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Discovery That Indian Point Nuke Is Most Exposed To Quake Risk Prompts Reuters To Release An Evacuation Map
According to a recent report from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission the California Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant (built in proximity to the San Andreas fault) which everyone always points to as the biggest earthquake risk in the US, is actually ranked 9th in the US in terms of earthquake risk (we somehow really doubt this). The top one? The same we wrote about yesterday as having had a leaking seal for the past 18 years according to the Union of Concerned Scientists - Indian Point in Buchanan, NY. Of course its proximity to New York City has immediately stirred cries of concern from the world's most banksterous city and demands for a shutdown by Andrew Cuomo. It has also prompted Reuters to release an evacuation map of the surroundings should "something" go wrong with Indian Point, an event which will likely only further instill a sense of soothing calmness and a "tranquility effect" in the New Yorker community.
From Reuters:
New data shows the Indian Point nuclear power plant near New York City was the nation's most vulnerable to an earthquake.
That has stirred concerns about protecting the city's eight million residents in the event of a disaster.
The plant sits about 40 miles (64 kilometers) north of New York City, inside a 50-mile radius that U.S. authorities have recommended be evacuated around the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan.
And here is the map:
As to how New York could be the next Fukushima, here is the original report from MSNBC:
What are the odds that a nuclear emergency like the one at Fukushima Dai-ichi could happen in the central or eastern United States? They'd have to be astronomical, right? As a pro-nuclear commenter on msnbc.com put it this weekend, "There's a power plant just like these in Omaha. If it gets hit by a tsunami...."
It turns out that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has calculated the odds of an earthquake causing catastrophic failure to a nuclear plant here. Each year, at the typical nuclear reactor in the U.S., there's a 1 in 74,176 chance that the core could be damaged by an earthquake, exposing the public to radiation. No tsunami required. That's 10 times more likely than you winning $10,000 by buying a ticket in the Powerball multistate lottery, where the chance is 1 in 723,145.
And it turns out that the nuclear reactor in the United States with the highest risk of core damage from a quake is not the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, with its twin reactors tucked between the California coastline and the San Andreas Fault.
It's not the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station, a four-hour drive down the Pacific coast at San Clemente, surrounded by fault lines on land and under the ocean.
It's not on the Pacific Coast at all. It's on the Hudson River.
One in 10,000
The reactor with the highest risk rating is 24 miles north of New York City, in the village of Buchanan, N.Y., at the Indian Point Energy Center. There, on the east bank of the Hudson, Indian Point nuclear reactor No. 3 has the highest risk of earthquake damage in the country, according to new NRC risk estimates provided to msnbc.com.A ranking of the 104 nuclear reactors is shown at the bottom of this article, listing the NRC estimate of risk of catastrophic failure caused by earthquake.
The chance of a core damage from a quake at Indian Point 3 is estimated at 1 in 10,000 each year. Under NRC guidelines, that's right on the verge of requiring "immediate concern regarding adequate protection" of the public. The two reactors at Indian Point generate up to one-third of the electricity for New York City. The second reactor, Indian Point 2, doesn't rate as risky, with 1 chance in 30,303 each year.
The plant with the second highest risk? It's in Massachusetts. Third? Pennsylvania. Then Tennessee, Pennsylvania again, Florida, Virginia and South Carolina. Only then does California's Diablo Canyon appear on the list, followed by Pennsylvania's Three Mile Island.
The odds take into consideration two main factors: the chance of a serious quake, and the strength of design of the plant.
Advertise | AdChoicesNuclear power plants built in the areas usually thought of as earthquake zones, such as the California coastline, have a surprisingly low risk of damage from those earthquakes. Why? They built anticipating a major quake.
Other plants in the East, South and Midwest, where the design standards may have been lower because the earthquake risk was thought to be minimal, now find themselves at the top of the NRC's danger list.
The chance of serious damage from a quake ranges from Indian Point's 1 chance in 10,000 each year, a relatively higher risk, to the Callaway nuclear plant in Fulton, Mo., where the NRC set the lowest risk, 1 chance in 500,000 each year.
