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Democratic Stocks (And Bonds) Surge On Confirmation Central Planning Works
No longer in the twilight zone, the market is now democratic beyond reproach: of the idiots, for the idiots, by the idiots. The 10 Year is at 2.81% and refuses to budge as stocks explode. The catalyst - consumer credit, which came in slightly better than the expected trouncing even as the key source is revealed to be... entirely the Federal Government! In other words, forget Kremlin Joe: central planning works. Oh, and the Double DIP-ression is once again fully priced in.
Note the 10 year-ES divergence. At this point this is a given.
And below is the main change in consumer credit holders in Q2. The main one has been highlighted. (source: the Cave Of Ali Bernbaba and the 40 Wall Street Thieves)
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Anything short of a nuclear strike to all of the US Treasury's printing presses and the market will continue to be bailed out by the U.S. taxpayer..
Who is this mythical US taxpayer that is apparently paying for everything?
I read about this person in National Enquirer... They had pics of him, but he kept covering his face with his arms so if you spot him or know his true identity, enquiring minds want to know. I should note that in all the pics, Oksana Grigorieva was accompanying this person, too..
http://www.wired.com/images/article/full/2007/08/loch_ness_monster_580x.jpg
http://www.mediabistro.com/prnewser/original/patterson_bigfoot.jpg
I dont know who this so-called 'taxpayer' is, everyone keeps saying he's the one who keeps paying for everything, this guy must be one rich bastard!
He doesn't exist yet. Approximately 25 generations from now will pay off the current money being spent. You know if the country still exists, doesn't default, etc. etc.
Everything is pay as you go
Yankee doodles,no?
Stupid Small Business Owner...me
Send a check once a month...Sometimes more!!!
Isn't that the truth. The game is totally tilted towards the large corporate farcists.
The melt-up only makes sense under one condition (unless manipulated by the PPT) - expectation of inflation.
The Treasury doesn't coin money.
That would be constitutional and the apparatus a long time ago decided that constitutional governance was an antiquated concept.
Could you explain your reference to "constitutional?" What exactly is a "constitution?"
Greenshit put it bluntly saying that pushing financial markets would facilitate an economic recovery in the USA.
People refuse to understand that the present world economic situation is very different from what took place in 1930s.
Then,
Now,
Consequently, not obvious decoupling of the economic situation in America and EU and their financial markets is very easily explained since highly productive and successful American and EU companies have plenty room to make and grow productive profits trading with .
Aha,
countries under the 'Free Banks' policies mired in depression during 1930's
while those under nationalised banks progressed- Japan, germany and russia
Come 2000's
Countries under banks bogged by quadrillion derivatives sagged while some of them like brazil,India sail smoothly
[Reserve Bank of India strictly controlled derivative exposure of Indian banks came out unscathed- Zero stimulus, 9% growth likely due to 60 years of suppressed growth]
Looks like a puppet show with invisible puppeteers
Wait, I dont understand this. You mean the Fed Gov is racking up credit card debt too?!
This market is just amazing... with vix less than 22 and this roller coasters moves... I am just laughing because I really hate to buy straddles (I feel like I am cheating) but they have been working great specially with the SPY having options expiration every Friday. Today I covered my GLD short at a lose and continue to be long JPY.
Can't wait to short AUD/USD in the near future.... although I will prefer if I can short the shit out of the EUR/USD .... but I guess we have to wait until the dead cat stops the bouncing...
Whatever the reason; whoever the buyers, this market just can't seem to fall. Not quite green so I guess that will have to wait until Monday.
FREEFALL Credit Union - Beavis and Butt head
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ary3nkZQeJc
just another friday where late day activity suggests be prepared for up 10-15 handles on futures come 6am ny time monday.
Agreed. I watched the bastard start climbing from 143 down an hour before the close...and watched...and watched and was too dumb-F-struck by the charade to even jump in for a TNA EOD scalp.
When everybody is in on the deal then of course the rest of us are left out of the deal...
Something wicked this way comes and the fun thing about it..."they" aren't expecting it...
Give it 2 weeks...
you're making me feel a little better Rob... but JUST a little.
This market is sickening, the market is supposed to be a place for buyers and sellers to trade ownership stakes in companies, not as a political tool manipulated by government at the cost of everyone involved in the market - they would say its for the benefit of the country, just like torturing is illegal, but hey if its for our benefit then what the hell.
Hypocrisy is so fun though, especially as we preach the benefits of free markets, as if we have one ourselves...
'Free market', man hillarious! Stalins Russia had more of a free market.
BTW the Nov elections will never happen, theyll see theres no way out of the polling carnage and order a few of the nukes smuggled in across the border to be set off coast to coast.
Its gonna be a wild ride, enjoy the last couple of weeks of the 'good ol times' as theyll soon be remembered by the few survivors.
Sweet! Finally a doomsdayer who actually puts a date on the impending "apocalypse".
Looking forward to voting in November!
