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Does The "Ring Of Fire" Guarantee At Least One Magnitude 8 Aftershock, And Ten Of Magnitude 7 Or Higher?

Tyler Durden's picture


For Japan, it's nowhere near over, at least if the Pasadena Jet Propulsion Laboratory (creator of such brainiac things as the Mars rovers) is correct. While Japan has experienced numerous magnitude 5 and 6 aftershocks (405 in total to be precise), the big ones are still to come: "Japan's largest quake on record, which hurled a 7-meter (23-foot) wave
landward after one plate slid beneath another off the coast of Sendai,
had an 8.9 magnitude. The aftershocks will likely include at least one
measuring 8 and 10 of magnitude 7, JPL geophysicist Andrea Donnellan
All are many times larger than the 6.3-level New Zealand quake in
February that leveled the Christchurch business district and killed 160." Should we get more 8+ earthquakes, the likelihood of further tsunamis unfortunately jumps exponentially. And while scientists have long been expecting "the Big One" to hit Los Angeles so far without success, unfortunately carrying over that logic to Japan is more than naive.

More from BusinessWeek on predicting earthquakes:

Pressure levels changed on the undersea plates extending 500 kilometers to the east and west of the epicenter, likely provoking aftershocks “for a long time,” said Eric Fielding, a principal scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The Pasadena, California, research group is using data from Japan to help scientists forecast follow-on shifts in crustal plates.

“The segments south and north of the Sendai rupture zone will have large increased stresses,” Donnellan, a principle investigator who models probable shifts in the Earth's crust, said in written answers to Bloomberg. “While a few large earthquakes will occur soon after the last one, most will occur at much longer times, typically years, after the last one.”

Predicting earthquakes with precision eludes scientists, who until recently lacked data to improve forecasts. The disaster will aid research into how the mosaic of plates around the world can shift and trigger shocks, building on measurements from Indonesia in 2004 and Chile in 2010 that gave geophysicists insight into how the biggest tremors change Earth's geology.

Japan, the world's third-largest economy, lies on the so- called Ring of Fire, an arc of volcanoes and fault lines surrounding the Pacific Basin including Sumatra, site of the Indonesian quake.

“Before 2004, most geophysicists taught that only limited parts of the Ring of Fire could be capable of generating really giant earthquakes,” Antonio Piersanti, head researcher of the Rome-based Italian Institute of Geology and Vulcanology, said in an e-mailed statement. “After the Sumatra event and especially after this last event maybe we should seriously consider the possibility that any part of the Ring of Fire could generate a 9-plus earthquake,” Piersanti said.

Combined that with another disclosure from the BBC blog and one can see why outbound flights from Tokyo may soon become a very high margin product:

UK nuclear expert John Large tells the
BBC that the wind direction off the east coast of Japan is moving round
to the south, which could take any radioactive plume from the Fukushima
plant over the Tokyo region.

Should Reactor 2 explode, that will likely be the tipping point for a major demographic shift as Tokyo citizens say enough is enough.


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Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:41 | 1051605 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Looks like apartment rental prices in Hawaii are going to climb.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:49 | 1051637 scythian empire
scythian empire's picture

Did anyone hear where Godzilla is yet?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:53 | 1051659 Arch Duke Ferdinand
Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

""Did anyone hear where Godzilla is yet?"'

.....Yes, more earthquakes coming....Extreme event coming March 20th...Saturn, Jupiter are the causes....

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:03 | 1051704 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

No one can predict the future.

Get a hold of yourself.  You're being embarrassing.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:15 | 1051757 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Nice to have you back Chumbawamba.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:00 | 1052008 caconhma
caconhma's picture

This is the fkig  end of the nuclear power-generating industry.


Chinese are huge beneficiaries of this catastrophe.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:23 | 1052117 flacon
flacon's picture

How are we going to heat our homes? Oh, yeah, Ben Bernanke has it figured out:

('cept this time we will be burning binary bits and bytes)

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:03 | 1052218 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Chile, NZ, then Japan.  Every quadrant in the Ring of Fire hit with a devastating  earthquake except one.  If you live on the west coast of North America you ought to be  worried.  Nature loves symmetry.     