The full list of top 10 riskiest NPPs in the US:
1. Indian Point 3, Buchanan, N.Y.: 1 in 10,000 chance each year. Old estimate: 1 in 17,241. Increase in risk: 72 percent.
2. Pilgrim 1, Plymouth, Mass.: 1 in 14,493. Old estimate: 1 in 125,000. Increase in risk: 763 percent.
3. Limerick 1 and 2, Limerick, Pa.: 1 in 18,868. Old estimate: 1 in 45,455. Increase in risk: 141 percent.
4. Sequoyah 1 and 2, Soddy-Daisy, Tenn.: 1 in 19,608. Old estimate: 1 in 102,041. Increase in risk: 420 percent.
5. Beaver Valley 1, Shippingport, Pa.: 1 in 20,833. Old estimate: 1 in 76,923. Increase in risk: 269 percent.
6. Saint Lucie 1 and 2, Jensen Beach, Fla.: 1 in 21,739. Old estimate: N/A.
7. North Anna 1 and 2, Louisa, Va.: 1 in 22,727. Old estimate: 1 in 31,250. Increase in risk: 38 percent.
8. Oconee 1, 2 and 3, Seneca, S.C.: 1 in 23,256. Old estimate: 1 in 100,000. Increase in risk: 330 percent.
9. Diablo Canyon 1 and 2, Avila Beach, Calif.: 1 in 23,810. Old estimate: N/A.
10. Three Mile Island, Middletown, Pa.: 1 in 25,000. Old estimate: 1 in 45,455. Increase in risk: 82 percent.
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I know that line.
Good old Ronnie Cox.
If the only outcome of such a disaster were 3-titted women, I'd be all for it.
Unfortunately it isn't.
I was hoping for a third nostril, to breath alittle better.
Three boobies come in handy when you have triplets.
Mae, you'd prob b OK, only 25 miles across the Sound from Millstone. - Ned
OT but:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/japan-tsunami
http://au.news.yahoo.com/japan-tsunami/a/-/article/9038854/japan-battles...
It takes far less than an earthquake. Overhead power lines and generators unavailable and that can happen while the reactor is in full operation. Much worse than Fukushima. Compare the somewhat hardened facility in the state of NE (tornado risk) vs IP via google maps to see just how precarious the situation is.
What is the value at risk of IP? You don't need to be very sophisticated to know that the position needs to be unwound.
people were laughing at me buying property upstate instead of on long island, haaa whos laughing now suckers.
i would willingly pay extra taxes to create a federally funded tsunami machine to destroy LI. worst place on earth. burn it.
Check with Halliburton, but they might have passed the keys over to SHAW. - Ned
If the point is kill a few billion, why not just ban pesticides? That alone, would do it.
Wow! It sure was a good thing that them Muslims weren't smart enough to crash them planes into Indian Point even though they flew right over it and instead crashed them into them asbestos-filled, money-losing, antiquated, well-insured white elephants.
1 in 74176 probability! Hahahaha. Anyone who spews crap like this should be banned from public exposure. Lottery probabilities - OK - they are meaningful as the process is very very simple. Once you deal with complex processes - to opine on such low probabilities is actually stupid.
One should rather decide if the consequences of something going wrong are tolerable. If the answer is no - the consequences would be catastrophic - then sadly , the right answer is to not do it - but no - the pseudo-scientists will not be restrained - and justify themselves with nonsense. And people dont know enough statistics to question their nonsense. So millions die - every now and then. Oh well.
Yeah, but it's such a precise number so it must be true.
R2D2 said so
actually, that was C3PO
Ok, then let's narrow it down to a much simpler question.
How high is the probability for a major flood through a rise in Hudson river's level ?
Now multiply this with the probability that the cooling system fails in case of inundation and thirdly multiply it with the probability that no diesel generator lasts longer than 1 week when running 24/7.
