Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha Goes Permafull Retard, Sees S&P At 1,550 By End Of 2011

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Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:11 | 805280 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Many heads for the Hydra.

Binky and the Brain, Brain, Brain.....

The Trinity is breaking out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:18 | 805314 weinerdog43
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Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:29 | 805357 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

OK, so this may seem hypocritical for someone who goes by "Turd" but how can anyone take seriously a market prognostication from someone named "Binky"?

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:43 | 805430 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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I wonder if his Mama calls him that!  :)

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 15:14 | 805559 SheepDog-One
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Binky's last big call was BBY at $44. Oops.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 16:29 | 805845 revenue_anticip...
revenue_anticipation_believer's picture

Margins? well downsizing employee staff, and downsizing the debt loads with NEW low interest dbond issues, especially 2011, and downsized competition, bankrupcies etc  A&P, but also Lehman, same thing...less competition enables suppliers to POST prices, to a certain extent not yet appreciated....AND then goldman, and JPMorgan doing THEIR PART in keeping supplier wholesale metals prices higher, thereby encouraging a larger permanent supply of metals...the mines remain open..the wholesale can be passed on...just as PROVEN back in early Summer 2008, gasoline retailing at $5/gallon....couldn't be done THEY SAID...oh YAH? 

It WAS DONE, and gasoline turned-out to be virtually INELASTIC...$5 made no difference, indeed the HIGHEST demand WAS that very summer of 2008...

Margins? yes, some companies A&P deserve to die, and for them, 'the war is over' end game...other razor-margin companies are learning to apply computerization, decision-support software, and all that...THEY will thrive and survive,  in a less competitive enviroment, soon THEY will almost in collusion will SET MARKET PRICES at the retail level...

same computations, same results...THAT IS NOT COLLUSION, no legal action possible...

""The tactical case rests on 7 catalysts: A strengthening recovery, with jobs growth to pick up and credit growth to resume; positive data surprises; a low earnings bar; cheap multiples; a move toward the center in policy making; asset re-allocation back to equities; and a favorable demand-supply balance.""   



Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:12 | 805288 jus_lite_reading
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PermaBULL to Permafrost in 2 weeks.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:14 | 805298 Convolved Man
Convolved Man's picture

Does FedEx deliver horse heads?  If you are a market bear and receive a package with a FRBNY return address, I suggest you not open it.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:32 | 805354 Don Birnam
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"Mr. Bernanke is a man who insists upon hearing bad news immediately."

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:52 | 805469 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

In his Harvard educated reptilian mind, higher prices = growth, strength, properity. However he forgets, like Greece, the riots here won't be clam...

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:15 | 805304 HarryWanger
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A tad too much. I'm looking at 1350-1400 but probably closer to the 1350 end of it.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:24 | 805335 Spalding_Smailes
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CNBC - All the large banks raising GDP forcast - (2011).

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:30 | 805364 SheepDog-One
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Whole lotta bankstas got a whole lot of trash theyre dying to dump.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 16:49 | 805923 revenue_anticip...
revenue_anticipation_believer's picture

Trash? you mean the Goldman conviction list of obsolete business model, obsolete locations/lack of Internet exploitation, lack of effective employee utilization at their highest and best potential (yes, some unions helping prevent this 'exploitation'...remember the 1982 aircraft controllers?  incompetent, unwilling to upgrade...all those were fired...

theres a whole lot of junk companies, well known names, fallen angels that will STAY FALLEN...

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:51 | 805459 Caviar Emptor
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Only because they're expecting the Fed will continue to help pump the stock market through funny money. In other words, the market has become a Funny Money Gauge, pure and simple. Not about business so much anymore. If the spigot gets turned off, look out below.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:54 | 805465 Bonesetter Brown
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Data points from the semiconductor supply chain suggest strong 2011, up >15% in revenue and more than that in volume/units shipped.

This is after concerns there would be a soft December quarter this year. 

The supply chain had been holding its breath. After the biggest ever re-stocking of inventory from 3Q09 to 2Q10, there were fears that returns to organic demand growth would be underwhelming. So far demand growth has exceeded expectations.

