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Did The Market Top Out on Friday?

RobotTrader's picture




 

With "billions under management" at risk and thousands of nervous hedge funds playing with 3x leverage (thanks to Bank of America Prime Brokerage), everyone wants to know if now is the time to "make a killing" by going short stocks.  After reviewing many charts, it sure looks like another "Get Out of Dodge" day.

Let's review the checklist:

1) QQQQ and IWM breakdown?  Yep, they cracked big.

2) Financials breaking down?  Not quite yet.

3) Retail stocks breaking down?  Not quite yet.

4) Commodity "Midnight Massacre"?  No.

5) Fleeing to USDX as carry trades unwind?  Not yet.

6) Emerging market status?  Blowtorched.

7) VIX going vertical?  Yep.

8) Summation Index and McClellan Oscillator going down? Yep.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html

 

The
"all important 21-day" keenly eyeballed by the mo-mo crowd is about to
break.  One more day, or a gap down on Monday will seal the deal.

Check out the VIX:

Instead
of showing the bad break of the EEM, instead, you can see the mo-mo
gamers immediately started piling into the EDZ "Triple Whammy" casino
table with 5x normal volume:

With
everyone attempting to "make their year", the hedge funds are acting
like "speculative locusts".  We'll have to watch and see how fast
everyone swarms over to the bear casino tables.

Put/call ratio today went ballistic:

Note the huge volume in USO today.  1974 all over again?

So where do the hedge funds hide during bouts of geopolitical turmoil?

Netflix, of course....

Unfortunately,
the card playing, booze drinking, and escort playing Plutocrats in
Davos will have to have an emergency meeting this weekend to avoid a
complete and total meltdown in the global financial system.

Because
the girls are all sitting home with their clickers, scared to death,
toggling between CNN news and watching the latest horror flick on NFLX.

Rest assured that come Monday, if the market gets smoked, the 19-year old video game console traders at TIAA-CREF, CalPERS, Fidelity, etc. will be forced to flip and go short as the FemBots will be screaming and shouting:

"If it's going down, short it!!!"

 

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Sat, 01/29/2011 - 11:45 | 915924 hellopahello
hellopahello's picture

sell sell sell ....................

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:40 | 916441 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

USO is actually 55% US Treasuries, fannie mae, ING, USD, ... crap like that. the whole move appears to have been pure speculative on a half ass real bet on oil.. 

imo dyodd nia

go pure futures, like DBO has over 100% july calls on WTI. because i've noticed that anything that starts with "United States" (like USO, UGA, UNG, etc)  you will actually be heavily in government supporting issues... nearly shit my panties when i found out, deceptive and sneaky, isn't it? AND.. these are leveraged.. heavily. Imagine, thinking your in an oil play and your in government derivatives! please: correct me if i'm wrong...

Checkout the holding for USO:

Fidelity Instl MM Fds Government I N/A 35.28% Goldman Sachs FS Government Sel N/A 20.53%

 

the other 'united states' etf's have a similar distribution.

These have identical graphs, so you can assume they have the same types of issues.. they include fannie mae, ING, and US treasuries.

And for these reasons, if you want physical oil, may be best to just buy the oil companies themselves; waiting for a pullback. Or get into something like DIG which has shares.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 17:07 | 916671 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 

RT, if this were PM's, we'd know they had just been waiting to exhale.

but, this is paper PAPER. 

i'm not v. good at predicting the future, especially at the parimutuel window.

women are much more predictable, but not w/out the occasional upside surpise, even for them, too, as it turns out...

the vix spike:  yep, the stage may be down the road.

if i had any discretionary green stamps left after getting all my meagre assets in a totally defensive position for years, it might be fun to short an index and sell some puts.  but i don't, so i won't.

plus, we've seen the head fakes and expiry-date wipeouts b4, but it HAS been a while, eh? maybe due to circuit breakers;  who knows?

so, we're all doing the sorting and the wash here, but what slewie is left with after drying and folding is this one damned sock.  wish it were yours, but it's tyler's:  our alpha Theta's regular reminders that the insiders have been bailing for months, now, under cover of the liquidity sloshing in the wash. 

their stage HAS left town, good lookin', and so has my little ship left port.

curly, larry, and mo-mo can fight over what's left.

should be funnier than a carload of clowns leaving DC.

on a forklift.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 11:51 | 915937 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

No, i would say this is NOT the top.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 18:25 | 916805 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Last week Faber called a top and warned to lookout for a sharp 10% correction and a rising USD.

