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"a cracked economic system", indeed. The only problem is that the politicians are in control and their little pet experiment with the Euro won't end easily. Bring on the DM!
The original Euro agreement has been broken by the bailout and I can't blame the Germans for wanting out. I agree that TPTB will clutch dearly to their Euro. I wouldn't be surpised to see war which is always a good distraction.
The surest sign would be the re-renaming of Volgograd to Stalingrad.
Second sign would be re-re-renaming the Deutsch Mark the Reich Mark.
What then, pray tell, would all my 1923 100 billion RM bills be worth?
Squat, as any Reich Mark would be a New Reich Mark, not the old Reich Mark
The 4th Reich Mark? :)
Abandoning a currency is unthinkable until you understand there are alternatives.
Quoting and discussing the DEM make it easier for Europeans to understand there are alternatives to the Euro (especially for the Germans).
We are merely waiting for time to go by, for people to get used to the idea. The Euro is already dead.
Similar discussions will happen in the US with regards to the dollar. It will take some time.
paradigms take a long time to shatter, but they all do eventually.
Although ze germanz look more sensible, in an upside world this can actually hamper you. With the disintegration of the Euro the US Dollar will be doomed to stay the reserve currency. The Euro with all it's flaws at least had enough of a base to play second fiddle to USD, the DEM - it's just another currency, is all. So they'll be healthier, but due to a smaller base they will be just more easy to manipulate on the FX front, at least in the short and mid-term.
And after the Euro disintegrates the USD will go all De Niro on the rest of the kids in the schoolyard:
You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? Well I'm the only one here.
From Joe Dirt (2001)Clem: [talking to fire extinguisher] You're talking to me all wrong... It's the wrong tone. You do it again and I'll stab you in the face with a soldering iron.
With the violation of agreements under which the Euro was established, one could argue that it no longer has a mandate to exist. All that remains is for this situation to be formally recognized.
Wow! Tyler you have made my day! The Germans are finally waking up to the Euro Scam, the subjugation of a great race by an army of Brussells pigmies.
New World Order, We are NOT YOUR SLAVES!
I will celebrate by giving it to a fraulein, shieldmaiden style, good and hard,whilst singing my favorite Song..
Deutschland, Deutschland über alles, Über alles in der Welt, Wenn es stets zu Schutz und Trutze Brüderlich zusammenhält. Von der Maas bis an die Memel, Von der Etsch bis an den Belt, |: Deutschland, Deutschland über alles, Über alles in der Welt! :|
Germany, Germany above all, Above all in the world, When, for protection and defence, it always takes a brotherly stand together. From the Meuse to the Memel, From the Adige to the Belt, |: Germany, Germany above everything, Above everything in the world. :|
Deutsche Frauen, deutsche Treue, Deutscher Wein und deutscher Sang Sollen in der Welt behalten Ihren alten schönen Klang, Und zu edler Tat begeistern Unser ganzes Leben lang. |: Deutsche Frauen, deutsche Treue, Deutscher Wein und deutscher Sang! :|
German women, German loyalty, German wine and German song Shall retain in the world Their old beautiful chime And inspire us to noble deeds During all of our life. |: German women, German loyalty, German wine and German song! :|
Einigkeit und Recht und Freiheit Für das deutsche Vaterland! Danach lasst uns alle streben Brüderlich mit Herz und Hand! Einigkeit und Recht und Freiheit Sind des Glückes Unterpfand; |: Blüh' im Glanze dieses Glückes, Blühe, deutsches Vaterland. :|
Unity and justice and freedom For the German fatherland! For these let us all strive Brotherly with heart and hand! Unity and justice and freedom Are the pledge of fortune; |: Flourish in this fortune's blessing, Flourish, German fatherland. :|
Silly article. If I want to leave, I´m not going to spend hundreds of billions on bailouts. Not to talk about german banks exposure to southern Europe and german industry dependence on eurozone export. Leaving the eurozone would cost Germany multiple times more than trying to fix it. Not gonna happen.
You're assuming there is a "fix" for the Euro.
There is not.
Of course, there is. Already underway.
Germany would be like the Czech Republic, Switzerland and England... trading in the Euro Zone, just using their own currency.
