Does The "Ring Of Fire" Guarantee At Least One Magnitude 8 Aftershock, And Ten Of Magnitude 7 Or Higher?

Tyler Durden's picture

For Japan, it's nowhere near over, at least if the Pasadena Jet Propulsion Laboratory (creator of such brainiac things as the Mars rovers) is correct. While Japan has experienced numerous magnitude 5 and 6 aftershocks (405 in total to be precise), the big ones are still to come: "Japan's largest quake on record, which hurled a 7-meter (23-foot) wave
landward after one plate slid beneath another off the coast of Sendai,
had an 8.9 magnitude. The aftershocks will likely include at least one
measuring 8 and 10 of magnitude 7, JPL geophysicist Andrea Donnellan
All are many times larger than the 6.3-level New Zealand quake in
February that leveled the Christchurch business district and killed 160." Should we get more 8+ earthquakes, the likelihood of further tsunamis unfortunately jumps exponentially. And while scientists have long been expecting "the Big One" to hit Los Angeles so far without success, unfortunately carrying over that logic to Japan is more than naive.

More from BusinessWeek on predicting earthquakes:

Pressure levels changed on the undersea plates extending 500 kilometers to the east and west of the epicenter, likely provoking aftershocks “for a long time,” said Eric Fielding, a principal scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The Pasadena, California, research group is using data from Japan to help scientists forecast follow-on shifts in crustal plates.

“The segments south and north of the Sendai rupture zone will have large increased stresses,” Donnellan, a principle investigator who models probable shifts in the Earth's crust, said in written answers to Bloomberg. “While a few large earthquakes will occur soon after the last one, most will occur at much longer times, typically years, after the last one.”

Predicting earthquakes with precision eludes scientists, who until recently lacked data to improve forecasts. The disaster will aid research into how the mosaic of plates around the world can shift and trigger shocks, building on measurements from Indonesia in 2004 and Chile in 2010 that gave geophysicists insight into how the biggest tremors change Earth's geology.

Japan, the world's third-largest economy, lies on the so- called Ring of Fire, an arc of volcanoes and fault lines surrounding the Pacific Basin including Sumatra, site of the Indonesian quake.

“Before 2004, most geophysicists taught that only limited parts of the Ring of Fire could be capable of generating really giant earthquakes,” Antonio Piersanti, head researcher of the Rome-based Italian Institute of Geology and Vulcanology, said in an e-mailed statement. “After the Sumatra event and especially after this last event maybe we should seriously consider the possibility that any part of the Ring of Fire could generate a 9-plus earthquake,” Piersanti said.

Combined that with another disclosure from the BBC blog and one can see why outbound flights from Tokyo may soon become a very high margin product:

UK nuclear expert John Large tells the
BBC that the wind direction off the east coast of Japan is moving round
to the south, which could take any radioactive plume from the Fukushima
plant over the Tokyo region.

Should Reactor 2 explode, that will likely be the tipping point for a major demographic shift as Tokyo citizens say enough is enough.

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americanspirit's picture

Looks like apartment rental prices in Hawaii are going to climb.

scythian empire's picture

Did anyone hear where Godzilla is yet?

Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

""Did anyone hear where Godzilla is yet?"'

.....Yes, more earthquakes coming....Extreme event coming March 20th...Saturn, Jupiter are the causes....

chumbawamba's picture

No one can predict the future.

Get a hold of yourself.  You're being embarrassing.

I am Chumbawamba.

Fish Gone Bad's picture

Nice to have you back Chumbawamba.

caconhma's picture

This is the fkig  end of the nuclear power-generating industry.


Chinese are huge beneficiaries of this catastrophe.

flacon's picture

How are we going to heat our homes? Oh, yeah, Ben Bernanke has it figured out:

('cept this time we will be burning binary bits and bytes)

Pegasus Muse's picture

Chile, NZ, then Japan.  Every quadrant in the Ring of Fire hit with a devastating  earthquake except one.  If you live on the west coast of North America you ought to be  worried.  Nature loves symmetry.     


'Super moon' on the horizon for Saturday

If the moon looks extra big, bright and almost close enough to touch March 19, it's not just your imagination.

That's the day a "super moon," the fullest of the year, is set to appear in the sky. This year's will be the closest to Earth in 18 years, astronomers say.

Some believe a super moon can result in severe storms or earthquakes.,0,4460991.story


dark pools of soros's picture

remember what happened 18 years ago????  yes bad things..!5556281



Immanuel Cunt's picture

"The aftershocks will likely include at least one measuring 8 and 10 of magnitude 7, JPL geophysicist Andrea Donnellan said."

There's nothing unusual or supernatural in predicting the future. 

chumbawamba's picture

Anyone can generalize.  No one can predict the future.

Notwithstanding, the point is this is not the time to get hysterical.  That'll just get you killed.

I am Chumbawamba.

Flakmeister's picture

  True.... a little anecdote, was thinking of taking advantage on deals for Tokyo trip about 3 weeks ago. It was a great deal, hotel + airfare for 2 for $2200... Glad I decided not to! Was also toying with a trip to Vancouver Island this summer, I think I will hold off for a bit...

global's picture

I predict the moon will orbit the earth tomorrow.  Yes, the future can be predicted...just not every event.

Anyone can generalize, including you.

SwapThis's picture

I had hoped you were still lerking in shadows chumba ;-)

mathdock's picture

That surerlooked like some pretty confusing word choices.  I THINK the guy meant north-to-south:  Cold front passage.

covert's picture

what they really need is to stabilize their land or make new, artificial land and stay awayfrom the nuke.


dearth vader's picture

You mean, kind of fiat land?

'Let there be land!'

southerncomfort's picture

well USA has a nice inventory of vacant housing -- priced to sell!  Welcome home Japan!

