Do Surging "Prices Paid" Imply A 20% Plunge In S&P 500 Profit Margins?

Tyler Durden's picture

Whereas yesterday Zero Hedge looked at the relationship between the ISM Price Paid index and the broad inflation CPI (coming to the conclusion that 12 months from today the CPI may be increasing by a massive 6%+), today we look at a correlation with the metric that should be even dearer to investor hearts: operating margins. The chart below shows the PMI Price Paid index compared to an inverted scale of of the S&P margin. It appears that margins follow the PPI with a four quarter delay, and while the period between 2003 and 2007 did not see a major contraction in margins, this can be attributed to massive abundance of liquidity available to the common man which allowed companies to pass through costs for more aggressively than before. Alas, and as confirmed by Whirlpool and Electrolux' results today, such an outcome this time around is impossible. One thing is certain: should February's Price Paid index continue to rise, margins will, intuitively, have no choice but to plunge. Which is why we anticipate a dramatic 15-20% drop in margins, an outcome which will have material consequences on S&P 500 EPS forecast.

On this chart below, keep an eye out on the orange line. It is going much higher...

h/t Harrison

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Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

SH'nTF.   Oil is back, PMs making a move.  What about the dollar?

Spalding_Smailes's picture

What move .... the pm have fallen with said dollar. A conundrum ... I heard for months about the dollar = gold to da' moooooooooooon.

Lets see what rasputin thinks ....

 

............. " Even Ras--who has lived, breathed and slept these issues for DECADES is totally blown away by this author's grasp of the subject. 

Furthermore, in this very-lengthy missive, he brings up a couple of points that Ras has been discussing for months now on this board, in the summary, excerpted here: 

"In closing, if all of these gold dealers and other gold bugs really believe hyperinflation is inevitable in the U.S., you need to ask them the following two questions. 

(1) Why are gold dealers spending tens of millions of dollars on ads, PR and endorsements trying to convince you to buy it if it’s going to the moon? Why don’t they just hoard it for themselves? 

(2) If Williams, Schiff or Faber really believe hyperinflation is a certainty, ask them if they are willing to place a large bet with me, you or anyone else. It would be the easiest money I ever made. Of course they don’t need to risk losing money on such a bet. All they need to do is keep the sales pitch up. Doing so will land them money regardless where gold prices head." 

Also, this guy is no "mainstream financial" idiot, either. His own predictions (going back to 2006) were for an economic crash and buggy whips to sky to 1400 fiatscos per ounce!!! 

(Ras Conclusion): Whoever this author is, he has identified all the trends regarding the whip and spoon casinos that Ras has been lamenting for months and months now, before the Mad Monk himself felt impelled to bail out of these speculative-locust-and-charlatan-invaded gambling dens. 

All GHSers/SHSers should put their prejudices and biases aside and read this article from start to finish. It is the best-researched, most-compelling, missive Rasputin has ever read regarding the whip and spoon mania--and who is profiting from it. " ...............................

 

http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-691.html 

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea sure, PM's have 'fallen' up 60% right in step with the dollars yearly decline of almost 2%....spot-on analysis Spalding!

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Gold is down what 7-9 % this year ..... ? 

SheepDog-One's picture

And still up 60% from last year!  :D

And just wait till QE3 murmurs grow louder, gold will flash smash thru $2,000 like nothin.

SheepDog-One's picture

Spalding who is this assclown youve latched on to who assumes gold dealers hold none for themselves? What an out of control brain dead assumption...how do you or that idiot analyst know they dont? And BTW you can write back to that idiot and tell him gold dealers make their money on the premium. I mean, DUH? This guy and yourself I guess also must assume that stock brokerage houses are SIMPLY pulling a scam by selling stocks 1 way out the door, hold none themselves, and dont make most of their money on the comission? Really Spalding, this is retarded, you should delete your post.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Pot calling the ...

 

95% of your post = pom~pom waving. Teach me something about dollar denominated debt or the shadow banks ?

SheepDog-One's picture

No Spalding, 100% of my post was proving that ass hat analyst and your conclusions about PM dealers somehow peddling their worthless wares to unsuspecting dupes was just ridiculous, and proved its no different than stock brokers who make most all their profits from the exchange itself as well, buying or selling matters nothing to them.

ColonelCooper's picture

Way to duck the question, Asshat.  Tiptoeing the high wire over troll lake.

RockyRacoon's picture

Is that like saying all those guys in the trading pits keep that cotton, soybeans, copper, oil, pork bellies and such in their back yards?  What?  In big ole freezers, storage bins and silos?  Yeah, we coin dealers keep all that stuff.  That's just how rich we are.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

All the new gold shops around the city now selling gold, flashing neon, give me your FIAT for my gold ....

