On The Descent Into A Weimar Reality

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Tue, 06/01/2010 - 19:19 | 388141 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

The government cheese must flow, come on now, been living on a military base my whole life, thought yall knew this.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 19:22 | 388146 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Rather simplistic.  If you want some fine detail...

http://www.nowandfutures.com/us_weimar.html

A link to charts is at the bottom.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 22:43 | 388518 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

Thousands of Austrians have been reduced during the last days to beggary. All who were not clever enough to hoard the forbidden stable currencies or gold have, without exception, suffered losses. An old married couple with whom I have been friendly for years had a holding of government stock amounting to 2 million pre-war kronen which brought them in interest 80,000 pre-war kronen a year [more than £3,200]. They were rich people. Today their stock brings them in 8 new schillings a year. Panic has seized the Stock Exchange. My millions have dwindled to about a thousand new schillings. We belong to the new poor.

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 06:36 | 388959 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Bookmark it Danno

thx

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 19:24 | 388151 Pat Hand
Pat Hand's picture

"It is not a far stretch..."

whew.  yes, in fact, it is.   Each of the three is a significant stretch.  It doesn't look like any of them are present.

I am willing to wager large sums (and in fact, am wagering such) that "Weimar" is not remotely the right analogy.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 21:19 | 388361 whacked
whacked's picture

+1

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 19:25 | 388152 APC
APC's picture

LOL.  Lets get through the debt deflation first, shall we?

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 19:30 | 388162 APC
APC's picture

Sorry, a little simplistic.  Inflation is not the major threat here.  And I say threat.  We're not really threatened, but are actually in, a deflation.  Mild as it may seem now, its going to get brutal before long.  IT HAS TO.

 

We'll see what the politicos can pull out their asses after that, but we do have to go through a deflationary period before ANYTHING else can occur.  Hyperinflation?  Perhaps.  Maybe even war.  But DEFLATION first.  Keep that in mind when you're thinking bout bying gold.  May be best to wait on that decision.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 19:37 | 388174 tmosley
tmosley's picture

We already had deflation in gold.  Remember the big drop down to $700?  That's probably not going to happen again.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 19:49 | 388193 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Gold was up $25 on the day of the flash crash.

 

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 20:07 | 388234 timhinchliff
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Your thinking of gold as an inflation hedge which it isn't strictly. Its THE safe haven. It is difficult to get more of it. It will maintain some sort of value integrity regardless of what happens. If we descend into deflationary or inflationary chaos someone, somewhere will take your gold either way.

I would be very reluctant to make that comment about any of the fiat currencies.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 21:24 | 388371 Pat Hand
Pat Hand's picture

Yes.  Gold is not an investment, but it's a good store of wealth.  I.e. it's money.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 21:43 | 388406 Kimo
Kimo's picture

Unfortunately, ZIRP has morphed Gold's store-of-wealth into a store-of-leverage nightmare. Margin call anyone?

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 00:07 | 388675 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Gold is simply a static store of wealth, primarily due to its unique characteristics that make it a good form of money - as in a proxy/alternative to bartering for actual goods.  Its done this for thousands of years for a reason.  Deflation or inflation is irrelevant with respect to gold - look at its peformance in previous deflationary periods.

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 00:03 | 388671 Al Huxley
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Hyperinflation is the currency crisis that follows credit deflation.  Without the hyperinflation phase, those who got out of debt and accumulated USD would be disproportionately rewarded simply for hoarding a worthless currency.  The BIG picture is about rebalancing, transferring wealth from the rentiers to the producers.  This is not new, has happened repeatedly over the last 1000 years.

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 00:10 | 388681 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

And by the way, if you don't get it, you don't get it.  That's fine.  You'll figure it out in the fairly near term, one way or the other, based on the way things are going.  I've never understood the implicit altruistic impulse of goldbugs who try to convince others that 'gold is money'.  If what they say is true (and I believe it is), they don't need to convince anybody, just wait for the inevitable to assert itself.  Why try so hard to 'save' the non-believers?

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 02:56 | 388850 Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

correct

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 22:41 | 390987 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

Yup...<smile>

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 04:10 | 388889 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

So your final analysis is: rentiers will get done and producers will be winners?

