Do Railcar Loadings Indicate An Oil Price Correction Is Imminent?
A 20 year chart comparing oil with railcar loadings may have something to say about either the mispricing of the commodity or provide some insight into Buffett's thinking on his long-term interest in rail. Granted, he started buying rails at or about the market peak so it is unlikely that the Omaha recipient of governmental generosity has this particular correlation in mind, however, it is oddly striking that while in the past the two trendlines have had a very distinct pattern, ever since the pop in the commodity bubble and the collapse of America into a recession the two have converged. On the other hand, as oil prices are driven purely by speculation and reflect very little of fundamental supply/demand metrics, and thus reflect nothing but excess liquidity, this particular convergence may persist for as long as Bernanke deems it relevant.
Nonetheless, one thing that oil bulls should consider is how much oil (among other liquid assets) will Abu Dhabi be forced to sell to fund the bailout of Dubai. In addition, we are somewhat confident Ray Dalio and Bridgewater must be sweating any phone call that originates from the UAE and specifically from ADIA these days.