 

Don't see ads for other commodities  ? Now why would they take dollars if we are looking at hyperinflation ?

tmosley's picture

You must live on the moon, because I see nothing but "We buy gold" signs everywhere.

Sudden Debt's picture

RockyRacoon, what does a coindealer make a year if you don't mind telling?

RockyRacoon's picture

That would be as varied as any other type of business.   There are big dealers who have large staff and do monthly numismatic auctions, so they are not in the category of bullion dealers only.  Some are bourse dealers who do a lot of business with walk-ins, and they ain't telling.  I do a little of both on Internet sales venues but my primary business is philately.  I do 10 times the dollar volume in stamp sales over coin sales because the margins are quite a bit larger.   A lazy dealer like me can do 250K a year easy and have a 25 to 40% margin.   Coins only can probably net you a 10 to 20% margin (if you are an honest dealer).

schoolsout's picture

1) Dealers don't make money by investing in gold, they make money from spreads/premiums

 

for Christ's sake...

Didn't even read the rest.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Ya but why not keep it if its going to 5,000.00 ??? Who cares about premiums ... Why all the ad's pumping it .... ?

 

Don't read it - Lol'...... Another tip, gold below 1,300 within 2 weeks. Then maybe you double back and finish reading.

Quinvarius's picture

Dealers don't make or lose money on gold price moves.  That IS the answer to your question.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

I wonder if they sell the shortage thingy so they keep sales up ? Seems the USA mint has produced tons of coins over the last 3 years,many more than the previous years..... but, but, but what about the shortage ... ?

Quinvarius's picture

You wonder if they intentionally have no product so they can sell more product?

RockyRacoon's picture

You're a fucking moron commenting on a field of endeavor about which you obviously know nothing.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

With all your insight why not give ZH heads up on crash ... ?

 

Silver Wheaton was down 25% shit, traders need help before said crash !

tmosley's picture

I, and many others, proclaimed loudly that everyone should stay right the fuck away from any and all forms of paper gold and silver.  What the fuck do you think SLW is?

Get the fuck out.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Wait now T ...

I went back into the older post after gold hit 1,400 .... Spitzer had a list of 10 miners , do chen bearing ect ..... I'll post later it was filled with " miner " tips... !!!!!

tmosley's picture

The strawman rapist strikes again!

Spalding_Smailes's picture

.............. " I, and many others, proclaimed loudly that everyone should stay right the fuck away from any and all forms of paper gold and silver.  What the fuck do you think SLW is? Get the fuck out. " ............................


 

What ---- Lol' ... And everyone can pick up gold at 1,400.00 ..... LOL' Nope they trade the paper, well over 50%, look at the paper market ( miners,etf's,futures )

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/surge-gld-december-145-call-volume

.... " Surge In GLD December $145 Call Volume "............ Spritzer, Mr. Lennon Hendrix, DoChenRollingBearing, SilverKing, Spartan 117, Shameful, ect .. So many pimp's now silent .... Pin drop again.

 

Many mining pimp's on ZH. Lots of cash lost .... Lol'

tmosley's picture

You're a fucking moron.  Gold is down a few percent, and you think everyone who owns it is losing money?

GET THE FUCK OUT.  You are not smart enough to post here.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Nice sidestep. I thought most didn't roll sell'n/buy'n paper ( but the old ZH link shows many vet's doing just that, paper whores ), you said but,but,but ....

Also you know most can't buy gold at 1,400 another bitch slap for Lil T'. Shit boy ... I taught you about dollar denominated debt and ben's pimp strut ' swap my dollars for your e.u. bux and 10% of your gold... Lol' Ben = Play'a ....

Put down the pom~pom's and read something, please. I posted ton's of info, train traffic, china ect .... 

 

Spalding.

 

P.S. ~ Incase you did not read my question, why is gold rolling over in tons of global currencies..... ????

 


http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$GOLD:FXE,$GOLD:FXY,$GOLD:FXC,$GOLD:FXS,$GOLD:FXA,$GOLD:FXM,$GOLD:FXB,$GOLD:FXF|D 

 

RockyRacoon's picture

I wrote no place that I have a crystal ball.  My comment was directed solely at your inadequate understanding of how a retail business is run.  Period.

SheepDog-One's picture

Now Spalding like Robo and the others must bring up PAPER PM's which are a joke, to make your point? Thats very weak, and forever around here paper silver and gold has always been pointed out as a fraud. PHYSICAL delivery is your best hedge against the fiat printing lunatics. PM's up 60% over 12 months, dollar floundering around 1%, purchasing power of fiat dollar WAY down.

