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Distractions

Submitted by Nemo on 08/17/2009 04:22 -0400

Apologies for my absence but have been running around as of late. First a quick news update:

Shell makes a bid for Arrow Energy: If its not a Chinese SOE its an operating partner. No shocks here, there isn't much left of the coal seam gas space in Queensland except for the likes of Metgasco. I've enjoyed playing this game but sadly the M&A arb freebies are getting harder to find and even the prospects, like Aquila Resources, aren't that cheap these days. This thematic basket I put on at the start of the year has been great but sadly is a victim of its own success and could be a victim of a backlash against Chinese bids in Australia.

Multinationals in China: Excellent piece by Wang Xiangwei on multinationals' foibles in China. Bottom line is this people: if you bribe a cadre's son he ain't going to prison no matter what. Your white a$$ is an entirely different matter. This is all being very prudently hushed up onshore to avoid people going out with baseball bats for the sons and daughters of politburo members past and present, how long China can propagate a kleptocracy like this is anyone's guess but anyone claiming that they see bona fide institutional change in China clearly isn't looking in the same places I am.

Shanghai metals limit down: Looks like the government wasn't joking when they were talking about making sure loans went to the right stuff (ie, not speculation). Its my belief this will not last more than a month at most but nonetheless its nice to be in on the joke. AUD can't be far behind.

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