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Difference Between AAII Bullish And Bearish Sentiment Highest Since 2004
Pure euphoria has officially set in. According to the December 23 AAII sentiment survey, the bullish mood soared from 50.23% to 63.28%, the highest reading since November 18, 2004. Bearish sentiment plunges from 27.15% to 16.41%, the lowest since November 24, 2005. The difference between bullish and bearish sentiment is 46.87%: the highest since April 15, 2004. There is no point in commenting on these results. There is a point in highlighting, though, that retail continues to refuse to be suckered in and becoming the hot potato buyer of last resort: 33 consecutive weeks of outflows from mutual funds indicates that the social split between bankers and everyone else, is now translating into the stock market, as only professionals, and robots, "trade" now.
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ah, well the bankers live in another galaxy now. the peasantry is dealing with the 3.20 per gallon gas prices -- which the bankers don't even notice.......and the food prices are skyrocketing as well.......
on peasant planet, things are so seriously not going well, i suspect most have turned off all financial tv.......joe kernan is talking to himself now. maybe you can get him to buy a few shares.
This is your signal to SELL TO THEM.
It sure does seem like every single bear on this board has thrown in the towel. If you are waiting for the S&P to top and sound a bell, then you are confused about what you should be doing just now...as a bear.
There are many leadership stocks that have been deteriorating quite quickly over the last few weeks...despite the completely bogus and perpetually rising Roach Motel [SPY]...the later being something that simply cannot be maintained, as well.
Come January, these stocks will be called "Last year's good ideas."
Buck up, bears!
it doesnt matter Unwashed!
Not one fucking bit. These fucks dont drive cars or pay for food. They take the mass transit and have everything bought for them....including the head heb(Ben B.)
they have no fucking clue...
Keep the faith my fellow bear! When we see news like this on a regular basis, watch out-
>>"On the FOX 26 Facebook fan page, one woman said a line formed at Willowbrook Mall as early as Wednesday afternoon for the shoes."<<
Wow!
Who are the polled? What were the polled on at the time of polling?
I'm guessing one long hopium hit and a little bit of loose change?
Unbelievable.
This might be the top signal the bears have been salivating about.
Ridiculous.
DOW 36,000!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
'The highest since 2004'. The market did not crash in 2004, the top came 4 years later.
True AI89, but we are clearly in a time-contracted world, ne?
Things are moving much faster now, wouldn't you say? Everything is more tippy. 04, we were just getting warmed up to the housing frenzy.
ow, treading air, everywhere.
;-)
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/06/18/of-tipping-points-and-shape-s...
Kurzweil's singularity is near.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil#The_Singularity_is_Near
An interesting outtake from the book is that as change accelerates, the more mature a mind is, the less it can handle it (i.e. the old dog, new trick axiom). Only young minds can survive the changes as they still have the ability to adapt to their new reality.
So, it looks like Idiocracy for the surviving masses after all. Kurzweil meanwhile, takes hundreds of vitamins per day in order to live long enough to become a hybridized immortal. Now there's some class distinction.
Curse-while... Hmmmmm.... I'll take a conscious and inevitable death of his mechanistic version of immortality.
How about you NA?
ORI
Meh, sooner or later you get hit by lightning, or a meteorite...
Interesting observation...
The biggest divergence I see between 2004 and now is stock option and insider activity.
There was a huge base of insider buying and options issuance in the months leading into 2004, due to widespread confidence in the executive circles that there would be a self-sustaining recovery. The the primary source of the recovery came from the improving underlying fundamentals from the private sector.
In the months leading to what we see today, we see exactly the opposite. Everyone knows that the Fed/government is providing massive support to keep asset prices bouyant. But there's just not a good amount of confidence from executives that the private sector can make it a self-sustaining recovery.
Banana Ben is betting that a rising stock market will lift private market fundamentals. Insiders are betting that fundamentals eventually determine stock prices, and are divesting (or are raising capital) into higher price levels.
In any case, a stock market top may well come 4 years from now.
Or it might not.
It depends on whether you believe in the Fed's view of the world... or executives' underlying lack of confidence, as they continue to divest.
>Wow! Who are the polled? What were the polled on at the time of polling?
We are the poled. We were on our knees squealing like a pig.
Who gets polled when robots and funds trade
Taxpayers, but there's only one 'l' in 'poled'.
That's Iron-ic and pole-ish humor Snow.
Nice!
ORI
"retail continues to refuse to be suckered in and becoming the hot potato buyer of last resort"
Excellent, let them recycle their own toxic shit.
LMAO
How would you respond to this?
Stocks do not behave the same way inflated currencies behave, very different dynamics. The stocks traded on the exchanges have no real relationship to actual company valuation. That being said, I believe that a share in a company will always have value despite what currency is doing as long as the company remains solvent. It is very dangerous to put all your eggs in one basket. I believe that the 401k is still a good deal if you invest in some industries that will never go away such as oil and gas.
My investments are equally spread between, gold, real estate, cash, my company, and mutual funds.
