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Disappointing ADP Comes In At -23K, Consensus Was For +40K
And just to make the miss a little more palatable, February was revised from -20K to -24K just to not show a double dip inflection point. Also, keep in mind the increasingly largest employer, the US Government, is not accounted for. Next up: Friday NFP and a +200,000 consensus, of which February snow counter-adjustments and census is about pretty much all of that.
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So if I read this correctly, we'd have to gain about 600K jobs just to make up for the declines in the ADP employment number that have accumulated since the "recovery" got started.
Bullish, obviously.
jobs are soooo 20th century..
idle citizens are the devil's workshop
21st century serfs on the "Farm-Ville", brought to you a al FACE BOOK.....BASE FOOK.....THE PLACE WHERE THE FACES MEET THE BOOK>>>>WHERE THE FACES AND THE BOOK MET. BOOK FACE MET> BOFAMET. BAFOMET.
Buy QQQQ!!
= more stimulus = more Bernanke = rally
I think you are right. We seem to be beginning to rally on bad news and sink on good news. Tends to indicate "toppyness" (not to be confused with "truthiness").
I still think it's going to take something systemic breaking down before a correction though (e.g. Japan defaults, an additional $400B Euro debt discovered in the belly of the PIIGS, etc.).
I spent some time last night gazing at charts, particularly going back to the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2007 when the markets topped. The pattern is very similar to now, with some candlestick tails pointed up and some closes at the bottom of the range.
To me this shows no "umph" to the market, no drive to move higher. Looking at volume charts on each of those days, the selling volume at the end of the day was hard and convincing. The rats were running down the gangplank, not wishing to remain on board overnight.
We shall see but I think this party is about over. The wild card is another artificially induced "goose" to the market. But so many so called "experts" are now beginning to question this relentless drive higher. The "market" is beginning to question itself. I went back and looked at the WSJ and NY Times during the second half of 2007 and I saw the same thing, lots of people questioning how the market could go higher in the face of obvious credit problems.
Deja Vu all over again.
Who needs jobs when you have a rising stock market?
I hear ya Zack. We don't need no stickin jobs, what we need is a 8:30 tee time.
Best avatar/image ever created. When I want to have a laugh at the greedy, unconscious schmucks walking around the streets of the big city glued to their shitty I-Phones and Blackberries, the lyrics of "Have a Cigar" and "Pigs" come screaming through my head! Love it.
Oh by the way, which one's Pink?
Totally awesome.
Then it's too late to lose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown
As you go down, all alone
Dragged down by the stone.
"And did we tell you the name of the game, boy.
Pink Floyd Have a Cigar New York 1977:we call it Riding the Gravy Train."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiSnAkdVycg&feature=related
I think the previous album Meddle had the best line from "One of these days".
"One of these days I'm going to cut you into little pieces"
Last song by "Old Pink"
"Careful with that Axe Eugene"
"kill kill kill kill"
Spring is hope eternal.... we keep buying equities right? Thanks Tyler for pointing out a valid reason for last months adjustment, I thought that was unusual but didnt "get it". Usually they wait until the year ends for revisions, last years were revised down 800k I believe? It didnt matter because it was so last year.
Has anyone ever done an analysis on "private sector" supplied economic data versus "Government" supplied economic data to see whether there is a significant divergence is terms of trend?
Tyler, get the research department working on that pronto!
John Williams does this at shadowstats.com
Thanks. I will have to take a closer look. I thought he only did "old method" vs. "new method" analyses...
No worries.
IRE is up 8% pre-market, they are buying the junker Irish banks again today.
And looks like HON just reported, stock is up again after being up like 20 days in a row.
LOL....
"Pushing on a string" is one of those catch phrases people often use despite really not understanding the magnitude of the phrase. When an economy is completely disfunctional as the global economy is right now - with stimuli propping things up well above where things should be propped in an effort to reassemble humpty dumpty rather than spending less, contracting, letting the system clean itself out and then start a new sustainable upcycle -- you can print all the money you want, throw whatever gimmicks you want at it, it will not work.
Very simple law of economics at work here -- areas above the curve must by definition be followed by areas below the curve. The US consumed 7% more than it earned for a decade, and the world built infrastructure to support that habit.
Unlike 100% of wall street strategists, your average 9 year old understands you cant correct this in a year by repeating the exact same behaviors that created the initial problem.
LOL CNBC just reported that Helicopter Ben and the FED are SHOCKED! ROFLMAO
One of the biggest crooks of our time, Ben Bernanke, is shocked about bad jobs reports. Just goes to show even Bennie cannot save this economy.