If the resulting probability p > 0.001, then I'd either invest in the powerplant's security and thus lower p or switch the plant off and have it decomissioned.
The only problem is.
The state of New York is broke.
It can't afford to decommission Indian Point.
Now imagine all states that are broke not investing into nuclear safety anymore, and cutting all funding for regulatiory authorities, countrywide.
How long will it take until a major accident happens ?
I'd say we are sitting on an armada of time bombs here.
You really don't understand regulatory fee structures, do you?
- Ned
{homework: "Station Blackout" and "Auxiliary Feedwater System" are worthy of your study, before you get to doing any PRA kinda' decisionmaking.}
If there's a 10-meter Tsunami that affects the Hudson River all the way up to Indian Point, Banksterworld has already been wiped off the map.
The 5 boroughs can't handle that sort of stress in the first place. Not much point worrying about the nuke issues after that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEZ0SeZlZpg
This one is for William Banzi and all the ZHer's out there
Lava Is A Burning Thing
And It Makes A Fiery Ring
Bound By Tepco's Desire
Japan Fell Into A Ring Of Fire
CHORUS:
Japan Fell Into A Burning Ring Of Fire
It Went Down, Down, Down
And The Flames Went Higher
And It Burns, Burns, Burns
The Ring Of Fire
The Ring Of Fire
The Taste Of Electricity - it Is Sweet
When it lights up the street
We fell for Tepco lies like a child
Oh,But The Fire Went Wild
CHORUS
Japan Fell Into A Burning Ring Of Fire
It Went Down, Down, Down
And The Flames Went Higher
And It Burns, Burns, Burns
The Ring Of Fire
The Ring Of Fire
And It Burns
OoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooYaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Good thinking Dr. No - the reactor has less than a 100 year design life and the 7.0 is a 100 year event. So we wait for a 100 year event and then build like hell. Now, about the design life of the spent fuel rods .... ( I know you were sarcasm on)
Ok, then let's narrow it down to a much simpler question.
How high is the probability for a major flood through a rise in Hudson river's level ?
Now multiply this with the probability that the cooling system fails in case of inundation and thirdly multiply it with the probability that no diesel generator lasts longer than 1 week when running 24/7.
If the resulting probability p > 0.001, then I'd either invest in the powerplant's security/redundancy and thus lower p or switch the plant off and have it decomissioned.
The only problem is.
The state of New York is broke.
It can't afford to decommission Indian Point.
Now imagine all states that are broke not investing into nuclear safety anymore, and cutting all funding for regulatiory authorities, countrywide.
How long will it take until a major accident happens ?
I'd say we are sitting on an armada of time bombs here.
IP NPP meltdown from a quake? We get an 8.x quake on that fault, there will be little standing in NYC.
One would be certain in the case of a similar event in NY there would be immediate response with a simple generator truck. I guess they don't have those in Japan...
Gold bitchez. For everyone staying around the Indian Point nuclear power plant, watch the local radiation levels here: http://www.aspnic.com/rad/
There once was an old nuke in PA
That ranked #3 by the way
Twas not the isle
Of three mile
That caused quite a stir in its day.
The odds of someone winning two lottery prizes within six or eight weeks is around 1 in 30. This is due to the fact that most of the initial winners spend a couple hundred dollars weekly/monthly on tickets. After winning the first jackpot they will often spend several thousand dollars weekly/monthly and cash in a second good-sized jackpot within two months. After the 2 month period has passed the money spent without winning a second time falls off rapidly to most times a lesser amount than the initial spending to score the first jackpot. Then the bad loans, malinvestment and general stupidity kick in to leave many in worse financial shape than before purchasing the first lottery ticket.
With one nuclear disaster already in the bag, and every governmental retard on the planet going around kicking tires, throwing switches, kinking cooling lines to make the toilets flush more forcefully, how long will it take before human error due to meddling (enforcing new and even more worthless mettlesome requirements) causes a second nuclear plant to malfunction? In other words, what are the odds of this happening again within sixty days of the meltdown at Takahashi? 1 in 6 trillion? 7 to 5? 1 in 18?
