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Disappointing NFP: Private Up Just 71k On Consensus Of 90k, Total Down -131K on Consensus -64K
July Non Farm Payrolls miss expectations, coming in at -131,000, way below the consensus of -65,000, yet the unemployment rate drops once again to 9.5% as even more people drop out of the labor force. Total Private Payrolls rise only 71k, on consensus estimates of +90k. The June Jobs report is revised majorly downward to -221K, from -125K, as the double dip gets yet another validation. The 2 Year Treasury just hit another fresh all time low of 0.5136%. And the stunner: those working actually declined by 159,000 to 138.960 million, even as another 381 thousand left the labor force between June and July, resulting in an actual drop in the unemployment rate from 9.6% to 9.5%. Another NFP debacle which will certainly cause stocks to sure by at least 5% as QE 2 is now absolutely inevitable.
- U-6, or real unemployment, is flat at 16.5%
- The average duration of unemployment is now 34.2 weeks, Median 22.2
- 44.9% have been out of a job for longer than 27 weeks.
- Birth/death adjustment just 7k, compared to 147k in June
- The only silver lining: average hourly earnings up 0.2% to $22.59, even as total private hours increased from 34.1 to 34.2, as those employed have to do triple-duty
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Buy the little dip this morning?
right shoulder at 10700, go short here
Breaking out of bottoming pattern - trend is up, correction over
http://i35.tinypic.com/ztjgnt.jpg
you can by my shorts realtick, good luck!
Trying shorting this one.
http://www.barchart.com/charts/stocks/IBM
New high for IBM imminent - the labor forces' loss is their gain (automation, outsourcing,etc.)
great! well you go ahead and fill you boots on IBM. ill see you at DOW 10,000 in a few weeks.
What's your final DJIA target - 10,000, 7,500, or are you in the Prechter DJIA 1000 camp?
what, you dont have a link to a chart? Rangebound realtick and it looks like we are near the top. No need to get shitty
Just asking - not an unfair question.
For real, is your final price target the March 2009 lows, or is it below that?
Wouldn't you like to see the Aussie dollar and Euro roll over before getting short?
My apologies realtick, i thought you were having a crack mentioning Prechter who i think is a douche but does have some interesting points on deflation.
Ive got no idea where any of those things are going. The AUD looks like its very tired around US90c and not much good news coming out of china lately. The euro also looks tired with euribor issues on the rise. I dont think its a case of one going first as there is no diversification anymore everything now moves together. But i do think this below which i posted on another thread much earlier today.
"The FED has done its job wiping out all the nasty shorters and ramping the market enough to get them through the bad GDP number last week and the bad NFP number tonight.If they keep ramping the market they are going to make it too obvious and the game will be up. people are already starting to ask questions.
They wont care if the market drops back to 10,000. they will probably be the ones that sell it down there,close out their longs and replenish cash so they can add support lowed down becuase they know they will need to.
either play the game or sit on the sidelines Bitchez! Im going short."
Best move I've made lately - now I always look at the daily SPY simultaneoulsy with the VWO (Vanguard's Emerging Markets ETF) and the VIX.
The VWO reversed higher and the VIX lower on May 25th and have been trending together since then (VWO up, VIX down).
The SPY is lagging (made new trading low in early July) but following EM's higher.
USA no longer leading like in the 90's, but also not imploding anytime soon.
Here's the chart: http://i37.tinypic.com/65mi46.jpg
+ 10
Hyperinflation signal? God help us.
OH the pattern always signals 'sticksave' you mean during the last year of wild printing and pumping! I wouldnt bet on it.
I thought the 9.5% unemployment rate was unchanged?
me too, it was 9.5?
me too, it was 9.5?
And the stunner: those working actually declined by 159,000 to 138.960 million, even as another 381 thousand left the labor force between June and July, resulting in an actual drop in the unemployment rate from 9.6% to 9.5%.
Thanks for the clarification Tyler. MSM reporting flat MoM rate of 9.5%.
It was 9.5% prior month. Survey called for 9.6%.
Leo, comments please? Where is 'the surprise to the upside'?
