world are responding. Our survey of 800 respondents tackles a broad range of themes, including the prospects for growth across sectors, regions and asset classes. At its heart is a set of scenarios; we asked respondents to indicate how likely they thought each scenario was, and then asked them to tell us what impact it might have on their portfolio. The results provide a fascinating insight into the current mindset of investors and executives around the world."

And while the full report is chock full of extremely informative tidbits, the one chart we want to highlight is the following many-worlds scenario "heatmap" which maps out the probability of any one of 24 scenarios with that specific scenario's broad portfolio impact. Needless to say, there are many more "negative", "highly likely scenarios" out there... which also means the real downside case will almost certainly not come from any of these 14 potential adverse developments.

The Search For Growth

BNY Mellon White Paper - Search for Growth

 

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Tue, 06/07/2011 - 22:31 | 1349467 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Anonymous runs the The Economist. It all makes sense now.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:04 | 1349538 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

The Economist is now a bought and paid for whore Officially.. Pumping the 3rd World! for investment dollars!

 

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,874996,00.html

 

http://braziltraveltips.blogspot.com/2010/01/just-little-bit-of-trancoso-gossip.html

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 09:19 | 1350366 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Years ago, I used to subscribe to The Economist. And then they got bought out by a US-owned publisher, and their articles became increasingly pro-US and Israel.

End of subscription.

The last time I paged through The Economist I was struck by their Keynesian and Statist worldview. Yuk.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 22:28 | 1349468 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Executive Subtext: OMG things are changing fast and we don't have a playbook for this! Your guess is as good as ours where this is going. But if you'd like to believe that the same old same old will work, then send us your money and we'll place that bet with a fee for 'advice'. Oh and if anything goes wrong don't blame us cause we told you so but you wouldn't listen? Nooo. 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 04:05 | 1349855 A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000
A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 4000's picture

Sir,

 

You are the exact type of go getter I need in my M&A department. Please forward me your salary requirements immediately!

 

Sincerely yours,

Some over the hill incompetent shit head who is trying to hold on until retirement

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 22:43 | 1349506 monopoly
monopoly's picture

"MarketWatch"

Obama not worried about double-dip recession.

Finally, he has it right. I am not worried about that either since we never ended the recession and are closer to depression. Good call Boss.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 00:53 | 1349709 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

Time for a few rounds of golf and another visit from jayzee and beyonce.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 22:43 | 1349507 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

There is no growth.

 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 22:58 | 1349526 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Worse, there's Negative growth.

Contraction in real terms.  Sans CTRL-Peeing on all the Banks and telling us its raining, you're right. No growth.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:28 | 1349587 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

Exactly, only growth in MOPE.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 22:53 | 1349511 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

The impunity within the Bernank is insurmountable.

How dare he tell our Seniors or those on limited income their cost of living is "too low" or even "transitory"!!!

Ben is your typical egg head academic you laugh about over a cold beer.

Most unfortunate he controls a large percentage of our financial fate,

I dare say...

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 22:52 | 1349524 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

+1

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:07 | 1349547 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

i would describe the bernake as the guy who controls the ferris wheel at the carnival.. he is no lion tamer and he does not own the show.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:43 | 1349606 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Jay 'Carney' Obama's new press secretary. Pretty damn close, I must say.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:44 | 1349607 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Today he was just a pathectic carnival barker, filling in for the FED's as yet to be hired Nobel Prize awarded Ph.D. PR exec/Minister of truth. 

 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 22:46 | 1349513 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

The Bernank said today that the feds services were all free to the taxpayers of the united states....i bet that make everyone feel good..........

 

Just waiting on the gold revalation.......

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 22:55 | 1349527 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Someone  mentioned the crying game earlier. That was so apprapo!

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:36 | 1349591 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Enter^2 deleted.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:31 | 1349592 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Yup, Jaye Davidson, second from left.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:05 | 1349540 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Funny thing that Peak Oil, it *will* be interesting to see how it finally plays out...

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:15 | 1349563 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

It is playing out.  The cheap and easy is in decline.  The tedious and expensive is now the  only option.  $4/gal minimum going forward.

Not the end for the SUV, but count on more GOM "accidents" fer shir!

 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:15 | 1349568 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

We are not yet near to the end game....call it "bottom of the third..."

I do like that though..

The cheap and easy is in decline.  The tedious and expensive is now the  only option. 

I might just file it for later...

 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:27 | 1349585 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Thanks.  Use early and often.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 00:29 | 1349688 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. It's a scramble now and the tone alone is a tell. They're checking under the beds 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 00:38 | 1349700 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

As long as they're not checking under my camouflaged fuel depot in the back yard.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 19:14 | 1352901 expatincentam
expatincentam's picture

"It is playing out. The cheap and easy is in decline. The tedious and expensive is now the only option."  Bradford Field (Pennsylvania) well operator, 1885.  ...What a maroon!

