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Did WikiLeaks Confirm "Peak Oil"? Saudi Said To Have Overstated Crude Oil Reserves By 300 Billion Barrels (40%)
In what can be the "Holy Grail" moment for the peak oil movement, Wikileaks has just released 4 cables that may confirm that as broadly speculated by the peak oil "fringe", the theories about an imminent crude crunch may be in fact true. As the Guardian reports on 4 just declassified cables, "The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show. The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%." Could the OPEC cartel's capacity for virtually unlimited supply expansion to keep up with demand have been nothing but a bluff? That is the case according to Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, who met with the US consul general in Riyadh in November 2007 and "told the US diplomat that Aramco's 12.5m barrel-a-day capacity needed to keep a lid on prices could not be reached." And yes, that conspiracy concept of peak oil is specifically referenced: "According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 – global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch point is known as "peak oil"." And it gets worse: "Husseini said that at that point Aramco would not be able to stop the rise of global oil prices because the Saudi energy industry had overstated its recoverable reserves to spur foreign investment. He argued that Aramco had badly underestimated the time needed to bring new oil on tap." Look for Saudi Arabia to go into full damage control mode, alleging that these cables reference nothing but lies. In the meantime, look for China to continue quietly stockpiling the one asset which as was just pointed out is the key one to hold, for both bulls and bears, according to Marc Faber.
More from the Guardian:
One cable said: "According to al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy optimists would like to portray."
It went on: "In a presentation, Abdallah al-Saif, current Aramco senior vice-president for exploration, reported that Aramco has 716bn barrels of total reserves, of which 51% are recoverable, and that in 20 years Aramco will have 900bn barrels of reserves.
"Al-Husseini disagrees with this analysis, believing Aramco's reserves are overstated by as much as 300bn barrels. In his view once 50% of original proven reserves has been reached … a steady output in decline will ensue and no amount of effort will be able to stop it. He believes that what will result is a plateau in total output that will last approximately 15 years followed by decreasing output."
The US consul then told Washington: "While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered."
Seven months later, the US embassy in Riyadh went further in two more cables. "Our mission now questions how much the Saudis can now substantively influence the crude markets over the long term. Clearly they can drive prices up, but we question whether they any longer have the power to drive prices down for a prolonged period."
A fourth cable, in October 2009, claimed that escalating electricity demand by Saudi Arabia may further constrain Saudi oil exports. "Demand [for electricity] is expected to grow 10% a year over the next decade as a result of population and economic growth. As a result it will need to double its generation capacity to 68,000MW in 2018," it said.
It also reported major project delays and accidents as "evidence that the Saudi Aramco is having to run harder to stay in place – to replace the decline in existing production." While fears of premature "peak oil" and Saudi production problems had been expressed before, no US official has come close to saying this in public.
The conclusion:
Jeremy Leggett, convenor of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security, said: "We are asleep at the wheel here: choosing to ignore a threat to the global economy that is quite as bad as the credit crunch, quite possibly worse."
Obviously, if true, the implications of this discovery are massive, and will have a huge impact on the price of oil imminently.
The four key cables can be found at the links below.
- Saudi oil company oversold ability to increase production, embassy told
- Saudi Arabia tackles western shift towards energy independence
- US queries Saudi Arabia's influence over oil prices
- US concern over Saudi Arabia oil production
»
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And though you and I have argued over semantics in the past, I tend to agree with your sentiment more often than not.
Colonel, hopefully many more will arrive at a similar conclusion that Govt is a piece of criminal parasitical crap (you could put it more eloquently than me no doubt;)
So Mass Genocide is the plan, eh.
I'll opt for something different, thanks.
Whether or not Peak Oil is real, we're really fucking up the biosphere because of the way in which our world operates. And that, fundamentally, is what must change.
You think we can kill our way out of this problem ... fair enough, I suppose. But I think humanity is capable of devising something a bit more worthwhile.
A belief based on what evidence, exactly?
I hate the idea of agreeing with CrashIsOptimisic, but the concept is really quite simple. Oil represents energy, a subsitute for human labor. Faced with the decision to (a) pull an ox cart myself for 10 years; or (b) kill a stranger and take his oil; I will choose (b). And even if I don't, enough other people will.
Yes, the whole moral equivalency thing.
If you are starving to death, is it considered morally acceptable to steal food?
If your neighbor possesses something that would make your life more comfortable, is it considered morally acceptable to kill your neighbor and steal his possession(s)?
Makes me want to dig out my Immanuel Kant. My favorite quote:
"He who is cruel to animals becomes hard also in his dealings with men. We can judge the heart of a man by his treatment of animals." -- Immanuel Kant
Really? I would get an ox. Two actually. Male and female.
Humans are not labor. Humans are thought machines. We are best used to create and improve processes that run with minimal physical human interventions. If oil is not available as a motive source, there are many alternatives. Some high tech (graphene solar panels), medium tech (primative windmill), or low tech (oxen).
tdood, you're thinking about a deep derivative here. You're making a mistake, but you're on top of the 2nd derivative for sure.
See, humans are thought machines when and only when there is time to think. Without oil, women would not have the right to vote. Without oil, the time required to get food consumed the day's hours.
The 17th and 18th century had aristocracies who had time to think, but they were such a small number of the population that progress was very slow, technologically, and socially.