If Germany abandons the Euro, the Euro will go bye, bye in a nanosecond. Just kidding. It would likely be an orderly unwinding (yea, right). Seems to me that he Euro is going to go bye, bye anyway, even if the Germans don't throw 'er under the Beemer; for all the reasons ever stated in Zero Hedge posts. No need to discuss them again.
A German abandonment of the Euro would not send the Euro bye bye in a nanosecond.
Expect a week or two of first class television entertainment.
There will be flying unicorns, but this time they'll be crapping Schadenfreude.
This is the type of thing you need to see at a bottom, thanks for posting. Any other news declaring the end of the Euro would be appreciated although a Newsweek cover pretty much was the kiss of death for the shorts anyway. Agree, silly article.
from time to time an endgame does exist and bottoms are in fact black holes...we are witnessing the demise of all fiats not only the euro. it will take time, but i am convinced it (the fiat demise) will happen in the next 20 years, perhaps far sooner than that.
This is the type of thing you need to see at a bottom
This is the type of thing you need to see at a bottom
Yep. I saw bullish divergences on the the main indices charts Tuesday morning, as well as negative divergences on my bear ETF and UUP charts and decided to sell my related equities and options. When I brought up ZH and saw how negative the article tone was that morning, I viewed it as that one extra piece of confirmation that at least a short-term trend change was afoot. Knight's Slope of Hope site is also sometimes a good one for market sentiment "extremes". When he was essentially throwing in the bear towel, I suspected that a negative trend change was likely close at hand. It was.
I understand "contrarian", because there is so much "dumb money" out there.
However, your argument is almost entirely anecdotal unsupported assertions.
I'm not negative because I had a bad breakfast, or because it might rain. Rather, the math is impossible, and there has been no assertion of any kind of plan that addresses key issues (e.g., Greece has no GDP, and will have no GDP in ten years' time.)
If you take slope-of-market for a few days in support of any guess, then I'm similarly amazed at the magical fantasy thinking you employ.
Is there a plan? No. Is there a fix? No. The math is really quite simple. The fact that you have faith in the "political economy" after we've hit a mathematical wall (in direct opposition to the "real economy") means you will find yourself hopelessly disappointed.
The debt cannot be serviced. Done.
However, I understand your situation: The "political" economy has successfully man-handled the "real" economy for decades. Unfortunately, the historically accumulated math distortions prohibits that going forward.
a short term bounce is due...perhaps inching toward 125-127..and maybe thats the trade some are referring to...but long term yes, the euro is fucked as is any other fiat.
I don't argue fundamentals, the market doesn't reflect fundamentals 100% of the time, it's just an auction. Just too many traders on 1 side of the boat at this given point in time for my taste.
mikla said: "The debt cannot be serviced. Done."
repo replied: "I don't argue fundamentals"
Do you ever consider fundamentals? Or is your game all about trading and nothing but? In other words, does it matter to you that the market you trade is being killed by 1) intervention and 2) short-term trading above all else? Fundamentals = functioning capital markets, an essential part of a productive capitalist economy. Trading = casino markets, capital goes into hiding, productivity wanes, hyenas fighting over the corpse, then poof.
How can anyone lend capital into a market whose time horizon is milliseconds? Those silly fundamentals, I know. You'd have to be fucking insane to take a company public in this environment.
"Thinking about the reward for my excellent sight kept me from considering the distance to the dollar-heap. I should have walked and not sprinted." Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
I have been of the opinion for the past 30+ years that the fiscal path of the US is unsustainable. Europe has been on a similar path. Cherished thoughts of American exceptionalism (or good old fashioned corruption) seem to blind most politicians and populace alike to a fiscal situation that is farmore akin to Argentina than the that of the world's largest creditor nation on the eve of 1930. The cynical optimist in me would like to see folks wake up to the oncoming train barrellling down the tracks and start taking unpleasant steps now to mitigate that damage that will be wrought when the virtually inevitable train crash occurs. However, the realist in me knows that the perennial human disease of short-termism virtually assures that meaningful change will not happen until after the crash.
