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Different Week, Same Joke
From Nic Lenoir
Different Week, Same Joke
The fed is probably the most morally "flexible" central bank ever, I will leave it there and that is about the most polite statement one can make. After serving us last winter concerns about asset bubble creation, dangers of building up expectations when it comes to rates policy, and the need to keep the market on its toes, we have now entered a phase when the Fed instead alley-oops every batch of bond purchases to the market in advance to make sure it doesn't dip while they reload. It's plain pathetic.
About as pathetic is the market's reaction to today's Fed's minutes. Recent Fed speakers have done one thing and one thing only: pave the way towards QE 2.0. Before the last FOMC equity markets rallied based on hopes that QE 2.0 would surprise early. After the meeting they rallied further based on the fact QE 2.0 was now guarantied in November (which was not in the statement verbatim, not even close). Today the market rallied after the minutes because we learned that the Fed talked about QE 2.0 at the last meeting. I suppose the large number of shorts on NYSE is the reason why the machine keeps going, because other than that there is flat out no reason despite what can be said on CNBC. The towel is not thrown yet, the sell zone was 1,155/1,164, and until we get a daily close above 1,174 it is worth hanging around here especially given the fact that RSI hourly is diverging massively, we touched the resistance of the hourly channel on the highs today and EURUSD has broken the downtrend channel. That being said it is starting to look like the nightmare I warned about the last couple weeks if the resistance is not observed, meaning a remake of march/april 2010 when market levitates in ever decreasing volatility until we flat out crash.
An interesting way to play this market if you are skeptical about QE 2.0's success or the fact it is overly priced in lies within the long end of the US Treasury curve. 10s/30s have steepened very aggressively since late August and are now at all time highs, very close to 146 which seems to be the key resistance. Where it gets very interesting is that 10s/30s conditional flatteners in US Treasury futures are getting close to flat. In other words one could buy a put on 10Y Treasury future and sell a put on 30Y Treasury future equally far out of the money in terms of yield for 0. If QE 2.0 delivers beyond expectation the market will certainly keep on rallying in which case both options expire out of the money and the trade is a wash. However if the market is disappointed and given that 5Y/7Y is where most of the buying is expected, 10Y futures (which have a 7Y duration) should bear the most selling pressure and the steepening in the long end would correct. Interestingly I had recommended the same trade for 5s/30s in early August and the day the structure traded at 0 was basically the day the curve topped after which it corrected over 40bps lower. The fact the strategy can be entered flat is key as it gives you staying power in the trade.
Good luck trading,
Nic
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The only volatility I am concerned about now is the volatility of my alcohol with my sleeping pills and dying my hair to black and blacking out my eyelids.
I don't think this is a for real suicide, more like a call for help.
it's a joke ppl. I have a dark sense of humor.
LOL, you do have a dark sense of humor for such a colorful pup!
You'll understand why I have it after watching the video.
http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/advice-dog
Socially Awkward Penguin!
Nice! I like the Philosoraptor myself...
Stay long through EOY, Nic. Maybe pick up some AAPL for the ride as well. I initially thought 1175 was the line in the sand but I think we'll blow through that after formal QE2 and election. Then sell in Jan 2011 - that's when it starts to get ugly again.
For once Harry, I am inclined to agree with you. Due to the huge short interest on the NYSE, there won't be a turnaround until they are thoroughly burned. Also, there are so few retail traders that the only benefit to the HFT's are to ramp these mrkts higher.
Ahh yes, the ShortenBurnen Omen...
What formal QE2, Harry? Better read the minutes again.
UE Welfare Report under 450K Thurs will put the lid on this shit.
Formal Q/E how, now that the markets and earnings are going so well? Wheres the fire that needs the Q/E hose on it?
I sense you're going to follow in the footsteps of Mr. Bravo.........
DWSJ Bitchez!
The key is bonds.
Today, they sold off in the afternoon after the 3-yr. auction.
It depends on how many mo-mo monkeys piled in TLT for "safety" suddenly want to exit and pile into stocks that pay better dividends and have more upside.
Nobody is going to buy AAPL after its huge run.
But a bunch of guys were jumping back into the cloud stocks today hoping to scalp off of a bounce.
And there are plenty of junk stocks still scraping the lows.
These guys could make a quick 10% in a week buying this garbage.
