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Detached From Reality Market Hits Escape Velocity On No Volume Whatsoever
The latest market trampoline action on horrendous consumer credit news should be sufficient to get every last sane person out of this illegal, yet fully government endorsed, backdoor gambling operation, or at least those that are stupid enough not to be trading with other people's money. Today marks the most recent long white candlestick on almost record low volume for a ramp day. Note the straight line higher immediately following the consumer credit collapse and the leak that QE2 is coming any minute. Our only question is how bad is the news coming this weekend for the
primary dealers to need to surge the market so high on nothing. Well, that, and also we wonder if after the circus rang the closing bell on the Nasdaq two days ago, whether today the Sicilian mafia will be at the NYSE close.
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I like a comment a trader posted on a message board:
profit takers from yesterday had to buy HIGHER... LOL
oops... sorry
BUY AND HOLD!!!
DOW up 276 yesterday... many figured it would give back HALF that amount today...
DOW up another 120 points today...
who wants to see the TREND continue???
UNCLE SAM thanks all those who take profits and help pay capital gain taxes...
UPWEGO
():-)
Leo, two days does not a trend make. Not much news coming out tomorrow and early into next week. Earnings a bit off timing wise. You might be right, but gloating on a short win streak might just come back on to you...
I am not dumb enough to gloat, and you're right, this could very well be yet another bear market rally, one of many to come. We'll find out soon enough.
This would appear to be the same kind of reaction that we got last year to the much hyped Head and Shoulders of May-July. That reaction took SP from 880 to 1020 on a small H&S formation; by extrapolation the current massive H&S (reaction) move could take SP from 1002.75 to 1225 in short order (25 trading days=Summer Rally). There was no stalls in last year's move.
If we get major stalling before 1137 this time, I suggest that you not buy the next dip and your trading will look like that of a genius.
Leo, I hope you are right about the market direction, since it would profit me greatly. We will see...
no worries, consumers seeking credit will be mulched and fed starving short traders who will ultimatley be needed as fuel for the next great bubble.
The Hal 9000 Bubble
Remember it's the second star to the right and straight on til morning.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRjpna_3pFA&feature=related
Ignore that "tick tock, tick tock" sound. Everything's just fine. Jump on in water. Next to the floating log.
Here's an idea: net bullishness. When selling pressure is very small, and buying pressure is equally small, but slightly larger, can the market rally? Overall, volumes will be down, but the market will rally. The greater the divergence between buyers and sellers, even though small volume, can still lead to dramatic rallies.
All post crash environments have muted buying pressure and panic-like selling pressure that exhausts quickly. Using such a simplistic and false analysis of breadth will lead to bad trades.
Or accumulate stock/futures all day long (on top of longs from yesterday), and the use the last 15 minutes to run through the light offers to move the market 50-60 Dow points, maybe even looking for stops. Used to see people do that in the pits all the time. Now add leverage, extra-special connections to the NYSE computers, and that you can see the order books and positions of all of your prime banking customers. 100/100 trading days in the green!
Us hoboes aint lazy, we spend all day looking for the next meal.
Huh, didn't know 5 states estimated. Again, shows the superficiality of the MSM reporting. Heard seasonals impacted the data too, and another poster made the comment that no company wants to lay people off before a 3 day weekend. Of course, I find the more I "know", the less I understand...
ZH needs to provide us with a PPT indicator so we know when to buy junk before it goes parobolic!
Stocks went up and down in the depression too. Here is how to view the DOW:
The DOW is a proxy for the economy in peoples minds. Even though we have descended into a depression where food stamps replace soup lines and U6 unemployment is now getting within 5% or 6% of depression levels, we are constantly bombarded with the DOW on the radio, TV, web sites, etc, as a check on 'your money'. The DOW went up and down in the 30s too but it was not front and center in our culture.
The average joe not understand these markets are designed to pump up banks via HFT, etc. They think the DOW going up or at least staying level means that things are 'really OK' or can come back.
The MSM has replaced people like Huey Long and Father Coughlin with group-think. The Tea Party clings to an Ayn Rand conservative philosophy that just wants to take us back to Reagan. The current administration and congress sees an opportunity for expanded government opportunity in every crisis, and manages each one with supreme incompetence and ineffectiveness. The sides could not be more far apart or more wrong, and the 'center' is equally wrong. We don't need a Tea Party we need a Reali-Tea party. The reality is we are broke and trapped in a crony capitalist/crony socialist system.
The DOW is the icon of a materialistic culture on the brink. Its manipulation is now of supreme importance as we slide over that brink. View it as such, and you will not drive yourself insane over its twisted manipulations.
ex VRWC
This is probably a pretty accurate view of the world as we know it. Another argument for this is every increasing Beta of every stock on the exchange. They are so correlated that my screen is either all red or all green on a day where nothing happens (I keep my inverses on another screen)
The assumption that the market is supposed to move with the economy (assuming faulty econometric numbers actually describe it properly) and is supposed to react in tandem with positive or negative news, is laughable.
Oh ho if the market were that easy!!
Fed released horrendous consumer credit report at 3PM
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/
Market takes off at 3:12PM, headline reading algos need improvement
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#symbol=%5EGSPC;range=1d
But of course new jobless claims were “better than expected” at 454K, “dropped sharply” after previous report was once again “revised up” to 475K. Downward trend below
01/02/2010 456,000
01/09/2010 470,000
01/16/2010 489,000
01/23/2010 476,000
01/30/2010 490,000
02/06/2010 439,000
02/13/2010 479,000
02/20/2010 486,000
02/27/2010 466,000
03/06/2010 451,000
03/13/2010 454,000
03/20/2010 445,000
03/27/2010 442,000
04/03/2010 463,000
04/10/2010 480,000
04/17/2010 459,000
04/24/2010 451,000
05/01/2010 446,000
05/08/2010 446,000
05/15/2010 474,000
05/22/2010 463,000
05/29/2010 459,000
06/05/2010 459,000
06/12/2010 476,000
06/19/2010 459,000
06/26/2010 475,000
07/03/2010 454,000 (pre-upward adjust)
I check in on a permabull blog who posts his es trades during the week when he makes them. He was screaming correctly at 1005 the bottom is in place going to 1275 this year. Don't know about 1275, but guess how many handles he nailed on this deity-esque 3 day ramp job???
ZERO. Even today he tried to get long but folded with a zero day before the final ramp up.
He is a permabull but could not get a single long entry during a 70 handle 3 day upchuck!!!! SKYNET, will you marry me?
(of course he claims to be holding a long term long position from 850 or so how ever long ago that was, but it's amazing how he gets churned with vertical moves! My god, if I were him I'd be crying harder than a stopped short.)
I like it more when stocks collapse on no volume.... more real than when they rally on no volume
TYLER, WHY DO YOU SAY THIS WEEKEND??? (please dont tell me its the total eclipse... or, if its that, please go ahead and post something on the influence of the occult calendar on market action...).
this weekend, bp's 'relief well' manages to destabilize the ocean floor causing a massive methane explosion, causing tidal waves across florida??
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