Only oil changed that. Yeah, you can make a case for steam 50 years before oil arrived in the early 1900s as freeing up some modest amount of manpower, but steam did not revolutionize agriculture, and agriculture and transport was all that mattered.
Steam engines didn't have enough oomph to refrigerate train cars. They also had to stop every so often of miles to refill the water tank -- far more so than a diesel tank. Steam mattered, but it could not really transport food well, and it certainly could not plow 10s of thousands of acres.
And so . . . no, humans are not thought machines. They are survival machines. They spend their time higher on Maslow's hierarchy where there is time to think only when oil lifts them up there. Without it, we're headed back down.
Very few people on the face of this planet understand what you just said so concisely. Great comment.
Yes. People think 100's of years of polution just 'goes away'. It doesn't circulate back into our food, water, and air supply. It just vanishes
Some people have never heard of a process called "oxidation". It tends to occur when high energy photons collide with certain pollutants.
My friends, things are going to get very bad. We have around 7 billion people on this earth. Our food production and delivery systems are to a very large extent based on oil. We will not be able to feed 7 billion people for much longer. Food inflation is not only caused by the Fed's monetary policies, but also by surging input costs and filling pollution sinks.
I am sorry that so many people on this site have probably not gone through acceptance of peak oil. It is not a good thing to have happen to you, but it must. Know that our largest bubble ever is about to be popped by the pin that is peak oil.
It is painful, but you must prepare yourself mentally for the real future before you can move forward.
This monetary crisis is just a human-made symptom of the reaction to peak oil. It is an early reaction and the later reactions will likely be much worse. Prepare yourself now!
++ 2 Prepare.
Agree with you 100%. Peak Oil implies launching nuclear weapons against China AND India at some point. Junk my post if you like, but you cannot deny these facts:
1. The US has started 2 wars over oil (Gulf War I and II). Do you think we will stop with just 2 wars? Or do you think we will keep going?
2. The US owes China a shitload of money. Do you think we can ever pay them back?
Either we become China's bitch and stop driving our SUVs or we ELECT another Harry Truman that will nuke China and India. Are you going to stop driving your cars and become China's bitch? Fork over 50% of your earnings in taxes to repay them? How about your children and grandchildren?
Or are you going to grow some bones and fix problems the American way? With WAR.
How did we acquire California and most of the western states? Did we purchase it from Mexico? Or did we fucking invade them and killed a shitload of Mexicans for that land?
WE TAKE THINGS BY FORCE! WE WILL ALWAYS TAKE THINGS BY FORCE. GET THAT THROUGH YOUR THICK HEADS.
How do you think we will stop China and India from using OUR oil? By talking nicely to them or by launching nuclear weapons and stopping their use of our oil once and for all?
George Orwell
ELECT another Harry Truman that will nuke China ????????????
Truman refused to nuke China. McArthur wanted to.
Why do you need another Harry Truman to nuke China when the previous incarnation specificly refused to do so? Why are you so enarmoured of Harry Truman?
Does your love of Harry have anything to do with your enjoyment at taking?
You are obviously posting from an alternate universe...
Can I borrow your skittle-farting unicorn?
Hulk and Mad Max
Both being fictional heros you rarely venture into reality. The US is possibly the most resource rich country on the planet. You have 100's of years of both coal and oil most of which is banned by your own US Govt from exploitation (ie. corruption of the free market).
The US Govts mangling in every facet of the free market is patent in other markets. Try to get your heads out of your fictional rectums someday, and welcome to reality of your bent Banana Republic
Who needs the middleman?
Leave it to the banker-gangsters and tar-babies to determine how Uncle Sam gets raped!
Seems like a wonderful idea.
Hooray for Capitalism!!
You have absolutely no clue.
To toss in some added irony, you're talking to two users who live on farms (which they actually work themselves) and, unless I'm mistaken about Hulk, both of us have real science degrees.
The likely presence of a resource in scattered thin spots under millions of tons of earth is enormously different from having a pile of pure coal sitting next to a power plant ready to burn. You need to understand the difference between resource and reserve.
Apart from that, the US does have fairly substantial reserves of oil left, and among the world's greatest reserves of coal. But we consume both at fantastic rates. Any idea that we have 100's of years of either one requires either 1000%+ improvements in efficiency, or the elimination of perhaps 90% or more of our energy use (which tends to be difficult as our population keeps growing). You figure it out.
Yes I have a clue:
6 Trillion barrels of oil are estimated in the US Oil-Shale http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/npr/Oil_Shale_Resource_Fact_Sheet.pdf
986 Billion barrels of oil using Coal-to-Liquids conversion of US Coal Reserve http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/npr/Coal_to_FT_Liquids_Fact_Sheet.pdf
100 Billion barrels of heavy oil are estimated in the US
- 89 Billion barrels of immobile oil are estimated using CO2 injection in the US
- 86 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf
- 60 to 80 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in U.S. Tar Sands
- 32 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in NPRA and the Central North Slope in Alaska
- 167 Billion (potential) barrels of oil est. in US Bakken shale, N.Dakota & Montana
- 3.65 Billion barrels of oil are est. in Devonian-Mississippian Bakken Formation
- 1.6 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Eastern Great Basin Province
- 1.3 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Permian Basin Province
- 1.1 Billion barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Powder River Basin Province
- 990 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Portion of the Michigan Basin
- 393 Million barrels of oil are estimated in San Joaquin Basin Province, California
- 214 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Illinois Basin
- 172 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Yukon Flats, East-Central Alaska
- 131 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Southwestern Wyoming Province
- 109 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Montana Thrust Belt Province
- 104 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Denver Basin Province
- 99 Million barrels of oil are estimated in the U.S. Bend Arch-Fort Worth Basin
you understand NOTHING.