Maybe, don't know but after the selling final prices for Friday were very close to the previous Friday's closes.

EUR/USD 1.3615

USD/JPY 82.10

AUD/USD 0.9925

AUD/JPY 81.50

S&P 1275 vs previous at 1285

Dow 11,825 vs previous at 11,875

NAS100 2270 vs previous at 2270

DAX 7085 vs 7070

WTI OIL 89.40 vs 89.25

Another point worth making here is that the S&P sold off from 1300 to around 1275 on the 19th of Jan only to rally back to its previous top.

The sudden selling may look dramatic in the context of current price action but not convinced one day of a sharp selloff in a very o/b market means there is momentum to confirm it.

 

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 12:06 | 915968 cheesewizz
cheesewizz's picture

MO MO never ends well...

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 12:26 | 916021 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

That Vix Chart is a triple black diamond ;-)

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 18:51 | 916854 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

I was looking for piste noire and found this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p1QrlRqqHg&feature=related

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 12:28 | 916025 velobabe
velobabe's picture

i don't know how to play poke her.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 12:41 | 916051 WTF2
WTF2's picture

Buy the efing dip, not.. 

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 12:49 | 916069 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Still a stock picker's market. Even on Friday, some names popped big:

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:11 | 916416 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

We should day trade the pension funds...oh wait, we do.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:05 | 916521 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

from what i hear (and painful experience) only 4% of people make money 'stock picking'. Crap odds, Vegas is better, and so are the girls

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 17:07 | 916667 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Don't forget AVL, with it's 6.24 right after the open. Then down to 5.85, back up to 6, and to hell with where it closed - I was outta settled funds by then.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 12:53 | 916078 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

This rigged SOB market has given so many head fakes since 9/09, it puts Michael Jordan to shame. Nothing can shock me anymore. I'm at the point now where I believe any major collapse in equities will be reversed by decree -- a systemic do-over will be declared.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:19 | 916287 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Agree: collapse will not be permitted, and any measures required will be taken. Wealready crossed the Rubicon.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:02 | 916538 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

 the PPT and Feds powers are a myth like the Wizard of Oz.... how's QE1, Lite, 2 coming along? ...look at 2007-08 for QE1 results and now QE2 is coming i expect the same... the stock crash will bury the impotent Fed hopefully too! 

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:11 | 916558 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

Especially since they will need a reason to do QE3 which a crash will play nicely into

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:25 | 916590 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

yes but have you seen the Feds image lately? ..it's gone from mild respect to having a bit of a snipe at them to near all-out redicule.... even the politicians are winding up the handbags!

Only a matter of time before The Fed has to back-off to the social pressure so my monies on QE3 being a last whimper before the politicos shut em down for good 

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:38 | 916618 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

i would agree with that. they want to raise the debt ceiling and they need QE3....nothing like a little decimation of the peasantry's retirement funds to bring 'em back in line and supporting the money printing. i say we do a very short, but very painful correction here (what a joke, manipulated to a predetermined level) like down to 1180 and they prime the CNBC, Bloomberg pump to get everyone hysterical about the possible break of this number....and then.....

and then.....we raise the debt ceiling

WE BOUNCE

and then, two months later, Bennie announces QE3 to "support" the markets, and everyone, after the horrible near miss in Feb/March, just nods and goes along.

of course, by then gas is 5 bucks a gallon and the economy is literally on a respirator, but this market hasn't had anything to do with what's actually happening for well over a year now.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:56 | 916645 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

you mean the Indexes are on a respirator... they've weazed up for months like a pensioner climbing a mountain starved of oxygen, the volumes are pitiful......  i agree with your down, up, down outlook for stocks but think commodities will go with them... $5 petrol is (possibly) history ...and if the debt ceiling goes up the public are going to hammer both GOP and Dems at next election, think these old fart parties stink too much now and are both for the dustbin in the years ahead

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 18:04 | 916761 Jasper M
Jasper M's picture

Zero: Thank you. One of the more thoughtful posters I've seen here lately. 

