Despite A Crumbling Europe, Goldman Sticks With Its 12 Month $1.55 EURUSD Forecast

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Thu, 11/25/2010 - 12:49 | 754685 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Wow, I didn't think delusions got that massive.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 14:13 | 754809 Double down
Double down's picture

And the cool thing is that it does not matter if they are right.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 20:35 | 755238 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

i think it's outrageous that zerohedge continues to publish bullshit from goldman as if they have some legitimacy. they are a hedge fund, plain and simple, and i think they would screw over anyone they could, to make money. that's what they do, isn't it?

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 01:17 | 755493 Calvin Jones an...
Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle's picture

I don't think you understand.  If ZH is saying that Goldman is saying to go long the Euro, ZH's point is that you should short it.  Basically to do the opposite of whatever Goldman recommends, since that is likely exactly what they are doing.  They aren't adverse to fucking their clients in the ass to make money, after all.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 12:50 | 754686 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Rut roh Raggy

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 12:52 | 754690 irieblue
irieblue's picture

Tyler, you need  a special Goldman analList for these MoFo's that make these counter calls 6 months prior to their collapse. Who in their right mind listens to Goldman these days?

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 13:01 | 754705 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

The Ben Bernank

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 13:16 | 754725 MountainHawk
MountainHawk's picture

+1

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 13:34 | 754759 Prof Gulliver
Prof Gulliver's picture

The Ben Bernank is not in his right mind.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 13:00 | 754704 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

So there are US investors..who what, haven't yet heard that there are other currencies apart from the dollar?...D'ya think he means the Bernanke?

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 13:03 | 754709 gwar5
gwar5's picture

"You can't be Serious!" --John McEnroe

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 02:34 | 755536 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Correction: "You cannot be serious"--the man did not use contractions.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 13:05 | 754710 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

This is fucking bad. Im taking the Jeremiah Johnson route. Ride due west as the sun sets. Turn left at the Rocky Mountains.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 13:05 | 754711 breezer1
breezer1's picture

for all those new to ZH and who haven't secured physical gold/silver yet please feel free to panic buy now. 

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 13:08 | 754713 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

However, our baseline is that sovereign stress abates fairly quickly as otherwise our view of a relatively quick move back up may not materialise.

 

That's a major, major caveat not currently likely in s or m/t.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 13:08 | 754714 AssFire
AssFire's picture

1.20  in two months.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 13:11 | 754718 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

Excellent!  Short the EUR!  and Goldman gives me this for Thanksgiving, that is so sweet of them.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 13:25 | 754745 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

Perhaps someone at the Goldman Sachs knows that QE2.5 may be mostly a Spain (IMF) bailout? It would be one way the Euro would suck less than the USD, no? Does the Fed have an incentive to save or kill the ECB? The method would just be a matter of semantics. It fits the extend and pretend MO to keep them all limping along. Not that anyone at the Goldman Sachs would ever involve themselves in matters of leveraged foreign debt, being that it is still an American commercial bank.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 13:31 | 754754 Amsterdammer
Amsterdammer's picture

However bad the situation in Europe

is, except for 'posterboy'Germany,

oQE1 was a flop, QE2 if you look

at the projections of the FOMC minutes

wwill do close to nothing for the spurring

of the U.S recovery, Treasury yields are standing in the

way of Bernakenstein's plans, and the underlying

'debasement'of the $ could well be gunned

down by the current Congress or the

upcoming one. No one seems to realize

that the scope of QE2 vs. tax incomes ( estimated FY2010 )

at 890 billion $. Pray the guy resings or gets shot down

( per your insightful post on the FED sociopaths )

-seems the only way to stop him-if he wants

to 'kick the can' and do QE3

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 13:35 | 754762 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Thanksgiving at Lloyds house:

http://oi55.tinypic.com/xndamf.jpg

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 14:10 | 754806 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Yee ha, dollar long! May be a good Christmas after all... (only if I can book profits and convert to physical in time. lol)

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 14:23 | 754830 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

for those still in denial...

It will take some time to sink in that Europe's plan is the only way to go,

and that the USA will sooner rather than later will be dragged down

kicking and screaming, down that dreaded path of Austerity.

This will start to sink in soon when taxes go up,cost of living will rise,

and quantitative easing will cause stagflation, with the only real industry left

in the US being "financial services" with the Fed madly buying and selling their own national Debt of 13.7 Trillion or so with a yearly Interest bill of 414 billion and rising!

There is NO OTHER WAY OUT - then to cut SPENDING and cut the US fiscal budget Deficit !

There will probably be a VAT of some kind, taxes will go up in some form,

CPI, cost of Living and Inflation will rise and Austerity will be the only way out.

Still, most Americans are in denial and that is why the spotlight is on Europe and Germany,

who are wise enough to take their bitter medicine.

Soon it will be time to realize that the US fiscal budget is totally unsustainable

and Bond market will alert investors and speculators to that fact soon enough!

Until then the US will continue to live in self-inflicted economical dilution

and self induced destructing Amnesia.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 14:34 | 754850 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Black Friday retail shopping being the most obvious statement of denial and/or insanity.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 15:03 | 754907 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Or AfPak.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 14:48 | 754878 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

I heard oil was going to $200 a barrel a couple of years ago....