That is more than they can make in 3 years holding TLT.
n|m
Disagree with your comment about AAPL. Been hearing that since 250 four weeks ago. AAPL is about as guaranteed safe haven for these guys to make money as there ever has been. It'll continue higher for the next Q until it starts to sell in in the mid 300's.
Isn't AAPL the only real industry we have left in the U.S?
We also have mortgage fraud forensics and spill clean up.
...and private prisons, and casinos
and pharma and jets
Boeing, Cat, and some glass blowers in Colorado.
They blow Cats in CO? Damn.
good one.
Bond bubble is key yes, as long as the FED keeps buying up 75% of all bonds auctioned I guess the bond bubble might stay inflated a bit longer.
This is not going to end well. I can't believe what a keep hearing about all this.
http://www.tampabaycriminaldefenselawyerblog.com/Four%20Loko.jpg
This is what I drink. 1 of these is a little over 5 beers. 2 10.5 beers. 3 and your gonna hit the floor. But considering they taste like gasoline and can be consumed in 30 minutes makes it's all the worse.
I'm on my second one.
Cpr after four?
How to lose 55% in 19 days by Nic Lenoir!
+10000
EXACTLY!
Should I still buy the November VIX calls? They're only fifty cents a piece now. The market will crash when QE I ends... I mean when the Fed stops buying MBS... I mean when QE II begins/ends... (Maybe Nic junked you).
Mule, the look on that girl's face explains how the VIX has a tendency of exploding all over everyone who is not ready..........
Well, if you liked them at 100, you should love 'em at 45.
INTC skying.
Now watch Dan "The Greaseman" Niles come out with an upgrade on the entire sector tomorrow morning, citing "Christmas spending" or some nonsense.
LOL....
Surprise, surprise! INTC beat expectations that they lowered about six weeks ago. Amazing! And of course it's rally time!
exactly! total fucking fraud.
As I said, .7% (15 rapidly devaluing cents)...try not to spend it all in one place.
Intel up .20 cents, now back to flat? Wow yea what a blowout.
Isn't the Intel earnings the turn-around point? It has been several times in the last few years. Maybe 1172.58 was the blow-off top.
Isn't the Intel earnings the turn-around point? It has been several times in the last few years. Maybe 1172.58 was the blow-off top.
INTC stuffing the channels like mad? Accounts receivable up 480 million just last quarter. Wow pathetic.
UGLY, how did inventories look?
Robo, .7%? You can do better.
INTC up 3% after hours.............zzzzzzzzzzz.......
Try .7% once they actually started speaking...
I think that the whole purpose of this ForeclosureGate is to get FED the justification for bringing all bed mortgage related debt into its own balance sheet. its a double win situation , at least seemingly :) Ultimate try to reinflate the economy and posing as pro people , jeffersonianlike type of "federal" institution along wtith the government
I ma now with Robo's Rasputin: a doom and gloomer who's been reading all the wrong people. Cramer's right. Precter, Grantham, Grice, Rosenberg, Tyler Durden, Nic Lenoir and anybody else predicting any sort of significant failure are smoking angel dust. It will never go down. Not significantly. There will never be any change. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay insolvent is so quaint. It can stay irrational forever, or at least beyond our life spans. The record short interest is all you need to see. It is flat fucking impossible that retail bear shorts can withstand the complete and total manipulation that is the Fed/Wall Street complex. To be short here is to be terminally stupid as each and every last one of them will be carried out in a bag, not a stretcher. In fact, I think it's more likely ZeroHedge is a product of a GoldmanSachs agit-prop campaign than that the market will ever see a significant decline from here. They will not let it happen. Get over it. Get long or get out.
Pigmen win.
I have no idea why you got junked. The last two words of your post are worth more than any trading/investing advice Nic ever posted on this site.
Because many here are rightfully and righteously pissed off that 'justice' never prevailed. So am I. Throughly. But it doesn't change the fact that they will never let 'justice' in the door, let alone tidy up the room. They gangraped her in the alley, left her to die and sent in an imposter. It is what it is. Move on.
Game. Set. Match.
BTW: The GoldmanSachs agit prop comment was no throwaway line. I think the odds are better than even Tyler and friends are getting checks cut by 85 Broad. The Soviets used this sort of activity at one time. Why not believe that brilliant Wall Street money could create an economic blogsite analogue of the Tea Party, this time to suck in bear money rather than angry votes.
The pigmen win, agreed. It's their game after all, isn't it now.
The only way to win their game is to be a pigman, or walk away.