+1
November 2nd...Isn't that the Day of the Dead?
i sure hate conspiracy theories but i can't help to think about what it took for the old guard in washington to be able to pass the PATRIOT Act under the radar.
i probably shouldn't even be writing this. i'm trying to play golf at bethpage in the morning but i have a feeling i'll be hauled off in my sleep, never to be heard from again (and my lousy golf game never to be seen again).
pour one out in my honor, ZH.
+100.
The market is supposed to have sellers and buyers. If all asset prices are bloated, I don't won't to buy. I know PG,APPLE,MSFT whatever are all overbought and expensive.
I would like to buy low, where the value and the %^&*() INVESTMENT comes into play. Then I would buy and hold.
If the PPT keeps gunning the market, the buyers are just trading in and out(if there are any.) Outflows to cash are at a high so it makes NO sense that the stock market can run at an RSI of 70 with a PE of 10 billion and no dividends. PLUS, all these great companies earnings are backdropped by excessive corp bond floats.
I think its time to give up on getting value and hence giving up on the stock market and bonds. We are in the initial stages of a fullblown control economy where asset prices are determined by the collective brainlessness of the administration and the asset holding banking class. We know this ends badly: see Soviet Union.
The FED thinks they can sheep people into pretending things are great and jumpstarting the consumer ponzi credit scheme again.
They are getting better and better at controlling asset prices with lowering participation.
Unfortunately for them, more and more people understand that everything is a big fake out.DOOMMETER=8
Hence the low vol ramps and the high vol dumps.
Don't you see we have reached the point of no return? Nothing matters anymore because everything is a lie. When you have fucked up this badly it might be best to continue to hoodwink those who still have their head buried in the sand as long as you can?
They got Maobama credik cards too now on top of the free Maobama cellie phones? WOW! Vat a country!
source: the Cave Of Ali Bernbaba and the 40 Wall Street Thieves)
LOL!
My brokers chat room was laughing today as the ppt came in with the usual save. Green till November!
You can't have a freefalling September/October without an irrational light-volume levitation act in July/August. Just remember that. The market is geared to deceive, just like in 2000. Look at that year as the analogue to what's happening now.
The market peaked in March 2000, and started acting wildly and nervously in April/May......by summer, things had stabilized and the NAZ actually got back above 4,000 by Labor Day. Then all hell broke loose, and the free-fall didn't end until the final hanging chads were examined by late December.
Patience. This detached market will make everyone feel like idiots if given enough time.
+ 1 Patience Grasshopper. Anger is but a weapon for one's enemies.
Why wait? I feel like an idiot right now! ;-)
Or it's like summer 2008.
Party like it's 1929!
SCOTCH!!! STAT!!
True dat. Let it leviate, then collapse in the fall to prevent anyone from getting any funny ideas about changing drivers in the middle of a multi-vehicle accident.
How much is too much?
A very good week, taking profits on all my scalps, and will never get hurt on closed end funds bought only at good discount, sold COP, RMD(before today's bloodbath) and T all one day early, leaving 2-3% on the table is best strategy.
Added SRV- 22.5cent dividend coming up, good energy MLP basket for those wanting yield.
GLTA
Market won't fall for two reasons, one short term one long term.
First the short term reason: The Bernanke Put. As soon as the sugar from the 2008-9 bailouts ran thin this spring, the market running on fumes began to sputter. So the Fed governors (including the most hawkish) began hawking QE2 and mortgage refi packages. The gloomier the economic news, the better the chance we'll get a juicy pack of smack from Ben.
Now the long term reason: Socialism. Or more precisely, socialized risk without socialized profits. First it was banks that were TBTF, then Wall Street firms, insurance companies, regional banks, the Residential Real Estate Sector, home builders, auto makers, RV manufacturers, health insurers and who knows? Maybe casinos. So losses have been socialized. Profits, however, and even pay packages can't be clawed back. Market can't lose under those conditions. If any large company gets into trouble, you can be sure there's a friendly face in Congress and the White House ready to serve them 24/7.
What we have is a National-Level Put. Nobody can fail. All must receive bailouts.
Why is it that the Bernankie put only works when I am short and never when I am long?
Wouldn't a more likely story just be people closing out their shorts before the weekend?
Afraid to leave shorts on more like it. If you cant leave a short running after today then little old me even begins to wonder. I dont wonder that much to be honest, all i do is keep my finger on the bid...
How many shorts do you think still is in the market after the "PPT-HFT-Bulls" July-rally? Has the comments of this board been inflated, by some administration wanka's? Should ZH maybe make the task to be included a little bit harder!!
No one is bigger than the market, not even the new ice cream maker Ben & Timmys with the new hit "Fake Gold Flakes and a lot of New Dough" comes green n' rusty.
Capitulation used to be the term on the downside, but we are closing in..
Yes, probably ringing the register on all those profitable short positions established over the past couple of weeks.
gimme a break
Why do you guys torture yourselves? The game plan has not changed: reflate risk assets, hoping it will cause mild inflation. Keep buying them dips and for pete's sake, stop fighting the Fed and the prop desks!