He buys, never sells. Kinda like a horse that never wants to take a crap.
fyi, they die that way...their system only works in one direction. Any issues and it's game over. Much like what we see day to day here.
so, Leo is full of horse shit?
I was laughing so hard my hand was shaking, preventing me from clicking on "reply".
I love ZH precisely for these little gems in the comment section. One person says one thing which leads to another and another until the diamond is unearthed.
Bravo!!!
Lay off Leo. Don't you know that Leo warned of the financial crash of 2008/2009 way back in 2006 which cost him his job? Just ask him. Bravery equivalent to that of a soldier diving on a live grenade to save the others in the unit.
Sorry, but Leo is better characterized as a suicide bomber.
LMFAO!
I welcome Leo's comments, but it is fair game to point out that he keeps calling for a surprise 300K+ jobs report and I only ask: what is the driver for that? There is nothing even remotely going on out there in the real US economy that would give grounds for predicting such things. I'll grant you that the S&P measures the apparent (and I'll predict, eventually short-lived) success of a very narrow band of US companies who have benefited from TARP and stimulus and exposure to foreign markets, and even there, the push is on for greater efficiencies, not more employed workers. And given all that, I question why the prediction is made to begin with.
With 2 yrs at .5%, some form of QE is coming, but as before, it will do nothing for the real economy, only for the phony financial speculation portion of the economy. And further government stimulus will not replace the wealth rapidly evaporating as the money supply continues to contract.
Deflation.
Junk away, but the truth will set you free. I'm simply tired of all the revisionist history and self-aggrandizing people like Leo always claiming they were "right" (i.e. called the crash, called the rebound, etc.). Nothing but gratuitous horseshit.
Im with you Astute, Leo is a clown.
I'm sure we lost census jobs, and that messed up the numbers. But give me a break does anyone think we actually been adding jobs like crazy... NO
-96k revision. Amazing.
Agreed. Just as amazing is the fact that most of the private sector job gains this year were created in April and May. There's your "bump" in private sector hiring. Don't forget that the census deduction will extend for another month or two.
BTW, has anyone seen the actual claimed numbers of census hires and then has anyone been subtracting those "hires" back out to see if they even out? I would be interested is seeing that. I suspect that if it were done around Nov, we might find a few tens or hundreds of thousands more hired than fired.
Just my opinion but there was no doubt that the Census played with the numbers. I personally have two semi retired clients that worked for the census. They were both fired and hired a few times.
The census workers will be included in future revisions. They will claim they "didn't know the exact numbers" by the time of release of the payroll reports.
Census worker who cant count.... I love it.
***Even Out***
***Add Up***
Basic Math?????
CD, that's just anarchist talk!
Are you throwing bombs and yelling fire?
Good God, Man...Are you trying to panic the herd?
/sarcasm off/
LOL
Yup, I am. How am I doing? Poorly I see. The cows are still chewing their cud and the bulls are still trying to mount the cows. No panic here I'm afraid.
The Ministry of Truth has the herd well under control.
Im wondering, since census workers end up being 0 when netting them out, whats the point of them first having increase employment and then decreasing it?
Anything besides to manipulate the #s?
The hope is...(just like the last census) that you add them in so things look better earlier and by the time they back them out things are humming a little better in general so you don't notice. Not really working that way.
A revision is when you correct a minor statistical error. A restatement is where you disclose outright fraud.
Seriously....100k revision to a 120k initial figure??? No point in producing the initial figure if that's all the better you can do.
Bingo, that's the real and largely under-reported story here.
I expect a similar revision to this months' numbers in SEP.
Why aren't futures up more than this? Isn't this just evident more so of the "Pause" that we're undertaking?
Where is the Ministry of Information?
From MiniTruth aka msnbc:
WASHINGTON — U.S. employers cut a larger-than-expected 131,000 jobs in July as the nation’s jobless rate held steady at 9.5 percent, according to the Labor Department’s monthly employment report, released Friday.
The July jobs report showed private employers, who account for the bulk of jobs in the country, added 71,000 jobs last month.
