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Detailed Look At TIC Flows: August Treasury Purchases By China, Japan And UK Drop To Lowest Total Year To Date

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The most convoluted monthly report issued by the US Treasury, that of Treasury International Capital (TIC) flows was released on Friday, and it disclosed some troubling data points. While foreigners overall continued purchasing domestic assets, their appetite continues to decline. In particular foreigners increased their purchases of Treasuries marginally, while they continued selling off corporate bonds and agencies, while buying corporate stocks. Yet, most troublingly, the Big 3 (China, Japan and the UK) purchased the least net total of Bonds and Bills year to date: as the Fed now dominates the market for Treasuries, traditional buyers are becoming increasingly nervous.

In summary:

  • $23.9 billion of Treasury Bonds and Bills were acquired in August, a decline from $31.1 billion in July and $100.5 billion June. 
  • GSE holdings continued declining - it appears only the Fed has any desire to hold on to that toxic trash these days: $5.3 billion was sold in August, after $17.8 billion was sold in July and $8.6 billion was sold in June.
  • Corporate bonds same story: $11.7 billion sold in August, after $20.5 billion was sold in July and $6.8 billion in June
  • Equities continue being the only capital flow bright spot: desire for Fed sponsored risk is still rampant although much subdued: $17.3 billion was bought in August, after $21.4 billion was purchased in July and $104.2 in June.

In the red flag category, China reduced its holdings of US Treasuries from $800 billion to $797 billion. In August Mainland China purchased $15.4 billion of UST Bonds and sold $18.8 billion of UST Bills, for a net sale of $3.3 billion. The other two big purchasers, Japan and the UK, increased their holdings by $6.5 billion and $4.5 billion, respectively (more below).

Also notable is the continued increase of near-term UST Bill holdings by foreigners: even though August saw a nominal sale of Bills of $2.5 billion (compared to a $14.2 billion increase in July), the amount of Bills in UST holdings has nearly doubled to 25% from a pre-crisis average of 10-15%.

We present a more detailed look at Long-term (Bond) and Short-term (Bill) Treasury holdings by the Big 3 foreign purchasers: China, UK and Japan. The chart below presents the total UST purchases/dispositions by the Big 3 broken down by Long-Term and Short-Term:

Isolating merely the LT component, shows the dramatic spike in June purchases when it seemed that the market may finally succumb to what everyone then thought was a head and shoulders formation, or perhaps, and more accurately, deflation, as most foreigners jumped at the chance of extending their long-dated holdings. While we have not overlaid the rampant purchases by the Federal Reserve on this chart, it is obvious that even as 30 Year On The Run quoted yields have persisted high at over 4%, Big 3 purchases of LT Bonds have moderated, and continue to be in the $25 billion ballpark.

The chart of Near-Term UST purchases shows the dramatic volatility in Bill holdings by the Big 3. In this category, the UK and Japan are practically meaningless, with China dominating all the Bill flow. The China series took an unprecedented dive in June when China sold over $50 billion in short-dated USTs. The most recent data demonstrates that China is once again offloading Bills, this time almost $20 billion. Also on the chart is the Bond Equivalent Yield of 13-Week On The Runs, which at 0.13% in August is dangerously close to the lowest for the year, and lowest of all time. Therefore the only motivation to park money in Bills continues to be as a safeguard from Long-Dated disruptions, the possibility of inflation, market liquidity considerations, and, of course, as a way to avoid purchasing gold.

Putting all this together, and superimposing all the Big 3's purchases across the curve, and we see why the Federal Reserve should be concerned: in August the traditionally biggest purchasers of US Treasuries purchased a net YTD low of just $7.6 billion. Compare this to the $42 billion purchased in July and $55 billion in June.

The reason for this purchasing skepticism: the Fed's blatant tampering with the Treasury market. The largest UST customers now longer want a piece of the action, or if they do, it is a constantly declining one. Furthermore as we have pointed out, as September saw an unprecedented pick up in POMO repurchases, it is unlikely that foreigners restored any of their trust in the UST market. If August is any indication, September results (released in mid-November) will likely demonstrate a muted pick up in Bills, a reduction in UST Bond interest, with mortgages and corporate bonds being in the penalty box. The only question mark is whether the September equity action will have seen (been driven by) more foreign participation.

 

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Sun, 10/18/2009 - 21:20 | 102995 Carina
Carina's picture

Treasuries Show No Lost Appetite With Zero Dollar Returns:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6LFzbBpxVC0

Sun, 10/18/2009 - 21:24 | 102996 NoBull1994
NoBull1994's picture

Buy TBT calls.  Make money.

Sun, 10/18/2009 - 21:56 | 103022 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

One may also surmise that these central banks will have the inside line on any future policy shifts, and therefore are adjusting their positions accordingly.

Sun, 10/18/2009 - 22:02 | 103024 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

The increase in exposure to the long end at the expense of the short by China does not compute.

On a different note I wouldn't be too suprised by a complete bust in foreign treasry purchases by the end of the year. All part of the master plan to destroy the dollar with a little help from our friends. Selling long dated treasuries and buy stocks would seem like the most rational move for all players involved if this develops. But what do I know.

Mon, 10/19/2009 - 01:08 | 103117 FischerBlack
FischerBlack's picture

The increase in exposure to the long end at the expense of the short by China does not compute.

They have some big commodity positions going which can be thought of as dollar bearish and since buying the long end of USTs is dollar bullish, there might be some re-positioning of hedges going on. In isolation, though, their bid on the long end seems to be like doubling-down on US deflation, and a vote of no-confidence in Ben.  

Sun, 10/18/2009 - 22:07 | 103027 P Kennedy
P Kennedy's picture

Sounds rational - why try to outbid Ben?

Its odd, China's movement out of Tbills into Tbonds. Watching the movement out of GSEs looked like positioning / leverage. So... that theory goes to the back burner?

Sun, 10/18/2009 - 22:16 | 103034 Rama V
Rama V's picture

Oddly, SSE diverges and falls in concert with Asia bourses.

Sun, 10/18/2009 - 23:56 | 103083 defender
defender's picture

Strange how there is a sudden pick up in treasury purchases at the exact same point that there is a drop in agencies in that first graph.  Seems that the treasuries for agencies program is working quite well.

Mon, 10/19/2009 - 10:30 | 103269 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Look at this and you see that UK, Japan and Hong Kong are the only ones with significant increases. The others are flat.

Hong Kong has a dollar peg. If people see the dollar weakening they go to HK$ hoping the peg will be adjusted upward. The Central Bank sells HK and buys $s at the peg. So they get a flood of dollars. They invest this in only Short Term stuff. This is hot money. It will leave when the pressure is off. (a revaluation of HK$)

Japan has the same problem. This is about currency management and not an investment in the US.

UK has dollar liquidity from the Fed. (swap lines) This is showing up as increased holdings. But it is a wash and will be reversed to normal levels.

Net net there is no increase. How are we going to sell $1T a year for the next decade? I don't get it.

Mon, 10/19/2009 - 11:06 | 103321 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Great job, gents, combining the long-term data with the short-term data.

Nice clear analysis, without the Brad Setzer/CFR apologia; thanks!

Mon, 10/19/2009 - 16:18 | 103707 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Please continue with these type of tic posts, ever since brad setser quit blogging I can't find where else for the china and tic analysis.

Tue, 10/20/2009 - 12:25 | 104434 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I don't mean to discount the outrageousness of the Fed's treasury purchasing, but a major reason Chinese treasury purchases are down is that they have fewer dollars available from the shrinking trade imbalance with the US to buy them with.

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