'Super moon' on the horizon for Saturday

If the moon looks extra big, bright and almost close enough to touch March 19, it's not just your imagination.

That's the day a "super moon," the fullest of the year, is set to appear in the sky. This year's will be the closest to Earth in 18 years, astronomers say.

Some believe a super moon can result in severe storms or earthquakes.,0,4460991.story


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 19:46 | 1052654 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

remember what happened 18 years ago????  yes bad things..!5556281



Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:49 | 1051940 Immanuel Cunt
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"The aftershocks will likely include at least one measuring 8 and 10 of magnitude 7, JPL geophysicist Andrea Donnellan said."

There's nothing unusual or supernatural in predicting the future. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:51 | 1051957 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Anyone can generalize.  No one can predict the future.

Notwithstanding, the point is this is not the time to get hysterical.  That'll just get you killed.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:58 | 1051989 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  True.... a little anecdote, was thinking of taking advantage on deals for Tokyo trip about 3 weeks ago. It was a great deal, hotel + airfare for 2 for $2200... Glad I decided not to! Was also toying with a trip to Vancouver Island this summer, I think I will hold off for a bit...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 05:21 | 1054677 global
global's picture

I predict the moon will orbit the earth tomorrow.  Yes, the future can be predicted...just not every event.

Anyone can generalize, including you.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:32 | 1052401 SwapThis
SwapThis's picture

I had hoped you were still lerking in shadows chumba ;-)

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 19:54 | 1052678 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I been around ;)

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:59 | 1051698 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

33 Liberty Street.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:11 | 1051740 breezer1
breezer1's picture

isn't that downwind?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:22 | 1051785 mathdock
mathdock's picture

That surerlooked like some pretty confusing word choices.  I THINK the guy meant north-to-south:  Cold front passage.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:21 | 1051782 covert
covert's picture

what they really need is to stabilize their land or make new, artificial land and stay awayfrom the nuke.


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:50 | 1051953 dearth vader
dearth vader's picture

You mean, kind of fiat land?

'Let there be land!'

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 21:43 | 1053122 southerncomfort
southerncomfort's picture

well USA has a nice inventory of vacant housing -- priced to sell!  Welcome home Japan!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 23:45 | 1053780 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

As one that lives within a few miles of the San Andreas and crosses it frequently on the I-15 through the Cajon Pass, having the shift of Japan by eight feet closer to my backyard makes me wonder when the stress will pop.

If that side of the plate moved that much, surely there had to be at least a couple inches movement on the westward side.

I"m in the High Desert, North of the San Bernardino mountains.  I expect a similar magnitude earthquake here would pretty much turn the sand over...with everything buried underneath.

And our "craftsman" built houses would be kindling in the first minute.  I'm astonished at the housing that withstood that earthquake in Japan (only to be wiped out by the tsunami).  Nothing like a Japanese product for durability.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:42 | 1051607 krugergate
krugergate's picture

National Geographic did a new show last night talking about a super quake hitting the USA - P NW or New Madrid - both are due plus new Madrid last blew in 1811- super moon a coming plus a solstice....on 3-20 :) silver bitchez

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:50 | 1051641 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Worse, that sucker will deadline FedEx and UPS.  Goodbye JiT logistics.   

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:54 | 1051666 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This morning some talking head on CNBC was discussing just in time delivery issues in Japan. He was saying that if the problems get worse in Japan it will start affecting companies in countries around the world that depend upon Japan for many JiT components. Even though there is plenty of competition out there and even some slack in manufacturing it can't all be switched over via a phone call in two days.

So much for the global village.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:03 | 1051709 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Uncouth, for sure, but on the flipside that means more business for those capable of picking up the slack.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:15 | 1051754 PhD
PhD's picture

If they get the time. Exponential growth in money supply mixed with collapse in the supply of goods may create massive inflation. Any increase in intrest rate now is going to kill the demand side of the economy. Noone is going to be dumb enough to risk capital investments in this climate.


except the covernment ofcourse........