I would like to understand if the Best Buy miss is a data point that suggests a rethink of 2011 demand, or if it is a loss in market share.  If it is a change in the macro demand picture, the semi supply chain will know by the first week of January as Q1 orders get rescheduled.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 15:04 | 805513 traderjoe
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A couple of points:

1. All of my construction friends (a fair number) have NO work except for a few government jobs. My house building/remodeling friend has never seen it so bad and his family have been in the business for 40 years. 

2. Even if BBY is simply a market share thing, then the winners will be AMZN and other online retailers. This will result in a further decline in employment, CRE values, etc. as the big box concept dies a slow death. Higher package shipping represents, IMHO, this online push and not necessarily net growth in economic activity. All of those local retail, especially mom-and-pop, stores will get further and further behind. 

3. Semi's might sell well, but they represent in part a push for productivity, i.e. computers replacing labor. 

Many of these macro trends will take years to play out, but we have no solution for long-term jobs. The S&P 500 companies will eventually no longer need US employment. We are hollowing out our economy. 

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 16:37 | 805888 revenue_anticip...
revenue_anticipation_believer's picture

YES, that is ALL correct sociologically...

business is not about 'welfare on the job'...if you are an equity market (not bond market) trader, NOW is the best of times to get in....DOW 36000 actually is more than possible but more than likely....Oh, did you ALL, forget JAPAN 1988-1989 ?? Nikki 39,000 which eventually douched a low of what? 8000?  

In the USA, yes, from 8000 to 39000 is quite within the possible range, with the help of Gods Workers Goldman/Jpm the Federal Reserve, the European Central bank...and a DESPERATE China, needing MIDDLE CLASS buyers (which no such thing, in quantity exists in China mainland)....

all this will require PERMANENT, secular unemployement and permanent reductions in force in government and residential construction...self evident...we, the World this time is going thru a once in 70 year Creative Destruction, no cyclical recession here, not at all....start RETRAINING, ASAP...

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 16:52 | 805930 revenue_anticip...
revenue_anticipation_believer's picture

Right thinking, right questions, full acceptance of the PIMCO New Normal

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 15:42 | 805680 El Hosel
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Raising GDP forecast because bonds are selling off, "things must be getting better"...Now all we need is a sell off in gold to sound the all clear for Goldilocks and the three stooges.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 16:43 | 805904 revenue_anticip...
revenue_anticipation_believer's picture

.""Now all we need is a sell off in gold to sound the all clear for Goldilocks and the three stooges."


Good THINKING, from your creative unconscious mind...yes, down deep, you KNOW thats what is gonna at 3x the mining cost...a fad...Gold will quite probably settle down back to near-cost of production...$500 or maybe less than two years, even 12 months, depending...and no further need of MANIPULATING THE GOLD PRICE, simple 'price discovery' will work just fine, SOON...



Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:26 | 805344 traderjoe
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Harry, you've NEVER answered me: when's your experiment on us 'permabulls' over? How many avatars do you have?

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 15:04 | 805510 TruthInSunshine
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He's no Harry! He's a James!

And he claims he owns "a little" physical gold.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:28 | 805362 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

I will know bear capitulation has occurred when you quit getting junked.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:33 | 805377 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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13th Warrior here! 

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:36 | 805395 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

I'm at 1347.5 - on the nose!

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 18:55 | 806329 asteroids
asteroids's picture

I only look at trailing earnings not hopium

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:16 | 805305 Spalding_Smailes
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Ground Control to Uncle Ben
Ground Control to Uncle Ben ...