What I'm saying is lets let the pigmen play our game, which they cannot win.
It's called dodge the bullet, or run from the noose.
If you want we can play another of our games first, if you like, it's called burn their shit down.
Play their game, and lose. Play our game and win. Sooner or later we will figure this out.
Shit. All we have to do is take a month off unpaid, not buy anything, and not pay any bills... That's all it would take for Christ's sake! You could still watch tv, and porn, or whatever... not even get off your lazy ass.
Fuck. I'm done again for a day or two. I like this site better as a ghost. I don't see how CD does it day after day after day... No violence or mayhem is even necessary really, just an exercising of the power which we inherently have as a citizenry. Everyone's talking, and no one is listening, and no one is acting... sad.
It wouldn't be inaccurate to assume that I couldn't exactly not say that it is or isn't almost partially incorrect. Oh, on the contrary. I'm possibly more or less not definitely rejecting the idea that in no way with any amount of uncertainty that I undeniably do or do not know that ZH is an agent of GS...
These guys at ZH are no way in HELL affiliated with GS. If they are, they are as dumb as a horses arse.
Why in the hell would they post short interests when data is released? That all into itself is a indication TO GO LONG DAMIT. That's the freaking game plan you say they are attempting to "cover up."
Secondly, why is Leo still here or MadHF? These guys are quasi bulls.
Funny how the snake ends up eating itself.
Well, ZHers are some of smartest folks I've ever read. In order for this to be a GS agit-prop operation, it has be believable to some very smart people. Hence Leo as the stalking horse. I'm not saying it IS a GS A-P, I'm only saying I have learned to trust no one and nothing. If it turned out Tyler was actually Lucas Van Pragg or his assistants, I would be disappointed but not entirely surprised.
Welcome to the Golden Age of Cynicism.
Duplicate
Doubt and paranoia seeping into the thinking.........KGB being run by GS.......junks for speaking thoughts.........
Pigmen
Robot is the Rasputin
Marc Faber said this today......world heading for major inflection point. Instead of rates dropping rates may start to rise.
Instead of USD being weak the dollar may strengthen.
Faber tells investors to buy stocks and sell cash and bonds because governments are continuing to print too much money and may create a new credit bubble.
With all due respect to fundamental and technical analysis, and all of the obvious issues related to predatory capitalism the reality is that the central banks still run the show.
My guess is the story line is about to change as the script writers are busier than hell writing up another twist in the road.
Money meets Holly........wood.
...Tyler and friends are getting checks cut by 85 Broad....
Love it. ZH readers following in the ZH conspiracy theory tracks. But while we are waiting to see if Tyler is cashing 85 Broad checks there is this damn market to deal with. You can short it- just don't go short overnight unless you are hedged up to the gills. The drop this AM to retest last Friday's low was perfect. Can you splell short s-c-a-l-p? Had me cheering like the chileans are as their miners one by one surface. Patience traders. Won't be long now. Today's ' Fed rally' was pathetic. The dollar was kissing new lows and the market could hardly get above yesterday's close. This thing is top-heavy and can only be propped so long. Until then be in and out the same day. Nimble. Keep your powder dry.
Be that as it may, I can think of 13+$Trillion reasons why the US Economy is eventually gonna go down...
Bingo!
Gin?
I'd have a conversation with you, but 'the market always goes up' ain't a topic.
I was going to write this yesterday in response to Robo's Rasputin, but got distracted.
Unfortunately for the meme of the "doomer's are never right" - the doomer's HAVE been right. Of course, much of it depends upon how you view your time periods. Dow 14,000 to 7,000. Stocks no where for 11 years. The greatest housing bust ever. Bailouts of Greece, lots of banks in EU-land. Lots of bank failures state-side. GM gone.
Sure, there's been lots of money to be made both up and down, and most certainly the capital markets are still open. But, would you rather have been a gloomer 10 years ago and sold stocks and bought gold (and not bought a house), or followed Jeremy Seigal to Dow 36k?
You can jump up and down about INTC beating earnings and rising 1% in the AH. But take a look at a 10-year, 15-year chart and then let me know whether it would have been great to be bullish.
Yes, but has anything REALLY changed? The whole system went to hell at the hands of the Banksters. Yet, today, it is reported they will get record bonuses for a second straight year. The only thing that has changed is that they are even richer than before, the sheeple more put upon and the system more firmly grasped than ever before. The decline for the masses has been inexorably and incrementally downward. The ascent of the Plutocracy, one of astonishing swiftness and totality.