SheepDog-One's picture

Spalding just apply this idiot researcher and by extension your own apparent belief about PM dealers to stock brokers...do brokerage houses own stock protfolios? Do they ONLY SELL stocks? Where do THEY make most of their money, from the premium? Well yea of course, anyone with any basic understanding of how a broker works understand they both buy AND sell, they do have portfolios, and matters LITTLE if they buy or sell because their profit is in the transaction fee! DERP!

Spalding this is just a terrible thread youve started, Id highly consider removing it.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Maybe you should read the entire piece then get back with me .... most your post are waving pom~pom's with fluff nothing more .... And now your calling for removing it, lol' dog, lol''''''''

SheepDog-One's picture

Spalding now youre just hysterical...Ive never even said I own any gold! But this morons ridiculous paranoid assertions that PM dealers are simply shady scam artists selling their worthless wares is just LAUGHABLE when you look at where people ARE going in droves! Into PM's! And just wait untill the QE3 calls get louder and PM's double from here quickly...nevermind your original assertion that PM's are dead having a 60% 12 month rise while the dollar is stuck in the mud at 0. You look ridiculous Spalding.

SDRII's picture

Are you retarded? Running a spread business means transacting to capture the spread (of course this excludes the chosen who gets thier "capital" for free. Ask yourself, in a low margin volume business, where would the "capital" come from to horde that gold as you suggest?

Idiotic comment but telling

Spalding_Smailes's picture

I've been calling for a gold bust for 4 months ( housing bubble quotes ect .... ) and BOOM 9% so far ..., with all the stock picks .... x,zeus,rimm,nvda,xom,jobs, ect ........

 

Babe Ruth like .... What u got bitch ?

 

* crickets * --- chirp, chirp, chirp .... move along.

SheepDog-One's picture

Oh your stocks are up Spalding? Gee, thats terrific....nevermind what you trade them in for, dollar purchasing power, is sliding down daily. Que crickets chirping *chirp*! *Chirp chirp!*

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Look at a ten year dollar chart ....

 

Now look at the chart after Lehman blew up, now look at the dollar today, what drop ???

SheepDog-One's picture

OH I see what the problem is Spalding, youre looking at currency charts comparing the worthless fiat dollar to other worthless fiat currencies. Amateur mistake. Now to get the correct view, price your stock rise in gold. Not a pretty picture.

tmosley's picture

And yet you can only buy half of what you could with it.

The USDX is like an altimeter that uses other planes to tell you what your altitude is.  Sure, it looks like we're all level and everything is fine, except all the planes have run out of fuel and are nose-diving into the ocean.  Prices for EVERYTHING are going up.

Your head is broken, boy.  You'd best unfuck yourself before you have to pay the piper.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Naw' doing great this year .... And starting a new business.

 

I wonder why Turd opened up a new business before the looming hyperinflation.. ?

SheepDog-One's picture

Spalding are you and Harry teaming up in his wildly expanding urinal cake to chain motel business?

Spalding_Smailes's picture

No Lol ... '

 

20ft. straight truck. Deliveries around Chicago tri-state area... 

tmosley's picture

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

Holy shit, you're a moron.

Might as well try your hand at flipping houses in Detroit.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Oh' Ta fool .....

 

Already have accounts lined up .... Face it buddy, things are picking up. Also why is gold down in every currency you side-stepped that one ....

tmosley's picture

Sure, you've got two people interested in your "service", and you say they are "lining up".  What a moron. 

Only morons claim that bull markets only move in straight lines.

Give it up, shit for brains.  You aren't smart enough to post here.  This is made clear by the fact that you are opening up a new business in an area with confiscory taxation.  Might as well join a fucking chain gang.

Get out, idiot.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

How doz gold taxes boy ... Your the know troll boy'...

Everyone who has followed Spalding on ZH knows hes hitting 600 over the last 4 months .... Lol'

 

Why no warning on the big drop in silver/gold thats right you just wave pom~pom's on ZH post after post about gold. All the same shit.

 

But why oh why lil' T is gold falling in most global currencies, come on boy tell all your ZH fan's what'z up with dat' ...

snowball777's picture

We sincerely hope it's not a diesel...so you can enjoy having your margins crushed along with the corporations who's TP you're holding.

d00daa's picture

Look at a ten year GOLD chart.....

 

WHAT DROP????

 

You can't possibly believe your own bullshit.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

10 year dollar chart. 

 

Did you get your picks ready .... ?

SheepDog-One's picture

Every post Spalding concludes with 'crickets chirping' or 'pin drop' only to get immediately face pwnd...hillarious.