You do not grasp that reserves do not equal production. Production matters, reserves do not.
You can't grasp EROI either.
You are thinking in terms of the existing rule set. Do you think a military dictatorship in the US would have any silly environmental laws?
Everyone want to draw a straight line interpolation from the present state to a degraded state without considering the posibility of sudden and radical upheaval. Ask Mubarik about this.
WTF did I say that in any way had anything to do with who is calling the shots in this country?
can you get that physics don't depend on whims of men?
Trav,
Lots of us understand the difference, you seem to have a concrete like grasp on the "fact" that new production techniques or ramped up older technologies can never produce the supply the U.S. needs while utilizing modern electrical production (nukes). That is where much of the problem lies. I think we have some tough times but canyoui not acknowledge it is indeed possible and may become probably with enough resources energy and engineering thrown at the problems.. EROI changes with different technologies ( Thorium reactors) do you possess a crystal ball?
yes, I do have a crystal ball...it's called math and science
amazingly, these inventions do allow you to predict the future.
Most of the "nut cases" in the peak oil movement make the point that the resources to be thrown at the problem should have started being thrown about 20 years ago to be effective in time to avoid major catastrophe. Now with all the people on the planet the timely arrival of peak oil will cause what resources we have left to be spent on other things like wars and "extend and pretend".
Not that it would be easy to replace millenia of concentrated sunlight subjected to millenia of intense geologic processes anyway...
TPOG
What is in shale is not oil, its Kerogen and needs further processing (energy) You don't understand EROEI...
Are you a baiting troll or just a moron? At least with Harry Wanger I can tell.
US Shale oil is not fucking oil, it is kerogen, the precusor to oil. It has the energy density of a baked potato.
If I told you that there were 500 million tonnes of Tater-Tots buried in the ground, would you start digging them up.
Bakken is oil trapped in shales, Green River and the like are shales....
Understand the fucking difference!
Flowrates, motherfucker, it's all about the flowrates...
TPOG
I'm gonna try real hard here.
YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND MATHEMATICS.
There are hundreds of years of ANYTHING if there is no production. Fuck quoting how many years of something there is. You can have zillions of years of oil if you fucking kill 6.6 billion ppl and leave 100K alive. Hell yeah, those 100K people can stretch out oil forever.
The US and the WORLD do not have hundreds of years of damn near anything left at present consumption rates, and those rates will rise because population is going UP. This is not an infinite planet. Oil causes wars. Oil forced Japan to bomb Pearl Harbor after FDR cut them off in August of 1941. Four months later they were over Hawaii because that was the only way to have unfettered access to Indonesia's oil fields.
Oil is society's alpha asset. It has been for 80 or so years now and it's going away.
So are you.
Trav and Crash
Yes a-holes i understand the difference between production and reserves. The first speculative accusation here was I "had no clue" so hope i've put the 'scientist farmer' right on that score though his wild speculative accusation suggests he isn't much of a scientist!
Crash you accuse, "The US and the WORLD do not have hundreds of years of damn near anything left at present consumption rates"
Just to fill in the void between your ears World oil consumption is 30 Billion barrels of oil per annum. There are as comparison 3.5 Trillion barrels of easily extractable oil that soak the clay in the Orinoco basin in Venezuela, and the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta, Canada. Yes, 1 Trillion barrels of oil equals over 100 years of global oil consumption for mans entire use.
Oh yes and I "do not understand maths" either right???
How many false accusation (fuk ups) can you trolls make in one post?
EROEI.
So your solution is to get the world's dirtiest oil in the Athabasca tar sands, polluting god knows how much groundwater, or to go militarily into Venezuela (which is what you'd have to do before Chavez comes to the rescue of the United States) and strip-mine the Orinoco basin? Brilliant!
You could starve that pipsqeak out in 6 months tops..
Your FIRST SENTENCE is a lie, moron!
You CANNOT divide RESERVES by CONSUMPTION and get lifespan!
3TBBl does NOT EQUATE to 30BBbl of production per year for 100 years simply by virtue of the fact that 3T = 30B * 100.
Now, as I am wont to say, STFU already.
In the Guardian article on this latest "leak", the current Saudi oil ministry acknowledges that Saudi Reserves are 51% recoverable. This is common. The VZ oil is likely less recoverable.
And don't forgst the little issue of desired increased global living standards and the "perma-growth" assumptions underlying economic expansion and the debt-based, fiat, created with interest due, Ponzi monetary system.
What Mad Max said. A VERY optimistic estimate of US reserves is 135 BBL.(that includes "undiscovered" reserves, LOL) Thats an 18 year supply, at current consumption rates. MAX. We can't begin to pump what we need. Known, proven reserves is 21 BBL. Thats less than a 3 year supply at current consumption rates. Again, we can't pump what we need. Also, reserves are ALWAYS overstated. ALWAYS. Energy independence for US is a fiction...This is simple math
Hulk
Your maths are fictional. Please refer to my above (real) figures to update your data banks
You leave out EROEI and the fact that oil shale is still mostly fiction. Throw some more clean coal on the fire...
look, both of you, do not ever divide reserves by desired consumption.