Fed is destroying the myth of the potent directors as we speak, by revealing their own impotence. As for ridicule, Congressman Paul will be holding hearings to do just that, and an angry public will be ready to listen. Gonnna be like Watergate. 

But I disagree re petrol. People don't remember how low petro consumption can go ina depression. Most petro consumption is commercial. 

Sun, 01/30/2011 - 14:32 | 918069 cdskiller
cdskiller's picture

If Paul succeeds (and I hope he does) in building a strong enough coalition around the idea, and the Fed is finally audited, all hell will break loose. Once we find out what is in the garbage bin, trillions in worthless assets, for example, it will be very hard to defend keeping the lid on, and opacity has become essential to the scheme. Paul is playing with a fire of historic proportions. Transparency is public enemy #1.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:59 | 916383 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Michael Jordan?
The market dances like Michael Jackson in a Pepsi commercial with his hair on fire...

And Like Michael Jackson
The market is massively drugged up just to function and get to its next day's performance...

After the show the Doctors (POMO, PPT) swoop in for more plastic surgery to make the market appear prettier than Diana "Michael Jackson" Ross...

Talk about lipstick on a Pigman....

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:36 | 916614 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Rog,

I believe any major collapse in equities will be reversed by decree

 

How do you think they are where they are now??

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 12:56 | 916085 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Crowds running to Safe Havens --oil, gold-- on huge volume.

 

So maybe we will see $5 gas, $120 oil and $2,000 gold this year after all.

 

I notice when the Tunesian/Egyptian/Arab Dictators skidaddled, they grabbed their gold out fo the vaults first....fascinating is that "silly yellow metal" that everyone wants for wealth preservation.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:20 | 916293 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Gold has the advantage of being worth something under almost all conditions. Its value is  "a priori." 

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:09 | 916411 RichM
RichM's picture

This claim means precisely zilch, since one could say the same for ALL types of assets, PMs or no. For example, a share of SPY would be worth 60% of its current value even if the stock market collapsed -- but that qualifies as "something," doesn't it? Likewise, gold might easily be worth much less than its current value. It's already dropped 6% or so in a month, & no one can be certain that it's bottomed out here.

People at ZH are irrationally infatuated with PMs, & are constantly trying to convince themselves that it's "invincible." It's not invincible. Painful declines are entirely possible.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:50 | 916503 I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

You can't possibly be that stupid, really? What do all the giants have tons of?

One thing and one thing only. Not oil; not silver; nor yranium; not wheat.

As in all situations, follow the money- in this case, true money. And it has been like this for thousands of years.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:12 | 916562 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

But they can't eat it and that shit is heavy

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:38 | 916616 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Yes, that BARBARIC RELIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 17:50 | 916743 chindit13
chindit13's picture

"silly yellow metal"

Gold:  Breakfast of Despots.

On the streets of Cairo, however, I noted that those people prefer food and appear not to be concerned about silly yellow metals.  I also see that many will simply take what they want, even when faced by an entire army.  That suggests that a single metal hoarder, no matter how many guns he has nor how much practice he has done at the range, will not fare well.

I don't know what the alternative is, but as the reality playing out before us in Cairo shows, sometimes there is Zero Hedge.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 19:00 | 916862 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 23:48 | 917327 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Gold is monie, it is not necessary for survival.  What is your point?

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 13:10 | 916120 BeerGoggles
BeerGoggles's picture

The market isn't going down more than 10%, you can buy the fucking dip there.

 

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 13:14 | 916127 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Bang, bang, shoot, shoot!

I already have GOOD, not yet time to BTFD, IMHO.

