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"Deja Vu All Over Again" - Jeff Gundlach's Latest Set Of Contrarian Observations

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As usual, Jeff Gundlach provides one of the best, most comprehensive overviews of the economy with a fixed income/rates emphasis. 97 pages of pure facts as the voiceover was given during the earlier webcast, allowing the reader come to their own set of conclusions.

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Tue, 04/12/2011 - 19:09 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"90% of this game is half mental," too.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 19:17 | Link to Comment Muir
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If you see nothing else in the presentation, see page 18.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:08 | Link to Comment linrom
linrom's picture

If you subtract payroll taxes, you're back at the pre WWII level.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:45 | Link to Comment ArsoN
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Pg 18 on the doc owner or the actual presentation?  If you go with the presentation it brings up a valid point.  I just wish they would first fix the monetary policy (so stop targeting "asset"/stock prices) before jacking up progressive taxation.  

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 02:01 | Link to Comment Popo
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If you see nothing else in this article, note that one of the primary holders of US debt is... wait for it... wait for it... The Social Security "TRUST FUND".

 

LOLOLOL.  Now here's a question for the politicians:  If it's a "trust fund", how come it's consdered "debt" and not an "asset"?   (And therein lies the fallacy of the semantic use of the words "trust fund").  In other words, there is no trust fund.  The so-called "lock box" is nothing but a box of IOU's. 

 

 

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 03:06 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
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The data was from September 2010.  Throw in FED buying and foreign outflows, we are well on the way to exactly three owners of US Bonds 1) The FED 2) The US Taxpayer 3) Regulated US Financial Institutions (Bank, Insurance, Pension).

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 19:18 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Good grief....still going through it, but "No market for old men" summarizes one of our current problems...with the geriatric segment of the syndicate using their experiences to make calls on things that they have no fixed reference to measure against.  Hence, the constant clatter of, "At $98 per the S&P, slap a historical ratio on it and...presto, 20% upside from here" bullshit we are subjected to every day by the laziest bunch of "journalists" our nation has ever known...aka those that simply take their talking points from said geriatric criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers and call it "programing"...aka The BlowHorn [aka CNBC].

So keep kicking ass, Tyler...and now back to yet another ream of shit you have put to me.....

Cdad drinking one big ass martini...and secretly hoping for a J. Dimon whining rant tomorrow....

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 19:50 | Link to Comment treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Why secretly hoping - I want finger pointing, blaming, Jerry Springer show type shit - maybe a thrown chair, brawl - o.k. now I'm secretly hoping....

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 20:29 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

We are all secretly hoping for yet another "it hurts to be a banker" fucking bullshit J. Dimon swamp of nonsense.  And then...to watch it impact K. Finerman on Nanosecond Money...oo la la.  I could lose 5% tomorrow and still feel like I had a great day.  Just so happens that I am not so good at that whole "secretly" thing....but I do try.

Oh...and...FUCK J. DIMON BTW!

 

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 08:34 | Link to Comment Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

"No market for old men" Rack it! another gem added to the ZH lexicon.

Res publica mortuus est, vivat imperium

 

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 19:26 | Link to Comment silvertrain
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Housing numbers on 68-69-70 are U L G Y ...And another Yogi for that would be,

"the future aint what it used to be"

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 19:45 | Link to Comment mrcmmm
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Why anyone would buy a house right now.....the amount of fresh inventory that will be flooding in from foreclosures for years......

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 20:03 | Link to Comment cxl9
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Depends on the market, I suppose. I've been looking at rental properties lately (to add to the 1.5 that I own now). Prices have come down far enough in some areas that I am finding properties that are immediately cash-flow positive. And rents have been climbing. Remember: all of those people foreclosed out of their houses will still need somewhere to live. They don't just disappear, although I guess some of them migrate back to their native countries..

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 20:27 | Link to Comment Double down
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Blame Canada

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 03:22 | Link to Comment cowpieflapjack
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Blame Tim Hortons

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:08 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
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"107: How many months it would take to sell banks’ current and shadow inventory of foreclosed homes.

Banks’ vast pile of foreclosed homes doesn’t appear to be diminishing. That’s a troubling sign for the future of the housing market."

107 Months!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/10/30/number-of-the-week-107-months-...

Even in Dog Years, that's ALOT of inventory ...added to the thousands of new homes builders are piling on the market every week....

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 19:59 | Link to Comment ZeroAffect
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Home Builders are becoming extinct...default rates are still headed up, up and away...the majority of houses that sold in my area this winter were VACANT.  

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 20:08 | Link to Comment silvertrain
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Not to mention materials going sky high like copper etc.. It will not be cost effective to stick build vs buying and remodeling or some variable of that for a long time..Atleast until the supply gets sucked up.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 20:03 | Link to Comment I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Don;t we need more service jobs paying $10.00 per hour to get this economy moving?

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 20:48 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

people (friends and family) are actually asking me , do i think they should drive over 1 hour, one way, to take $10 an hour jobs with no benefits......i hope they get the answer when i get up and walk away

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 20:10 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Looks like JPM earnings have been leaked.

ES futures just took off.

Same with gold and oil.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 20:17 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Bank of Japan??

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 20:23 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
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Top 10 Shortfall States As A % of 2011 Budget: slide 64

What do all those states have in common?

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:12 | Link to Comment New_Meat
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kinda' trick question: Jersey, Maine, and Cow Hampshire all at least made Governor reversals last time around. - Ned

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 20:26 | Link to Comment Double down
Double down's picture

The QE pages were great as well.  QE makes yields and stocks go up.  Also thought it was neat to see how much the S&P outperformed Shanghai.

 

 

 

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 20:43 | Link to Comment linrom
linrom's picture

Interestingly the US Civil Service Sector plus the US Military Retirement Fund own combined total of 8.1% of US Debt or just over $1 trillion dollars. In comparison, Social Security Fund owns 17.8% or just over $2.4 Trillion. The question that one might ask is " when will US Civil Service and Military Retirement Funds exceed Social Security Fund obligation?

By my caculations, the SS Fund should be at 32% in relation to Governement employees given that 4 out of 5 are not Government employees. To me that implies that Government retirement is almost twice as generous as Social Security.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 20:48 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

easily twice as generous , it sure starting to look like 10 times as generous, whatever the numbers, it is unsustainable

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:09 | Link to Comment fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Angry combat veterans are a worse scenario for TPTB than a bunch of boomers protesting SS cuts.

 

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Monday1929
Monday1929's picture

Exactly. That is why I fear that if the Rule of Law is not restored, veterans who have lost homes and jobs and feel that the System they risked life and limb for has failed them, will decide to target leading bankers for assassination.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 22:23 | Link to Comment crzyhun
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Tour de force!! Leaves gross in the dust!

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 13:22 | Link to Comment ndspg
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Excellent!

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