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A Different Take
This article is in response to Michael Panzer's post: "The Latest Red Flag - The Market's Rate of Melting Up". Here is a different take.
From the Panzer article, I quote: "Based on data going back 90 years, whenever the 12-month rate of change (ROC) in the Dow Jones Industrials Average has exceeded 40 percent, it has generally signaled trouble ahead."
I would disagree with that statement, and to understand why, let's put together a very simple study and replicate Panzer's observations. Like Panzer, our data set is the Dow Jones Industrial Average going back 90 years. I will also use the 12 month rate of change (ROC) indicator, and my strategy is to "buy" the DJIA when the indicator exceeds the 40 percent level. I will sell my position after holding it for exactly 12 months.
Now the purpose isn't to develop a trading strategy, but to show you what happens to the DJIA after the ROC indicator exceeds the 40% level, and the best way to demonstrate my "different take" is through the use of the maximum adverse excursion (MAE) graph. See figure 1.
Figure 1. MAE Graph
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MAE assesses each trade from the strategy and determines how much a trade had to lose inpercentage terms before being closed out for a winner or loser. You put on a trade and if you are like most traders, the position will move against you. MAE measures how much you have to angst and squirm while you are in that position. Because once you close the position out for a loss or a win, you are done worrying about it. As an example, look at the caret in figure 1 with the blue box around it. This one trade lost 16% (x-axis) before being closed out for a 8% winner (y-axis). We know this was a winning trade because it is a green caret.
So what does the MAE tell us about our strategy of buying the DJIA after the ROC indicator exceeds 40%? We had 12 trades since the 1920's. Two trades had excessive or portfolio ruining draw downs (or MAE's) and these were 1929 and 1987. 7 trades had MAE's less than 6%, and this would be the trades to the left of the blue vertical line. I would consider this a very tolerable draw down especially since 4 of those trades returned over 20% for the 12 month holding period. More importantly, 9 of the 12 trades were winners, and even a moderately excessive MAE of 16% recovered.
I think utilizing the MAE graph and methodology is a much better way to look at the data. Panzer states that on 11 occasions "rapid advances have been followed by notable corrections". This statement doesn't take in to account possible losses or draw downs experienced by the investor. For example, a 10% correction could have occurred after the DJIA had already run up 15% or so. In this instance, the investor would not have suffered a loss of principle despite the correction. Panzer's statement isn't as informative as the MAE graph, which actually shows how much an investor has to angst or squirm because he has lost his principle.
One other graph is worth introducing and this is the maximum favorable excursion graph (MFE). MFE measures how much a trade runs up before being closed out for a loss or a win. See figure 2 for the MFE graph for this strategy, and look at the caret with the blue box. This one trade ran up or had gains of 15% (x-axis) before being closed out for a 9% (y- axis) winner. So this trade gave back 6% before being closed out a winner, and we know this is a winner because of the green caret.
Figure 2. MFE Graph
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So what does the MFE graph tell us about this strategy? 8 out of the 12 trades had MFE's of greater than 14%, so at some time over the next 12 months after exceeding a 40% 12 month gain the DJIA ran up some 14% or more from the entry point 75% of the time.
Now, let's focus in on the caret inside the red box. This is the trade from 1929. As it turns out, this trade actually made 31% before being closed out for a 19% loser after experiencing a 33% draw down or MAE. So let me set the record straight on the 1929 Armageddon trade: 1) the ROC indicator exceeded 40%; 2) the DJIA went on to make 31% over the next 9 months; 3) over the following 3 months, the DJIA lost 38%. So what Panzer has left out is the fact that the 1929 trade had a 30% plus run up that the market eventually gave back.
When considering the MFE and MAE graphs and what really happens after the DJIA makes 40% in a year, I would have to disagree with Panzer's assessment. When the ROC indicator exceeds 40%, it doesn't always signal trouble ahead. Even the 1929 trade actually had a 31% gain before being closed out for an 18% loss. If a trader or investor "gives back" that much, they probably should not be in the market in the first place.
I can easily make the argument that a 40% gain in over a year implies strong momentum that is likely to continue. But I won't make that argument, and instead, I will just state that this appears to be what it is: another data point that doesn't provide too much clarity.
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well some of those data points occurred in the greatest bull markets in history (the 1920's, 1980's and 1990's.) clearly Panzer makes a sound "common sense" analysis which if he were being honest he'd say that was the true source for the data. "You greedy bastards got your 40% but now you have to sell so i'll get my leg down by you doing the responsible thing." Very static view of the way a market functions. This is a very interesting set of data points and says to me at a minimum at least the author isn't trying to "cook the books" to cover a point of view. Needless to say neither does a market.
i agree with your assessment but the real important data would be finding a context that is similar to today's. could you list the dates of the 12 entry points?
i would like to look at them in the context of the stock market and economy at that time.
the data point which seems to fit our context closest is the 1938 data point where the ROC hit 30% or thereabouts. this was after the 1937 crash so it fits our post-crash scenario, and also fits our two crashes in 8 years scenario (1929 & 1937, 2000 & 2008). our post crash has been longer duration-wise and higher percentage-wise, but that is understandable due to the obscene amount of intervention so far.
http://www.seniorcenterinc.org/programs/investorsforum/1929-32.gif
this suggests that our next 3 years will be tumultuous, with large drops and large rallies. eventually finding our way back down to the S&P low at 666 or potentially below it.
Really cool. More please.
Very nice breakdown. This shows the various factors involved in actual trading rather than just a standard chart or simple statement. The charts would be better if you could enlarge them.
Very interesting bed time story... Thanks for the efforts & work you put into this!
The market will continue to rise ad infinitum because...simply and only because. Just that. To search for logic or reason in this market is a fools errand. I've made that mistake, trying to trade on facts, news, logic, fundamentals or technicals...it's proven to be a costly and painful venture. I would have been better off going all in on the most useless and bloated pigs on the market and just taking a vacation and coming back to extract my fortune. Is that logical? Of course not! But is it true or not?
I'm on the sidelines now as far as the equity market goes. It's impossible to short without getting killed and I can't bring myself to going long given the reality of the economy. Now I'm just dabbling in the Forex market at night so that I'm too tired to look at the market during the day because every time I look...I just want to puke.
Alien, you are very right with the comment "I would have been better off going all in on the most useless and bloated pigs on the market and just taking a vacation..."
Think about what TPTB and Ben want: EXACTLY THIS. Go and take your massive McMansion mortgage, buy as much shit as you want, borrow as much as you possibly can stuff your fat fuckin ass with......and we'll make it ALL OK!!
This, my friend, is why the USA is toast. This is what is encouraged, to be a saver is to sin against those who claim to be God. Fuck them, they ain't gettin my cash.
This. What good are savings when its worthless anyway?
+100, my sentiments exactly.
So, how many time has the 40%/12mo. resulted in a crash? And how many times not? The writer did not convince me, nor did I see a refutation of Panzer. He just left me lost in a bunch of technospeak.
Noah:
There were 12 trades or signals from the strategy; 7 had a draw down less than 6%; 3 had a moderate draw down that recovered; Panzer mentions the two crashes but in reality the 1929 crash ran up 31% before crashing...so it's all perspective
got it now?
Good stuff, I don't get into technicals in detail like you guys, but I know one thing, just because the ROC is +40%, doesn't mean this puppy can't go much higher.