The US consumes 18Mbpd, ok?
There is no field or reserve or country that can produce at that rate.
It doesn't matter what the effing shale oil bakken URR numbers are; if they cannot PRODUCE at a RATE of 18mbpd, we have a problem.
The moron you responded to ACTUALLY thinks that between Canada and Venezuela, we will have 85Mbpd for 100 yrs. Between just those two countries. Because 3T/30B=100 afterall.
Imagine that, go out to anybody in the oil buiness and say that you BELIEVE that Canada and Venezuela can combine for 85Mbpd production between the two of them. Let's just say we divide it...so Canada will produce 43Mbdp and VEN will do 42Mbpd.
Does this in ANY way sound remotely feasible? It is shit like this that makes me so frustrated. Reserves should almost NEVER be discussed; all that matters is rate of production. As soon as you talk reserves, idiots who know nothing about oil production start trying to divide them by desired consumption in order to claim there is no problem.
Read my post again...
Hulk
The US has 100's of years of reserves, the only matter stopping exploitation are 1). US Govt stranglehold 2). OPEC oil is the cheapest (why dig up your own when someone else has a production cost advantage)
You are out of your mind. Trav is absolutely right.
yup
Trav7
Why on earth do you wish to discount known reserves? You're almost as bad as the US Govt banning exploitation of reserves.
The fact of the matter is Peak Oil is total BS from start to finish. Worldwide oil, gas and coal reserves have year on year increased, countries that have discovered their own hydrocarbons increase every year (Israel has just found gas offshore) and we are awash, swimming, drowning in energy contrary to the lefties usual shrill ignorant cries we're running out.
The ONLY PROBLEM with energy supply is neither the reserves nor the production, but the Govt and corporate monopolists corrupt strangle-hold on the free market (fascism, same as it ever was).
Earth has 1,000 years of known reserves and the only issue with having cheap energy is it doesn't suit either the political agenda nor the large corporate monopolists agenda both of whom want to spread BS we're running out (peak oil) and lies about "energy security". We are secure for energy, we've never had so much worldwide, we're fuking dripping in 100's of years of energy reserves (as i've proved) if the free market is allowed to operate. Period.
I worry that people like this, with 1% facts and 99% misinformation and leaps to conclusions, will serve as an ignorant, violent army for idiots like Palin and Beck who will promise unlimited oil if we just drill everywhere (probably themselves ignorant of the reason it won't work) and lashing out violently at everyone else when it, predictably, does not work. This is the sort of insane, delusional mindset that ends in people killing scientists and engineers who gave accurate information on why something wouldn't work, which was then done anyway at enormous cost and waste of dwindling resources.
BS post of the week award
Appropriately enough, just like the drug trade...
Palm, yes like drugs, like energy, like healthcare, like every industry Govt cannot stop mangling driven by vested interests (monopolists) that want to fuk over a free competitive market. It's exactly what Govt was designed to do which is exactly why we need to rid ourselves of this most corrupt vessel
Wikileaks =psyop - why now?
Far more interesting re S/A is why Bandar suddenly reappeared and neary a questin as to where have you been for 2 years plus?
It's well known, the USA wants him to be the next King.
IEA leaks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7500669...
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/implications-and-fallout-iea-leaks/31343
Between Bussard's wiffleballs and ammonia fuels, I'm less worried than I used to be.
Natural Gas + Bike
Time to listen to Boone Pickens and start converting big rigs and govt vehicles to CNG. That will cut the price of oil in half over night and give everyone a huge tax cut.
Of course the OPEC countries would shit their pants and the political instability could be a concern....but after years of them giving to us in the brown eye, maybe its time to return the favor.
T Boone Pickens: water-privatizing hoodlum.
I love my CNG van, sub $2.50/gas gallon equiv', no foreign oil wars in the tank, the engines last longer because there is no gasoline to wipe the oil from the cylinder walls, carpool lane, and free parking in some places. Pretty good stuff if it's in your area http://www.cngprices.com/
Fracking for it is totally evil to groundwater supplies but at least biogas is coming around - it's already mixing into the CA supply and methane is also available from the decomp' of algae (the fastest growing living organism around). I'm surprised there isn't more hype about it here on ZH. I like a growth industry:
http://biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2010/11/23/military-biofuels-algae-msw...
Of course bicycles rule too (duh).
Peak algea bitchez!!!!
Peak Oil Bitchez!
3 oz of silver will always buy me a barrel of black gold though.
You may be right re: 3 to 1... now estimate how much oil you will use...
US Muni bonds a short?
http://dawnwires.com/investment-news/us-municipal-bonds-a-pretty-short-b...
please mr. president, we demand more warships to the suez canal, NOW!!!!
“I’m constantly annoyed that people are distracted by false conspiracies such as 9/11, when all around we provide evidence of real conspiracies, for war or mass financial fraud.”-julian assange
wiki is not psyops.. everything is true that is published.. but it is control of information. 1. hundreds of tousands of documents released at the same time.
2. no documents on 9/11, therefore accept the warren commission report, i mean the 9/11 committee report.
Clear assessment.
Yeah that Assange quote is the certification of credibility on Weakyleaks right there.
It sure is. And the George Soros and Cass Sunstein connection makes Wiki-Reek that much stronger.
If you can print money out of thin air and have people accept it, then you can print anything.
