The Definitive Report On "The Search For Growth": A Many-Worlds Approach

Tyler Durden's picture

While not making any specific recommendations (or precisely because of), and since it is not the product of some major conflicted sell-side "advisory" desk, the BNY/Economist's just released report on the "Search for Growth" is possibly one of the best and most insightful pieces of research into the prevailing popular opinion about the opportunities and risks in capital markets we have read recently. From the survey: "The search for growth remains challenging and unpredictable. For every indicator that points to a more sustainable recovery, there are others that suggest the emergence of new problems. Although it is not easy to make decisions about how and where to invest in this difficult economic and market environment, it does help to understand how peers from around the world are responding. Our survey of 800 respondents tackles a broad range of themes, including the prospects for growth across sectors, regions and asset classes. At its heart is a set of scenarios; we asked respondents to indicate how likely they thought each scenario was, and then asked them to tell us what impact it might have on their portfolio. The results provide a fascinating insight into the current mindset of investors and executives around the world."

And while the full report is chock full of extremely informative tidbits, the one chart we want to highlight is the following many-worlds scenario "heatmap" which maps out the probability of any one of 24 scenarios with that specific scenario's broad portfolio impact. Needless to say, there are many more "negative", "highly likely scenarios" out there... which also means the real downside case will almost certainly not come from any of these 14 potential adverse developments.

The Search For Growth

BNY Mellon White Paper - Search for Growth