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 14:57 | 754897 Money_for_Nothing
Money_for_Nothing's picture

Austerity in the US (government) means domestic manufacturing starts back up. Because no deficit means very little external trade. That is why the globalist are fighting the tea party people. High gasoline prices have the same effect. Cheap energy is required for globalism. If you believe in peak oil then forget global trade unless something like low cost fusion energy becomes viable.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 15:36 | 754949 edotabin
edotabin's picture

What I'm not following is the constant flow of articles contradicting themselves.

Dollar is dead, Euro will break up, Spain is next, Bernanke is nuts, Jp Morgan this and Goldman that........... it doesn't end.

Given this constant contradiction, it is natural for those here to say "physical" as currencies will wind up in the dumpster. Yet some  form of currency is needed. What if the Bancor is introduced and it is only 30 Bancors for an ounce of gold?

On the other hand, I understand the austerity but it too has a tipping point.  You cannot bring an economy to a complete halt by firing everyone and raising all taxes. It becomes counterproductive at some point as there is no wealth to tax.

Anyway, maybe someone's got this figured out.  Any pointers welcome.

 

 

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 00:37 | 755464 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

What if the Bancor is introduced and it is only 30 Bancors for an ounce of gold?

Whaddaya mean "only" 30?  That could be a lot! 

Bread only 6 milibancors.  Milk 8 milibancors/gal.  Yipee!

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 15:16 | 756124 edotabin
edotabin's picture

I suppose what I was eluding to is that with the introduction of a new currency, they will "tell" us that confidence has been restored.

In order for this to happen, this new currency will have to be quite strong, resulting in a severe gold/silver takedown. Granted, it is fabricated

but it doesn't change the fact that this new currency will be stronger against the metals than what the dollar/euro are today.

So whether it is 30 Bancors, 20 Globos, or 5 Galaxies is irrelevant.

Maybe I'm just asking the "magic bullet" question and those who know the answer aren't gonna bother with me and those who don't will just "junk"

this or start screaming gold gold gold gold.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 15:39 | 754951 Akrunner907
Akrunner907's picture

It is nothing more than a recognition of the ongoing race to the bottom for the dollar/euro.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 18:02 | 755139 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

These people are obviously employed for their stupidity.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 19:04 | 755176 Akrunner907
Akrunner907's picture

No, they say or tell you stuff and then bet against what they said.  Talking credit default anlaysis to the Nth level.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 19:53 | 755201 TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

No kidding, when I read this the first thing that came to mind: a research note from Goldman pumping up MCI Worldcom when it was at $100.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 21:55 | 755293 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

My long term indicators continue to warn of serious weakness for the EURO and strength for the Dollar.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 22:18 | 755316 Minion
Minion's picture

Long term trend up, massive, well defined three wave primary from 2006 to 2008.5 then an ABC whipsaw since then......

Dunno, grand.  Elliot wave can conclude only one thing: it's already started the next leg up.  The past 6 months are pretty clear.......

(PRECHTER does not agree with this......)

:D

*edit: the fundamentals are clear:  Europe is going for austerity or bust.  I don't think austerity means a weakening euro, unless the whole train comes off the track.  I know the ZH crowd likes economic carnage, but I just don't see this outcome as very likely.  They've been gunning for a unified Europe for over 40 years.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 22:30 | 755324 Orly
Orly's picture

For a clue, watch the long bottoming trendine on the EURUSD Daily.  The pair is about to jump.  Maybe fifteen pips to go.

USDJPY in the tanker.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 22:38 | 755333 Minion
Minion's picture

Yes the 200 day MA is near.  It's also directly on the 20 month MA, however I'm expecting it to hit some H/S @ 1.32.  Second pullback rarely goes much beyond first peak, in a 5 wave primary move. 

Unless it's an invalid forecasting method.  :D  Still testing.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 22:47 | 755344 Orly
Orly's picture

It is bouncing now off of a very strong support line at this Fibo-level (1.335).  Due to "extraneous" factors (USD printing, Euro stabilising, etc...), the pair may reach the fifty percent retracement from this move down, which is near the 1.352 level.  It may not get there but I think it is going to try real hard.

Good luck!

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 22:52 | 755354 Minion
Minion's picture

How very interesting, the fib 61.8 level is right under it.  Now I see what you were getting at when you suggested I put away the calculator.  :D

I actually sold my TI86 after getting out.  You don't need them on the job.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 00:05 | 755434 Orly
Orly's picture

It would be funny if the trend-lines and Fibonacci retracements converged at the spot of a major move...except it happens a lot.  :D

Yes, put away the calculator and use Fibonacci retraces.  The Japanese swear by them and the British know they do; the Americans say, hey three can play at that game, how about you, Euro?

I don't know whether this is all some self-fulfilling prophecy in action or there are actual forces at work in the universe that we wee humans cannot understand.  I tend to believe the latter.  These lines are mathematical magic.

Take them off the longer time frames- Daily and Weekly.  To see Fibo lines inside of two major Fibo lines, just redraw from line to line and now you have inside Fib retraces.

Just check it out.  I think you'll be amazed at how trades, especially currencies, tend to cluster and bounce around these lines.  The line from 1985 is still valid today, all these years later.  It really is amazing.

Fri, 11/26/2010 - 06:33 | 755612 Paul Thomason
Paul Thomason's picture

I'd have to say I don't agree with this forecast.  Short term and long term it looks a bit delicate.  Having said that on the medium term charts it is still sucking air, but if that goes I don't like it's chances of seeing $1.55 any time soon.  

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