Good to have you posting "up there", RobotT.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 13:18 | 916142 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

i guess F didn't make ur top 10 list. maybe u didn't notice. and GM didn't have a good day either. at least domestic oils were heading higher. don't have to be a rocket scientist for that one. CLR NOG BEXP and so on. NFLX: who r the 25% of float, brain dead morons, that r short this stock? MET PRU lots of sellers there on friday. HOT whoooaaaaa. MEE ya think the news leaked a little early? mister boring, DD, up a few cents.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 13:27 | 916160 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Wasn't your title to last week's piece the same? 

Hess-North Sea cornered, wells on Bakken, exposure in el Sur.  What happens if the Suez shuts down?

ABX means a big X.

SLW they "stream silver" and the silver river has only begun running.

High grade corporate is going to suck the muster from the dollar's lips...corporate bonds will be the better buy soon, not government...the trade is going to flip...governments will go broke, all of them at once....

Disney is a buy.  The dollar is going to hyperinflate and Krugman will retire.  Easy pieces.  The 14th amendment will insure that whoever the Supreme Court wants will be President. 

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 13:42 | 916194 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

r u talking about that birth certificate thing? because there's a few states that r going to want to see it next time around or that name ain't goin on the ballot.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 13:58 | 916235 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Is that, is that what you want ot talk about?

Well it happens that by the time America knows Barry was born on Mars or whatever, Barry will be elected President of the World by a comittee chaired by David Rockefeller and Hu Jin Tao.  But there is another side.  What if Scull and Bones outright stole poor Barry's BC?  What if he was born in Hawaii, but the proof was robbed?  Geranimo knows this story.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:08 | 916264 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

we can talk later. i don't want to ruin your high.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:14 | 916280 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Be speechless.  It is more becoming of you.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:50 | 916638 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Either the Mayor,or the Gov, has searched ALL their archives, and flatley stated their is NO BC for O in Hawaii, and this man is one of O's biggest fans.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 13:27 | 916167 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Speculative momentum investing goes both ways ... and that is the only thing that has kept the bull alive.  Risk OFF!

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 13:42 | 916189 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Short the POMO market?? Are you nuts??

Look I understand the traders broke the law on Friday and the markets tanked. This is just an aberration. Somewhere the Bernank is busy adding zeroes on his computer and making furniture in his garage.

A little early to be uttering eulogies, my friend.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:10 | 916270 11b40
11b40's picture

That is THE BIG QUESTION, isn't it?  If the hedges funds and mutual funds panic, can the Bernak print fast enough?  Can the PPT buy fast enough?  MOMO down runs faster than MOMO up.  Climbing the mountain is hard work.  Jumping off is really quick.

"Rest assured that come Monday, if the market gets smoked, the 19-year old video game console traders at TIAA-CREF, CalPERS, Fidelity, etc. will be forced to flip and go short as the FemBots will be screaming and shouting:

"If it's going down, short it!!!"

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:32 | 916605 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

and as the Herd Funds, sorry Hedge Funds, stampede for the door, the PPT and The Bernanks beard will be crushed under foot. Ahmen to that  

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 13:45 | 916204 NetworkError
NetworkError's picture

 

We’re at the stage where QE2 has been fully priced in and uncertainty about QE3 is setting in. From here, one might expect significant market declines to justify further easing, which is how Wall Street will get what it wants. 

 

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:05 | 916403 bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

+1

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 13:48 | 916213 Twindrives
Twindrives's picture

Relax Robo, your daddy Barack said everything is getting better.  Now be a good boy and go buy some more Amazon. 

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 13:53 | 916222 anony
anony's picture

Considering there seems to be tug-o-wah goin' on, what if the various markets just kinda end Monday and Tuesday within a few points either way? 

That's the only truly contrarian play at this point.

 

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:01 | 916238 d00daa
d00daa's picture

Uhhh, sorry Robot, XLF and XRT look terrible.

DJT cracks 50dma with a vengence.

Multi-year bear wedges forming across all the majors.  You guys need to take a look at your weekly and monthly charts once in a while.

There will need to be some historic dip-buying on Monday if they're going to save this pig.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:00 | 916240 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

On Friday I locked in some nice gains on several names.

Stayed in some cash, but also immediately put some of it back to work on some already-beaten-down values.