Pigmen won. Past tense.
Move on.
I agree with this statement. The Pigmen have won. Since 1913.
I thought we were discussing the stock market - which has not won. Granny is still underwater on her 5-year old GE purchase.
The Pigmen are the casino house. They get a little bit of everything coming and going. They have won.
Whether the stock market goes up or down from here is another matter. And whether the economy/stocks are more or less linked as well. Sometimes Harry and Robo get excited about the stock market, and how it is unlinked to the economy. To which I agree, but one should be sad at that - which is a part of the meme expressed by the doomers. I don't care whether stocks go up or down, but I do care about what is happening to our country, and it does not make me "happy".
@ Mr.Anon
I am bearish on the stock market but it doesn't mean I would ever short it with the Fed pumping anything and everything to high heaven in a vain attempt at inflating prices. Tyler imo has not been advocating to buy or short, only to get out. The pigmen haven't won the war, the disparity of wealth in this country is a sign that their is nothing left for them to steal.
We don't have the option of dragging this out much longer with our world reserve currency, it is what has kept us a float this long but when it breaks will flood our markets with generations of global imbalances.
Well, here's hoping you're right.
This is Fight Club, for gods' sake. Blow it all up.
Intel is up 30 cents to $20!
It was $80 ten years ago.
LOL!
Doomers are always right. Just got to fight all that stupidity out there.
I sometimes wonder about this. TD being psy-ops to encourage shorts. Killing the shorts seems to be the whole game lately. Someone want to argue against?
Nah, it's a honeypot intended to corral domestic financial terrorists.
One need not look further than the name of it's closest imitator - Net net. Get it?
"The Matrix" was already trade-marked.
There are plenty of other doomer sites out there. And ones that are doomer per se, but find the current news to be negative and 'disturbing' (which is where I would categorize ZH, though the news obviously does skew negative here).
But take the flash crash news cycle, re: SEC blaming a 75k contract e-mini sell order. Clearly one can go about finding plenty of people that also find this conclusion absurd.
And TD had a nice string of arb calls, and also made a comment awhile back about how peripheral CDS were cheap, just as they ramped back up to crisis levels.
I doubt it. Why expose all the dirty laundry? And killing shorts, that can be done anytime. If they wanted to they could run the Dow to 14k before the election. Infinite dollars and ability to game the system means they control where it goes. The only thing resembling a restraint is foreigners willingness to hold dollars. So don't see how ZH really plays into it from the angle of a controlled group.
That's what I've been saying. Here we have an entity more powerful than the pope and people are betting against it. Until I see a roadblock that prevents QE from working, Rally on. It's simple. The fed prints money. Money buys stocks, the markets rally . That's all you need to know.
Roadblock = Reality. It does bite, you know.
Makes sense. After all why would it go down? With the magic printing press and open market rigging all things become possible. I took my ball and basically went home. The only paper position I have is a long, though it's in a miner so it doesn't really count :)
But it is so much fun grabbing $20, sometimes $90, each day!
What, I'm gonna play golf?
Playing this fooked pig Market is cheaper than green fees.
Via Calculated Risk:
Tim Duy is deeply concerned: The Final End of Bretton Woods 2?
There is much more in the piece.
Back in 2005, I discussed Bretton Woods 2 with Brad Setser (Duy excerpts from one of Brad's pieces). I suggested that the housing bubble would collapse, reducing the U.S. demand for overseas goods and that would bring an end to Bretton Woods 2 - and that led me to predict that the trade deficit would decline in 2007 (a very lonely position!). However I didn't expect the imbalances to return so quickly, and that is very concerning. And I hope Tim Duy is wrong about how it ends.
they say you must be both morally and physically flexible in prison.
I'm going all in long...
hahahahahah
<sarc on>
Today was the day the last 20% of my soul which was clinging dearly to an orderly world,long lost, finally succumbed to the inevitable.Tomorrow I'm all in on gold, but I have a huge sense of sadness and I don't quite know why.
because we just witnessed 'peak America' for a very, very long time?
Peak Amerika:
+ 120,349,452,445,974.034
Ah chit, it changed!