Can you print jobs? If so, Ben will be the employer of first, last, and only resort.
"Here son, I'll print you a job. When you grow up and finish college, I'll give you a job priming the printer, loading the ink, and running the paper rolls. How about that?"
Perfect setup for tomorrow morning, with the bond market open for an hour on Good Friday, there will be low liquidity. If there is a huge upward surprise in non-farm payrolls, which is highly likely, then watch out.
Leo, why is huge upward surprise highly likely?
Because that's what the Gubermint wants/needs to happen. And they're the ones creating/releasing the data.
For the same reason Bernanke was shocked...it's a government report. Get it? ;)
This is the entirety of the problem - who cares what the number is tomorrow? We already know the answer - companies are not hiring because they understand this isnt a sustainable recovery, this is a science experiment, and after being burned 3 times in 10 years by the same economic policy, they are not gonna be the idiot who runs out and staffs up right as the whole thing rolls over.
And look at the consumption intentions of consumers - same deal. This idea of "pent up" spending is literally absurd - most families are living hand to mouth (look at what jumped in the consumption report last month - food and fuel, both of which are going up in price because of the money printing stupidity)
Did it matter in 2007 that paulson said subprime was contained? ofcourse not. why does it matter in 2010 that geithner says employment is improving?
Science experiment is the perfect definition. The entire worlds' economy has been one giant experiment since Nixon took the US off the international Gold standard and everyone decided unfettered fiat with the USA as the "anchor" was the next best thing since sliced bread.
The advances in computer technology, financial machinations and "product" innovation has keep the exquisite corpse kicking much longer than nature intended. The reversion to mean will be a bitch.
http://www.corpse.org/
Experiment???
Or just the execution of the final phase of the plan?
Got ammo?
Does the term "Singularity" ring a bell?
carbonmutant,
I'm continuously amazed and delighted as my forays into philosophy lead me straight into quantum mechanics and other disciplines. Talking to a friend of mine in that field, he tells me he and his colleagues regularly venture into philosophy for answers and inspiration.
I remind my friend that science is simply one way of describing what we know and what we think we are. The really interesting questions and answers lay within and our (collective) consciousness already has the answers, especially to questions we haven't even begun to ask. I've been telling him this for 10 years. He's now beginning to believe me.
While many futurists are looking for a "Technological Singularity" I think we can make a case for the fact that we are in the middle of a "Financial Singularity".
ADP report has generally not been predictive of anything for many years now.
Census hiring ramped up. Useless temporary jobs, and every government job is actually an anti-job, but jobs nonetheless.
BLS is playing the underpromise/over-deliver game with its numbers. Concensus is set for +200K, they've talked it down from +300K a few weeks ago. The important thing will be to parse out the public sector and private sector jobs.
ETA: Oh, yes, and they'll be adding 100K back in as those missing snowjobs from February are mysteriously found.
I predict +350K, balls min.
Another tell is, BLS is hosting a live chat Friday morning:
http://www.bls.gov/chat/
I wonder if they'd do this if they thought the numbers would be bad?
"I wonder if they'd do this if they thought the numbers would be bad? "
'thought'?
What's the speculate about. They already know exactly what the numbers are.
No volume, no participants. The Gov/Fed/Goldman/JPM (take your pick) can pump the shit out of it if they like, no resistance.
what people dont get is that the stock market is a pimple on the bond markets ass, if the number is as big as leo claims, bonds should sell off, the 10yr might break 4%, and how is that good for the zero interest rates, the FED will always cater to BOND market, not stock market. The Fed will be forced to raise rates.
I will repeat this again. Think carefully. The jobs number have had NO effect on the market other than a 1 hour or so blip. At this point in time the market has nothing to do with the economy.
Perhaps this is the inflection point. We're headed back down (slippery) slope.
On a side note: Since most US blue chip stocks and most 'other' stocks sell internationally, do you think the US stocks have now become more intrinsically international and therefore are getting most of thier profits overseas? In other words, the US economy is in the hole, but if you take the profites from Rest-of-the-World, a US-based company can still pull in respectable profits in total?