 

May be time for an overall market pullback, but I agree that it is a stock-pickers' market out there.

Good luck to all... long, short or neutral!  : )

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:16 | 916283 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You want a cookie?

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:00 | 916390 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Trimmed hedge wants something more satisfying than a cookie.

Set........and.....

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 17:20 | 916691 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 

match?

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 17:56 | 916753 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Actually, I was setting the ball for someone else to "spike" it (volley ball terms). I see lots of naughty possibilities.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:13 | 916276 Zender67
Zender67's picture

RobotTrader -

Thank you! 

Have always appreciated your articles and comments. 

Question:  could we see some "May 6, 2010-like flash crashes" in this turbulent market Monday?

If "potentially 'yes'" what are some candidates to consider for deep discount limit buy orders?

In "adversity" there is"opportunity".

Thx!

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:14 | 916277 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I think Robo is right (and that doesn't happen often!). I bought some PM miners and shorted few "prominent" names.

 

Next week is lunar New Year, so China and surrounding countries will be quiet - lower volume throughout next week. I wonder if that will impact PMs in any way.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:55 | 916649 DosZap
DosZap's picture

It already has, they have NO Gold or Silver to sell.

They are OUT.Should be good for the metals.

Anyone who doesn't jump on Silver before Asia Mkt opens Sun, is going to miss a major run up.

$28.00oz, will be $30.00 by Mon evening or more.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:22 | 916295 Bernank Sheeple
Bernank Sheeple's picture

"Nothing to see here, move along" My uncle Ben says he will tap the gas pedal a little, everybody will forget about any down days. 

Anyway, Egypt - oil should have moved earilier in the week, one day spike was deleayed for some reason, maybe it really was just following the euro not the riots, seems like euro is an easy tell these days for oil & gold, just saying.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:28 | 916311 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Be this a real turning of the market or not...all I can say is that Friday was by far my best trading day of the year.

that said....

one other thing I noticed was that SPY broke the 200mil volume mark for the first time since early December. 200 mil used to be an average day...no mas...the market now trades on vapor...unless it's selling.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:28 | 916314 Rick64
Rick64's picture

 Very good analysis RT. The next 5 trading days or less will give more clarity

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:28 | 916315 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

Top guys in Beijing are playing the fiddle waiting to pick up the pieces while Russians are playing the accordian . Watch price of oil next week, keep eye on Suez canal traffic and remember Egypt exports oil to Israel, quality cotton, and Black Swans to rest of world.  US exports mostly armaments to Egypt including tear gas cannisters.

Upside is great excursion and cruise rates to Egypt

Perhaps we should send Giethner, Dimon and Bernanke to Egypt to explain how we in the US handle  problems of income disparity,unemployment and white collar corruption. Better yet, pull troops out of Afganistan and deploy to Egypt in order to seat another Karzai  

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:57 | 916525 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

the egyptians of all political persuasions know they need the suez.  It's not going to close.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 14:47 | 916363 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Every asshole "trader" in the world has the same fukking charts - beware the hammer top outside day downside reversal VIX spike Hindenburg Omen

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:16 | 916425 d00daa
d00daa's picture

Someone got piledrived like a penny whore on Friday...

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:53 | 916514 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

yeah.  It only took one ass pounding before I learned my lesson.  I will capitulate at the bottom.  You will too, guaranteed.  The only way to avoid that is to have sell discipline and take that five percent loss and don't look back.  Let your winners run, but never let your losses run, unless of course you like being pile drived like a penny whore on friday (some do!).

