On The Dislocation Between The EUR And PIIGS Insolvency Risk

Tyler Durden's picture

Your rating: None

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:37 | 1258872 oogs66
oogs66's picture

the only thing i know for sure is that Trichet and Bernanke have way too much power

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:44 | 1258894 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Now theres a few people with way too much power, and the rest have no power whatsoever.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:50 | 1258904 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture



all those freedoms and no clue what to do with it... FEMA CAMP FOR YOU FOR YOUR NEXT INDOCTRINATION STUDY!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:10 | 1258964 ivana
ivana's picture

I believe that 2 of them must meet regularly and enjoy touching eachother.
Nobody knows how far they go ... still secret

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 15:49 | 1260265 John Wilmot
John Wilmot's picture

I heard Bernanke submitted an application to replace Hitler as Satan's girlfriend, they said they'll keep it on file. Go long pineapples?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:42 | 1258873 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Why are some people believing EU statements on monetary policy?

They dont want a strong euro.

They dont want a superweak one either. EUR/USD 1.25 to 1.50 will do quite nicely if they can control it.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:44 | 1258896 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yes, you're right. We should only go by the US statements on monetary policy.



Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:41 | 1258877 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

CNBS is actually quite useful to watch.  No, I am not talking about Steve Liesman's genius, but the commercials.

--I may be in my pajamas now...

--Get Magic Jet or Jack or whatever now

--Bill Schaeffer made a financial gain with his invention, but these results are not typical

--Attention parents and grandparents with Gerber life insurance plan for your newborn

Highly polished and professional commercials keeps me glued to CNBS

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:42 | 1258890 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Magic Jack at least 10 years behind the technology, just sign up for free Skype, conference calls, messages, all free as long as you dont mind the CIA monitoring. But thats included with everything now anyway.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:48 | 1258900 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I got this one invention for Wall St it may or may not make me a profit but its a rope design with a noose at 1 end. COuld be useful and have a decent market.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:41 | 1258878 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

I was thinking Greece should leave the Euro, but doesn't that chart say the Euro drops the Greece?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:09 | 1258963 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Those two options are not mutually exclusive :)

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:40 | 1258883 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont see what the problem is, just start printing more fiat imaginary currency! Solves everything.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:44 | 1258888 unununium
unununium's picture

I can't glean much value from these wacky crosses.  I need a EUR:Gold chart.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:46 | 1258902 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture


There you go. Here's the fiat value.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:01 | 1259179 unununium
unununium's picture

Now that is one rotten chart.  Much easier to read than the engineered tea leaves.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:50 | 1258891 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture



that should fix that problem....





Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:47 | 1258897 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

I think what it tells us is the US is in a worse position then Euroland (pretty scary)

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:47 | 1258913 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Exactly, that chart is fatally flawed.

Reprint it with the Euro relative to gold.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:51 | 1258916 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

No, I think we're both pretty much fucked up.


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:54 | 1258926 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

I take Worm's jackhammer.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:47 | 1258898 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Cognitive dissonance.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:48 | 1258901 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

M R Pigs

M R Not

O S M is

L I B, M R Pigs

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:46 | 1258905 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Watching the various worthless currencies and 'bonds' or whatever bob up and down relative to the worthlessness of the others...what a bunch of crap.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:51 | 1258920 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture



Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:57 | 1258941 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Dividend yields on BBVA and STD are 7% and 12%.

That's too tempting for Grandma to ignore when she's getting a paltry 1 basis point on her 90-day T-Bill.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:23 | 1259012 citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

Aren’t grannies too old for STDs? I guess it depends on when u start.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 12:42 | 1259534 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Banco Santander

Its an 8.06 yield now, but granny better have some big hairy balls if she wants to play that game. An extra dose of stupidity wouldnt hurt either.

Not one i want to hold ten years for the dividends.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:03 | 1258944 bobby02
bobby02's picture

Maybe it's not FX mispricing but rather CDS. Counterparty risk, anyone? Who is writting this insurance? Who holds porcine debt?

LIBOR-OIS has been widening for at least 6 months. Coincidence?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:02 | 1258953 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

meanwhile, back at the ranch, the /es is up 6.00 for no reason other than it is not up 12.00

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:31 | 1259051 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

The Euro /  PIGS CDS divergence is pricing in the exiting of Greece, et al, from the Euro. The article is written by a career FX hack inside the French bank. There are thousands of these guys collecting healthy checks writing this thin gruel each day. They all would have been fired in there had been no stimulus to banks. That is the real crime of Fed stimulus.   

Market has to be considering a 2 tier Euro, the Club Med Euro vs the Buba based Euro. Spain becomes the "Buba" of the new Club Med Euro.

Haircuts of up to 50% for bondholders of PIGS debt (and they are lucky to get that).

USD to sterngthen in near term as talk (useless) of massive cuts  in US spending is splayed resplendently across Lame Stream Media monosyllabic talking heads. But they are talking heads with commitment.


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:31 | 1259052 Catullus
Catullus's picture

I think they're coordinating a default or restructuring with a new debt ceiling/QE double down. When bill gross is this short, the risk to the UST market is too great. Some of the PIIGS are perfect sacrificial lambs for this.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:35 | 1259069 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

and lets not forget about the sh*t going on in the middle east:


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:43 | 1259099 hildebrand
hildebrand's picture

"Whereas in the past the two correlated very strongly, since early 2011, the pair has diverged dramatically, leading many to speculate that just like in the case of Japan, the G-7 did another coordinate intervention to push the EUR higher"

You know, Tyler, Greek's share of Eurozone GDP is (just) 2.5%. That might have to do something with the "dramatic diverge"...


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:55 | 1259158 Humberto Eco
Humberto Eco's picture

Is this USD tunneling process?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:02 | 1259185 eurusdog
eurusdog's picture

Average returns closed below 0 for the first time this year, yesteday. Whether it's lack of support from cordinated intervention or people are starting to question the EZ as a whole, cracks are starting to show.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:15 | 1259215 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

Contradictions upon contradictions, upon contradictions......Capitalism is contradictory and these are the consequences of building on top of them.

You think they have gone...but they have just moved on. The crisis is in a 'hidden phase' awaiting the next shock.


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 11:21 | 1259258 ratso
ratso's picture

The Pac Rim countries have an

incentive to keep the Euro high.

Their exports to Euroland depend on their ability

to afford them.

They have supported the Euro in the last crisis by

buying Euro bonds issued by the PIIGS.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 12:17 | 1259420 alexwest
alexwest's picture

kind of stupid..
take germany CDS and eur/$, i guesss there will not be

this asshole from socgen does he know that Greece is v.v. small and unimportant part of Europe.. actually not much of europe.. more like Turkey or countries from N africa/ middle east.. (egypt. Israel, etc)

germany + france+ holland+ denmark+ sweden + finland/etc is core europe.. they're pretty healthy, people are not engaged in stupid speculations like n. americanos

they are pretty frudal, hard working, v. big savings..

thats why despite this shit from spain/itreland/greece euro is so high today..



Tue, 05/10/2011 - 12:31 | 1259501 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Soc Gen can't supervise its own trading desk.  How about this?  Markets discount the future.  Maybe the market is starting to discount a two-tiered Europe/Euro. 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 16:09 | 1260334 John Wilmot
John Wilmot's picture

Anyone want to guess what the name of the degenerate southern euro currency will be? If so, let's you and me split on the domain name and flip it to those wankers in a few months

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!