“The good news here is we are not falling off a cliff; were getting job growth,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, told CNBC. “But obviously this is not enough. If we don’t see better job growth this year and next the recovery is in jeopardy.”
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
- And, of course, nothing about a massive downward revision.
Zandi is such a tool. Give me a break.
Barbiera (or whatever the f his name is) makes Zandi look like a ZH regular. If he was chief economist for Lehman it is really no wonder they blew sky high.
He serves his masters well. He has figured out how to prosper in the burgeoning propaganda biz.
He's publicly auditioning for Romer's soon-to-be-vacant job.
Basil Marceaux avatar ftw!
He's my hero! Dude has guts, if not much else.
This year AND NEXT YEAR? This fucker thinks we can bleed off a few more million jobs before the 'recovery' will be 'in jeopardy'?! I can feel the vomit pooling in my throat.
Jesus Christ, can we stop this fucking pollyanna spin job already?
Unfortunately no because that's their job, to spin. The lies aren't intended to convince you and I to change our minds. They are intended to keep the deer frozen in the headlights and the believers to stay believers.
Job number 1 is to lie lie lie.
Indeed... The truth at this point would mean market capitulation.
Bloomberg headline: Private companies add 70K jobs.. You can't make this stuff up..
What kills me is, how can anyone have trust in numbers after the revisions.. Will there be a point when the minister of truth has lost all believers?
CD, like everyone standing around a shaking pressure cooker with the lid further duct taped and bungee corded shut....yes 'all is well', well, until it suddenly and violently ISN'T!
Agreed.
BUT the game is to push that event into the future. Let me use a wonderful line by Todd Harrison @ Minyanville back in 2008. They sold the car crash and bought the cancer. And as we all know, with aggressive treatment, the ultimate finality of malignant cancer, death, can be put off for a long time.
At first, the "patient" doesn't suffer much discomfort. Even as the discomfort ramps up, it's all relative. Because the ramp up in pain is slow, we have a tendency to become accustomed to it and become much more tolerant of the slow rise in pain than the sudden car crash agony.
This is their game. The slow increase in the temperature of the water until it finally comes to a boil. By that time, people will beg for drastic measures. Take my freedom (what's left) take my paycheck, take my first born, just stop the pain.
I love the "recovery is in jeopardy" bit.
I have hated this guy from the first time I heard his voice, makes me want to punch him. How can anyone even think about calling this a recovery.
He's a tool of an assclown.
Someone give Barry a donkey and some palm leaves so he can save us from his atrocious economic plans.
Seems like payrolls are no longer a reliable indicator.
Actually thats the problem. The payroll numbers they give are a horrible indicator, and real sad they have to fluff up the numbers and spin it into a positive. All it takes is a little research and people wll find the real shape we are in. I come to this site all the time, and Yeah it might not always be good news, but at least you get to hear the real news. Keep up the good work ZH. Another place I get some info http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
I don't know about anyone else but all theses number just make me sick.
smallest D/B adjustment in a year or so
Who cares, Sunday night the stock index futures will rise like a balloon, Monday we will gap higher and todays report will be history.
LOL. Probably!
Crash Friday?
You are joking, With this job report we should be adding at least 60-100 points on the Dow.
You're kidding, right?
Check out the action this morning. We should be off a couple of percent, instead we hit a hard stop at about -0.7% and it's been straight up on zero volume ever since.
That said, it does look like someone hit CTRL+ALT+DEL on one of the WOPRs in GS' basement at around 10:30 this morning.
U6 is up also. The Obama administration is going to get crushed in November as is the Fed who will get a lot of the blame as we head back into negative GDP territory soon....
Doubtful.
Media support still at full throttle.
Johngalt you're right, the media cant help Obama and the rest at this point, they're hated in the streets and they know theyre about to get curb-stomped in Nov.
http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2010/08/05/an-august-surprise...
Can anyone explain hows that is supposed to set everything right? People still wont be able to make their payments if they cant make them now.
Agree they richly deserve to be crushed; disagree that they will be. The Rethuglican alternative is not there. They will take some hits, but stay in charge.
Didja see those futures plummet? It was almost "normal"... nostalgic. Asleep at the wheel, 33 liberty?