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:03 | 916398 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

That's what I got from Friday's action too and I didn't even need to look at a single chart to figure it out. Sometimes you're too smart for your own good Robot. All eyes on Oil/Gold/Silver and and how they respond to a retreating stock market. My gut tells me they will continue behaving like they are supposed to...Inversely. Interestingly the Noble metals have stagnated and Gold/Silver now take the lead. Friday Jan. 28th was not your ordinary day. Things have changed.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:14 | 916419 thepigman
thepigman's picture

I submit that so many people
have come to realize that the market is Berspanky's fraud, that no one
outside of the primary dealer
and hedge fund community gives a damn what it does.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:30 | 916451 Quintus
Quintus's picture

I am having trouble accepting the idea that the Fed will give up on its 4th mandate so easily and permit stocks to decline two days in a row.  They, I am sure, are well aware that it is only the implicit guarantee of 'Upward only' stock index movement by the Fed that is levitating that pig.  Can they afford to have confidence shaken and trigger a mass exodus?  It'll be interesting to see.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:48 | 916496 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

The fed is playing for time.  They need the GDP to get going before core inflation gets going.  Every once in a while the flames need to be doused. The feds would be quite happy with a pause that refreshes, even a ten percent correction in everything except the dollar and long dated treasuries.   A little bit of a deflationary scare and and risk off trading is ok and possibly welcomed right now.  I am sorely tempted to jump out of the market entirely tomorrow.  I don't see this increase in oil lasting much longer.  Riot fatigue will set in eventually, and then Paris Hilton will distract us again.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:44 | 916484 LexLuger
LexLuger's picture

(I enjoy playing devil's advocate)

Remember that head and shoulders that wasn't last summer?(Or was it two summers ago?)

Anyway, the trend is still up.

I'm buying calls.

Just watch.

____________________

New futures trading room using ThinkorSwim opening soon.  

http://www.tosfuturestrading.com/alpha.html

 

 

 

 

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:49 | 916501 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

you are a fucking toll and I love you.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:58 | 916530 d00daa
d00daa's picture

So you're the guy I've been selling to.

Check your weekly and monthly charts.  It should become apparent to you that there is a significant difference between this setup and summer '09.

If you can't see the obviousness of what I'm referring to, you should probably be in cash.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 15:47 | 916494 Frank Redner
Frank Redner's picture

sold all USD holdings, and expect to reenter during the next 2 weeks; A lot of people will think of selling over the weekend; if rigged or not in both cases the market will have to correct at least 5% at some point and now the odds are good we reached that point. NFLX up is insane by the way ;)

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:11 | 916557 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

They can always blame it on Egypt when the market go down.

I do sure hope the market goes down :)

I've got some nice puts close to in the money that cane make some good money but they expire in 6 weeks so it would be nice.

 

 

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:16 | 916570 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

does this clown calling itself robottrader remember from day to day what he says?

"Pretty soon, the CRB index will crash out, food prices will return to normal, and these riots will be long forgotten."

1/14/11 robottrader

"Never bet against the house."

1/20/11 robottrader

"Heh, all this talk about "when the world falls apart"

"I'm deeply sorry for those of you who clung on to the gloomer, end of the world view and lost your shirts being short."

1/14/11 robottrader

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:35 | 916611 erik
erik's picture

i'm sure we can find examples of all of us being wrong, but his demeanor in those comments was childish, and you've rightfully called that out.  condescending remarks have no place here.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:58 | 916651 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

erik, respectfully, to say that "condescending remarks have no place here" is akin to captain renault telling rick blaine that he was astonished to learn that gambling was going on in rick's american bar.

our good buddy robottrader has all but made a living smearing, sliming and mocking men of accomplishment (unlike robottrader himself) such as jim sinclair, eric king and nic lenoir.

he has made all effort to mock any and every person that dares to claim skepticism about the market's potential to drop, only to now write wonderingly that the market may have topped.

so i ask you what is the difference between those bears he mocks and himself.

robottrader is a hypocrite personified.

don't take my word for it though. do a simple search for yourself. then school me on condescending remarks.

 

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 18:06 | 916775 erik
erik's picture

sorry lieutenant, i was referring to Robot's condescending remarks over the last several months, not your comment.  sometimes it is necessary to pay disrespect with disrespect.  i am not above the fray or perfect but i try to refrain from making incendiary remarks unless provoked. 

i think gloating is hideous, and Robot has been guilty of that recently.

overall i just think it is unfortunate that the board has so much antipathy and ego.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 18:22 | 916801 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

ok. got it. sometimes it's hard to interpret a poster's comment.

any who, robottrader is so over the top in absurd, contradictory, 180 degree opposite comments from day to day that rebutting him is not even competitive because he has left a paper trail 10 miles wide.

earlier this week he was mocking nic lenoir's - nic lenoir smoked again i remember him writing - bearish call(s).

only now we see robottrader saying the same thing as nic within but a day or two. robottrader is a joke.