The 401k is protected from current taxation and the company gives you a 25% matching contribution. Think about diversifying a little.
This above paragraph was sent in response to my email about how PE ratios indicate an overpriced stock market, pervasive HFT, accounting fraud, POMO, as well as Fed liquidity injections and asset purchases. I also showed a shart of the 33 weeks of equity retail outflow and insider selling levels that have never been seen in my lifetime. I refuse to play the paper game any more and many people I respect have been warning me to get back into the game.
Any thoughts? Oh yeah, merry f’in xmas.
That share will have a value, but not necessarily good value (relative to other investments) and even staples get dragged through the mud when the rest of the market tanks (calls get covered by any means necessary) so the 401k is dubious beyond the minor tax benefit. And stocks must, at least somewhat, behave in response to the currencies in which they are denominated.
Are you doing 25% match with an ESOP?! I've been looking into rolling some over into a start-up if/when the dayjob goes the way of the dodo and am curious if that's what you meant as I wasn't aware the kind of sheltering is a possibility.
Thanks for the insight. We are a C Corp, so ESOP doesn't apply here.
I meant S Corp.
Think "mean reversion" market is near the top of the cycle. It will go back down & historically dramatically at first.
2 the Dr. RH
I'm not a US citizen and I do not have in-dept knowledge of your 401k program and its' opportunities where taxation is concerned.
The whole game is about NOT "becoming the hot potato buyer of last resort".
For each passing day the potato is gaining steam, somebody will eventually drop it. In the process GS and their WS+Gov't cronies are going to make a shitload of money while the rest is going to get wiped out.
What's the use of investing in companies producing all kinds of crap which by far and large are starting to exceed affordability. There never seems to be a shortage of sellers, it's the amount of buyers which are drying out at an alarming pace. In fact, there might only be 1 left . . . . our beloved chairman and the Fed's henchmen.
And a merry fooking x-mas 2 u 2
LMAO
I have to agree with you. With everything I have been reading in the last 4 years and the changes that have taken place for accounting practices, I believe that my position of staying 100% out of the paper market is going to be my benefit for now. The ability of these firms to front run our own buys and sells is enough of a reason for me to stay away until we see some sort of true reality being set for in stock prices.
Besides, even the best traders in the industry (those not affiliated with the primary dealers) have been getting hosed for years now. These are "experts" that spend their entire work day on these subjects, which is obviously something one can't do if they hold a job outside of this arena.
I will stick with gold, silver, cash, and continue on my path out of debt and into more self sufficiency. I see no point in sharing my labor on a market that is rigged. I ain't no day trader.
I am more concerned about the return OF my money than the return ON my money. --Mark Twain
I noticed With Great Happiness that "the little guy" finally GOT IT!!!
I only hope it stays that way!
Greed AND Fear are 2 very powerful Forces!
It doesn't mean anything. The bull-bear graph always looks like an exaggerated SP500 graph, but there's never a way of knowing if it's leading, lagging, or concurrent.
Dont forget trolls, they say they do a lot of bullish trading too, and have lots of charts that are 'up'.
Scroll says " Alabama stops paying pensions" and the talking head can't answer questions while reading off paper why muni's hold value because the interest payment is at the "top of the list". Interesting day on CNBS.
Thick clouds of Hopium smoke roll across the fruited plain, originating from CNBS studios.
US indexes only follow foreign markets when they were up of course. This morning Asia and others were way down...not US indexes though, as Hopium is sucked out of the hookah far another great day of hopium fest in USSA! Party on, mofos... Hello, my name Peggy.
Bullish sentiment in gold must be at world record highs.
Higher than ever.
No wonder gold is getting crushed.
Maybe a signal that stocks are ready to sell off.
There is a Santa Claus!
I trust gold in my hand over banksters and thieves
Yep I dont care how much they mash down PM's. I'll trust silver and gold coins in my hand over these bankster thieves any day. Go mash down gold another $100! I'll just buy more!
These days, the ONLY thing you can trust financially is Gold & Silver, in your hands. Some dry powder is always good, and 2 extra clips for each gun, fully loaded.
Crushed a whole $10! Now get out there and sell!
Do you think it is a good time to buy the VIX, this ponzi will end sooner than later.
I never understood why anyone would buy a technical indicator chart. And one that seems to be one of the most unreliable indicators around. But it seems like the only thing to do today as it cant really go much lower.
Mini flash crash in IRE at open?
Government now owns 99% of the stock.
LOL....
GOOD! And they can KEEP em as world record bagholders!
Being forced to be bullish by a Fed Printing press is being counted as being bullish. They need a new term. Bullish Sentiment, Bearish Sentiment, and Fed Sentiment.
Bull(shit)ish.
If it's not retail that's bullish then there's no point shorting, who would they be taking the money off.
Retail is selling and HFT churn it up and buy. Contrarian analysis doesn;t exist anymore ;)
Leo.