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:15 | 1349562 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

bny mellon is like the Everest College of financial institutions

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:24 | 1349574 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

Recall the Economist Gold Index?  Every t¡me the Economist publishes an article about gold, almost always negative, the gold price rises almost immediately thereafter. I note an obvious bias in the questions asked in their report, that they do not include PMs as a separate asset class.  The closest question regarding PMs relates to industries expeted to grow and they include ¨Metals and Mining,¨not distingishing between primarily industrial metals and precious metals.  Thus, the survey is quite flawed since they have not included a specific asset class, PMs, with one of the best records for ten years now.  Accidental oversight?  I think not.  Important ommission?  Obviously.  Why... because they are part of the power elite, using their feigned ¨objectivity¨to keep the old game going.  And who are their respondents, with about half positive about global economic growth.  What beverage were they offered before completing the survey. I distrust their sampling of respondents, too.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:29 | 1349588 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Part of the issue is that Gold demand and price reflect many things, most of which they don't understand. One aspect is Gold as a global economic change index. As traditional sources of value and growth become less predictable, gold's attractiveness increases as an eminently fungible store of wealth. 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:36 | 1349604 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

But maybe they do understand, and really very well, but they would be the last to solicit responses which might highight and aggravate this highly significant mega trend of the decade, a trend which challenges the very existence on the whole ponzi paper scheme

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 00:28 | 1349678 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

If they fail to cover it, they don't understand it. Same difference with regard to how it impacts their readers. You're saying they're maliciously concealing the story. I say yes, but only the part that they understand. The facets that they and most of the MSM fail to see contribute to their denial. They still believe it's a fad and analyze gold as an investment the same way they do for Lululemmon. 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:44 | 1349612 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Why is the one at the top of the stairs to nowhere the only one with arms crossed all closed minded and arrogant like?

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:54 | 1349630 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Play nice. I'll speak with you.  Yen

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 00:07 | 1349644 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

I'll play nice once Mr. Know it all realizes the evil of his ways and jumps seeing how no-one at the pearly gates up there in those clouds will let'm in.

Ever!

That felt good.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 01:53 | 1349758 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Are you ready to talk? YEN

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:48 | 1349622 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

No need for QE3, Fisher says...

http://owe-bama.blogspot.com/

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:56 | 1349634 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Qe#3  is functioning. CDAD called it on Monday. Buy backs, that mean nothing! yen

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 23:57 | 1349635 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Extreme events, such as the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market and ensuing fnancial crisis, did not fgure in most investors’ probability distributions.

Thank you Doctors. And your fucking co-horts at Moody's and Fitch saw to it most investors anywhere within cow-swinging-distance of an MBS origination wouldn't with gleeful abandon.

Scum!


Wed, 06/08/2011 - 00:05 | 1349646 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 It's safe to assume, that we are on the same page.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 00:14 | 1349655 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

The cover or 30?  I have issues with this at front and back.  Can't possibly be any good meat in the middle.

Speaking of Meat, is BNY Mellon hiring?

He won't have to relocate.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 02:04 | 1349766 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Meat head!  Grow up!

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 00:14 | 1349657 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

"It's complicated"

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 00:35 | 1349689 Tejano
Tejano's picture

Well, thanks, Economist Intelligence Unit. Now safe to say that none of "...these 14 potential adverse developments" is the Big One - the unpredictable one that will topple this fragile edifice. Fourteen down, how many to go?

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 00:32 | 1349691 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

QE succeeded resoundingly in 1 area: preserving the status quo AKA the rot. Sooner rather than later, that decision  will need to be made once again. 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 01:08 | 1349720 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

The QE tango:

1) QE1: Floor under US banking, some help for international banking

QE2: Floor under western banking/sovereign debt (lots of EU helping, stealthier than 1)

3) QE3: Stealth support for global ponzi. Hot money only. Short horizon, fast moving. It will not look like anything, so will be hard to pin. In fact, it might already be in "effect".

Or such is how I see it. Market support is a small part of the real show.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/06/07/bend-your-mind-around-this/

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 01:20 | 1349731 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

#25 is missing ? far Left ,top in blue

Ben Bernanke apologises to the starving World for believing QE does not create massive debt through fractional banking. He now has come to the conclusion that digital money isn't worth the paper its printed on.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 06:39 | 1349988 wackyquacker
wackyquacker's picture

gold star! gold star! you get the gold star of the day award

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 01:59 | 1349765 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I won't junk any person on this site. EVER! I will put my fist through a skull!

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 03:03 | 1349808 Roaming Uranus ...
Roaming Uranus Looking For Klingons's picture

Yes, I just Junked you for being an idiot and I am talking a Pure Idiot.

Listen, do yourself and everyone else a favor and stop throwing out your ridiculous little brain farts.

Either, you are a child in a 45 year old mans body (in very bad shape I am sure) sitting around drinking whiskey and throwing in your 2 cents, which is a bunch of freaking nonsense.

Or.......

You are just a Pure Baffoon with the IQ of 65 (this would also be on the high end of the curve).

I junked you for being an idiot and many more are sure to follow.  Listen Sanford, you would make a nice junk dealer, but that would probably be it.  Peters principle would hit the ceiling at that point.

Thank you and have a nice week.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 03:54 | 1349843 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I assume this is a death throw. My IQ is well below  your figure. !@$ last time I checked.   ARE We good?

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 05:54 | 1349962 speedy
speedy's picture

Instead of replying why did you not just junk him?

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 06:12 | 1349971 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Grasping, redistributionist western governments have killed incentive and organic growth. They were aided and abetted by the banks.

I will never expand my business. Why should I? Choking regulations and highest corporate tax rates in the world that only huge businesses can exploit has killed my incentive to add employees and grow.

I have to have updated msds, medical safety data sheets on the white out in my desk and the air freshener for god's sake!

Capital, talent, and growth will go to the non western world. They dont tolerate welfare freeloaders and incentive killing regulations and entitlements.

We deserve to collapse and end this abomination of a nanny state, where armed fda goons raid an amish man for selling unpasteurized milk.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 09:30 | 1350413 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Yup, that about sums it up.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 09:49 | 1350486 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Every point on the chart will look ridiculous to us in ten years.  Black Swan events always dominate future events and they are not forseeable. 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:50 | 1350819 nyse
nyse's picture

Sweet. Facebook is our only hope...Fine. And Linkedin I guess too.

If you flip the x axis, perhaps it can serve as a good road map. (unlikely-->likely)

It would be interesting to see a similar study based on respondents from here. You won't.

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