Sun, 01/30/2011 - 00:11 | 917348 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

Hey , why don't you both toughen up puppy dawgs. Let Robo spew his info, and you can spew your retorts. Quit freakin crying about him being condescending etc. Who gives a shit if he gets arrogant or runs his mouth about the markets vs. gold.  I know reality, and anyone who bought precious metals for the last ten years did awesome ( with plenty of occasional serious pullbacks ) without ever looking at a chart or doing any work at all, just having enough balls to hang in there.   

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:33 | 916607 Brokenarrow
Brokenarrow's picture

But, but,but,but....Robo? What happened to your "berneke put" theory?

Did you forget what you have been posting for weeks?

I guess the Fed will stop POMO and the PD's wont have any more free chips to bet.

All you fuckers talk out of both sides of your mouth so often it makes me laugh

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 16:59 | 916655 prophet
prophet's picture

More than a few indicators are showing extremes and there are conflicts.

Except during waterfall declines:

10P VIX spikes tend to lead to next day mkt rebounds.

SPX closing a month at the lower part of its range tend to lead to up months.

First day of month tends to be up.

Turnaround Tuesday effect.

Lots of conflicts to resolve and plan your positions. 

There are also sentiment indicators and percent of stocks above various MAs to consider.  What else are people keying on here?

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 18:18 | 916791 erik
erik's picture

prophet, good list.  i have 5 key leading indicators that i follow.  copper & FCX, crude, retail, 10 year, USD.

retail is not a good leading indicator for a correction, but rather a potential overall market top.  it dropped one month before everything else in mid-2007.

i ran the numbers on first day and last day of the month for the last two years.  0.6% avg gain on first day.  -0.6% avg loss on last day.  given that, you have to expect Monday will be a down day statistics wise and Tuesday will be an up day.  HOWEVER, the pattern of recent tops loudly says the exact opposite, that Monday will be up big, and Tuesday will be down big.

unfortunately, we just have to wait and see which precedent wins out.  i am very disappointed that the precedents do not line up!  i only have a small allocation in SPY puts right now (opened mid-Thurs), and i am looking to up it significantly.

if i had to guess, i'd say we re-visit ~1290 before the correction takes hold for good.  around 1290 is where i will sink my teeth into some more SPY puts.

Sun, 01/30/2011 - 00:52 | 917388 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

For what it is worth I think the market probably has a cement cap at the recent highs given the implications of civil unrest in Egypt so if there is an up day then looking to sell into rallies and will probably add to existing shorts into the Sunday open.

Faber called for a market correction in the order of 10% for US and European equities, a rally for USD and a deeper selloff in EMs just last week and also said he thought it was close.

I guess he was not totally wrong.

 

As an afterthought I suppose the FED can pull the miracle of miracles and delievr a POMOtion to EGYPT along with USAF dropped out of the sky foodstamps for every Egyptian man woman and child hungry and on the street.........it is all about the price, right.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 17:15 | 916682 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Tops are sooooo yesterday.  Just stay away from the momos.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 17:44 | 916734 Thorny Xi
Thorny Xi's picture

The margin calls forcing sales in SLV, driving down physical .. smells like victory.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 18:03 | 916768 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

don't try to hide in oil or precious metals.  If the market goes down seriously, then commodities won't be far behind.  I'm getting ready to sell my energy stocks too.  Egyptians may be breeding like rabbits and never take a bath.  They may be ignorant and poorly educated, but they are not stupid.   None of the various factions wants to close the suez.  Everything is still looking a bit toppish except the dollar and long dated treasuries, at least to this humble troll.  Is there anybody anywhere even on mainstream sites that has a kind word to say about treasuries?  Names please?

