Deutsche Bank's Joe Lavorgna Cuts His NFP Forecast From 300,000 To 160,000 In Two Days

Tyler Durden's picture

There is little we can add to what can only be classified as career suicide facilitated by terminal incompetence from one of CNBC's most beloved "economists" (in this case, naturally, Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna), who just cut his NFP estimate from 300,000 to 160,000 in two days. From yesterday: "Our preliminary estimates were for +300k on payrolls and a three-tenths decline in the unemployment rate to 8.7%. However, in light of the softer tone of the data—particularly the inability of initial jobless claims to recover below 400k—we trimmed our projections. We lowered our May payroll estimate to +225k and raised our unemployment rate target to 8.9%." And from 10 minutes ago: "In light of the significant downside surprise in the ADP employment numbers earlier today, as well as the equally important slowdown in the ISM employment component, we are trimming our May nonfarm payroll projection to 160k from 225k as we previously estimated. We project private payrolls to increase 185k. We continue to anticipate a one-tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 8.9%."

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how Joe Lavorgna does it.

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XenoFrog's picture

Don't worry, already priced in. Buy more equities.

Northern Crock's picture

....or perhaps nobody actually believes a word Joe says...hence this second "re-estimate" in 2 days from a top 5 global bank(ster) will never reach the front page in any financial publications or move the markets....and Joe if you're reading this....the 20+ point drop on the S&P is not down to you OK???

oogs66's picture

I'm surprised he could do this from the hamptons?  And in other newes, CNBS announces stocks are up on the week, if you take into account the rally from the lows we will likely get.

SheepDog-One's picture

Gee I wish I was a real 'economist' too! Then I could get paid 7 figures for batting .000 even when I'm fed the pitches ahead of time thru my Blackberry!

Clueless Economist's picture

and to think that all I got for batting .000 is a lousy Nobel Prize

SheepDog-One's picture

You didnt even get one of MomoFaders 'I heart the FED' T shirts?

hedgeless_horseman's picture

...he started his professional career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 1992, where he was an eCONomist on the Monetary Analysis and Projections Staff. 


newworldorder's picture

Working at the Federal Reserve is the place where all future economists of stature go to become indoctrinated. One cannot work as an economist in the financial/academic/media power structure without a FED administered lobotomy.

Find an economist with no FED or wall street work record and hire them as the next Treasury Secretary.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It's the substantial cash award that goes along with the Nobel Prize that's the payoff for all his "keepers of the public (financial) myth" work.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how Joe Lavorgna does it.

My operative tells me Joe's out of the bathroom and back at his desk. Though he is still looking a little green around the gills.

lizzy36's picture

HAHAHAHA as if he throws up over this.

DB clients probably use his forecasts to trade against, not with.

Here's JOE:


Cdad's picture

I think he [DB] just hacked out 800 k shares of the XRT right at the bottom of the intraday channel.  So as everyone talks about the transitory nature of the ISM miss and the ADP [un]employment miss, transitory apparently does not include today...nor does it apply to bullishness on retail stocks...or confidence in the ETF arb fiasco...these things right along with  Lavorgna chunks.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The very wise old fart who broke me in to 'da bidness' 25 years ago would say that the chart pattern high at the beginning and end of yesterday in the XRT (and S&P) was called 'rabbit ears' because it reminded him of the built in antenna of small TVs that could be pulled out and adjusted. Back then it signified a top. Nowadays it means BTFD.

Cdad's picture

Hmmmm?  BTFD.  Never heard that one.

What would the wise old fart say about an index that takes out its 10, 20, and 50 day sma in one session?

Cdad's picture

This is ground control to brother Cog, I'm stepping through the fog, and I'm choking in a most peculiar way, 'cause the ISM looked different today.

Ground control to brother Cog, the SPY is down, there's something wrong.  Can you hear me brother Cog?  Can you hear me brother Cog? Can you hear me brother Cog?

...and I'm sitting on my VIX calls, far above the world.  Joe Lavorgna's chunks just blew and there's nothing Ben can do.


Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I hear ya brother Cdad, I hear ya. :>)

Cdad's picture

Oops.  Now the NASDAQ composite is going to join the S&P with the inverse triple 10,20,50 sma wipe out.  I'm sure that is bullish, and dip buyers are just around the corner.

Everyone knows that if you just counterfeit US dollars and pile them into Netflix, economic activity explodes!  

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Joe L on CNBC yesterday saying we shall have a housing shortage. Too fracking funny.

Cdad's picture

Can it be?  Will the S&P wipe out four sma marks in one session?  I think it could.  If she goes bidless into the close, you might have to add another chart here, brother Cog...with those sma's drawn.

But good thing Cramer was not the least bit concerned about this utter and complete technical breakdown of...umm...everything.

RobotTrader's picture

Hilarious.  Another high paid flip flopper with fancy Powerpoint presentations which are utterly useless.

Internet Tough Guy's picture

Joey bag o doughnuts is more accurate than your calls, Momo.

Crisis now over, nobody needs gold, but they are clamoring for bank stocks
RobotTrader - Mon, May 30, 2011 - 10:55 PM

Heh, so typical.


SheepDog-One's picture

'The market is not pricing in QE3, the markets are pricing in a robust consumer driven recovery'....oyyyy veyyyyyy

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

hilarious. the king of flip flops, who changes his tune from post to post, calling somebody else a flip-flopper.

btw: jim sinclair sends warm regards. said he offers his sympathies to you for the losses in your widows and orphans portfolio.

