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Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha Goes Permafull Retard, Sees S&P At 1,550 By End Of 2011
It was less than 24 hours ago that we presented the latest 2011 outlook from Deutsche Bank's highly credible Fixed Income group, which had one of the bleakest economic outlooks for 2011, and we quote: "there are so many headwinds to work through, that recovery
is not consistent with premature monetary tightening by either the Fed
or the markets. Fiscal stimulus buys time in 2011 but little else.
Ironically the stronger growth looks, the more likely fiscal tightening
will come into play sooner keeping the recovery on a backfoot. However, in our view, at best this buys some time for recovery. The deficit is huge and meaningful fiscal tightening is not far behind. Even if we dodge the Ricardian bullet of equivalence in 2011, there is at least 1 if not 2 percent of fiscal tightening slated for 2012. If underlying economic growth remains in the 2-3 percent range, there is a sharp slowing implied for 2012." Yet this very rational view does not prevent that other DBer, Binky Chadha, who completely refuses to even cross check memos from other groups in the firm, and who in making even Joe LaVorgna sound credible, comes out with a report which can only be classified as going uberfull retard: "The strategic and tactical cases for US equities should come together to generate strong market returns in 2011 The S&P 500 YE 2011 target remains unchanged at 1550.We estimate $96 in EPS and a fair value multiple of 16.4x. These may look ambitious, but viewed against a Q4 2010 annualized $91.5 our estimate looks modest; a 16.5 multiple was the average in the 1930s. 25% price appreciation would not be atypical for a post-midterm election year, historically the strongest in the election cycle." All we can say is that when clowns take over the insane asylum, the end result is so much better than a hostile take over by lunatics: at least the consequences are so infinitely funnier. To all who believe that EPS can remain at projected levels once margins collapse across the board courtesy of an explosion in input costs should this prediction be even partially correct, all we can suggest is to buy every Cramer stock recommendation without question.
Binky's (not to be confused with Dinky from The Littles) optimism is based on the following 7 "catalysts":
The tactical case rests on 7 catalysts: A strengthening recovery, with jobs growth to pick up and credit growth to resume; positive data surprises; a low earnings bar; cheap multiples; a move toward the center in policy making; asset re-allocation back to equities; and a favorable demand-supply balance.
For everyone who wishes to feel their brain turn to mush, below is the full report.
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Many heads for the Hydra.
Binky and the Brain, Brain, Brain.....
The Trinity is breaking out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NARF!
OK, so this may seem hypocritical for someone who goes by "Turd" but how can anyone take seriously a market prognostication from someone named "Binky"?
I wonder if his Mama calls him that! :)
Binky's last big call was BBY at $44. Oops.
Margins? well downsizing employee staff, and downsizing the debt loads with NEW low interest dbond issues, especially 2011, and downsized competition, bankrupcies etc A&P, but also Lehman, same thing...less competition enables suppliers to POST prices, to a certain extent not yet appreciated....AND then goldman, and JPMorgan doing THEIR PART in keeping supplier wholesale metals prices higher, thereby encouraging a larger permanent supply of metals...the mines remain open..the wholesale can be passed on...just as PROVEN back in early Summer 2008, gasoline retailing at $5/gallon....couldn't be done THEY SAID...oh YAH?
It WAS DONE, and gasoline turned-out to be virtually INELASTIC...$5 made no difference, indeed the HIGHEST demand WAS that very summer of 2008...
Margins? yes, some companies A&P deserve to die, and for them, 'the war is over' end game...other razor-margin companies are learning to apply computerization, decision-support software, and all that...THEY will thrive and survive, in a less competitive enviroment, soon THEY will almost in collusion will SET MARKET PRICES at the retail level...
same computations, same results...THAT IS NOT COLLUSION, no legal action possible...
""The tactical case rests on 7 catalysts: A strengthening recovery, with jobs growth to pick up and credit growth to resume; positive data surprises; a low earnings bar; cheap multiples; a move toward the center in policy making; asset re-allocation back to equities; and a favorable demand-supply balance.""
PermaBULL to Permafrost in 2 weeks.
Does FedEx deliver horse heads? If you are a market bear and receive a package with a FRBNY return address, I suggest you not open it.
+1
"Mr. Bernanke is a man who insists upon hearing bad news immediately."
In his Harvard educated reptilian mind, higher prices = growth, strength, properity. However he forgets, like Greece, the riots here won't be clam...
A tad too much. I'm looking at 1350-1400 but probably closer to the 1350 end of it.
CNBC - All the large banks raising GDP forcast - (2011).
Whole lotta bankstas got a whole lot of trash theyre dying to dump.