Scary truth. But if I print an ID with my photo and the name John Holmes will I have a 12" cock? In the end, math always wins.
This Wiki-Leaks scam is one of the biggest intelligence operation/mind-fucks ever. They [CIA, Mossad, George Soros=Rothchild front] release a Wiki-Leak about ‘injustice’ or they announce they’re going to take down the Big Bad Wolf and we get to hear an endless line of the bleary eyed, sobbing into the microphone. We are looked upon as peasants because people fall head over heals for this kind of BS again and again. Did Wiki-Bull bring down Bank of America like they were going too? A lot of people broadcasting on this board mistakenly believe in the concocted Peak Oil Manure (POM). They should go back and look at what these Big Oil lying clowns pulled off in the Oil Embargo of 1973 and they’ll get the idea. Big oil is controlled by gangsters, The Syndicate. It’s artificial scarcity. We are being lied to. Lindsey Williams wrote The Oil Non-Crises over 20 years ago. In that book he stated that he was shown the technical data by (IIRC) Ken Fromm at the time Chief Of Operations for ARCO. Fromm told Williams that Gull Island Alaska alone had more reserves than all of Saudi Arabia. The wells had been drilled and according to Fromm the “government” immediately ordered them capped and everyone was to shut their mouths. That is how it really is. This latest release should be titled Peak Bullshit.
Guys, I'm adjusting my tin-foil hat but I can't quite seem to tune in to your frequency...
TPOG
That’s likely because you’re posting from inside the matrix. Voice your specific objection and I’ll try to accommodate you.
WikiLeaks is an Israeli espionage operation. Assange is Mossad.
But just as importantly he’s entertainment and a diversion. Just image banging two foundation funded jr. spooks at a time then getting busted a year later for not wearing a condom. This is a rough game. Sure won’t forget all the fingernail biting when our hero Julian was facing the Pincers of Hell for a little Wiki action… or should I say a little Wiki Wiki action.
It's funny how you can be so right about Julian and so wrong about Peak Oil. People do use up stuff and it's never seen again. When was the last time you saw a passenger pigeon?
I sympathize with your objection but I’ve been around the block many times Bringing It. I know I’m going to get junked for talking down to the Peak Oil believers but a scam is a scam and the energy scam is about the biggest in history. It is a primary vehicle for shaping and controlling populations. In the Western nations we are pumped full of lies from cradle to grave. There is a News Blackout which has been in force our entire lives. What is news blackout? You aren’t going to know unless you go to alternate sources and/or have direct personal experience. And if you don’t you will remain in the Matrix.
During the 1973 ‘Arab Oil Embargo’ and its aftermath the general public could actually see parts of the scam as they played out. [The truth clampdown is much tighter now.] Once the ‘Embargo’ was announced gasoline prices shot up within four days where I was, although the affected supply would not reach the West Coast for six weeks. In the San Francisco area local news reported from the refineries that oil was in short supply but also flew their news helicopters twenty miles outside the S.F. Bay to the Faralon Islands where oil tankers were literally ‘Parked’ sitting low in the water. The news people actually said, “The ships are low in the water because they are full of oil!” It was all a scam by Big Oil.
Through their administrative apparatus including using the brute force of the United States military which has become nothing more than a NWO Clone Army the Ruling Oligarchy controls and manipulates much of the oil supply. Small suppliers are bought out and shut down. Refining bottlenecks have been purposefully created to reduce supply. If you were paying attention in the final days of the Bush administration vast tracts of prospective oil fields in northern Alaska were snapped up for just about nothing (pretty much stolen) by Big Oil and remain out of production. Artificial scarcity is the game. People are not being allowed to use clean, cheap energy which competes with the Cartel.
While we may ‘experience’ ‘Peak Oil’ it will be a contrivance based upon deceit.
“I’m constantly annoyed that people are distracted by false conspiracies such as 9/11, when all around we provide evidence of real conspiracies, for war or mass financial fraud.”-julian assange
Assange is quite right about that.
When did Lindsey Graham start working for wikileaks?
OK, first post.
First, Dieoff.org (FKA .com) a great little site, old as shale and the birthplace as much as I can tell of TRUTH online, no surprise indeed if the cable is authentic.
Second, some W. come lately may very well lead a country some day and bring democracy to the US should we actually PROVE the 100 years of coal/Oil/NG reserves our government is keeping off line…
The late great Matt Simmons put a book out on the subject some time ago - twilight in the desert. Most of us who study the oil markets are hugely skeptical of saudi production hitting what they say it can... we are already in the peak plateau period. expect a lot of oscillations in pricing and buy on dips.
Simmons proved that peak oil was a complete scam.
After he shrieked about "gas shortages" and "rationing" back in 2007, and now 3 years later, gasoline prices in L.A. are only $3.25/gal. after peaking at $4.75 on July 4, 2007.
And what happened to that big, black, glob in the GOM that was supposed to swallow us all?
And why is natural gas STILL trading at world record lows when adjusted for inflation?
And why is there still plenty of oil after China auto sales have gone through the roof and the resurgence in consumer bubble spending on new autos is now running at fever pitch?
Robo -- Nat Gas trades at lows because of a new technique called horizontal drilling and fracking. It is proably the most underrated invention of the century. We are the "saudi arabia" of nat gas and this technique has opened up huge reserves we never thought we could access. and we are phucking lucky because of it. Link: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=shale-gas-and-hydraulic...