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:37 | 1051881 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:51 | 1051646 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Worse, that sucker will deadline FedEx and UPS.  Goodbye JiT logistics.   

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:32 | 1051797 mathdock
mathdock's picture

k-gate, it's an equinox, not a solstice, but neither matter as much as lunar distance from earth in terms of tidal forces.  Is that what you meant by Super Moon?  I have to look it up now....yep, 221,712 miles on March 20, about 7.6% closer than average.(courtesy Wolfram Alpha)

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:53 | 1051974 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

This was posted on March 8, 2011

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:37 | 1051876 SystemsGuy
SystemsGuy's picture

Pacific Northwest makes more sense - friend of mine on the island of Hawaii reported a quake hours after the the Japan quake, which ironically may have helped mitigate the tsunami's impact there.

Last major PWN quake,  at magnitude 7.1, was in 2001, near where I lived at the time in Olympia. The faultline slippage likely sent energy impulses across the planet, very likely destabilizing the NA plate's junctions along the Juan de Fuca plate. It wouldn't be at all surprising for a major quake to hit JdF or along the Cascadia boundaries. And of course, Seattle itself is basically built on top of a mud flat.


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:58 | 1051987 Roger Knights
Roger Knights's picture

"Seattle itself is basically built on top of a mud flat."

Not all of it, just parts, mostly near the water. There are lots of hilly spots that aren't liable to liquifaction effects. The local newspaper printed a map the last time there was a quake showing the relative riskiness of all parts of the city--most of it wasn't particularly risky.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:03 | 1052025 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Of course, Mount Rainier is a volcano, so the possibilities for fun go on and on!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:56 | 1051981 Let them all fail
Let them all fail's picture

Live in PNW and trust me, I've been hearing that for the last 15 years I've lived here, only difference is that now they have an excuse to put that show back on since they know it will scare people more than usual

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:55 | 1052254 Rainman
Rainman's picture

true dat. In SoCal we get a mini earthquake nearly every day. My Grandma died at 93 some years ago...sure to the end the Big One would hit Pasadena any minute. Nobody knows shit.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:05 | 1052029 hbjork1
hbjork1's picture

The risk numbers posted for the US have indicated that a section of San Andreas fault is the probability champ.  The New Madrid is due also but population is not as concentrated in the danger zone, 

IMO, the Japanese will deal with this better than the Russians.  Remediation of this kind of accident will require patience, technical skill and sacrifice.  Since they are more or less a large extended single tribe, the will to sacrifice will be a factor.

Anyone here know personally a Japanise native?  I have known two.  Both were organized, disciplined and focused on the work that needs to be done.  They don't stop.   One lady was the realtor that handled the sale of our big house and helped location of the Condo we now live in closing two months before she died of cancer that she had said not a word about.

Don't underestimate them.   

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:06 | 1052054 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yes, I have worked with many Japanese...Bloody annoying at times, but serious can-do people.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:50 | 1052225 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

their blatant spiritualism crushes me.  which probably disturbs you.  having said that "there are non-recoverable realities."  a "sucks to be you" understanding of things perhaps which "the sacrificing side of the USA has immediately responded to."  that says to me "this be the 2% of the world economy that impacts the other 90%"--but we shall see.  the obvious "mere character" of these people has been duly observed by the world.  since we are talking God however "no good deed goes unpunished."  and isn't that what we really see?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:41 | 1051609 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Potassium Iodide bitches!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:49 | 1051643 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Got my order into Swanson on Saturday morning, before it went back-order ;)  Wife didn't believe me that it would, by Sunday evening, be out of stock.  Won $10 on the bet, but wanted her to bet $20 (the house limit).  Collecting this evening, hopefully favors in lieu of cash ;) .