Trash? you mean the Goldman conviction list of obsolete business model, obsolete locations/lack of Internet exploitation, lack of effective employee utilization at their highest and best potential (yes, some unions helping prevent this 'exploitation'...remember the 1982 aircraft controllers? incompetent, unwilling to upgrade...all those were fired...
theres a whole lot of junk companies, well known names, fallen angels that will STAY FALLEN...
Only because they're expecting the Fed will continue to help pump the stock market through funny money. In other words, the market has become a Funny Money Gauge, pure and simple. Not about business so much anymore. If the spigot gets turned off, look out below.
Data points from the semiconductor supply chain suggest strong 2011, up >15% in revenue and more than that in volume/units shipped.
This is after concerns there would be a soft December quarter this year.
The supply chain had been holding its breath. After the biggest ever re-stocking of inventory from 3Q09 to 2Q10, there were fears that returns to organic demand growth would be underwhelming. So far demand growth has exceeded expectations.
I would like to understand if the Best Buy miss is a data point that suggests a rethink of 2011 demand, or if it is a loss in market share. If it is a change in the macro demand picture, the semi supply chain will know by the first week of January as Q1 orders get rescheduled.
A couple of points:
1. All of my construction friends (a fair number) have NO work except for a few government jobs. My house building/remodeling friend has never seen it so bad and his family have been in the business for 40 years.
2. Even if BBY is simply a market share thing, then the winners will be AMZN and other online retailers. This will result in a further decline in employment, CRE values, etc. as the big box concept dies a slow death. Higher package shipping represents, IMHO, this online push and not necessarily net growth in economic activity. All of those local retail, especially mom-and-pop, stores will get further and further behind.
3. Semi's might sell well, but they represent in part a push for productivity, i.e. computers replacing labor.
Many of these macro trends will take years to play out, but we have no solution for long-term jobs. The S&P 500 companies will eventually no longer need US employment. We are hollowing out our economy.
YES, that is ALL correct sociologically...
business is not about 'welfare on the job'...if you are an equity market (not bond market) trader, NOW is the best of times to get in....DOW 36000 actually is more than possible but more than likely....Oh, did you ALL, forget JAPAN 1988-1989 ?? Nikki 39,000 which eventually douched a low of what? 8000?
In the USA, yes, from 8000 to 39000 is quite within the possible range, with the help of Gods Workers Goldman/Jpm the Federal Reserve, the European Central bank...and a DESPERATE China, needing MIDDLE CLASS buyers (which no such thing, in quantity exists in China mainland)....
all this will require PERMANENT, secular unemployement and permanent reductions in force in government and residential construction...self evident...we, the World this time is going thru a once in 70 year Creative Destruction, no cyclical recession here, not at all....start RETRAINING, ASAP...
Right thinking, right questions, full acceptance of the PIMCO New Normal
Raising GDP forecast because bonds are selling off, "things must be getting better"...Now all we need is a sell off in gold to sound the all clear for Goldilocks and the three stooges.
.""Now all we need is a sell off in gold to sound the all clear for Goldilocks and the three stooges."
Good THINKING, from your creative unconscious mind...yes, down deep, you KNOW thats what is gonna happen....gold at 3x the mining cost...a fad...Gold will quite probably settle down back to near-cost of production...$500 or so..in maybe less than two years, even 12 months, depending...and no further need of MANIPULATING THE GOLD PRICE, simple 'price discovery' will work just fine, SOON...
Harry, you've NEVER answered me: when's your experiment on us 'permabulls' over? How many avatars do you have?
He's no Harry! He's a James!
And he claims he owns "a little" physical gold.
Harry
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmNeO63xCnU
I will know bear capitulation has occurred when you quit getting junked.
13th Warrior here!
I'm at 1347.5 - on the nose!
I only look at trailing earnings not hopium
Ground Control to Uncle Ben
Ground Control to Uncle Ben ...
From Deutsche Bank's mouth to Bernankes ears. So let it be written, So let it be done. Bernankes on it.
I don't see this as full retard. It all depends on how long the bernak can keep the charade going. If another year, 1550 wouldn't be out of line.
Yup. With the market being a pure Funny Money gauge and not about anticipated earnings, this can go on toward a few end points:
-Nasdaq cracks 2000 highs (good news) but inflation runs 18% (bad news)
-S&P cracks 2,500 (good news) but high input costs force de-listings of big companies every month to be replaced by speculative companies (bad news)
-Stocks get used as scrip for groceries and gasoline (very bad news)
-Social Security savings get invested in stocks as GW Bush suggested, pushing NASDAQ to 10,000 only to crash back to 500 (worse news)
And oil will be 120, and gold will be 1800, and food...