As for why we dont have $15/gallon gas -- this CARTOON sums it up. Its a goddam hysterical one and its DEADLY ACCURATE. Statistically proven, massive spikes in Oil prices correlate to recessions... expect a lot of volatility given we are at peak "plateau"... ultimately it is going way up with serious bumps along the way.
http://sorrycomics.blogspot.com/2009/10/hubberts-peak.html
the most articulate guy on this is here: WORTH EVERY NANOSECOND...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYuLjGQQ-jg
Good links.
My assumption since $147 oil and the subsequent crash is that, like the cartoon suggests, we are going to cycle down in a permarecession, with occasional demand collapses leading to oil price collapses which lead to illusions of growth and new demand leading to oil prices rising back into unsustainable territory leading to a new cycle.
The thing to remember is that oil = energy = productivity. As the cost goes up, productivity goes down. An optimist would suggest that our many technological breakthroughs will increase human productivity enough to offset the continuing decrease in oil productivity, and I certainly hope that's true, but it's like running on a inclined treadmill, one stumble and you're on your ass.
The cartoon is great. It precisely matches the descriptions of our descent by John Michael Greer and Kunstler. While there's a lot of noise in the data, it seems that we are currently living in the second or possibly third cycle of that descent.
Try not to project your misunderstanding of peak oil on others. With most major economies on the planet melting down a couple years ago, it certainly has delayed the inevitable. The core issue remains, however. We are rapidly approaching the point where A) we hit peak production and B) it will take more oil/energy to extract than what we get as yield. Economic strife notwithstanding, there has essentially been zero planning for mitigating the impending imbalance. But hey, I know you live on a 5-10 minute technical chart, so this is WWWWAYYYY beyond your horizon. So don't worry about it, and go back to trading support levels of AAPL.
Natural gas reserves are so high because we're too stupid to use it.
Because people are dumb. Like in housing, the paradigm shift will be fast.
Exponential increase in the number of oil wells, over the past ten years, to keep production flat. Fall off is going to be a bitch. (injected wells have catastrophic fall off rates) You are as wrong on peak oil as you have been on gold and silver...
at least he's consistent. The exponential increase worries me the most. Like our debt, we are borrowing massively from the future and everything will come crashing down. Good to see you packing punch on this thread Hulk
Matt Simmons seemed to lose his sharp mind near the end of his life and that GoM theory of his was a sign of that. That does not invalidate his earlier work which was very well researched and had supporting material.
As far as why oil prices went down for a while, it is called "demand destruction".
The more troubling question for someone like you: if you look at the history of oil prices, why after such an incredible drop in price is the price almost all the way back up after just three years? Remember that we are not working in the timescales of a day trader here.
TPOG
Exactly. The price of oil is reflecting the drop in value of the FRN. Inflation adjust; I always say. The FRN has lost 97% of 'peak value' since creation. If the world does hit 'peak oil'; well, I guess we will have to start using all that oil the 'environmentalists' and 'greenies' put off limits inside the USA since 1973. Think of Cali: oil seeping out of the ground, but they don't drill for more. Hmmmm. Insane or saving for later?
Agreed, it may seem counter-intuitive from a price standpoint, but Saudi Arabia has an incentive to overstate its supply to preserve various strategic alliances and hold onto its international diplomatic pull. Once they are seen as a substantially declining source of oil it will decrease their prestige, and image is everything in the ME.
Agreed Dr. God Bless Matt Simmons.
His book was years ahead of its time but prescient as to what was about to happen. Shockingly it appears the government has lied to us again.
Stunning isn't it?
If they lied about a lunar landing, what did you expect?
MAY DAY MAY DAY
What is your emergency, over.
The same dude spoke out in 2004: http://peakoil.com/production/ex-saudi-oil-exec-criticizes-us-govt-oil-s....
So Wikileaks is releasing propaganda, intentionally or not. I happen to agree with the sentiment of this particular piece of propaganda, but I still suspect something fishy in its release. Much to suspect about the Wikileaks' choices and timing.
I happen to agree with the sentiment of this particular piece of propaganda, but I still suspect something fishy in its release.
Your agreement with Assange, half-hearted though it may be, is of itself rather fishy. Much to suspect about your choice and timing.
O yo better build more of those wind mills off Nantucket
Trav7777 here, telling 3-4 people they are fucking idiots and the real peak oil occurred in 1913 with the Federal Reserve Act. Then this thread is done.
Sounds like something Matt Simmons would "report" LOL The fucking globe is swimming in oil, bulging inventories. Besides, if the global economy collapses, you'll see oil prices plummet to $25/barrel, just like they did in 2008
Poor Simmons destroyed all of his credibility before he passed on. With that ridiculous story about BP going bankrupt and the Gulf of Mexico turning into a tar pit.
Surely, that guy lost his marbles near the end.
The BP oil spill is turning the Gulf into a Tar Pit.
http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/
Anyone who thinks dropping poisonous chemicals into a volcano of oil will not have consequences is either fucking delusional, or complicit in a crime that demands a public execution.
agree with that. he did get nutty. I think he was drinking moonshine in maine and getting wacky.
So nutty he needed to be heart-attacked.
The global economy is in terrible shape by any reasonable measure.
Oil prices are at $85-100/barrel depending on the day and whether you're looking at WTI or Brent. How does this correlate with the world "swimming in oil"? Is that some new ad campaign for BP?