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:55 | 1051674 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Back rub or is she finally letting you out of the dog house? :>)

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:57 | 1051676 trav7777
trav7777's picture

that should be worth 5 or 10 blowjobs given your wife, eh?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:38 | 1051894 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

not nice.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:59 | 1052001 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:06 | 1052056 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you don't know the POWER of the dark side

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:42 | 1051610 FreeMoney Bernie
FreeMoney Bernie's picture

good by yellow brick road

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:44 | 1051613 misterc
misterc's picture

I just bought a lot of canned tuna & herring. Best before 2014 (at least).

If they dump three nuclear cores into the ocean, or even just their radiation goes into the ocean, I wouldn't eat seafood anymore.

German TV just started to discuss about tuna and radiation.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:57 | 1051675 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

328 MILLION cubic miles .... that's the ocean.   That's a LOT of radiation shielding when you consider that uranium, cesium and plutonium are going to SINK. 

Bear that in mind.


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:05 | 1051719 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Exactly.  The total radiation released from Chernobyl was about 1/1000th that released from the nuclear testing conducted in the ocean in the 50's.

Iodine is the only thing any non-Japanese person really needs to worry about.  Everything else is either too light or too heavy, and will head for the upper atmosphere or the bottom of the ocean never to be seen again.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:30 | 1054086 Double.Eagle.Gold
Double.Eagle.Gold's picture

Checked your link, thanks for providing this.

On closer inspection, the item has a warning against your suggested use: NOT for anti-radiation use!

Any comments on that?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:28 | 1051808 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

The pic of the girl is incredible. Mad Max, The Road, didn't capture disaster like that.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:58 | 1051992 darkaeye
darkaeye's picture

I'm about as emotionally crusty as an old hermit can get, but that pic reduced me to blubbering tears.

Along with sympathy, you have to really admire the Japanese people.  No looting, no rioting, but an entire culture pulling together, helping each other, staying strong and organized.

Sincere admiration and best wishes for recovery to all affected.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:32 | 1052392 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

On the plus side, they have plenty of firewood to burn for warmth...  also thought it was odd the distress signal was written in english...  best of luck to em.  I honestly think they'll be as resilient as humans can be...  I fully expect them to endure...  and rather well.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 19:58 | 1052692 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

SOS is international symbol of distress.

"HELP" is probably also universally/internationally understood, and I figure people in their situation would be calling out to whomever happened to be passing by.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:46 | 1051628 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Hawai gonna dissapear, sonner or later....Like Dubai Islands...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:17 | 1051761 sagerxx
sagerxx's picture

Well, except for the portions that are thousands of feet above sea level.  

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:29 | 1051820 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Sure!  At one time Kawaii was bigger than the Big Island is today....~4 million years ago.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:42 | 1051914 flattrader
flattrader's picture

I head on network news earlier that the the main Japanese island moved 8 ft. +/- to the east.

The reporter also claimed it dropped two feet. THAT'S A LOT!!!

[If that were true, it seems large portions of the coast would be underwater--including areas NOT affected by the tsunami.

I can't find any confirmation of the two foot drop.

Has anyone seen anything?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:00 | 1051994 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Yes, Japan is 13 feet closer to the US now, the axis of the Earth shifted 6.5 inches, and subsided 2 feet, new coast line bitchez!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:05 | 1052037 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Thanks much.

>>>The world's fifth-largest, 8.9 magnitude quake was caused when the Pacific tectonic plate dove under the North American plate, which shifted Eastern Japan towards North America by about 13 feet (see NASA's before and after photos at right). The quake also shifted the earth's axis by 6.5 inches, shortened the day by 1.6 microseconds, and sank Japan downward by about two feet. As Japan's eastern coastline sunk, the tsunami's waves rolled in.<<<

I'm surprised the flooding isn't worse.


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 20:04 | 1052713 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

That explains that rolling blanket of death that would not be stopped as it literally consumed the countryside.  It just seemed to me like gravity was causing the water to wash over the land, as if it had shifted in elevation.  Not sure if that's geologically how it happened but it makes sense to me.  That water just would not be stopped.  Something was forcing it onward.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:36 | 1052159 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Maybe they'll lower airfares to the U.S. a bit.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:48 | 1051632 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Dammit Tyler. If you keep this up Trav7777 will start calling you hysterical. You don't want to carry that burden now do you? :>)

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:58 | 1051689 trav7777
trav7777's picture

if the shoe fits.

