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Defying Gravity One Round Of QE At A Time

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Nic Lenoir of ICAP

The silver lining is always the same: private GDP has collapsed, and governments around the world are trying to prevent us from falling off the cliff artificially via stimulus, quantitative easing, accounting gimmicks, or data distortion. Earlier this year, the Fed attempted to pull a little bit of liquidity out of the system and let some liquidity facilities mature. Sure enough it was not long before the crap hit the fan. The Eurozone already battling with fiscal embarrassment especially for the Mediterranean members started to struggle even more rolling of debt, and especially USD debt with USD liquidity diminished. It triggered a relapse in credit space sending equity indices in tailspin and bear market territory for a number of indices (as definedusing the moronic 20% rule).

My friend Julian Brigden has long pushed the argument of global liqudity as the main driver of financial asset prices. Thinking about it US equity indices made their highs in late april, at a time when European woes were already long acknowledged: EURUSD turned bearish in December and the Greek scandal dates from last fall. Looking at it from that angle, it is hard to refute that it is liquidity that drives market developments. In a way it goes along the obvious realization that markets' unbelievable rally from the 80's onward was driven by the rise on the debt to GDP ratio, or the observations of S&P market spike on every POMO day in 2009 post 11 A.M.

We have long warned and acknowledged the rollover of Economic activity (curiously following closely the expiry of stimulus programs, quantitative easing, and therefore liquidity injection). However I want to draw your attention toward our global liquidity chart which shows that after allowing liquidity to subside forces in power have addressed the problem and world liquidity is flying towards new highs. There is European QE involved, talks of additional stimulus in Japan, research stating that due to securitization Chinese loans in H1 2010 were 30% higher than officially acknowledged, and yesterday the minutes indicating that the Federal Reserve's board is cosily discussing further securities purchase if warranted. So while the tone was around the end of Q1 that of austerity, letting liquidity facilities expire, and withdrawing "exceptional" accomodation, it appears political will has lasted about as long as my latest experiment with dieting. The difference being the future collapse of the world economy doesn't rely on my eating habits.

I came to piece these thoughts together observing the price action today as equities were under pressure and the DXY was getting pummeled. Certainly this is a departure from traditional correlation between risk assets which are guided by nothing but liquidity and carry trade funding/financing. WHat is interesting here is the big conflict we have between the ramp up in liquidity and the sudden realization that a double dip is pretty much guarantied (barring more stimulus/QE and the likes). Maybe it is precisely this divergence which is leading us to observe weak equities, a weak USD, strong US Treasuries, and commodities are trying to figure out their identity torn between the weak USD giving them a boost and the weak demand.

Technically I think there are a few markets we need to track closely to see if this trend persist and capitalize on it. Equities are consolidating as today's weakness is harldy a concession given the recent advance and they have followed the liquidity rebound. The Nasdaq chart attached shows how yesterday at the close the index was potentially posting a key reversal, but the fact we retraced this PM most of this morning's sell-off invalidates quite a bit the evening star that was in progress. Let's folow closely this index in the next few days and see how this consolidation evolves. The risk in the next few days is that if we end up breaking through the 100-dma after a bit more range trading we accelerate further. The Nikkei future surely makes me lean this way, because we have held a HUGE support at 9,090 and we have potentially completed the last leg of an open-ended triangle which would send us towards 11,500. Surely trading around 9,600 right now the risk reward is tilted in favor of the bulls.

The most money to be made is probably when commodities tell us which way to dance. With equities on the fence and the mixed signals with the attempted evening star in Nasdaq and the bullish formation for the Nikkei, I count on commodities to point in the right direction. Today they are not validating the sell-off in the DXY. Watch for a key break in Copper (see daily chart) to the upside which would trigger an inverted H&S. Conversely, gold (especially looking at the daily chart) has formed a very bearish pattern in Elliott, and if we start trading below 1,202/1,200 we would trigger a bear flag as can be seen on the hourly chart. Watch those two charts to give you a thumb up or a thumb down.

Bonds meanwhile have held their support and shot up. It seems that whether it is because risk is collapsing or becaue the money printed needs to find a home in a low yielding environment and with equities losing retail's favors, the long end of the US fixed income curve is going to remain bid (in terms of prices, not yields). We still think US yields are going to underperform German yields, and the curve is pushing foward with more flattening (see our recommendation a few weeks ago). This is a constant and for now the trend is towards lower yields. The day we get weak equities, weak commodities, weak US Treasuries, and a weak USD... well that day you better to start praying because it means gravity just woke up.