Corduroy's picture


How cool are sound bites though... as long as you say something new two days in a row you can forget any reference to what you said three days ago and nobody in MSM will pull you up on it WICKED

Hondo's picture

His imcompetence shines again!

lunaticfringe's picture

I watched this douche nozzle preaching the company line the other day. Wow. Underwhelmed, to say the least.

JR's picture

There is no single subject domestically to the financial picture than the spectacular increase in the Hispanic population.  What’s more, there’s no greater financial story cover-up than what this increase in the Hispanic population means to the social framework of America or to the economic implications.

Today’s San Francisco Chronicle reports on US Census statistics in a front page article - South, Midwest Tops in Hispanic Growth: Nation’s largest minority group heads to states with best prospects - noting that while California still has more Hispanics than any other state – 14 Million – “the rest of the country is trying to catch up.”  Nationwide, the number of Hispanics grew by 43 percent over the past decade – to 50.5 Million – with officials noting that “it is only going to get even bigger in the next few decades” and that “the country should expect that to show up in more elected Hispanic leaders in the coming years” with “the nation as a whole becoming far more Hispanic influenced.” 

Said Census Bureau demographer Merarys Rios-Vargas: “We do not ask about legal status.”

Total U.S. Hispanic population: up 43 percent.

Northeast:  up 33.1 percent.

Midwest:  up 49.2 percent.

South:  up 57.3 percent.

West:  up 34.3 percent.

California:  up 27.8 percent.

Texas: up 41.8 percent.

Iowa:  up 83.7 percent.

Nebraska:  up 77.3 percent.

Alabama:  up 144.8 percent.

Kentucky:  up 121.6 percent.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Read more:

John McCloy's picture

Can we get a pool going on the Birth/Death number? Winner gets a ZH T-Shirt?

I predict 90k Non Farm 

53,000 B/D

John McCloy's picture

I am keeping track Cog. I will purchase a ZH T-shirt for the nearest estimate. What is your non-farm number if your B/D is 150k. I do not think they could be so bold.

traderjoe's picture

My B/D estimate would be 210k. Go to this page: This current month should be similar to May 2010 - but even higher (because if a model isn't working, you should just increase it). 

Of course, it should be noted that the first part of the B/D model is never reported: when they call businesses and get no response (deaths), they still count the previously supplied number in the survey (as if the business had never closed). That's the black box of the model. Nefarious stuff. 

Edit: if I need both - NFP 165k.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

What is your non-farm number if your B/D is 150k.

140,000 to 160,000. So I'll call 150,000.

And yes, they could, would and eventually will be that bold. :>)

BTW if I win give the shit to any homeless person or SNAP recipient you trip over while walking to work. Maybe they'll get the message. :>)

John McCloy's picture

  Yeah your right. I wake up everyday and say " there is no chance they could attempt this one" and then I find out that if you simply surrender yourself to the fact that what will be done with the most theater to the detriment of personal liberties and economic individual liberties of U.S. citizens will be what goes down. And the MSM will follow along with the blitzkrieg of how great this all is for us. 

   If yesterdays ES lowered margins did not confirm this then I do not know what will. QE3 cannot come because it is not possible without silver/gold taking off into the this logic we should be able to dechiper it is necessary. A 20% fall in the markets and scary data will not be the catalyst..they need something greater such as a threat to security or a big Lehman like event that requires more threat of martial law. This means after Jackson Hole we probably will start hearing rumors of a "small" QE package greater than QE lite but not as bold as QE2. 

   We all know the markets cannot survive any longer without perpetual QE, 0% rates, abandonment of Mark to Market so yes QE3 will need to be reserved so as not to attract attention. A market fall is not enough. The MSM will pretend we have had 2+ years of recovery anyway and this is a "Natural cycle" of economics. We know the truth however and that is the entire market is now reliant upon Fed subsidization which means free markets no longer exist and central planning is what we have..just like in the USSR

John McCloy's picture

B/D or non-farm?

Need both.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture


And I thought I was out there. Looks like I'm safely in the middle of the herd. :>)

jsmfr's picture

Keep in mind that the B/D adjustment is to the non-seasonally adjusted data.  You can't take the B/D adjustment and compare it to the reported seasonally adjusted change.  For instance, in April, B/D was +175K, and unadjusted increase in payrolls was +1169K, so B/D accounted for 15% of the rise. In March, B/D was +117 versus unadjusted +925K, which was 13%. February was +112K /+811K for 14%.

Astute Investor's picture

29% estimate reduction = "trimming"

I wonder what constitutes "slashing" in Joey's world?

Hedgetard55's picture

+55, Astute.

That struck me as well.


I guess Joe is not there to provide accurate forecasts but to endorse the current propaganda meme, whatever he is told it is.

NotApplicable's picture

You just gotta love the "We continue to anticipate a one-tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 8.9%."

Wannabe sophists, take note!

urbanelf's picture

It's uncanny how accurately these guys can predict the future after the fact.

silvertrain's picture

He really gets paid to provide this information?

TheGameIsRigged's picture

Douche Bag's  (I mean Deutsche Bank's) Joe La V.....hittin another one out a da park!

I want what HE'S smoking!!