They don't get in until 3:30 PM EST
Standard play book. Open lower, jam it up in 5 mintues, grind it up and open the buying faucet all day long.
We will end flat or slightly green today.
look at the bloomberg spin " Company payrolls rose by 71K in July ; US unemployment rate at 9.5 % ......" good....and the European markets move up for the moment
Looks good for a 200 point rally, shorting faz
Any dip will just be temporary, before we power on to new highs. Volume has to be sucked in before shorting
How quaint, another bull. Look everyone we have a Bull here, handle with care.
"Any dip will just be temporary"...you mean to tell me you're buying into this market?
Have you no sense of decency sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?
DarkMath these moron permabulls deserve the complete beating theyre about to take. This 'new conventional wisdom' (market always up, no matter what) leaves reality at the curb, and one morning soon everyone will be looking at a massively down market and the story that caused it saying 'WOW we never saw THAT one coming'! I guarantee it, anyone in the market today will be violently whipsawed before you have a chance to do anything about it. Everyone forget the 'flash crash'? Nah...market only up from now on, right?
I'm afraid you are both missing the point. Am certainly not bullish fundamentally, since I can find no reason to be so. However, I am not going to short until the market has exhausted its upmove with some volume. You guys go ahead and piss your money against the wall, or burn theta, or whatever else you want to do. I'll short higher up thanks. Try reading some older posts from me and you'll see I only want to buy equities when the true forward PE is single digit.
Muppets.
381,000 left my butt!
Did it hurt?
Modern day Goebbels' in ecstacy over their propaganda miracle: that so many people, orgs and corps STILL pay any attention.
GBP and the Euro spiking on the news.
Well, that makes sense also. As if Euroland is any better. Jesus, welcome to the 4th dimension.
Well, the deficit of the Eurozone as a whole is a lot better than the US or the UK. It's just that most of the surplus is German.
Sort of the equivalent of the idiocy Krugman displays when he calls the crisis a "savings glut". Absolutely, there are a lot of savings. But it's focused in a few nations, and those nations without it are in deep shit, one of which he lives in.
What? In absolute terms, that's right, but per capita it's actually worse. Either way, it's unsustainable so what difference does it make?
6.3% of GDP.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-22042010-BP/EN/2-220...
Ah...deficit, sorry, I thought you meant sovereign debt. Anyway, have a deficit at all onto the euro debt levels is suicide.
I like the headlines quoting "less than expected"... is reminds me the Monty Python sketch .... "Nobody expects the spanish inquisition".
I could clearly see the sketch with Ben having his breakfast this morning until Monty Python gang break into the room shouting "Nobody expected the NFP decline". That would be awesome.
The markets to be re-classified as "Living-impaired!" :D
15 months in a row of U-3 unemployment above 9% is good news, no?
But the unemployment rate stays the same, again, due to a large reduction in the total workforce, again. Obviously to try and keep the picture rosy. Are all of these missing people dying, leaving the country, or digging through garbage cans?
They are 'discouraged' and thus don't count because they aren't looking. You know, just to make it absolutely fraudulent.
Is anyone keeping a count of how many "fall off" every month?
I would have thought that after such a long time with no income those people would not be discouraged, but be among the keenest and most easily encouraged to find work?
And to say they have stopped looking is tantamount to calling yourself a twat.
i.e a very stupid thing to say....
Who cares! US companies are cutting jobs here and staying profitable becaue of it, while at the same time selling more and more to the rest of the globe and 'emerging' markets. It's a win-win for the stock market baby!
(don't know wheather to turn sarcasm on or off here)
71k/50states= 1420/state for 20 work days = 71 jobs/day/state that sux..
revisions were severe (but if revised up, the market would have rallied like no monday)
so, this should be good to break up to 11000 in a day or 2, on planet Htrae
Futures have suddenly hit the airbrakes at -75 on the DOW. Watch the melt up to the opening bell. Honest to god, someone(s) need to go to fucking prison at this point.
Your tax dollars are being used to
cheat you out of profits.
Grr.
nice spike in gold..