However, at most historical inflection or transition points, while final resolution could be swift, there was normally a preceding period of extended volatility and chop as competing paths fought it out. I think that we are in such a period. Long-term positioning here may seem attractive, but as noted in the quote above, it can also be deleterious to your financial health in the short to intermediate-term. I am most at home trading in what I perceive to be longer-term macro trends, however, to survive and profit in the chop, I have often had to look to shorter time frames.
I seriously thought about deleting my post before hitting the "save" button, as I feared that the egotistical side of me was perhaps gloating a bit much on the lastest successful zag. For that I apologize if did go overboard on the celebratory chest-thuming. However, that does not negate the fact that for those trading on tighter time frames, ZH can be an interesting market sentiment validator, as can other bearishly oriented sights.
There is much that I don't know, but there is much that I do. If this "dumb money" is employing "magical fantasy thinking", then I hope to keep employing it for some time to come, as it been profitable and usually keeps me on the right side of the market, whether that be up or down (yes, I know, another anecdotal unsupported assertion - deal with it,...or don't).
I have been of the opinion for the past 30+ years that the fiscal path of the US is unsustainable.
What are you doing about it?
If this "dumb money" is employing "magical fantasy thinking", then I hope to keep employing it for some time to come, as it been profitable and usually keeps me on the right side of the market, whether that be up or down (yes, I know, another anecdotal unsupported assertion - deal with it,...or don't).
Thus speaks one of the hyenas fighting over the corpse (see my above). After the collapse which you foresaw so long ago happens, do yourself a favor: when people ask you what you did before the crash, don't say "I was a market trader." People probably won't take kindly to it, and protesting "but I provided vital liquidity" probably won't help your case any.
"The debt cannot be serviced. Done."
Who cares about Greece? It´s less than 3% of eurozone´s GDP. Either it gets it house in order or the debt will be restructured in 2 or 3 years. Greek debt is a nonexistent problem. We talk about it because of a contagion risks, not because of the debt itself. Greek debt is a small fish. And other eurozone countries problems are fixable.
Totally agree, silly article. End of the Euro? ok, it has had a big fall, but we are bearly around purchasing power parity with the US for equivalent salaries, how cand this be a Euro crisis? IT IS NOT! Its a sovereign crisis, but not a currency crisis, or at least not yet a currency crisis, since differently to most other developed countries, EZ countries can not print their way out as easily, otherwise, then it would of course be at least below parity with the USD.
Interesting article, a poll that says that 39% would like the DM, means the majority? Why not say both sides, how many said no to the DM? how many did not respond?
ZH, please have some more critical thinking, this is a way to get to almost the same poor level as general media.
How can they give a quote for the DM when DMs dont exist and are not in circulation?
It is a very complex set of equations based upon how many Germans suffer from lumbar pain, and deducing from this the number of old Deutsche Marks they have stuffed under their mattresses.
The Exact same way that any asset is valued. Equilibrium of Bid and Offer. Matters not that it does not exist; futures, when issued markets.... Standard financial fare, less engineered than your mom's own CDO.
If "matters not" causes consternation, try extinguishing personal remorse, for the emotion relates exclusively to an unvisitable, non reattainble, yet amenable past.
The price is being determined for the yet to be reintroduced Mark. The most efficacious price discovery available, set by an open market.
Scary? Not at all, for it is a harbinger of enhanced freedoms of individuals to choose their own destiny. Schlotnicks, D-Mark, Dollars (Zimbabawe, Canada or US) or Euros, Your Very Own Personal Choice.
.. anyone need any better reason to own Gold??
Obviously, they're using the DM to EUR conversion rate at around 0,51€/DM
Agreed. As Churchill so perceptively averred "The Germans are either at your feet of at your throats". The silly transports of the curiously named "Russki standart" are all too symptomatic of the misplaced enthusiasms which have long characterized an ongoing collective psychosis masquerading as a nation. Stress tests of German banks conducted by the ECB have revealed mass insolvency with Deutchebank itself at 95/1 derivatives to cash. The image of the stalwart thrifty and industrious German as a bulwark against the rising tide of sovereign debt engulfing the Eurozone is like so much else in their nightmarish national narcissism-a myth.
I wrote the above after finishing my breakfast glass of vodka at the beach. Just having some fun....