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:21 | 805307 plocequ1
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From Deutsche Bank's mouth to Bernankes ears. So let it be written, So let it be done. Bernankes on it.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:16 | 805310 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

I don't see this as full retard. It all depends on how long the bernak can keep the charade going. If another year, 1550 wouldn't be out of line.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:56 | 805483 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. With the market being a pure Funny Money gauge and not about anticipated earnings, this can go on toward a few end points: 

-Nasdaq cracks 2000 highs (good news) but inflation runs 18% (bad news)

-S&P cracks 2,500 (good news) but high input costs force de-listings of big companies every month to be replaced by speculative companies (bad news)

-Stocks get used as scrip for groceries and gasoline (very bad news)

-Social Security savings get invested in stocks as GW Bush suggested, pushing NASDAQ to 10,000 only to crash back to 500 (worse news)

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:20 | 805318 Internet Tough Guy
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And oil will be 120, and gold will be 1800, and food...

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:27 | 805349 traderjoe
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Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:22 | 805324 TheGreatPonzi
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The very survival, not even the growth, of the modern financial system is based on credit expansion and M expansion.

So if they are permabullish, it's not just because they'd like more growth in the future: it's because they cannot do anything else than predicting higher levels of assets, for they own sake.

If Bank of America predicted DOW 4,000 in 2014, they would just be actively digging their own grave.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:21 | 805325 Cleanclog
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Likes US equities because expects European flight?  Riots in Rome, Paloma and Milan today, UK and Ireland last week, ongoing dust ups in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and warnings in Belgium?  Terrorist bombs in Sweden.  

But where to go when the riots start in the US?  Or will reality shows continue to dull the Americans?  Local bank robberies, pepper-sprayed clerks at retail shops while someone steals, and residential break-ins are up up up in the US.  Some from desperate need, but most because jails are full, DAs don't have staff to prosecute, and there are more important violent cases taking police and prosecutorial resources.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:30 | 805367 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

But where to go when the riots start in the US?


As long as "Dancing with the Stars" is on there will be no riots.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:24 | 805327 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Ah, yes. Deutsche Bank. I thought this outfit rang a bell, with their "Top 5" industry picks for "Black Friday 2010." Number "1" is certainly called to mind. Thanks for the memories, Binky.



Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:31 | 805372 SheepDog-One
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Best Buy their #1 bull pick, too funny.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:26 | 805342 Biggus Dickus Jr.
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What if you are wrong?

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:26 | 805346 pat53
pat53's picture

Very doable IMO. The bears who have been consistently wrong for the last 2 years will be wrong again. Like I've said for months .... DO NOT FIGHT THE FED...period. There are vested interests in blowing every last short out of this market. Until then, UP UP UP we go. The fact that the SPY is now the most shorted security only means the upside has WAY more to go. Until the bears understand that, they have no chance.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:29 | 805360 traderjoe
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Did you miss the move in silver and gold? 

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:32 | 805375 SheepDog-One
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pat35 youll have about 14 minutes to escape implosion once Bernank hits the 'contain inflation' switch.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 16:06 | 805780 call me ahab
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"DO NOT FIGHT THE FED...period."


so-  I guess when the Fed was saying that subprime was contained and that there was no housing bubble-


folks should have taken that "as gold"  that nothing tragic would happen and stayed fully vested in stocks?


yeah . . .the Fed- they have it all figured out- always reacting after the market says what's up


no doubt in my mind that the Fed will be wondering what the fuck happened when all their little genius policy moves don't end up having the desired effect-  higher rates and high employment- what will be their excuse then?


That they're clueless?

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:28 | 805356 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

SO on a percentage basis that will put silver at...lets seeee....about $5000

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:29 | 805359 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

So don't these clowns talk to one another? Or is there some trick to this -- like a dollar so weak that 1550 on the S&P in 2011 translates into a loss?

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:33 | 805381 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

S&P 1550, USD -0-, cheers rang out across the land....

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 15:59 | 805747 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 This is exactly the trick; just like the stock market average from 2002 to 2007; even with inflation; no gain. "Growth" is a dead concept, left over from the past; inflation cannot and will not drive the stock market to produce a real gain.

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:32 | 805373 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

His 7 catalysts are hilarious, the only thing he had to say is "dollar down the shitter, everything else to the moon."

Tue, 12/14/2010 - 14:31 | 805374 shushup
shushup's picture

The market is doing the FED proud today and without any POMO money. Imagine that!

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