Indeed.
this is bullish buy buy buy
"It could have been worse"
"The bad news were already priced into the market"
"Looks like the worst part is behind us"
I wonder which lie we get fed today. Place your bets now.
Oh, the classic: "It is no use pointing fingers and using up our precious little energy with Witch Hunting. Let's bravely move forward!"
I luv that one, it still actually makes my hair stand up.
When all the participants are covered in excrement, that excuse is trotted out so no one will be accused of starting the mess. In other words, since everyone is equally to blame, no one should be blamed.
The ultimate in moral cowardice. Though who are the real moral cowards here? Those that promote this excuse or the rest of us for doing nothing about it? I vote the latter. We already understand the ones covered in excrement are moral cowards precisely because they are covered in feces.
How about the classic "we're all in it together" while Mrs Obama takes a $250K vacation in Spain.
I'm a glass is half full kind a guy. The upside to Michelle "Antoinette" Obama is this time around we'll get bigger champagne glasses. BTW your est. of 250k is off by aleast afactor of 10
Hey, this is a plus. 131,000 off the government payroll! oh wait, forgot they will all go on unemployment...Now they can be paid for doing even less!!!! Ain't America grand.
Dissapointing'? Hell its a blowout in anyones book. Well I guess it was also considered dissapointing when the Titanic went nose down too, and dissapointing when there were only lifeboats for half the passengers.
So the DOW +100 today then?
No, no, no - you have it all wrong. The Titanic sank 'faster than expected', and the number of lifeboats was 'slightly below expectations'.
Looking for DOW +80 today...
I saw the writing on the wall in spring 2009 - made preparations to leave USA and on June 29th, 2009 I was living in a different country. I have a job now.
what other countries do you suggest?
Given that ALL world countries are essentially Marxist-Communist (ie, ALL world countries have a Karl Marx suggested "central bank" and centrally controlled economies) the options are to pick the "least bad". Also consider language, culture, climate, family-raising conditions, NATURAL RESOURCES, ability to survive like our ancestors did etc. For me I chose Canada partly because I am a dual citizen with Canada and partly because of other reasons. I was seriously considering New Zealand though and almost made my application there.
Thanks, Yeah I heard good things about Canada and even Australia. I guess who knows, we live in some interesting times.
My goal is to save enough gold and silver so as to be able to buy a small family farm - grow my own food, have some sheep, chickens, and a cow or two. A big change from the days when I used to work for Merrill Lynch!
Sounds good to me.
Right on Flacon, I'm actually looking to a better life. It seems like what we have now is so great, but lose the stress of debt and working for a stupid job and life is much better. Its a harder way of life, but more rewarding for sure.
Here's my Hero.
Check out Andy, he has been living outside the U.S. for 12 years now, has traveled around the world, the number of westerners he runs into in third world countries is astonishing. He realizes what is coming to the 1st world, and he is long gone!!
Andy makes his money by blogging and writing about his travels.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZySvJCdz6U&playnext=1&videos=LVDsr2D2SmI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17LcgUqq3Rc&playnext=1&videos=kPS1jjQUUv8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ntbCXKNHiQ&playnext=1&videos=SY2ymspFVKI
Thanks! I just subscribed to his channel.
It should only get worse from here. Unless there is a big USG bailout of the individual states, the jobs numbers this Fall/Winter will show the bloodletting that is waiting to be unleashed at the state and local levels.
My research shows that when year over year corporate profits have risen by 3.5% year over year, then 4-5 quarters after that, employment rises.
That means that we will see an uptick in employment in the 2nd quarter of 2010.
If profits deteriorate severely prior to that, it will not be pretty.
Right now nearly 70% of Value Line companies are reporting higher year over year quarterly earnings, rising from lows in the 31% range in July 2009.
On a positive note, cheerleader Christina Roemer is gone....
@ejmoosa
How good are your data? What time period are you covering? Any consideration that this is a balance sheet recession and not a normal cyclical recession?
"Right now nearly 70% of Value Line companies are reporting higher year over year quarterly earnings, rising from lows in the 31% range in July 2009".