Have some balls if you want to call me out

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:30 | 1051789 Bob
Bob's picture

Great punch line--you are a natural comic genius right there! 

Hey, it's gotta suck giving up nuclear, but your upside is that folks are gonna get a whole lot more serious about the reality of peak oil without it, imo. 

How are you viewing it, trav?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:41 | 1051910 trav7777
trav7777's picture

we're not giving up nuclear because we can't.

as far as peak oil, I don't expect most people to grasp it...nothing can or will change that.

If we give up nuclear then people will just find some boogeyman to blame for the more rapid slide down, and CD will post another 10,000 word diatribe on...something.

I just marvel at the perspicacity of the HINDsight of so many people who had no foresight whatsoever and how their "thoughts" slosh back and forth in their head so uncontrollably, forming their own tsunamis.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:50 | 1051955 Bob
Bob's picture

I think you have to give up nuclear.  It's socially toxic . . . ain't gonna happen in this ripening era of distrust.  Even Gov Walker, Uncle Warren and Briilliant Bill Gates working as a team couldn't revive this corpse. 

I'm wondering what your alternative vision is going to be.  You're a dead cold serious energy guy. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:54 | 1051978 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

How about solar with Leo?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:31 | 1052115 Bob
Bob's picture

Well, we have the first new engine design to reach the market in the past 30 years coming online in the next few months (Navistar):

It's really a new engine and it is moving in.  I suppose it will also run on Nat Gas. 

Solar cells and wind power as meaningful contributors to the consumer load are at least 10 years out, even with a Manhatten Project approach. 

Damn, it's looking like coal.  Nattie a dark horse second. 

Coal men must be partying like it's 1799. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:09 | 1052312 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Coal... the great leap backwards...

If I told you that we could run the US on wood, you would call me a loon.

Good god, for all intents and purposes we are mining wood

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:30 | 1052382 Bob
Bob's picture

WTF is the problem with the nerds rolling out tha dilithium crystals, anyway? 

Maybe what Hawkings needs most is a good wedgie with a swirlie chaser. 

No more lap dances for that guy until he produces. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:03 | 1052028 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  Well... to put it bluntly, we just got fucked. Nuclear was going to be a viable bridge till CSP could ramp up. The answer will no doubt be to furiously continue our experiment in terraforming Earth into Venus.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:19 | 1052101 trav7777
trav7777's picture

There is no choice in the matter.  Either deal with lights off or deal with nuclear power.  Even in no-nukes USA we get 20% of our power from this's huge.

Perhaps this will be a catalyst for finally embracing PBMR instead of lightwater reactors.

but if anyone thinks coal or NG for capacity growth going forward is

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:49 | 1052224 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

If by anyone you are referring to a majority here or a majority of people I know that are at least aware that electricity isn't delivered by the fairae people, then the answer is,  sadly no.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:17 | 1052094 trav7777
trav7777's picture

eh...socially toxic meets have no choice.  That is how I see it.

I think that within days, the hysteria will die down and lots of ZHers are going to be going "now wtf do I do with all this canned ham and KI?!?!?!"

There is no logical outcome in which nuclear goes away simply because there isn't any alternative.  There just isn't and we would be wise to make peace with that.

As for other visions...what, you want me to dream something up?  I like unicorns.  As for the real world, nuclear is IT.  There are alternative plant technologies like PBMR that have far fewer drawbacks, but the emphasis will be that FUD1 was a 40 year old design about to be decommissioned and all that.  And, it was.  If they can avoid catastrophic core ejection, they will rightly say, look, we got hit by an apocalypse Act of God here and we still pulled it out, nobody got killed, nothing severe happened.  That demonstrates the safety of this technology.