I think you should short it.
I get my news from ZioLeaks:
http://mycatbirdseat.com/2011/02/jim-dean-exclusive-israeli-espionage-in...
Here's another link:
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2011/02/08/jim-w-dean-exclusive-israeli-esp...
Here's another link:
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2011/02/08/jim-w-dean-exclusive-israeli-esp...
That link would tie into this one:
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2010/08/24/israeli-control-of-america-a-vet...
Peak oil, dont know the answer to that one , but while in Bahrain 1991 at one of the local establishments met about a dozen roughnecks laughing so hard I had to join the party, come to find out these guys were on a salt water pump crew working the saudi wells--the joke was that in five years the whole country would fall off into the gulf from pumping so much water into the wells-never had such a good time.
I think they were pumping all that salt water to keep the well pressure up for output. From what I hear, the water cut is rising and that's also a sign of impending doom. Anybody else hear similar?
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2330
The water cut is high and that's very bad. (I believe much of Texas has a higher water cut though). However they are coping with it well and will probably be able to keep pumping decent volumes for some time. The problem is that they aren't likely to maintain, much less increase, current volumes.
There's a lot of detail on this in Simmons' "Twilight in the Desert" and various other sources.
Some of the strippers have 98% water cuts....
Translation: deep groundwater with some oily residue that can be separated out.
"Can't wait until the Marines seize those Saudi oilfields..."
[This thought bubble brought to you by Dick Cheney, September 10, 2001]
Are we necessarily wise to take this at face value?
Would explain why OPEC is not adjusting outputs to meet the previously stated 'comfort zone' of $70-80 per b. price target. If Saudi is that low...they may become substantially less influential...this would bode poorly for western countries, and we should expect a more stable zone of $90-105 barring some de-stabilizing factor.
That would bode very poorly for the Saudis first. The Saudis traded their protection from the West against playing the swing producer part. If their capacity to perform that part is diminished, it will bode very poorly for them first. Especially if Iraq is able to play a similar swing producer part.
The Saudis are on the front line.
Are we necessarily wise to take this at face value?
If so, Matt Simmons is vindicated, as I imagine he will be about the BP oil disaster in The GOM.
The "Peak oil" meme was created to hide the real reason for rising oil prices: printing money/inflation. MASSIVE oil discoveries have been made over the last 40 years everywhere from off the coast of Argentina (the real reason for the Falkland invasion), Alaska, mainland US and the gulf. These discoveries were then capped and held in reserve to keep prices under control.
We now all know that Wiki-leaks is a CIA/MOSAD operation so it fits perfectly that the Peak Oil lie would be spread by the Wiki-leaks lie.
Just google Mat Simmons - the father of Peak Oil. He wrote Twilight in the Desert. If Peak Oil was such a hidden secret how is it that Mat was a presidential advisor for several presidents including Bush/Cheney. Mat's piping up on MSM that the Gulf Oil leak was not contained yet was not appreciated but that's another story.
Oil is generated deep in the earth's crust in an abiotic process that has nothing to do with dinasour bones. (What an embarrassing explanation.) There are entire fucking moons with liquid hydrocarbon oceans. I'm sure there were shitloads of dinosaurs that died there too.
http://caps.fool.com/blogs/econ101-peak-oil-theory-matt/50887
http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm
Malthus was a tool. Abundance not scarcity. I'm not saying that bacteria won't grow to the limits of a Petri dish but there are ways to have a larger redwood forest year after year concurrent with increased redwood lumber output. But I digress.
Matt went off the reservation near the end...
I don't know man - the shit is still going down in the gulf. Just because MSM is no longer covering it does not mean it's not happening.
Check it out:
http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/
+1
Same source as I wrote above.
Yeah - sorry - glad to see someone else is following along with what's happening to all those people. Unfreakin' believeable.
Peak Oil dogma thrives on the control and distribution of industry information and the oil itself. This control of information is essential for these environmental atrocities to thrive in the face of honest enquiry. Ironically, this oil leak appears to be still out of control as its continued flow provides confirmation of abiotic sourcing, which if true is doubly toxic as it is also possibly radioactive.
Distrust your corporatist bankster 'government' on everything but believe Peak Oil because it comes from corporatist banksters who are not the 'government' ? Right. Not enough data to confirm. Methinks they doth protest too much....
While there is certainly such a thing as "abiotic" oil (actually oil produced by microbes deep in the Earth's crust--I have posted the published papers proving this previously, but the rate is TOTALLY UNKNOWN, and it could take millions or billions of years to replenish our reserves, IF that oil so produced even goes into those reservoirs), the continued seepage of oil from the BP spill is certainly not evidence of it. It is only evidence of a breached oilfield under the Gulf that hasn't reached neutral pressure yet.
Look at the depth of the Deepwater Horizon and its proximity to the Eugene Block 330.
If BP tapped into a direct abiotic source according to the proposed science of that school it is not unfair to make the analogy that shallow structure drilling is to mosquito bite as the Deepwater Horizon was to an internal hemorrhage. Thus one would argue, the Gulf submarine strata is bruised, coagulating and still bleeding from the pores.
P.S. If its produced from microbes I believe it qualifies a biotic or biogenic. Abiotic science posits petroleum as the product of chemical construction from wholly inorganic chemicals and compounds under immense heat and pressure in proximity to the upper mantle.