"And then, something happened. I let go. Lost in oblivion. Dark and silent and complete. I found freedom. Losing all hope was freedom"
The times are changing, best we can do is let go of our bonds and greet the brave new world ahead with the best preparations we can. I understand the feeling. Buying in on gold is acknowledging the death of what was America, it's a rough hurdle to get over.
everytime that gold hits new highs it is confirmation that things are changing in a major way. even being long, there is an impending sense of doom and a feeling of needing to save everyone that will listen. needless to say, my "small talk" can use some work these days.
I hear ya! Took delivery of some high-speed Pb delivery devices today.
funny.
at the end of the day, police officers will be busy protecting their own families if there is a breakdown in municipal 'services'. right now, there are some folks in the city who do not even know we are in a recession. of course, this could change quickly.
safe.
Amen Bargin,
I keep thinking that today is the day I will sell the long side of the book. I keep thinking that I will, and that will feel good. But I don't, and it doesn't, and the fraud keeps on chugging along.
When the banks took the market higher today, I felt the same way as you. And that sadness...it comes because the only way we fix any of this is to watch it burn to the ground, first.
And it will....
And what Nic? SOSDD is just that
I assure you, this is no joke:
Even micro-cap solars are rallying:
Yea I dare you to show that chart in 5 year timeline, where it fell from $60.
Listen up fool, I didn't invest in solars at the top, but at the bottom. Most manipulated sector in the market. Come back to me in a year and tell me how stupid I was for touting solars. Please, just do me that favor.
Solars in a year will be crap. Enjoy your .04 cent gain in the mean time.
OK, thanks for that epihany! Now go back to those Yahoo boards with all those other cockroaches.
ha, ha! come on, Leo. don't take the bait. keep the moral high ground. you've had somed great posts. keep up the good work.
tempers flaring; funny!
Come on Leo... change your surname to Wanker. Just for shits and giggles...
Until proven guilty of being a bad trader, he did make a bunch of money here unlike others here.
Have fun Leo and keep at it. You've got balls. I'll say that for yaz.
Leo I know he is baiting you but come on. Didn't you know everyone buys from the bottom and sells at the peak.
Thanks, Leo, for turning me on to that churn factory LDK. Sold today.
I bought them when you reommended them factor of 10 higher! I still have evergreen @ 8.0
CSX doesn't need a QE2. In rails, it appears the economy is chugging right along:
"As the economy continued to improve, CSX saw volume growth in nearly all markets while delivering another strong performance in safety, service and productivity," said Michael J. Ward, chairman, president and chief executive officer. "These positive financial results are enabling the company to increase investments that create competitive advantages for customers, grow the business, create jobs and deliver shareholder value."
No one needs a Q/E2, INTC and the rest saying all is well look at our earnings. Now if Bennie and the Inkjets want to pump Q/E trillions to the banks theyll have to stage a big market crash.
I agree with you, but as you mentioned the banks want it. I don't think a market crash is necessary anymore. In fact, I think there will be a crash if they don't.
It looks like the recent mortgage mess will be their excuse. Of course it will be to help the homeowners. The real home owners that is, the banks.
yes the economy is chugging along. Intermodal mix shift away from truckers benefiting ST intermodal. Listen to the coal guys as they seek to move away from rails as they try and exercise their pricing power. Oh wow the auto business was up 44% y/y courtesy of Uncle Sam. Look at lumber loadings. To suggest that the CSX numbers portray anything remotely healthy is simply wrong. A company trading close to $60 earning at a $4 run rate. not cheap for a company that can't possibly sustain the operating leverage. You missed Posco.
Also note the onoging inventory build across the chain outpacing sales for the past several months on the bus side. Glut coming...
Another nail in QE2. Better sell those AAPLs, fool.
"These positive financial results are enabling the company to increase investments that create competitive advantages for customers, grow the business, create jobs and deliver shareholder value."
that's so ...so...let's see...1998-1999... or was it 2000...? Musta found it on a cocktail napkin in a former .com CEO's recycle bin...
just playin'...:)
Actually, since my office is next to a rail line that services a warehouse corridor into town. I have observed, anecdotally, there has been an increase in daily cars since 2008 (high fuel prices, and I bet month to month contracts are NOT the norm in transport business).
INTC says they see strong consumer demand. Guess no Q/E2 is needed, so sorry Bernanke you cant have it both ways. If you want Q/E2, youre going to have to have a big Oct market crash.
Right on.
How does QEII jive with this? (Hint: it doesn't)
Exactly, now I got Q/E2 experts telling me earnings are all the more reason for Q/E2, Im 100% sure there will be no Q/E at all, just more hype and manipulation until the blowoff top of this stupid pumped up market.