Case in point: Chris Zook of Bain & Co.'s strategy office recently moved to Europe in order to -- in my pure guess -- to position Bain to access growth from international markets. If Bain (and McKenzie and the like) are the one's CEO's call when they get stuck, then why not just monitor the actions of Bain as opposed to thier advice. If Bain is, in a way, fleeing the sinking ship of the US (by seeking big growth in EurAsia), then perhaps that's the trend going forward? And since these profits get funneled back to the US headquarters (ok, mabye for repatriation taxes the cash stays overseas, but it is at least reported back in the US) then we may end up having many big US companies 'succeeding' internationally while the bottom falls out of the local US economy. Know what I mean?
If the US goes down, so does the rest of the world. China is running on stimulus, nothing more right now. If the US dollar remains weak, US co's will make it up on the currency. If it strengthens, which I think it will on a relative basis, say goodnight.
wrong about china .. your source ,,
it appears to me that china has begun to shift to internal demand , what with a few biilion mouths to feed . all seeking a better life, not a debt, sounds like that start of some special gains ,
this idea that with out the usa feeding at the trough of china imports .
looks like japan , other areas are taking up the slack,
Good lord, how stupid is this writer! DUH. All industrial powers start this way! Britain began by exporting cheap cotton cloth which competed with expensive wools and silks! And China is rapidly climbing the ‘value-added export’ ladder.
culture of life news
can we say ego centric thinking ,
That damn snow! Where's global warming when you need it?
It's floods this week, not snow.
Markup week. Better not stand in anything's way on the long side.
Does it matter? It's not like anyone is safe when a giant mound of debt collapses.
yes. we need to sweep these shenanigans under the rug and move forward.
or was it tomfoolery?
There are greater chances of me finding a new set of lungs than there are of a recovery in the next 10 years ...
Good luck with the lungs nonetheless.....
Find yourself a wild babe. She'll have you breathing heavy in no time.
Seriously CB, are you talking about real health problems for yourself? The ZH community would like to know if one of it's most beloved members is OK or not. Let us know CB. Lot's of white light and good vibes will be directed your way. If nothing else, the emotional high will work wonders.
no man, nothing to share. slight health problems induced by decades of smoking. i'll be fine. but thanks for the positive vibes.
Ditto - have been wondering where you have been, it's been a little less sunny around here with you in absentia, and our thoughts and prayers for a prompt rebound are with you.
Don't worry, there will be plenty of drifters that you can kill for organs soon enough.
A recession when your neighbor loses his job,
A depression when you lose your job,
You take another job making far less,
What do you call it when you lose that one?
Time to F-off to a third-world dive, with nice beaches, live in a shack and surf?
fuck surfing; just drink yourself to happiness ....
Drink whilst surfing? I could start a new trend....
no no; you dont seem to grasp the concept of drinking oneself to happiness; you know that famous Mike Tyson maxim/proverb; " I'll fuck you till you love me ... ". Well the same imperative can be applicable when it comes to drinking oneself to happiness. and no, it should by no means whatsoever include any other physical activity.
Mmmm; beer. Both the cause and solution to all my problems...
Where do I sign up?
No recovery in Lower Man CRE= No Credit avail=no Need for Paper pushers=No Recovery.
This is really killing the market. We're down almost 1 point in the SPX with financials, energy, basic mat, commodities all higher.
Its not about markets or economics at all, its about trying to keep the Barbarian Hordes at bay a bit longer.
yep......like bust it out beginning April 7, but only because April Fools Day might be a bit obvious. Then rinse and reset for a new 2nd quarter bonus spin cycle.
What about the millions of small businesses that use QB and a bookkeeper or local accountant to do payroll? Are they surveyed?
This market makes as much sense as:
"It's a God awful small affair to the girl with the mousey hair,
but her Mummy is yelling no and her Daddy has told her to go
but her friend is no where to be seen. Now she walks through a sunken
dream to the seats with the clearest view."
David Bowie - Life on Mars
"THERE ARE NO JOBS!" -GERALD CELENTE
Fear not my boy, fear not !
There must be a war or two in the planning and a draft legislature which will take care of all that " surplus labour ".
Can you say; Cheney/Whoeverthafuckwillbetheotherguy 2012
Cheeky, Cheney has already had 5 heart attacks, I don't think he will be running. Bush III would drive the libs crazy, where is Jeb when you need him?
Sorry Mench Bush III is already taken!
Cheney would therefor be Bush IV.
He would be a shoe in, not to fix anything but to drive them crazy yes.
DIE BOLD, afterall.
I expect the jobs report on Friday to be paraded by the media despite the increase in jobs being from "temporary" census workers, who are again payed for by my taxpayer dollars. You can't keep fueling growth through public spending forever.
The Macro View
http://themacroview.wordpress.com
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