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 18:26 | 916806 erik
erik's picture

the USD's only hope is that the fiscal insanity stops; however, it could catch some serious support with the ongoing geopolitical issues.  the USD increasing is the final necessary ingredient in the leading indicators i follow for predicting a correction.  friday was good, but we need follow through next week.  i expect that we'll see that.

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 19:00 | 916868 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Funny, coming from another Husky.

Go Judy NiCastro!  To hell....

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 18:17 | 916790 10044
10044's picture

dude, BofA prime brokerage became BNP Paribas as of Oct 2008

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 22:56 | 917263 max2205
max2205's picture

This a stick save for oil. It was screaming toward a total chart breakdown early in the week. This could be a reaction move up that may not hold Well see by next Friday

Sat, 01/29/2011 - 23:43 | 917320 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Figrues robo would advise people to short it.

DO NOT SHORT THIS MARKET.

If it's going down let it take the black hole plunge not you shorting a ladder for it.

Sun, 01/30/2011 - 07:50 | 917599 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

Will be watching the initial open in futures like a hawk . After that sharp decline on Friday things may drift for a bit . Tops are often choppy .

Sun, 01/30/2011 - 14:25 | 918051 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

So this now cancels your "Risk on baby!" comment from last week after bashing Nic's work?

Sun, 01/30/2011 - 14:59 | 918137 Tsunami Effect
Tsunami Effect's picture

Robo has been pretty damn good with the direction of the markets.  Things change and good traders change their opinion as a result.

The market SHOULD crash (-20%) here, but will it?  I think NOT.

Two forces in place that prevent that from happening.

PPT and POMO

Plunge Protection Team will buy futures if market unwinds.   Unless the middle east explodes into all out riots, market correction will be "fixed" by massive PPT futures buying.

POMO - Come on BB just admit it is digitally creating money (not technically printing b/c that takes too long)!  Look at the charts over the past two years.  When POMO is on, nothing, but nothing caused a 10% correction.  BUT from March to Aug '10, when POMO was off, yes, vol up and market down due to the European crisis.  Remember way back when, EU was imploding and the Euro was going to go back to 80c!  The US mkt crumbled.

So, my 2c is that yes, mkt gets hammered.  BUT, the forces of the FED will drive stability and a return to a low vol, sharp rebound once the "crisis" is worked out sometime this week.

For the conspiracy theorists out there, just look at that "military hardware" over in Egypt.  That stuff looks like 30 years old.  Its all about money at this point for regime change.  How much does Mubarak get paid out and where, and how much of the 1.5B in aid goes into the hands of the next leader's pockets. 

Sun, 01/30/2011 - 17:21 | 918551 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

I agree with your assessment to an extent...yet propping up the market will not work when margin calls flood the system...everyone was convinced the market would never fall in 2008 either so beware of linear thinking.

Sun, 01/30/2011 - 15:02 | 918151 omer10
omer10's picture

@lieutenantjohnchard  

some people are just ideoogical here.after robos posts dated 1/14 and 1/20 SPX reached 1300, just at friday open. Robo was right in both predicting market would go up. 

It is not a vice but a virtue to change views when facts change, what is important is if you understand the change properly, and in promptly enough. No one can do this 100%, we will see if Robo will be right this time too.

Robo is not always bullish. I remember well when market threatened to close below 1175 in November he posted comment whether to dump it all at the close. He turned bullish next day, as the tape turned he was right.

Nic lenoir is the real clown. He/she called at a top at 1160,  1220-30, and later never explanied that he was wrong or why, just changed his gloomy views to Eurodolar,other things, and he writes as if he knows everything to knows eveything, with undeserved certainity. Check those posts and ater ones.

Robo is the only valuable contributor and most valuable poster in this site in my view. And dont lump him together with Wanker or Leo, fisrt jad nothing valuable to say, 2nd tries to have aniche writing about pension, I think it is worthless bullshit.

Robo is the man.

Sun, 01/30/2011 - 16:13 | 918294 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Potemkin market is made of paper. It will eventually fall over because there is nothing real supporting it.

Sun, 01/30/2011 - 17:37 | 918595 velobabe
velobabe's picture

i think there is insider trading going on @zerohedge.

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