 

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 08:57 | 389074 Ted Smoothie
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Under normal market forces, you're right about deflation. Inflationary bubble followed by deflationary recession. But the Gov't/Fed, besides creating huge moral hazard, are pumping trillions of dollars, in classic Keynesian fashion,  into the economy in the forms of bailouts, stimuluses, cash for clunkers, home buyer's tax credit, quantitative easing, and near 0% rate at the discount window, in order to bypass the deflationary period.  So whatever deflation has happened by this point (real estate and autos are the only examples i can think of) is about it.  Inflation is coming, and it will hit us like a ton of bricks. Holders of only paper (cash, stocks, bonds, ETFs, etc.) are going to get crushed, IMO.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 21:59 | 388434 Kimo
Kimo's picture

Agreed.

Deflation is not finished until "extend and pretend" has become "realize and weep". Then take your cash and buy gold if you wish.

Look for inflation when you are rushing out to buy a house again.

Look for hyperinflation when it is easy to job jump to keep up with the Jones.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 19:29 | 388160 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

The tea partiers have more in common cause with the posters on ZH than with anyone around:  a) they hate the government as it is being run for the benefit of the elites; b) they hate the MSM; c) they distrust almost any government program instituted for "the good of the people"; and d) they have this notion that people should actually work for a living. 

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 19:50 | 388196 Fred123
Fred123's picture

Typical leftist comment. Ignorance is a common trait of your breed eh?

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 23:15 | 388584 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

That's supposed to be leftist? You must sit to the far right of Jefferson at the dinner table I guess.

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 01:57 | 388803 Fred123
Fred123's picture

The comment I had replied to has been removed.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 20:09 | 388236 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

You may be right.  Unfortunately, that is what the great unwashed of America are all about regardless of political stripe.  You have likely seen the various youtube videos where people get asked a simple question (name a country that starts with the letter "u") and can't answer (one answer was "Europe").  The votes of all these very same morons count every bit as much as yours or mine-whether they belong to the Tea Party or not. I don't see many people walking the streets these days claiming superior inteligence for having voted for Obama.  

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 20:52 | 388305 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

APC said: "Oh, and by and large, they're morons too."

Mitchman said: "You may be right.  Unfortunately, that is what the great unwashed of America are all about regardless of political stripe."

You know what?  47% of Americans didn't pay any income taxes last year.  That's not us; we work, and actually support ourselves.  You can call us morons or the great unwashed if that makes you feel superior, but let's be clear: I understand exactly what you mean, and I'll remember it.  I'm really fucking tired of attitudes like yours.  Really, unimaginably tired of it.

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 00:37 | 388717 terrible
terrible's picture

Medically, this is known as moron-fatigue.  

That is, a minor form of fatigue caused by discussion with morons that support tax increases and a more powerful system of wealth redistribution.

 

 

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 01:36 | 388788 APC
APC's picture

Hey, you remember it!  Lol.

 

Vote Sarah!

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 15:04 | 390097 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics...

Forty-six percent (46%) of U.S. voters say the Tea Party movement is good for the country, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Thirty-one percent (31%) disagree and say it’s bad for the country. Another 13% say it’s neither.

But just 16% of voters say they are actually members of the so-called Tea Party, a loose knit group of Americans nationwide protesting big government and high taxes. This is down eight points from a month ago  and but little changed from two months ago.  The spike in identification with the Tea Party followed passage of the health care law. Most voters continue to favor repeal of that law.

The Tea Party is definitely not a Political Class phenomenon, though.  Not a single Political Class respondent in the survey said they’re a member of the Tea Party, but five percent (5%) confessed that they have close friends or relatives who are.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of the Political Class say the Tea Party is bad for America. Two-thirds (66%) of Mainstream Americans see it as a good thing for the country. However, it’s important to note that only a little more than half of all Mainstream voters consider themselves to be part of the Tea Party movement.

But the Tea Party movement defies easy description. Rasmussen Reports surveying, however, provides some glimpses into the movement, including the overwhelming beliefs among its members that the federal government is a special interest group and that government and big business work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors.

So, which part of this do you disagree with?

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 23:58 | 388665 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

It may be true that good old boys in the South still think that Modigliani and Botticceli are just fancy pizza toppings, but when the government starts messing arround with high taxes and their guns, they have the guts to take their country back.

What are you gonna do about it?

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 22:47 | 390996 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

> Mitchman #388236

Ha Ha Haa

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 20:10 | 388240 Teaser
Teaser's picture

Pot

Kettle

'Nuff said

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 19:34 | 388171 RottingDollar
RottingDollar's picture

I'll add your version of a Tea Partier to the 100 other different versions.  

2012 will prove interesting as all the splintered groups try to find a common voice.   Both parties in trouble. 