You are correct. If Germany was to revert to the Deutsche Mark, their banks would implode and the financial system would be destroyed, along with all paper 'savings'. Indeed the global financial system would also implode like Building #7 in NY. Having said this, the pain would tremendous, but all of us who care to see things as they really are realise the fiat money game is in its last stages. No matter what we do, it will end badly. So, all kidding aside, but we Germans need to decide if they wish to suffer the pain now, or a worse level of pain later. Personally, I hope it ends soon so that we can create a new and better world, by renouncing a broken financial system that benefits only a priviledged few.
FYI, Russki or Russkiy Standart is my favourite Vodka:
Wonder if in a decade or two folks will look back and view Angela Merkel as the economic Winston Churchill of current times. A person who was ultimately willing to call a spade a spade and act accordingly.
Not a silly article. Germany is looking to replace US with Russia as its strategic partner. Germany sees no future in throwing its lot with the sinking titanic, instead they have their eyes on Russia's infinite resources (1/3 of the world's total, everything except rubber roughly speaking) and military know-how (yes, yes, Russia's STILL number one in everything to do with high-energy physics and rocketry). Russia for its part is desperate to see the world move on from the dollar standard and wouldn't mind gold as currency as they've got huge mining resources.
I vaguely remember when the Ukranian NG pipeline was shutdown for some reason (I do not recall if it was political or mechanical) that Putin said something to the effect of "Germany will get energy and everyone else in Europe should get a warm coat." Cheeky, if you read this, do you remember the quote? Also how would you view this in historical context? Does it make more sense for each Russia and Germany to have its own currency but have trade agreements that circumvent the US dollar and are mutually beneficial?
This is a wonderful time to be trading. We know the markets are rigged and we know how they are rigged. Reggie and Meredith Whitney have been telling us for months to short GS. It wouldn't have been a stretch to short GS' sister stock JPM. Tyler has been all over the euro. BP has been covered well on ZH also. Opportunity abounds!
uh, Germany has too much to loose in abandonning the euro, yet there are still Germans who are promoting it, nostalgics of the FDR successes, but when Germany can't bail out OPEL and ask for EU founds to make it, one has to wonder of the supposed wealthier Germany, that was/is in the deny of the trivial realities.
In Spain; the supermarkets have started advertising the prices of their specials in pesetas.
The Euro is alien - like a transplanted organ - and one that's now showing signs of being rejected by its host.
Am reminded of the Monty Python comment:
STOP PRESS: Nixon's had an ar*ehole transplant
UPDATE: the ar*ehole's rejected him
I won't repeat my thoughts on the Euro, the German posturing over the DM, the terror of the French if the Euro blows up and leaves them at the mercy of the Vaterland ... or the rioting etc that will escalate. Looking forward to a lovely summer
Sure, everything is relative, anyhow to say boersennews.de is "one of the biggest german stock market portals" is compeltely overstated.
The portal is irrelevant. They do not even have a full redaction, only 4 people running the business.
The "reintroduction" is nothing but a cheap pr-gag. Nobody cares about that shit, as nobody even knows the portal. Dont let you fool by nobodys.
Agreed, absolutely irrelevant portal. And 39% of 1,364 users for me is not "the majority of Germans"
Besides, everyone in the German industry is cheering for a low EURUSD, which is fuel for the German export machinery.
The only one, who should be worried at this point is China!
I never understood the logic of devaluing a currency for import advantage. It is self defeatist long term. Protect your currency...buy the products with your strong currency anf make quality products.
If the devaluation effect is strong enough to push prices down, crude, copper, basic metals among others, export-led growth may not be the worst option.
For a single, small country however, this would be fatal. That's why the Swiss are so desperately trying to keep their currency down. Otherwise, their exports would dry off faster than any productivity gains could be achieved.
my sister in Germany told me last nite taxes went up 25%.
It's not true yet.
I guess the moral of the story is that this was another failed attempt at globalization. The take home lesson for these folks is that you can not centralize economic control until you have done the same with the political system. The Soviet experience should have taught them this much.
At the very least, the globalists have stashed away a few trillion for their next attempt in another fifty years or so.
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