Exactly.
The very survival, not even the growth, of the modern financial system is based on credit expansion and M expansion.
So if they are permabullish, it's not just because they'd like more growth in the future: it's because they cannot do anything else than predicting higher levels of assets, for they own sake.
If Bank of America predicted DOW 4,000 in 2014, they would just be actively digging their own grave.
Likes US equities because expects European flight? Riots in Rome, Paloma and Milan today, UK and Ireland last week, ongoing dust ups in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and warnings in Belgium? Terrorist bombs in Sweden.
But where to go when the riots start in the US? Or will reality shows continue to dull the Americans? Local bank robberies, pepper-sprayed clerks at retail shops while someone steals, and residential break-ins are up up up in the US. Some from desperate need, but most because jails are full, DAs don't have staff to prosecute, and there are more important violent cases taking police and prosecutorial resources.
As long as "Dancing with the Stars" is on there will be no riots.
Ah, yes. Deutsche Bank. I thought this outfit rang a bell, with their "Top 5" industry picks for "Black Friday 2010." Number "1" is certainly called to mind. Thanks for the memories, Binky.
http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/10/11/648009/deuts...
Best Buy their #1 bull pick, too funny.
What if you are wrong?
Very doable IMO. The bears who have been consistently wrong for the last 2 years will be wrong again. Like I've said for months .... DO NOT FIGHT THE FED...period. There are vested interests in blowing every last short out of this market. Until then, UP UP UP we go. The fact that the SPY is now the most shorted security only means the upside has WAY more to go. Until the bears understand that, they have no chance.
Did you miss the move in silver and gold?
pat35 youll have about 14 minutes to escape implosion once Bernank hits the 'contain inflation' switch.
"DO NOT FIGHT THE FED...period."
so- I guess when the Fed was saying that subprime was contained and that there was no housing bubble-
folks should have taken that "as gold" that nothing tragic would happen and stayed fully vested in stocks?
yeah . . .the Fed- they have it all figured out- always reacting after the market says what's up
no doubt in my mind that the Fed will be wondering what the fuck happened when all their little genius policy moves don't end up having the desired effect- higher rates and high employment- what will be their excuse then?
That they're clueless?
SO on a percentage basis that will put silver at...lets seeee....about $5000
So don't these clowns talk to one another? Or is there some trick to this -- like a dollar so weak that 1550 on the S&P in 2011 translates into a loss?
S&P 1550, USD -0-, cheers rang out across the land....
This is exactly the trick; just like the stock market average from 2002 to 2007; even with inflation; no gain. "Growth" is a dead concept, left over from the past; inflation cannot and will not drive the stock market to produce a real gain.
His 7 catalysts are hilarious, the only thing he had to say is "dollar down the shitter, everything else to the moon."
The market is doing the FED proud today and without any POMO money. Imagine that!
Not the bond market.
"there are so many headwinds to work through, that recovery is not consistent with premature monetary tightening by either the Fed or the markets. Fiscal stimulus buys time in 2011 but little else. Ironically the stronger growth looks, the more likely fiscal tightening will come into play sooner keeping the recovery on a backfoot. However, in our view, at best this buys some time for recovery. The deficit is huge and meaningful fiscal tightening is not far behind."
This sounds like something any fully baked Economics 101 student would ramble forth with, at 2:17 a.m., amongst friends, between co-mingled bong hits and shots of Jäger.
What's the problem?
Never go full retard man:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svwGRJA28lY&NR=1
The guy's a clown. They ought to have to publish there historical record of predicting....and believe me....that would stink.
Binky's recent top pick was...BBY....yup.
with a dollop of VECO as an apertif
When is the market fairly valued to these economists...assuming we can break the S&P double top is 2,000 next?
Apparently 'fair value' will be reached when the USD=0, the S&P is 5,000 and gasoline is about $37 a gallon.
I am thinking the dollar will land at .55, gas will be $4.50 and 15,000 DOW. By 2013. Geopolitical risk accelerates sharply from there.
In other words Binky actually looked at a 10 year chart of the SPX, identified the 2000 and 2007 highs at around 1550 (3/2000 - high @ 1552, 10/2007 - close @ 1554), and went to work to derive an earnings estimate and P/E ratio that would justify the index reaching that level once again.
In the midnight hour they cried BUY BUY BUY,,BUY BUY BUY BUY
Be careful ZH on the equity bash, it's too soon to tell if stocks go Zimbabwe on us or Chilean at the moment. It will be, of course, one or the other but so far you've been picking the wrong horse with the money printers.