If we were to go the oil/gas route, that is going to collide head on into the export land model with a very dull thud.

The real problem is that idiots with agendas like the various "experts" cited around here are giving out statements to further their own goals.  And morons who can't tell the truth from fiction don't know what to believe and so they latch onto whatever makes them feel more self-righteous.

There is NO WAY that wind power and greentech gets us's simply not feasible at present.  Those who say otherwise are LIARS.

The real problem is that if you sat these people down in a room, they can think of NO technology which meets their criteria; they literally demand unicorns.  They are not in the solution game, they are in the complain and bitch game.  And they expect their tantrums to be met with candy like worked when they were 4 years old.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:27 | 1052379 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

If we were to go the oil/gas route, that is going to collide head on into the export land model with a very dull thud.

I don't think it will be dull, and it will likely appear to be a thud from any Martian observers that might be out there....

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:01 | 1052283 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i'm of course a big fan of "new words" so when i heard the term "pre-shock" from the magnitude 7 that hit "just prior to the 9" i took note.  there's "always room for something new."  and there you have it !  "pre-shock"! kind of like "pre-crime" i imagine--save for the fact "it's just an act of nature" and "has nothing to do with our actions as human beings."

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:29 | 1051823 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You're doing a great job with your manical "I'm just trying to save you assholes from yourselves" outbursts Trav. You're ALL CAPS screaming on other threads are particularly soothing to us insane plebs. You don't need any help from me.

And exactly how does one call someone out in an anonymous comment section of an anonymous blog? Is it pistols at ten paces or maybe just a good old fashioned pissing contest? If that's the case I concede defeat to your bloody urine stream. BTW you might want to get that looked at.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:35 | 1051879 trav7777
trav7777's picture

nice passive-aggressive, douchebag.

Look, man, I know that you enjoy all your little attention around here and you play to your crowd, but get a grip on yourself already.

If you want to respond to ME when I say you are hysterical, then respond to ME, don't be a bitch and try your girlish bullshit triangulation with "tyler."

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:12 | 1052078 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You my dear Trav are just a school yard bully who helpfully informs your next victim that all your doing in educating him just before you beat the shit out of him. For you ZH is your own personal wet dream where you can run amok and say what you please to whomever you please and whenever it suits your mood. All in the name of fixing everything that you claim is wrong in the world while straightening out all those idiots you must reluctantly tolerate.

You don't suffer fools well and you always get to decide who's the fool. Very convenient Trav. There is no doubt that you are an intelligent person. You're also a prick, opinionated, obnoxious and socially inept. Which explains your constant bullying tactics. What ever floats your boat Trav. I know your type well and most everyone else on ZH does as well. Try being a bit more tolerant, add the words might, could and maybe to your vocabulary and who knows, you might just be voted most improved asshole on ZH this month.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:23 | 1052112 PhD
PhD's picture

please dont feed it!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:26 | 1052125 trav7777
trav7777's picture

whatsamatter, man, can't stand getting called on your BS? 

Whine some more for me, ok?  I get a kick out of it.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:06 | 1052296 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Naw... I like Trav to a point... He makes me seem so reasonable and empathetic...

But seriously, he doesn't suffer fools, he calls out people on opinions when there are facts instead. So he doesn't have charm, in the grand scheme of things here at the Hedge, he is no more offensive than a number of posters. This is fight club after all...

FWIW, I have yet to catch him call out a fool where it was not merited. I can assure you that if he missteps, he will be called out.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:34 | 1052149 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

Whose bitch is Trav?  Hows he look in drag?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:50 | 1051639 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Full retard mode in market. Stocks come back even though news from middle east is much worse and oil is surging back.

Still no word from apple on how many shitpads they sold.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:01 | 1052022 Roger Knights
Roger Knights's picture

"Full retard mode in market. Stocks come back..."