Good luck trading,

Nic

 

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Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:17 | 473184 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

Diet tip- take up smoking

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:29 | 473195 Pamela Anderson
Pamela Anderson's picture

Something or "someone" is distorting the correlation between equities and yield by holding the S&P... I am not joking

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/9844/ready2r.jpg

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:32 | 473203 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Now THAT picture was funny. :>)

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:47 | 473219 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

lol......damn midget.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:26 | 473189 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thanks Nic.

Any one notice how muted the pre-market is despite "good" reports from BAC and GE? And this was before C reported. This is where things get interesting. When "good" news doesn't push a market up, what exactly will?

Cue the ominous music boys. The sharks are circling.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:30 | 473197 Minyan Vince
Minyan Vince's picture

CD-

where do you get good news from BAC and GE...top line fell out of bed!

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:35 | 473206 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

That was why I put "good" in quotes. Because it must be true since CNBC told me it was. If Becky and Joe tell me all is well, I pull the covers over my head, hit snooze and get another 30 minutes of shut eye. :>)

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:50 | 473221 Minyan Vince
Minyan Vince's picture

ah ha...gotcha...good to know about the Becky and Joe tell tale..now I don't have to get up @ 5am everymorning :-)

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:25 | 473190 10044
10044's picture

Gold's gettin hammered, fcking jpmc, actually thx jpmc for making it cheaper to buy

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:31 | 473196 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

While Gold remains within it's lower channel, it appears Gold and Gold miners are being set up for a take down along with the market. While the ability of the powers that be to manipulate Gold has been diminished of late, they still have a few tricks up their sleeves.

Early this morning I slapped on some Gold (ETF) shorts to protect my miners. Ops, maybe it was puny little me that moved the Gold market? :>)

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:20 | 473455 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I've found that buying GDX puts when it hits the top of its channel has been a better hedge for my mining stocks than using GLD.  Takes a lot of the pain out of holding the stocks through the volatility.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:31 | 473201 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

GLD Options Expiry...Right at MaxPain...But there is NO manipulation, per CFTC criminals...

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:28 | 473194 Minyan Vince
Minyan Vince's picture

how long will micro trump macro....

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:42 | 473210 Joe Shmoe
Joe Shmoe's picture

I keep wondering about this too.  Should we look to extreme examples like North Korea (as in, the extreme of manipulation)?

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:31 | 473199 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Euro Libor rates are blowing the top out.  You may think you see liquidity, but it is not in the system.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:31 | 473200 KevinH
KevinH's picture

So what is your take on the recent action on the Nikkei, falling 400+ points to 9355, on a technical level? I know the huge support is at 9000 and it looks like we will retest it next week.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:44 | 473214 Joe Shmoe
Joe Shmoe's picture

Does technical analysis even hold up in this market?  

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:44 | 473215 Stink_Pickle
Stink_Pickle's picture

anyone got a read on TW's ecri growth?

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:44 | 473217 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

the nikkei plunges and somehow you see it as a bullish indicator? 

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:47 | 473220 KevinH
KevinH's picture

I think this was written before the Nikkei plunged to 9300, because he indicated the Nikkei had bounced and sitting above 9600.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:22 | 473228 Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

Years of Austerity would equal political,financial and social insecurity as populations around the globe would say were not going to take it.So to protect the Politicians and Bankers the whole situation takes a a jump into the wide blue yonder and the great unknown.In other words it couldn,t be as bad as the above,could it ? and instead of being 100% total crap it might only be 90% and then they can say but for us you,d have copped for the other 10% so grovel and be thankful.Hyperinflation seem the likely outcome,the only solution to unpayable deficits.Buy Gold and Silver before they realise the  penny has dropped.Hyperinflation becomes more and more sure as the only workable solution to these deficits.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:19 | 473277 mephisto
mephisto's picture

the sudden realization that a double dip is pretty much guarantied (barring more stimulus/QE and the likes)

Well last time, QE went straight to Wall Street's excess reserves, as the Fed well knows. Unless they find a way to get cash from the Fed to small business, I'm still calling for double-dip - straightforward QE won't avoid that. 

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:35 | 473306 Muir
Muir's picture

Wow!

Nic!

Awasome post!!
(injustice to only be able to give it 5 stars)

Thanks Tyler.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 14:00 | 473943 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

The DOW/SP00 leg down has started.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!