This has been my argument against QE 2.0 for quite some time.
People need to remember that the existence ZIRP/QE policy is a pretty rare bird, and this time, was predicated on extremely dire economic conditions.
Now... it appears we have a stable economy, tame (but not negative) inflation, and a clear recovery in earnings. The Fed sees a dangerous fliration with deflation, and unacceptably high unemployment-- and they sure aren't paying much attention to commodity prices.
So... there's some underlying belief in the FOMC that even more outright purchases of Treasuries is going to help, even though the reviews were mixed on the first round of QE. So... despite the outlook for continued economic growth through 2011-- more emergency monetary policy is needed.
If QE does happen -- and right now the prospect for meaningful action is dubious -- they need more evidence that employment and economic momentum are going to hell in a handbasket. The most that QE will do is to help build more reserves in the banking system-- and cause havoc in the FX markets worldwide.
And perhaps that's it... the bluff of all bluffs. You know, to get the $USD to more competitive levels, and the squeeze beyond the threshold for pain among the Euros. The dangerous thought from the FOMC is the belief that a lower dollar will result in greater more exports-- not if your trading partners throw their own trade protection salvos. This follows in the lines of thought that artifically supported asset prices will keep consumer confidence high and rising-- and that's something some FOMC members STILL believe.
Getting back on point... I wouldn't call anything Bernanke does a "bluff", though. I'm sure there's a deeper underlying reason, but he appears committed to $USD devalutaion-- whether it works or not.
Wow, I sense bear capitulation and bull giddiness.
The moral here is that if you are trading more than once a month or so, you are likely screwed either way. The "system" is going thru a death rattle and is systematically destroying every bit of value left anywhere. And that includes the value in traders discretionary accounts.
In 2007 all the same mantra was thrown around of "don't fight the Fed", "the dollar is going to zero", and "buy equities now or be priced out"...I am sorry to say this time is not different as it never is...a rally can only be sustained for so long on low volume and price gaps galore in major indices.
that's how the fed is going to reflate the economy. Pump all the money directly into the stock market which begets a serious stock bubble which begets a housing recovery then bubble which begets commodity inflation which begets wage inflation which begets higher fed taxes to close the deficit. brilliant.
Wage inflation with company margins being squeezed due to higher commodity input prices in an environment of very high unemployment...that my friend will not happen.
It's completley different, Bill, than in 07. They have committed to proping up global asset prices at all cost. Believe em. This time it is different.
I know the central planners are all completely insane...cannot argue with anyone on that point...I question how long they will be able to hold this whole thing together before something pops.
"if you are trading more than once a month or so, you are likely screwed either way."
People do that?
Regarding QE 2 and the stock market, if you strap a missile to a car with square wheels it'll go pretty far before blowing up.
Also, once I started reading these Goldman attachments I traded like crap. When I stopped, and went back to the basics, which to me means believing in nothing and no one, and reading for an edge rather than an opinion, I went back to trading ok. The Goldman stuff is good for people with large enough books to trade across asset classes simultaneously, it's not useful for small retail traders. And Jan Hatzius is conspicuously showing his face everywhere these days. Given what he's saying and today's FOMC minutes, QE 2 will probably be announced at over $1 trillion. $500 million is already priced in and the market would roll over if the announcement was that small.
I would like nothing more than to short the market, and I've certainly tried, and failed. Along with many on this site, I don't believe the economic future is bright. However there's no point in getting crushed by shorting. Long/short equities is actually doable right now, despite the high correlations, so I'm settling on that for now.
Remember buy the rumor sell the news. Bought Citi Nov. puts cheap. If C moves to 3.75 they will trade for .30 if they belly-up that's 4.00 to me like my Lehman puts. That was a very fine day.
Buy the rumor, sell the news? That's so old...
Now its buy the rumor and double buy the news thanks to the fed.
Bittah shorts, giddy longs.
Didn't someone suggest short equities, long PMs a few weeks ago?
I doubled down my SPXU before that last, damnable rush near EOD; and needless to say I am under water; 1/3 of the position remains to be put on but I'm not sure I will. I'm with the poster above, maybe just go all in gold and find another table.
Good luck and good trades; but for goodness sake don't dig in philosophically in a casino. We are here to make $$ not be right.