The dollar was down vs. the Euro. When the dollar drops stocks tend to rise--that's the recent pattern.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:50 | 1051645 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Look at the following table:

Mega-thrusts are well recorded over the past 500 years  even without precise measurement. Between written accounts and geological fingerprints they are clearly identifiable. By my count  5 of the 24 most intense recorded quakes have been in the last 7 years. Going forward, these are very poor odds in my opinion.

The region I am most concerned over is Cascadia where not only are things "overdue", the Pacific plate is involved.  California is prone to slip-strike, powerful, but not like the mega-thrusts from a subduction zone.. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:00 | 1051691 trav7777
trav7777's picture

but...but...SATURN AND JUPITER and the MAYANS

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:10 | 1051736 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Don't laugh... there is evidence of correlations between solar CMEs and quake activity.

As for astrology, I think it is more a case of Aries entering Uranus.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:49 | 1051946 flattrader
flattrader's picture


re: CME and quake activity.

Go to and sign up for solar flare email alerts.

This solar cycle suddenly got active within the past month or so.

Previously, they were expecting it to be on the "quiet" side.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:51 | 1051959 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I'm me a heads up for Northern lights...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:04 | 1052045 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Been watching this guy lately, he's getting pretty good.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:12 | 1052072 davepowers
davepowers's picture

This fellow agrees with you, albeit with more of a Uranus leaving Pisces spin.

I wasn't aware uranium was named for Uranus.

Amazing how Uranus gets around.




Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:39 | 1052172 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Who was your anus named after?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:05 | 1051715 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Nice link...

The March 2005 Sumatran quake at 8.6 certainly smells like an aftershock of the 9.1 in Dec 2004....fucking scary when an 8.6 is the aftershock

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:51 | 1051655 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Colloidal Silver Iodide bitchez!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:53 | 1051661 TWORIVER
TWORIVER's picture
Headlines crossing saying that Tokyo Electric has started pumping water into Daiichi Number 2 reactor  
Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:57 | 1051677 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Didn't see if anyone posted this earlier: before and after tsunami sat pics -- scroll you mouse across the pics:

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:57 | 1051679 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

I'm going with the pac northwest for the next major quake, the last 7.5+ quakes were back in 1915 and 1906 (sf quake).

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:58 | 1051682 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture



Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:57 | 1051685 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The JPL by now would likely have LOTS of data re number and intensities of aftershocks after major earthquakes, even taking into account local geology, etc.

I have seen stories about a few aftershocks a Richter 1 or 2 below the main shock almost always happens.  Does in Peru anyway.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:03 | 1051712 TWORIVER
TWORIVER's picture
Reports of 4.1 magnitude earthquake in Tokyo crossing the wires  
Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:08 | 1051725 toros
toros's picture

projected fallout map

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:25 | 1051799 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

map is bogus likely created by a Huffpo superuser

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:05 | 1052042 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Are you the only person left on the planet who doesn't know that this is a fake, or are you spreading fake shit around on purpose?


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:09 | 1051735 kreso
kreso's picture

No. It doesn't guarantee, and with more than 400 aftershocks, the chance of another scale 8 earthquake  should be smaller and smaller with each new aftershock.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:12 | 1051743 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Correct, but see my comment on the 2 recent Sumatran quakes...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:12 | 1051747 Ancona
Ancona's picture

The last thing Japan needs is a mag 8 quake and the associated tsunami. I would think that is a near guarantee of complete oblivion at the nuke plant.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:23 | 1051776 foxman
foxman's picture

If this information is not enough to dispel the theory (myth?) of plate tectonics, what is?

“While a few large earthquakes will occur soon after the last one, most will occur at much longer times, typically years, after the last one.”

Translation: we really have no idea when the next one will occur or how big it will be.

"Predicting earthquakes with precision eludes scientists, who until recently lacked data to improve forecasts."

These so called "new data" are nothing more than the earthquakes that happened where the old "scientific data" said they could not as shown here:

“Before 2004, most geophysicists taught that only limited parts of the Ring of Fire could be capable of generating really giant earthquakes,” Antonio Piersanti, head researcher of the Rome-based Italian Institute of Geology and Vulcanology, said in an e-mailed statement. “After the Sumatra event and especially after this last event maybe we should seriously consider the possibility that any part of the Ring of Fire could generate a 9-plus earthquake,” Piersanti said.

haha, totally laughable.  Giant earthquakes can now occur ANYWHERE in the Ring of Fire because they recently did!  We call this science?