 

 

 

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 20:05 | 388232 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

As we saw in financial "reform", both parties deserve to be in trouble.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 20:49 | 388298 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

I would like to see how much the TeaPartiers would like to get rid of all those government programs that take care of thier elderly parents and relative.

 

Yes, let us get rid of Social Security.

 

Yes, let us get rid of Medicare.

 

And now, let us foist your elderly relatives back on you to care for in their remaining days.

You will have to provide the funds that the evil government used to provide through SS and MC.

 

Are you up to it?

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 20:59 | 388323 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I already do it for mine.  With no support from any government programs.

The "government" didn't provide shit.  They take money from workers to pay retirees.  Without having to pay those taxes, most people would come out ahead.  In any case, Ron Paul and his cardre aren't for simply repealing those programs.  They would fund them by dismantling the military empire until the program could be dismantled without screwing over anyone who was relying on SS.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 21:55 | 388425 Dantzler
Dantzler's picture

Why should I support SS when I'll never see a dime back (I'm under 40) ?

Cut me a check for everything I've paid into it and let's call it even.

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 00:25 | 388697 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I'll never see any SS either, and I'm 54.

Not enough years working for "somebody else".

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 22:01 | 388440 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

I am already caring for them, with some help from SS which they paid for while working.  As to the future of Medicare, etc, it doesn't have one in the long run, regardless of your wishful thinking, absent maximum money printing by Banana Ben. 

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 22:43 | 388519 Tapeworm
Tapeworm's picture

My mother-in-law consumes more per year than I make as an an owner of a business that has a capitalization of more than 120k per employee.

 I am 59 and will likely get nothing from your SS, even after paying the max for two decades. The "tea" factions are for the most part writing off your junk, but want to be left alone in exchange. Your type finds it expedient and satisfying to force the plebeians to pony up to maintain your life choices.

 Your most caustic vitriol is directed at those of us that refuse to play your games of servitude. Leave the exit borders open so that we will no longer sully your paradise on earth.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 23:18 | 388588 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

As it should be. No middleman waste.

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 00:05 | 388673 fearsomepirate
fearsomepirate's picture

I already provide the funds that the government provides through SS and MC.  It's called "FICA taxes."

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 11:04 | 388740 terrible
terrible's picture

Hahaha, when your "evil government" defaults, social security or medicare checks will bounce.  

Both sets of my grandparents support aggressive cuts to the ponzi schemes out of love for their family.  

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 07:47 | 388997 UGrev
UGrev's picture

OMG taking care of you parents? GOD FORBID you should ever want to care for the people who raised you. 

I'm all for getting rid of SS and Medicrutch. It will be a struggle for everyone who hasn't saved enough, but it will usher in new generations that understand that there is no free ride anymore.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 20:53 | 388309 Zina
Zina's picture

"they hate the government as it is being run for the benefit of the elites"

In fact, tea partiers have no problem with the elites. The same people who now are tea partiers have never said nothing against the elites between 1950 and 2007. That time, the elites were OK for them...

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 21:03 | 388327 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Amazing that you can speak for 1/3rd of all Americans, and tell them exactly what they have been doing for the last 60 years.

FYI, I, and many others have been fighting the expansion of government for years.  We finally managed to plant a seed that has taken root, and is spreading throughout America.  This movement is the result of a LOT of hard work.

Tue, 06/01/2010 - 21:10 | 388345 Zina
Zina's picture

Where you were when Bush started a war on Iraq that has consumed trillions in taxpayer money?

Specifically, where you were on February, 15, 2003?

I doubt you were there:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5oowxUgG3A

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 00:00 | 388668 Chupacabra
Chupacabra's picture

Zina, many Americans have been fighting US government expansion and the "welfare/warfare state" since the late 1950s and early 1960s, and ever since.  We've just been so wealthy as a country (living off the backs of those who came before us), and had so much accumulated capital and goodwill, that the "bleeding hearts" and big government types have managed to prevail incrementally.  Many of us complained vociferously to our representatives along the way (including the Patriotic Act), and were not fooled by Bush's rhetoric.  Believe me, many of us have been here for a long time, it's just now that the proverbial shit is hitting the fan that peopel are starting to listen.  Americans are by and large good, hardworking, generous people.  We've been co-opted by our government and banksters.  We're trying, man!  :]

Where are you from, Brazil?

Wed, 06/02/2010 - 01:00 | 388756 Imperial Distrust
Imperial Distrust's picture

Bravo to Chupacabra, come to Texas we need more like minded individuals

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