OldPhart's picture

As one that lives within a few miles of the San Andreas and crosses it frequently on the I-15 through the Cajon Pass, having the shift of Japan by eight feet closer to my backyard makes me wonder when the stress will pop.

If that side of the plate moved that much, surely there had to be at least a couple inches movement on the westward side.

I"m in the High Desert, North of the San Bernardino mountains.  I expect a similar magnitude earthquake here would pretty much turn the sand over...with everything buried underneath.

And our "craftsman" built houses would be kindling in the first minute.  I'm astonished at the housing that withstood that earthquake in Japan (only to be wiped out by the tsunami).  Nothing like a Japanese product for durability.

krugergate's picture

National Geographic did a new show last night talking about a super quake hitting the USA - P NW or New Madrid - both are due plus new Madrid last blew in 1811- super moon a coming plus a solstice....on 3-20 :) silver bitchez

SilverRhino's picture

Worse, that sucker will deadline FedEx and UPS.  Goodbye JiT logistics.   

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This morning some talking head on CNBC was discussing just in time delivery issues in Japan. He was saying that if the problems get worse in Japan it will start affecting companies in countries around the world that depend upon Japan for many JiT components. Even though there is plenty of competition out there and even some slack in manufacturing it can't all be switched over via a phone call in two days.

So much for the global village.

chumbawamba's picture

Uncouth, for sure, but on the flipside that means more business for those capable of picking up the slack.

I am Chumbawamba.

PhD's picture

If they get the time. Exponential growth in money supply mixed with collapse in the supply of goods may create massive inflation. Any increase in intrest rate now is going to kill the demand side of the economy. Noone is going to be dumb enough to risk capital investments in this climate.


except the covernment ofcourse........

SilverRhino's picture

Worse, that sucker will deadline FedEx and UPS.  Goodbye JiT logistics.   

mathdock's picture

k-gate, it's an equinox, not a solstice, but neither matter as much as lunar distance from earth in terms of tidal forces.  Is that what you meant by Super Moon?  I have to look it up now....yep, 221,712 miles on March 20, about 7.6% closer than average.(courtesy Wolfram Alpha)

SystemsGuy's picture

Pacific Northwest makes more sense - friend of mine on the island of Hawaii reported a quake hours after the the Japan quake, which ironically may have helped mitigate the tsunami's impact there.

Last major PWN quake,  at magnitude 7.1, was in 2001, near where I lived at the time in Olympia. The faultline slippage likely sent energy impulses across the planet, very likely destabilizing the NA plate's junctions along the Juan de Fuca plate. It wouldn't be at all surprising for a major quake to hit JdF or along the Cascadia boundaries. And of course, Seattle itself is basically built on top of a mud flat.


Roger Knights's picture

"Seattle itself is basically built on top of a mud flat."

Not all of it, just parts, mostly near the water. There are lots of hilly spots that aren't liable to liquifaction effects. The local newspaper printed a map the last time there was a quake showing the relative riskiness of all parts of the city--most of it wasn't particularly risky.

Fred Hayek's picture

Of course, Mount Rainier is a volcano, so the possibilities for fun go on and on!

Let them all fail's picture

Live in PNW and trust me, I've been hearing that for the last 15 years I've lived here, only difference is that now they have an excuse to put that show back on since they know it will scare people more than usual

Rainman's picture

true dat. In SoCal we get a mini earthquake nearly every day. My Grandma died at 93 some years ago...sure to the end the Big One would hit Pasadena any minute. Nobody knows shit.

hbjork1's picture

The risk numbers posted for the US have indicated that a section of San Andreas fault is the probability champ.  The New Madrid is due also but population is not as concentrated in the danger zone, 

IMO, the Japanese will deal with this better than the Russians.  Remediation of this kind of accident will require patience, technical skill and sacrifice.  Since they are more or less a large extended single tribe, the will to sacrifice will be a factor.

Anyone here know personally a Japanise native?  I have known two.  Both were organized, disciplined and focused on the work that needs to be done.  They don't stop.   One lady was the realtor that handled the sale of our big house and helped location of the Condo we now live in closing two months before she died of cancer that she had said not a word about.

Don't underestimate them.   

Flakmeister's picture

Yes, I have worked with many Japanese...Bloody annoying at times, but serious can-do people.

disabledvet's picture

their blatant spiritualism crushes me.  which probably disturbs you.  having said that "there are non-recoverable realities."  a "sucks to be you" understanding of things perhaps which "the sacrificing side of the USA has immediately responded to."  that says to me "this be the 2% of the world economy that impacts the other 90%"--but we shall see.  the obvious "mere character" of these people has been duly observed by the world.  since we are talking God however "no good deed goes unpunished."  and isn't that what we really see?

LawsofPhysics's picture

Potassium Iodide bitches!

gaoptimize's picture

Got my order into Swanson on Saturday morning, before it went back-order ;)  Wife didn't believe me that it would, by Sunday evening, be out of stock.  Won $10 on the bet, but wanted her to bet $20 (the house limit).  Collecting this evening, hopefully favors in lieu of cash ;) .

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Back rub or is she finally letting you out of the dog house? :>)

trav7777's picture

that should be worth 5 or 10 blowjobs given your wife, eh?

FreeMoney Bernie's picture

good by yellow brick road

misterc's picture

I just bought a lot of canned tuna & herring. Best before 2014 (at least).

If they dump three nuclear cores into the ocean, or even just their radiation goes into the ocean, I wouldn't eat seafood anymore.

German TV just started to discuss about tuna and radiation.

SilverRhino's picture

328 MILLION cubic miles .... that's the ocean.   That's a LOT of radiation shielding when you consider that uranium, cesium and plutonium are going to SINK. 

Bear that in mind.