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Distressed Market Commentary From Alden Global
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http://www.cnbc.com/id/37366067
Two of our current industry themes are financials and media.
That is the 2nd thumbs up to media, the other being the Buyout targets that TD posted a few days ago. How can these guys be so brave? It seems reckless to me. Also, how the hell do you start buying up financials before the regulation (as lame as it is) still has yet to be finalized? And you think ad revenue is bad now? LOL!!! These peeps are in for a rude awakening.
I have no Idea in the world why anyone would buy any financials anywhere right now..Yahoo had bullish hot on bank of Greece for 2 weeks now..Just took it down day before yesterday..
that would be exactly why one might consider buying.
Valuations are still too rich.
About the funniest thing I've read today. Unintentionall funny, maybe, but funny all the same.
Agreed. Graham and Dodd have no place in today's market.
He starts out with the cliche of a rising tide floats all boats. It is a cliche because it is true, of course. Then he finishes with excuses why their picks are really good picks, just late or early, or in the wrong ocean.
HFT dickheads, along with The Beard and Turbo Tim's golden liquidity shower, have obviated the existence of analysts and stock pickers. Like someone said here earlier, 2 and 20 for what? Asset allocation? Sector rotation?
On a side note, S&P 500 down 22.5% over the last 10 years. What are those laminated Ibbotson Chart people going to do for a product now? The old lady at the kitchen table better be blind enough that she won't notice it is upside down.
Errrm,
"He starts out with the cliche of a rising tide floats all boats"
If my memory serves me right there are supposed to be many boats loaded with Toxic assets with gigantic holes in their collective hulls......
......Aah, now I understand.....with the rising of the tide they just vanish ....and...... "Seize to exist?"
LMAO
The most extreme case of contrarian logic I've ever heard. I will consider buying financials 1) after the new regulations are passed and, 2) after banks mark to market ALL their "assets."
+1000
I don't see how an investor can value bank shares in this accounting environment. What are they worth? Balance sheets are even more opaque now than they were in 2007 when they were reporting on a GAAP basis.
But, this does translate to a (somewhat tortured) investment thesis. Since it's impossible to value bank shares due to the lack of clarity on their marks and off-balance sheet exposures, the shares are probably *undervalued* due to this uncertainty discount.
So, we would expect that speculators would be interested in the shares. It's basically a bet that a lot of people feel the way you all do about bank shares. It might be a good bet.
Personally, I'm not a buyer. But I might be soon if the market can keep on falling apart.
Value? Investor? Not sure what those words are supposed to mean. The important thing is mighty mo, and as long as that's on your side, you win.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-26/fasb-issues-proposal-requiri...
This is very unusual from a historical
perspective and in our opinion it represents a significant undervaluation of the shares.
We recognize that it is hard, if not impossible, to put a true value on Citi’s book and
frankly we do not think that even Citi could do so. However, even using a generous band
of assumptions we believe that Citi’s common has significant upside potential from here.
ROTFLMBAO!They report that their April was "very good."
Probably won't be saying the same about their May....
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minus over 9000 internet points
fuck off
Rolling up the welcome mat for this fella. Thanks.
It's probably Johnny Bravo / Master Bates day job.
please put me on your mailing list.
and then take me off.
If it is "hard" or "impossible" to put a value on Citigroup's book, why would you be an equity investor in said company. This is Finance 101, and common stocks are the riskiest place on the balance sheet.
Last year, shaking hands with the government was a great move. Now, the best move is flipping the government the New York state bird. While doing said action with your left hand, buy gold/silver/oil with your right hand.
Is anyone else sick of the welfare-warfare state?
These guys actually do this 'analysis' stuff for a living?
It's not analysis. It's marketing.
Cheers,
Is it possible to junk it?
I hate spam.
Indeed we do, indeed we do.
I bet that someone from that group will be monitoring sentiment here and all the critical commentary will encourage them to buy and they will feel their contrarian approach will be 'vindicated' as sentiment is so negative. But somebody needs to be on the other side of the trade, so go long media and financials boys! I'll see you at Apocalypse DOW.
This is only mildly relevant, but can anyone read the 1st paragraph of this with a straight face? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704717004575268284276354448.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Nope.
haha, me neither.
I am both laughing and scared shitless at the same time, a state that, before now, I believed impossible.
he's a dispenser all right.
I got into a big debate with an analyst at my firm today - I was of the opinion that nothing has really changed with regards to financials in the way of meaningful reform.. he thought there was. One thing he mentioned was that now that GS, etc etc have moved over to bhc's that they were under more strict capital reserve requirements.. but I was under the understanding that while they may indeed have rules about this.. they aren't being enforced.. as such the financials continue to play with the same (if not more) leverage as they were pre-crisis.
can anyone point me to a link saying one way or the other?
I'm still looking but thought someone here might know of a summary of the (lack of) reforms in place.
thx all.
GC
My understanding of it , from a zerohedge article a few months back, was that GS et al have a grace period till about september (from memory) where they can basically remain as a bank without complying with banking capital and operating requirements. Apparently the more stringent banking requirements were a little hard to meet while maintaining their current operating agenda, hence the rules were bent, just a little.
They'll probably just relinquish the banking licence on the final day before the reforms are required, if they havent bombed the whole financial system by then.
And check reggie's boom bust blog for a little insight into what these guys are up to re OTC derivative positions between each other, creating a great big leveraged shit cake carried at their own valuations and ripe and ready for an implosion.
thx Matto
What Alden Global really needs to do is combine the two ideas, and buy media companies which cater exclusively to financial firms....
"Poor monthly performance does not change our outlook as dislocations present opportunities"
and by that they mean opportunities to continue pissing away clients money.
"pissing away clients money"? Oh don't be so droll. Coldn't care less one way or t'other. The fees keep on rollin' no matter what.
Cheers,
It's a well-known gambling technique: when you're in the hole, double your bet.
Hey, it works for the central banks.
is this some sort of a joke tyler? might as well give cramer a guest spot.
WOW UK retail sales just came out... expected +14% actual -18% wow what a miss.
"Thirty percent of retailers said sales volumes rose during the first two weeks of May, while 48% said they fell, for a negative balance of -18%. Economists had forecast a positive reading of 14%. The reading was the lowest balance since March 2009, the CBI said. Retailers are also negative about the outlook for next month, with a balance of -15% indicating they expect another decline in sales volume."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-may-retail-sales-see-surprise-fall-c...
Good morning...
Everything is bullish on May 27 morning. No end of the world. Where apocalipse is? I'm becoming tired of wait...
Ehhh ... we've sold out S.Korea in exchange for China's help restoring stability in Europe with their promise to buy the Euro. If NK overruns SK we will barely bat an eye.