I will scream (again) the next time I hear someone using the 2009 SHIT figures to give a positive slant to the figures of 2010!!!!!
Little bailout is already happening.
Four States with highest umemplyment are getting money from Washington to keep municipal jobs and assist medicare deficits.
N-I-C-E !
10 yr going nuts...
Do people think that the government will "make good" on it's promise to repay? Perhaps - but it will be with a greatly diminished dollar.
Take a look at gold today! It's taking off too. So some people are turning to "God's Money" in this crisis. :)
data was revised down , NFP is even worse -220 . welcome QE2
This translation has wider implications: can protectionism in the name of job creation fly?
Yes it can but it's protection against the state. Jobs may return to the US speared by some courageous entrepreneurs refusing to pay state and federal taxes just to compete with the outsourced recipients receiving tax breaks from the same thieves.
If I can set up a factory and not pay paytroll and property taxes, that's enough for me to compete with anyone.
Paytroll taxes, how fitting!
Realizing they cannot create jobs because they provided favorable conditions for them to be offshored and outsourced, aka they're gone and not coming back, coupled with the fact that the millions of "Green Jobs" were merely a campaign slogan in 2008. Congress is still gunning for pre-depressionary levels via Extended Unemployment Benefits. Soon you will be able to take a 360 week hiatus from the labor pool. Just don't spend all those benefit bucks in one place!
I think at this point Geithner and Bernanke are chewing Xanax by the fistful, everything they set out to create has gone to crap! Inflation was their goal to retire their fiat, and theyre getting the opposite. Watch out when madmen get desperate, and at this point Obama on down are VERY desperate indeed! $770 billion mortgage 'forgiveness? Hell theres gonna be a war up in this motherfuker right quick!
Oh yee of little faith... They'll get their inflation before its over. After all, western, civilized countries don't default, they collapse their currencies.
Their planned inflation was supposed to happen about 18 months ago...TIC TOCK TIC TOCK times running out Team Timmah!
Not many recall that the last major growth in jobs under Bush/Clinton came as a result of the housing boom created by printing mortgage money and creating jobs related to the house construction and home furnishing purchases. we borrowed for 30 years out to create current jobs. This opportuity does not exist currently and in fact we are deleveraging from this faux past job creation.
we have massive excess worldwide structural excess that is mispriced in terms of worldwide exchange rates. The only cure is a rearrangement of exchange rates to unwind the imbalances and level the playing field to even out supply and demand.
is this how a jobless recovery looks like? looks pretty good.. no?
Dont worry, Leo's busy over on another ZH article showing a Chinese solar stock.
The only problem is those goddamned idiots who are out there still looking for a job! There aren't any, get it!
Stop looking so we can have lower unemployment.
hahaha :)
The states starting to cut heads -50'. My guess will be an ECB style bailout of the states after tuesday FOMC.
Ok Trichy, 'massive bailout of the states' using worthless fiat, THEN what? They still cant right themselves. Like an ER team standing around a dead guy for a month giving more and more adrenaline hits. When do you finaly just give a time of death and stop with the BS?
That the whole problem they can't stop. this will just be the first of additional QE's, and a light version. Just wait til October and you will see them inject a deadly dose of QE into the dying patient.
Got to declare the patient dead in the ER before the corpse starts stinkin up the place. Theyre spraying the Lysol, but the corpse is becoming overpowering....MORE ADRENALINE, STAT!!
Doctor Frankenstein...paging Doctor Frankenstein...
We actualy might see some volume today....on the sell side. Imagine that. Only time we get any volume is when there is selling. Someone else mentioned the futures ACTUALLY dropped on bad news accordingly...amazing and yes it does remind one of the good ole' days when markets worked.
Don't look now but you're about to see green. USD much weaker, Oil returns to unch... and QE.2 bot on the way......
The Summer of Recovery ... or better yet,
Endless Summer of Recovery ... in Search of the Perfect Job
(or any job, for that matter)
Is this the end of the USD project? Will it end? Will California leave the USD project? or will the other states want to keep it in (all these lazy democrates?)...
Do you remember the debate from about 60 days ago around the euro?