First post I ever did on this blog was at the start of September, in one of Nics posts. I said I was going to be long stocks due bearish sentiment and that the market participants will start pricing in QE 2.0. I also said that the economy will seem to be imporving and that we should break 1130, tricking everyone into believing it is a real break out. Majority should proclaim Double Dip dead. At that point the market shall suck in more and more inveators into the bullish camp. I did quite a large post explaining my reasoning.
Few days later the market took off and majority of comments were that it was a lucky and that soon I will give back my gains. Others said I was crazy to be long this market because economy is a complete pile of you know what. With comments from the crowd like "lucky" and/or "crazy" you know you have more of a chance of doing something right. It pays to be on the other side of the herd, majority of the time. Now the S&P 500 sits at 1170 and this "break" to the upside seems to be doing all the work necessary to turn bears into bulls.
I have not posted since. The comments on this blog have completely changed and it has only been 6 weeks. All of a sudden almost every single person commenting here had three symbols in their post - Q, E, 2. Almost every single person. That has become everyones excuse for a market rally. I will repeat what I just said - Majority of the time it pays to be on the other side pf the herd/crowd. No short moving averages have yet crossed over to signal the start of selling, and yet a lot of you have said that you tried selling short and you got burned. Well the bulls are still in charge so why go short... It is that simple. But that doesn't mean it's time to be bullish now, like it was at 1040 at the end of August. The comments, right now, on this blog from a lot of people are a long the lines of "you would be crazy to short this market", or that "shorting this market is suicide" or that "you should not fight the Fed".
Hello short term memory crowd! You've forgotten everything so quickly... You should have been saying that at 1040 as majority were bearish, but now you are singing that song at 1170. I would not listen to tips about what other people say. Some guy here called Harry Wang or whatever, recommended to buy the most over crowded trade in the world - Apple. He also recommended to stay long until year end. I mean even if he is right, why take that risk and buy high and try and sell vertically higher? Every single hedge fund manager will liquidate tomorrow if shit hits the fan. If Harry Wang is bullish until year end, why not buy depressed assets?
Inexperinced inveators like him chase bulls. It shows that he has never made any real serious money. I could be wrong here, but in my industry no hedge fund manager that bets 100,000s of dollars sounds like this guy. Smart inveators don't chase bulls, they chase bears. Smart investors do not take tips from where the action is - Apple - smart investors go where there is quiet. Why doesn't he talk about Natural Gas or Rough Rice or Ice Cocoa. If he is bullish on stocks until year end, commodities shall do even better and buying depressed cheap commodities is always smarter than buying things at record prices. Besides commodities shall do much better if one is to believe QE 2.0 will work like he does. So why buy stocks when commodities like Sugar, Coffee, Corn and Rice are all up 30 to 70% since June 07th when Dollar top against the Euro.
Commodities I mentioned are all down this year, some like Natural Gas, two years in the row, while Apple is making records, day after day. You will always know who makes a lot of money in investing, they are not the ones singing bullish songs at the top or bearish songs at the bottom. Stay away from tippers like that.
There is now the largest ever amount of futures short on USD across currency majors. Only 3% of inveators are bullish on the greenback. Every single newspaper in the world has now written the Dollar off. Yen is on the front page of Tokyo Daily, Swiss Franc is making headline all across Zurich, Aussie Dollar has been on every single front page newspapper from The Australian to Financial Review. The Dollar is also a depressed asset. Why not buy low against the crowd? I guess it is a "crazy" thing to do. And when the Dollar rallies hard, it will be just a "lucky" trade again. Good luck!
nice post
The post stinks of tactics without strategy especially as it relates to being long dollar and long commodities. Making contrarian arguments for the sake of it is like cheering every 5% dip and missing the 6x upside move. America 2.0.
Chart: ES
Frenzied buying at the top folks. Looks like the last steps required to define a new channel; it's pointing down.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/es_12.html
Chart: DX
Keep your eye on the USD as it completes its backtest of the upper trendline of a falling wedge; this looks to be bullish (with or without BoJ intervention).
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/dollar_12.html
Remember...
the dollarchief on this ride, also. Now's the time.
Chart: EUR/USD
Diamond Top.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/eurusd_11.html
Prechter just advised his subscribers to go short the S&P with maximum leverage.........
Prechter...........short...........???????
....... with MAXIMUM LEVERAGE! :D
Ben's got the money hose on, why fight the tape...it's just too damn painful to be short this thing! At some point it's the right trade but for now, put on your bananna sling and jump in! Of course you may want to hold your nose!!
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