This is very true. Sit on your fat fingers if nothing else. (Did I just type that?)
You can fight amounst yourselves but don't fight the tape. It is not a financially viable scenario.
The key, of course, is knowing when to fold up the tent and skedaddle for the hills.
I certainly don't have an answer for that but with the concentration of power (APPL 20% of the nazzie) in just a few select stocks, it is looking a lot like 1985.
Be careful out there. They are taking no prisoners.
This is not the time to fight, But I will fight the FED after the mid-term election Dec 2010.
Please Leo, keep saying buy the dips for the rest of the year. What will it take for you to realize that the reflation of assets wont happen, it can happen short term and thats fine if your not too leveraged, and I imagine you are not using leverage as you manage to time your dip-buying so well.
Keep buy buy buy the dips.... After that you can hope to dip a chip if your lucky.
Upon analysis, you will find a difference of opinion largely divided between short / long time frames. Leo and JB are extremely short time frame peeps, that is all you need to know. You are the guy who sees 1/2 mile ahead that there is a car accident and you start to slow, they are the fellas who are all up in your ass-pipe gunning and braking, gunning and braking. You can tell them that to speed up only to brake faster is ludicrous (and I don't mean the rapper), but they will refuse to listen. It's not in their nature to listen. Here endeth the lesson.
Holding short over the weekend is suicide, especially after propjob, and you guys have forgotten the RepubliCons are going to win by showing and protesting the entire stimulus was a waste, no more bailouts and fiscal austerity, they will gain in Nov, and want reality to hit market, the worse the better for them.
You just drank the kool aid. Hope you did not lose too much. Yet, it does seem like from Friday morning until the close on Monday they almost alway ramp the Market. I do not know why.
I mean why are shorts afraid to hold over the weekend. Why would longs not be equally afraid? Really why do shorts always cover on Friday?
Anyone have the answer?
Fuck it, I am short over the weekend.
I know there are plenty here who like to toss turds on the shiny, but what else is there that makes anyone comfortable owning. The system is so gamed, commodities are the only place where I feel comfortable holding a position, and it is a tenuous comfort at that. The rest of the markets are for daily "entertainment" only at this point.
I see a definite rising wedge pattern occurring on the ES per the hourly chart starting from 7/5. The wedge range is slowly but surely choking the market. We could see some fireworks here real soon. I'm not so sure it's the PPT buying in the afternoons. It could be just retail Joe's "buying the dips" which would make sense with the low volume. There's a noticeable declining trend in volume with a continual increase in price which tells me it's a head fake/pump and dump where the retail investor is bailing out the fund managers and will ultimately get disintegrated on a big distribution day. A lot of funds got killed on the first few legs down and they are able to make some profits back with these pump and dumps. We've seen this occur in January and then again in April of this year. The same thing appears to be happening right now.
But all I have here is Bourbon!
what the fuck was that we saw in the last moments of trading........every week i find commentators saying "Bulls have taken charge " ...." Bears have taken charge " ...thats all nonsense...........do they want me to think that on some shitty "good" news the investors poured in billions of dollars and the markets went up VERTICALLY like that .,.....this is nonsense.......now theres nothing called support, resistance, overbought oversold, no patterns, ..............only the machines gaming.....so the movies like TERMINATOR and MATRIX are really true and not some futuristic science fiction
I, like many others here have been watching their selected markets for a long time. Even though I'm net short I didn't like the fall on Friday's intraday Dow chart. After staring at tick-by-tick and short timeframe charts for a while, you get a feel for the dynamics of up and down moves.
What disturbs me on both sides, meltdowns and meltups, is the "A directly to B" movement that we've been seeing lately. It is like ancient vector art in a arcade game. MUST MAKE 'W' SO CONNECT DOT-TO-DOT, DONE. Not the classic step-and-fill or the waterfall formations you've seen in the past.
I don't have much in the way of 'evidence' but just my anecdotal observations of the indexes over time.
Am I nuts? Or are we just seeing the fundamental structure of the market changing before our eyes for whatever reason? (The unspoken question of course is - enough of a change to ruin the damn thing forever?)
Weekend rambler, out.
Trader T: Likely too late for you to see this with all the new posts but yes. I too have tracked the tick by tick market for years and something is different. The difference is difficult to put into words. HFT? Perhaps. In fact likely the result of HFT. When I watch the tick by tick of any highly traded stock the movment stinks of a randomized computer game. No rhyme, no reason...just random erratic jumps. Trading is not much fun anymore, nor is trading (for me) as lucrative as once it was.
SheHunter: Appreciate the reply and comments. I think the rate of change in prices is the 'tell' on algorithmic trading saturating the market. At least above levels we've seen. I suppose this is where I need to apply my own smart-ass comments to myself, years later.
"Adapt or die". Guess I didn't anticipate seeing it change *this* much where I'd be in that position. It will all end in tears, or empty accounts - if I can't learn the new dynamics fast enough.
Good luck to us all.