It was less than 24 hours ago that we presented the latest 2011 outlook from Deutsche Bank's highly credible Fixed Income group, which had one of the bleakest economic outlooks for 2011, and we quote: "there are so many headwinds to work through, that recovery
is not consistent with premature monetary tightening by either the Fed
or the markets. Fiscal stimulus buys time in 2011 but little else.
Ironically the stronger growth looks, the more likely fiscal tightening
will come into play sooner keeping the recovery on a backfoot. However, in our view, at best this buys some time for recovery. The deficit is huge and meaningful fiscal tightening is not far behind. Even if we dodge the Ricardian bullet of equivalence in 2011, there is at least 1 if not 2 percent of fiscal tightening slated for 2012. If underlying economic growth remains in the 2-3 percent range, there is a sharp slowing implied for 2012." Yet this very rational view does not prevent that other DBer, Binky Chadha, who completely refuses to even cross check memos from other groups in the firm, and who in making even Joe LaVorgna sound credible, comes out with a report which can only be classified as going uberfull retard: "The strategic and tactical cases for US equities should come together to generate strong market returns in 2011 The S&P 500 YE 2011 target remains unchanged at 1550.We estimate $96 in EPS and a fair value multiple of 16.4x. These may look ambitious, but viewed against a Q4 2010 annualized $91.5 our estimate looks modest; a 16.5 multiple was the average in the 1930s. 25% price appreciation would not be atypical for a post-midterm election year, historically the strongest in the election cycle." All we can say is that when clowns take over the insane asylum, the end result is so much better than a hostile take over by lunatics: at least the consequences are so infinitely funnier. To all who believe that EPS can remain at projected levels once margins collapse across the board courtesy of an explosion in input costs should this prediction be even partially correct, all we can suggest is to buy every Cramer stock recommendation without question.
Binky's (not to be confused with Dinky from The Littles) optimism is based on the following 7 "catalysts":
The tactical case rests on 7 catalysts: A strengthening recovery, with jobs growth to pick up and credit growth to resume; positive data surprises; a low earnings bar; cheap multiples; a move toward the center in policy making; asset re-allocation back to equities; and a favorable demand-supply balance.
For everyone who wishes to feel their brain turn to mush, below is the full report.