Flip an irradiated gold coin to find out.
As nations de-evolve from a collectivist mindset to one of an "every man for himself" type mindset, disasters like what Japan is facing will become more common. You see it everyday in business. No one is in charge, and everyone is doing whatever they can to extract as much personal wealth as humanly possible.
As nations de-evolve from a collectivist mindset to one of an "every man for himself" type mindset, disasters like what Japan is facing will become more common. You see it everyday in business. No one is in charge, and everyone is doing whatever they can to extract as much personal wealth as humanly possible.
Meanwhile, Operation Extension Cord, well, extending...
Outside power source won't be available soon
The government says an outside power source is unlikely to be available at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant for some time, although electricity is urgently needed to cool the reactors.
The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said on Friday that the installation of power cables at the Number One and Number 2 reactors is expected to be completed on Saturday. The operation to add power cables at the Number 3 and Number 4 reactors is likely to end on Sunday.
The agency said, however, that it will take some time to confirm the safety of the damaged facilities.
The government and Tokyo Electric Power Company have been scrambling to restore power at the plant to restart the cooling systems for the reactors.
The earthquake and tsunami on March 11th severed the plant's electricity supply and destroyed its emergency generators.
Friday, March 18, 2011 21:24 +0900 (JST)
And this charming pair of updates...
High radiation detected 30km from nuke plant
Japan's science ministry says relatively high radiation levels have been detected on 2 consecutive days about 30 kilometers northwest of the quake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.
The radiation measured 170 microsieverts per hour on Thursday and 150 microsieverts on Friday.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano says the government will take appropriate measures if this level of contamination continues in the area for a long period. But he says this would be unlikely.
Radiation was measured for 2 hours from 10AM on Friday at 18 spots in areas 30 to 60 kilometers from the plant in Fukushima Prefecture.
The highest reading of 150 microsieverts per hour was detected at around 1:30 PM local time, about 30 kilometers northwest of the plant. The location is within the zone where residents have been instructed to stay indoors.
Readings of 170 microsieverts were recorded at the same location at 2 PM on the previous day, Thursday.
Experts say exposure to this amount of radiation for 6 to 7 hours would result in absorption of the maximum level considered safe for one year.
The ministry also observed radiation levels of 0.5 to 52 microsieverts per hour at other observation points within a 30 to 60 kilometer radius of the plant. It says these levels are all higher than normal, but not an immediate threat to health.
The government has evacuated residents living within a 20 kilometer radius of the plant, and instructed those in a 20 to 30 kilometer radius to stay indoors.
Friday, March 18, 2011 17:38 +0900 (JST)
Expert: No immediate risk but figure is high
Associate Professor Keiichi Nakagawa of the University of Tokyo has suggested that 150 microsieverts per hour would not pose an immediate danger to humans, but the figure is still high.
The specialist in radiology says exposure to 150 microsieverts of radiation every day for up to a month would add up to around 100,000 microsieverts. He says human health could be affected at this level.
However, Nakagawa says people should not worry too much, since the amount of radiation would fall to about 10 percent indoors.
But he adds that the release of radioactive substances from the nuclear plant should be contained as soon as possible, from the viewpoint of preventing unnecessary long-term exposure.
Friday, March 18, 2011 22:02 +0900 (JST)
Thanks for posting this.
Does anyone think that the imminent cases of radiation sickness will be reported on in the MSM? I'm thinking several thousand cases before the end of April. This is only the beginning.
Interesting link on light water and thorium reactors:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/18/3168019.htm
Just a question: if Indian Point is shutdown, will there be enough power to still operate the HFT computers in NYC? I mean, that would be a catastrophic economic loss imperiling the economy of the Hamptons...
IIRC?, Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in California was designed and built without any earthquake requirements in its specifications. A court case went all the way to Wash. Federal Appeals Court and Scalia and Ken Starr, with majority, concurred.