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Did The Market Top This Week?

Submitted by RobotTrader on 01/21/2011 17:30 -0400

I'm just one guy, but here's how I'm watching it.

Checklist for new bear market developing:

1) Financials underperforming? Nope

2) QQQQ and IWM underperforming? Yep

3) Retail stocks underperforming? Yep, but only slightly.

4) Emerging Markets underperforming? Yep.

5) "Midnight Massacre" approaching in commodities? Not yet.

6) Dollar rallying? Nope.

7) Summation Index going down? Yep

For right now, I'm still neutral. But the green light is on to start picking up some shorts in individual stocks. However, here is what I don't like to see when considering going short the broad indexes right now:

Dow closing at new highs today.

Big cap techs acting strong:

Derivative-laden finance companies masquerading as manufacturing conglomerates making new highs:

Credit card stocks on fire:

Regional Banks choking on commercial RE pinned at new highs:

PIIGS Banks going vertical:

There are plenty of weak stocks out there, especially the mo-mo tech names. Might be OK to short the weaker ones as long as the Summation Index is going down. But believe it or not, the McClellan Oscillator is already approaching oversold levels.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html

So you might be able to stay short a few days, but then you could get whiplashed.

By the way the QQQQ is at a "Do or Die" point:

So maybe a rotation going on, out of mo-mo techs and into big cap "value" stocks that pay dividends?

Money never seems to leave the casino, it just moves from one craps table to another.

Chart of the Day:

Tempur-Pedic rockets to new highs on earnings.... Hey, I thought furniture stocks were dead?

- advertisements -

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 17:31 | 894565 AnAnonymous

Need a bit of money by traffic?

Sometimes, finding a new supply of chips helps to go and seat back at the casino table.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:14 | 894671 covert

beautiful numbers and art. looks like recovery ahead.

http://covert2.wordpress.com

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:25 | 894698 lilimarlene1

Woah~! Went to your blog. It's gonna take me all night to slog through all that info! But, good effort!

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 19:11 | 894778 El Hosel

"I thought furniture stocks were dead?"

How to kill a Zombie, .... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMEKKSmsVJs&feature=related

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 17:39 | 894589 RobotTrader

Penny stock junkies having fun with Fannie Mae..

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 19:11 | 894780 Sudden Debt

WHO BUYS THAT SHIT?!

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 17:56 | 894628 Logans_Run

She is smiling at me off to her right and out of the picture.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:36 | 894722 Raincheck

Sorry, she appears to be much more interested in what's on HER left.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 19:03 | 894758 Logans_Run

Yeah that is the way things work with me! She has to smile and look away to hide the fear that she would otherwise express.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 17:57 | 894632 ihedgemyhedges

Money McBags kix ur arse......

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 17:59 | 894636 JW n FL

Tip Top Mr. Robo Sir! will that be all for the evening?

Thanks! Great Job!

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 22:28 | 895121 RoRoTrader

Second your sentiments, JW.......one stop summation, no pun intended........nice to see a headline post by the venerable RobotTrader.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:08 | 894658 Sutton

And Japanese housewives have loaded up on emerging market currencies.

Lookout beloooooooooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwww

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:15 | 894668 Arkadaba

Thanks for the observations. For the first time in a while not tempted to junk you!

Edit: but would still like some eye candy for the minority gender that visits this site ;)

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:15 | 894672 bluemaster

Robo here you are monthly charts . I am long ASX 200 (SPI). http://www.ac.com.au/images/monthly.jpg

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:19 | 894680 RobotTrader

Tanker stocks blowtorched today.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?nat,vlccf,fro,gmr,tk,osg,tnp,exm,dsx,gnk|C

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 20:19 | 894876 Freddie

Wat's up wit dat? They got killed. I wonder if oil shipments are slower than expected?

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 22:52 | 895147 El Hosel

"Wat's up wit dat?"

Don'y you worry son, go out and buy a new mattress. It not the tankers stocks turn to play yet.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:21 | 894683 Cursive

Ever heard od opex? Crazy whipsaws from the generals. Check back in a week.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 23:11 | 895167 GoinFawr

As we say where I am to on non-deliveriers:

C-U-Next-Tuesday

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:51 | 894684 Spalding_Smailes

Hey Robo -

http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9592582

Thanks for all your links ^ - ( podcast - links/IBD high flyers ect .... ) !!!!

What other traders do you follow w/ podcast ect ......

This was great -----

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2010-1229-1.mp3

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:22 | 894687 lilimarlene1

Rob is thorough and professional. He's also humble. I learn from his posts. I learn stuff I don't know if I want to know from Money McBags, but he's very smart as well. Rob, I am not sure what you mean by mo mo techs?

Have a great weekend with your honey pie, and thanks!~!

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 20:13 | 894868 Arkadaba

Googled mo mo techs but did not find any reasonable definition.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 20:42 | 894924 blunderdog

"mo mo techs" are tech-company stocks that are famed for being hyped and ridden by "mo mo" traders--the guys who buy stuff when it starts going up and getting lots of positive press with the intention of jumping out before a reversal.

Ignore unless you're really a jargon afficionado and/or trying to be a day trader.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 20:47 | 894931 lilimarlene1

Thank you, b-dog!

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 21:05 | 894976 Spalding_Smailes

Momentum trader

Pattern recognition trader

Trend trader

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2010-1229-1.mp3

Sat, 01/22/2011 - 10:01 | 895584 lilimarlene1

Hey, I got junked for the first time. What a Sally Fields moment!

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:26 | 894701 Common_Cents22

Yesterday I got an unsolicited Chase Visa w/ 15k credit limit. woo hoo, let the good times roll again!