It's a good point, but if they go Zimbabwe, the ZH crowd's PM's will significantly outperform.
Yeah, that's the important idea. Just stop with the stock market, already; that was okay for your dad, or something; it's not happening anymore. The Zimbabwe stock market went up a bunch, but it was of no use, useless, to people trapped inZimbabwe dollars; it can't out run inflation; silver can, and will.
Yeah, that's the important idea.
It is. But ZH keeps calling for a mauling in equities; it could very well happen. However, while indeed the market has only go up in nominal terms--compared to say, Gold--it may very well keep doing so....making them, look, perhaps as sharp as Rosie on their macro calls.
My advice, just stay away from the equity bashing and if you have to invest in them--do so only as a hedge against the small probablity of being wrong about hyperinflation.
They still haven't pulled retail money in and they are acting more desperate by the day.
"Look, look at how well the POMOized indexes have done! Don't miss out! We promise, we promise there's a lot of room left in the boat for all! Rising bond yields proves Bernanke is the new Greenspan!"
Yep their plan is to resurrect the old bubble madness days...problem is for the FED crew no one has any money now. But its funny watching them day after day pumping to create buying mania that no one is jumping in. Funny.
Do those numbers even mean anything anymore?
I'm pretty far from a bull, and I certainly don't think those numbers are outside the realm of possibility. As others have said, gold will double, triple, or more if we hit that number on the S&P, and many other things will go up in price by similar multiples.
And at the same time as Binky the Bong and the rest of the banking cartel sees equities going to the moon, life is not so rosy for the little people. This time it's italians who show what they think abt the corrupt politicians and the austerity measures they do to keep bankers untouched.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/14/riots-rome-silvio-berlusconi...
Since he is inside a cartel organization, the permabull cheerleader may know something about monetization levels that hasn't been released to the GenPop yet. With sufficient keystroke effort by a lone sexretary working OT at the (not really) Federal (with no) Reserve, his S&P 1,550 FeRN goal could be easily attained, despite the effects of the disastrous fundamentals described by his honest colleague.
Just make sure to hide the $SPX:$silver chart...
The bullish chorus reaches its peak right before a crash
All the bears bullish now, the banks getting ever more ridiculous in their markets to near double calls. Sure sign its all about to end.
If you're gonna go short and you need to make it work, you put out a fancy bull thesis like this.
He's short.
But the rest of us have to be cautious doing anything at a time when the most powerful entities on the planet are fighting for their lives and can intervene any second, causing us to hang our sacks on a rusty nail while leaping through an easy trade.
What if you were long the yen when the BOJ intervened for the first time since 2004? Shorting USB looked like an obvious winner over 130, then went to 136 before falling off its cliff, but not before stopping out or margin-calling-to-death some traders who had the fundamentals pegged. Same goes for munis - waiting and waiting for the lead bulls to finally smell lion in the tall grass and spook the herd. At least you know the odds when gambling in Vegas; even the mob is more honest.
Yes, this is called socialization of losses and privatization of gains.
It's good to be the King!
*Until the revolution.
on a long enough timeline, we all bang dae ho...
Deutsche Bank has been lately on a hiring spree, hiring massive numbers of Indians, as it appears, to many of its departments. Their level of competence is mediocre to say the least, but that must be in line with the Frankfurt's executive board goal to expand in Asia. So, a once solid German Bank, has now traded cost savings of a few thousand dollars in salaries to losses of hundreds of millions due to sheer incompetence of its browned work force. Good bye white employees. They don't need them anymore. Too bad as it was on of the more reliable financial institutions, that is no longer.
Thanks for your revelation that Brown people are incompetent. you are a genius.
Deutsche Bank. And there is surprise at "permanent full retard" status here?
I actually went to school with "Binky" ... and let me tell you it is very strange seeing him all famous. He was (haven't talked to him in many years) a very cool guy, and amazingly smart. One of the sharpest people I've ever met, regardless of what we may think of his market calls.
actually we should really hope the keynesians pull it off and flood with enough liquidity to kick start a recovery and perfectly time the withdrawal of that liquidity and everything else happens as expected and is in perfect sequential order. To wish otherwise is to be naive as to what will happen in this country if we go into a serious depression or crack up boom. Being 100 percent long precious metals will not save you from the catastrophe if Bernanke fails.
Binky Chaddha has not only lost his marbles ; he will soon loose his Chaddis (underwear). But of course Chaddha may have been paid to loose it.
The only way the market can go up is because of the devaluation of the US $. If i recall the Zimbabwe stock market went up over 3000% in 1 year!
"..positive data surprises..."
Love it!
DavidC