The shallower the crust, the closer you are to the mantle. Not surprisingly the earth's crust is thinnest in the ME, particularly in Saudi Arabia where fortuitously the presence of ancient carbonate reef structures in the geologic profile provide superb porosity and permeability as reservoirs.
But again this is speculative and inferred as is much of the observation of physical earth science at depth. Only the oil industry and ME dictators are slightly more transparent.
If they ever audit the FED they should also audit the Gulf Slope and other reserves controlled by a handful of powerful companies owned by powerful people.
Oil is money and oil is food. That's a lot of global control in very few hands.
P.P.S. I didn't junk you.
This is the kind of news that is going to be ignored by the main stream press for as long as possible. And denied as foolish babble when brought up.
It is foolish babble. 'Peak Oil' babble is for consumption by the geologically ignorant folk. The earth is awash in oil.
'Peak Oil' theorists should research the 'Peak Refinery' fact.
P.S. Wikileaks is tainted goods.
You have obviously passed peak brain cells...
The earth is awash in oil.
Umm, the GOM is awash in oil, but I don't know about the world.
Why do we have rigs, two hundred miles off the coast, drilling wells a mile beneath the water surface, then drilling another five miles down for oil, if there's so much easily accessible oil??
It doesn't matter how much oil is in the earth, if we can't get to it cheaply.
NIMBY.
Just ask around.
There is a minimum of 500 billiion barrels of light sweet crude in just the Bakken Oil Field (Montana). ARCO has proven that the oil can be extracted at $16/barrel, at American labour rates. Is that cheap enough for you? There are over 1 trillion barrels in Alaska. Gull Island alone has as much as the Prudhoe oil field. That's just in the U.S. Don't forget Canada's trillions of barrels and Russia's vast, vast untapped resources.
My friend, this is just the tip of the iceberg. The Russians have been successfully drilling deep oil wells (>40,000 ft depth) for decades. They know how much oil the Earth produces, and they have successfully tapped wells that were long thought dry.
We will never run out of hydrocarbon fuels on this planet, but you will be lied to like sheep, so that you will gladly pay $10/gallon while your children beg you for some food.
So raise a glass of light sweet crude and drink to your willful ignorance.
Hey, if you are going to "contribute" stuff that has already been dissected and demonstrated to be irrelevant and inconsequential, why don't you try it in a more recent thread.... Better yet, stand in the front the mirror and recite this nonsense to yourself if you really need to ingratiate yourself.
Thanks for your contribution genius.
Why don't you read the thread...
BTW, I was evaluating plays in the Bakken in '06. Made a lot of money on some of them.
You have no idea how far you are in over your head.
So why don't you say something useful instead of lauding your 'plays' you giant of industry.
amazing "facts" you've presented
$12.88 spread on crude and Brent right now, thats fuckin retarded.
www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com
You guys do your conspiracy stuff.
In the end, the core reality is this.
Russia pumps 10.1 mbpd with oil about $90/barrel.
Saudi Arabia pumps 8.5 mbpd and claims they can't find customers for any more, so they won't pump anymore.
But . . . how is it Russia found customers for that extra 1.6 mbpd that the Saudis could not? And it's relatively recent. Russia has become the number one producer by passing the Saudis only in the past couple of years.
Why did the Saudis allow that? It's 1.6 million bpd X $90 = $144 million per day = $5.25 billion per year. They are essentially GIVING that money to Russia, if they could truly pump more. Make sense to you?
Of course not. It makes sense if they *can't* pump more. But it makes no sense when they say "we can't find customers for any more than we presently pump".
I'm not clear. Did Russia surpass Saudi Arabia because the Saudis reduced production or because Russia out-produced them?
If Russia's production increased over Saudi Arabia, how did this happen? Was more oil discovered? Did they drill more wells and drill deeper as per the Russian abiotic school of petroleum?
http://oilgeopolitics.net/Geopolitics___Eurasia/Peak_Oil___Russia/peak_o...
Or does Russia need the cash (Euros) more than Saudi Arabia needs more worthless FRNs or a lower value in those same FRNs that increased production would bring....?
I think these are things to consider to be properly skeptical about the PO scenario.
Of any country, Russia is doing the most gaming with their supply. The OPEC states are all going as hard as they can.
Uhhh, the Russians were willing to settle for a lower price? The cost associated with increasing the production was not economical at that oil price?
Oil filling up tankers speaks to people really not being able to find real END customers, though there may be plenty of speculators in the field. But they roll so many contracts that they have taken up all storage capacity, and have resorted to renting expensive oil tankers to use as storage. This is like a grain producer storing grain in 18 wheelers with cab attached. That is how uneconomical that is (well, not quite THAT bad, but close).
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
Al Gore probably wrote this bullshit, propped this Saudi chicken little up, all with ObaMao's approval, so they could be ringers on the Cap&Trade & Greenie-Weenie horse shit that will be the multi-trillion dollar scam of the century, making everyone in on the ground floor of the Green Ween Scene filthy rich.
I bet Al Gore, aka Manbearpig, even has an executive position set up for Obama once he leaves office.
Follow the money.
Wikileaks is a sick joke upon the Kool-Aid gulpers.
Wikileaks is a sick joke upon the Kool-Aid gulpers.
Right. But you and Sarah Palin and Joe Lieberman will set us straight. Thank goodness!