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:33 | 894714 SwingForce

Congrats at Guesting, nice job. XLF retraced 61.4%

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:50 | 894746 Spalding_Smailes

TSX ~

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TSX&p=1&b=5&g=0&id=p64680478953

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:56 | 894751 Jasper M

"Derivative-laden finance companies masquerading as manufacturing conglomerates – GE"

Fucking PRICEless!

(Don't know why so any people hate Robo – did he dare to doubt gold, or AAPL?)

Sat, 01/22/2011 - 13:01 | 895775 wackyquacker

same here. I don't know why people be hatin' on him (her?). Keep 'em comin', robot.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 19:06 | 894769 sheep92

U missed the two most important charts.

long bond -- more hammering this week. broke out to new yield high

r2000 - down 4%

markets go up and down on liquidity. EM liquidity is getting squeezed. That's why gold is no longer performing. There will be no qe3 until something else breaks. Between now and then equities are going to suck. At the end it will only be xom going higher. we are pretty much there.

oversold oscillator is not a sign of a bounce. There have been no declines for two months. Buying the dip on more than an hourly basis is going to be suicide.

Have you sold your PM stocks yet???

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 19:09 | 894776 Spalding_Smailes

Thanks. Good info -

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 19:06 | 894770 Everybodys All ...

You might want to keep your eye on the bond market. Especially serious if the 30 and 10 year break into the 118 level as this would forcast much higher interest rates.

Also a big heads up as to the Irish debt situation as all my readings say this mess is only getting started. Cowan gets tossed and a newly formed government walks away from the debt is very possible.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 19:20 | 894791 Gary Busey

Been too long, glad you're back

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 19:20 | 894793 Hedgetard55

Robo,

So the answer to the title question of your post is a definitive "Maybe, maybe not".

Thanks dude.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 22:50 | 895146 blind squirrel

Exactly. How many times have I heard guys from the Street say 'We think the market is going up but there could be a correction first'. So basically can't be wrong. Give me a break.

A good call says I think there is xx% upside potential risking yy% downside potential over tt timeframe.

Unfortunately I don't have a good call at the moment...I'm flat and nervous : )

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 19:39 | 894813 Spalding_Smailes

FSN In Depth: A Gary Shilling, The Age of Deleveraging 01-19-2011

http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0119-1.mp3

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 20:00 | 894839 Buttcathead

I aint buy'n or short'n none of that shit. It's rigged ! Banksters aint good for nuttin but lie'n cheat'n and steel'n. F'em ... Bernack can buy all that over priced shit he wants with his digital fake so called money. good grief Charlie Brown

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 20:04 | 894847 Careless Whisper

robo, you didn't mention the elephant in the room, so here goes:

8) AAPL down on blowout earnings and strong forecast.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 21:07 | 894981 AccreditedEYE

+100 Indeed. Also, good to see you on the top deck Robo. (And to see u at all Careless... where u been?!)

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 22:25 | 895116 DoctoRx

Also, GOOG reversing down

And re financials: GS, BAC, C, AIG down on the week. Yes the fundamentals justify a relative reweighting to the Dow stocks, but that often happens in the setting of a pullback or full-fledged correction.

IMHO stocks are trading as commodities, and Cu and oil are vulnerable here.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 20:13 | 894870 SwingForce

You have a blog?

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 20:43 | 894928 Buck Johnson

I think we are on our way down for the market, and it seems they wanted to wait until the start of the new year. The problem with trying to manipulate a market as big as this, is that some consequences of your manipulation may not show up for months or years and then when it does show up you can't fix it overnight. It may take just as long to fix it IF IF you do what's supposed to be done to fix it. And if not then you compound the consequences exponentially.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 20:58 | 894955 Lucius Corneliu...

Did you notice the non-confirmation in the Transports?

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 22:56 | 895155 blind squirrel

That's a point well taken. thanks.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 21:05 | 894978 fedspeak

http://chart.ly/s5i36bs

One Picture (s) is worth a thousand words. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 close to a Sell Signal with the Dow 12,000 level appearing to be the top. Looks like the 2 animated Bears were not 'Bearish' enough on the Gold and Silver story earlier in the Month....

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 21:14 | 894990 99er

Maybe.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/01/es_9185.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 22:15 | 895096 Rogerwilco

Market topping? Not relevant anymore. What we have now is more like Kabuki theater than anything resembling a free market. Obama is even auditioning a new character, one Jeffrey Immelt, to try and keep the crowds coming. His debut script is loosely titled "Fascist Samurai and the Abandoned Garden of Rules", sure to be a favorite with audiences east and west.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 23:26 | 895195 GoinFawr

Immeltdown Imminent?

<Repost, I know; but resistance was futile>

Sat, 01/22/2011 - 17:36 | 896223 ExploitTheMarket

My longs are doing just fine - for example, BLK and LLL...you just have to be in the right issues and know how the money rotates. If they show weakness I don't hesitate for a second to drop them...

Sat, 01/22/2011 - 20:56 | 896495 Lucius Corneliu...

You are not long an equity if you are sitting by the computer every day waiting to bail out at the first sign of expected trouble. That is a speculative position plain and simple.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 00:56 | 896745 ExploitTheMarket

long - want it to go up, short - want it to go down. next time I will be more clear. And unfortunately, given the nature of financial markets (because we do not have free markets) most are forced to trade like this, I used to buy and hold, but that has not worked in the last 10 yrs or so.... Don't hate the player, hate the game.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 01:58 | 896788 Lucius Corneliu...

I don't hate anyone. I was just trying to make the point that you did about the markets over the past 10 years. Personally, I prefer to stay out of the casino because the house always wins. When the S&P is yielding > 6% then maybe I'll consider buying stocks.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 04:23 | 898269 co2010

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Did The Market Top This Week?

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