HarryWanger
I thought Harry was the archetype for the retail momo creepy e-trade bruh-baby, but maybe he's just sell-side and devoid of tact.
Police have been sent to a Houston-area mall after some of the hundreds of shoppers apparently became unruly while they waited outside to buy new Nike Air Jordan shoes, officials said today.
From the Houston Chronicle.
-------------------------------------------------
Following comment is for HarryW
A sure sign of improvement in the economy.
Correct, If they do this for discount shoes...wait until the government runs out of goodies for the unemployed, Oh yeah, they will stoically suffer in silence.
http://www.myfoxhouston.com/dpp/news/weird/101223-shopping-crowd-chaos
Playing games with peoples heads. Making things that aren't rare, rare to pretend a different supply demand dynamic. Same thing Walt Disney does with their movies. Won't print a DVD for 40 years then come out with super expensive "Special Release".
No kidding, same with a spike in commodity prices.
does Benny boy now increase the interest rates to receive higher interest income on his treasury securites
You mean does he now raise taxes?
I have given up.
I've been short since July and then the market melted up.
The only reliable indicator it seems is me.
If I short, go long.
I listened to much to Machugh and Prechter who said we were in wave C down for nearly a year, now its still wave B up.
Ithought this rally was fake but it does tie in with the baltic dry index rising
and now its dropping again.
I'm sure Wave C will see its day soon
With govt and private banksters now owning 99% of all stocks, the NEXT wave down youll see is when they pull their next 'terrorist attack' and seize everyones 401K's, pensions, bank accounts.
Alabama town Prichard "our future"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40791768
No ones yet talked about Build America Bonds fail yet...thats 3 states right there that are totaly bankrupt NOW as those bonds were used to pay out unemployment, CA is one of em, NJ another.
This time is different.
They aren't waiting for retail to buy back rather corporations to do "stock buy backs" since the cash can no longer be used for growth and employment.
So in essence, the new bag holder will be corporations buying back at inflated levels...bankers still win.
Fundamental scientific research principle at
work. Once you come to finally "believe"
(in whatever), it fails. Watch what happens
going forward now that we believe.
And of course we now all believe....pigmen
skeptics and Harry Wangers alike, so
failure is imminent.
I see the shit the same way, theyve already gotten everyone in theyll ever get, so now what? Reverse thrusters.
If there are very few left in the 'market' then this is ideal conditions for them to just buy and sell to each other at an every increasing price, with no-one in the way to interfere with the price rigging
This certainly seems reasonable.
If you discount what's happening in Europe, or unemployment, Munis, Federal deficits, housing, commercial RE, BDI, rising commodity prices (and some predictions of food shortages)... Yeah, life is looking up.
We all believe Ben has somehow
immunized us against those things.
So now Ben will proceed to fail.
This is the way it always works.
I believe when it does hit it will do so like a ton of bricks. Think NFL linebacker on a HS wide receiver.
Has to hit like a ton of bricks, we wont see little 20 point down days when the pigmen reverse this behemoth.
I'm just amazed they have managed to keep it up this long
they really do seem to defy mathematics it seems.
I'm actually calling a top when oil hits 100
that will be a 61.8 percent retracement from the lows and it was oil that pricked the housing bubble.
I think 100 this time will do it.
oil will be the one thing that can stop the madman bernank
"oil will be the one thing that can stop the madman bernank."
My feeling as well. Not only the reptiles leading this country; but also the Borg that is China, and the entire long wave of fossil-byproduct crap that has flooded this world the last hundred years.
We live in an extraordinary time. And to those 'expatriates' I wish them a lot of luck. The U.S.A. may well swing to a Jaysus-based theocracy but I can live with that better than what's coming in the P.R.C. or Meso America.
Happy Holidays to all on ZH!
One day we will wake up in the morning and the s&p futures will be down 50 points ... no one will see it coming... the reason will be some obscure event that no one predicted i.e. Long Term Capital...it may be China rolling tanks into Taiwan...who knows..but there will be no out for the poor sap looking to tap into his IRA for retirement...just the way the world works. Cheers and Merry Christmas Zero Hedgers!
50pts, just just a pullback. Buy the fucking dip.
Exactly, one morning the media will be suddenly panicked over some event that no one saw coming of course, and S&P will be opening down -100...sorry pensioners but we really thought this time was different.
PS- Pensioners, we really tried and are sorry but we'll promise to work to prevent too much inflation in dog food. Zeig Heil.
It's the one constant, the next group that tries it is always so much smarter and more sophisticated than the last.
But the inflation animal always gets to big to control.
Amphibious tanks?
"Just buy the f-in dip!"
http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/64127
Can the 33 weeks of outflows simply reflect the boomers selling for retirement cash & shifting the mix of their portfolio from equities to bonds and precious metals ETFs?
Could it be that retail is switching from mutual funds to stocks, thinking they can be smarter without expense ratios? Why have a mutual fund, just buy Apple.
Breaking News: Nic Lenoir says markets will crash.
It's all downhill from here. Watch out below!