Plate Tectonics has only been around since it was "discovered" in the 1960s.  Like many scientific theories, if it hangs around long enough, it will eventually be accepted as fact, even as other theories come along that do a better job of explaning things.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:29 | 1051815 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I am curious...what the fuck was the point of this posting? If it was to parade your ignorance, it was a flying success...

Let me guess, your alternative theory is found in the first chapter of an old codex...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:29 | 1051827 theopco
theopco's picture


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:43 | 1052190 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

My grandmother always told me that thunder was caused by God bowling. Could she have been lying?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:40 | 1051896 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I used to hang out with the Geophysicists in my earlier grad student days on the Canadian west coast....  

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:24 | 1051796 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Speaking of Los Angeles...or not.  Last night on NatGeo

The segment on theNew Madrid Fault (Memphis) was interesting.

The segment on Cascadia (Seattle, Portland) was downright scary.

Short Starbucks?




Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:28 | 1051809 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:35 | 1051870 The Count
The Count's picture


Ummm, sorry to bring this up, but did everybody forget that California is due a big one? And after Chile, Haiti and now Japan I would say the probability has risen dramatically.



Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:56 | 1051985 samsara
samsara's picture

Watch California turn into an Island next week or so...


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:25 | 1052122 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Arizona bay :-)

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 19:00 | 1052485 kinetik
kinetik's picture

+1 RIP Mr Hicks

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:43 | 1052200 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

California is already an island.... in the mind, so to speak.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:31 | 1052388 Rainman
Rainman's picture

....gots some great looking beeches at least.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:53 | 1051963 AAPL_Short
AAPL_Short's picture

Help me out here, please. While the radiation levels in Fukushima and Miyagi are blocked out, this site is showing that in the nearby Ibaraki district, the levels were a while ago at about 5000 nGy/h, now at 3000 nGy/h. Other places show the normal range, which I believe is some 50 nGy/h. What does this mean from health perspective, if anything?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:12 | 1052082 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Dude, a number of us have been noting it for a while. That being said, nice links...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:31 | 1052148 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Juan D. Fukka plate gonna bitchslap those azzez lol

I been talkin about this one since 20 years ago; relatively nobody knows about this seismic zone.  Could get a major temblor AND a Rainier blowup outta this one.

St. Helens is a cool place to visit...even 30 years later, the shit looks like the surface of the moon in most places.  Nature is phenomenally powerful.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:58 | 1052265 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Indeed trav.  Folks have trouble appreciating that Crater Lake was once a Mt. Ranier.  I have lived in the Puyallup river basin and on the Oregon coast, know the deal

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:53 | 1052233 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture
Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:03 | 1052235 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Thanks, and ya, I know.  I was just being facetious, especially to those who say there can be no such thing as an earthquake educed mega trans-pacific tsunami ... While illuminating the interconnectedness of the Pacific rim geologically.

For those folks that refuse to believe in the idea of trans-pacific tsunami causing appreciable damage

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:24 | 1052367 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Tell that to my nominee for the 2011 Darwin award, the idiot in Crescent City.

By tell, I was speaking metaphorically...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:05 | 1052018 cbaba
cbaba's picture

This information is NOT correct.

There are so many wrong information in the Internet and this is one of them.

I have studied Earthquake Engineering in Japan. We engineers use another scale to measure , its called Gal.

1000 gal= 1g( Ground acceleration). Thats what the accelerometers measure .

I don't know the exact measured gal values in this biggest earthquake, it should be close to 1000 gals.

aftershocks always come but subside and decrease in gal , never increase . i.e. if it was max 1000 gals  then it drops exponentially like 300 gal, 100 gal, 50 gal etc..

There might be new tsunami's but it will be very small and all Japanese coast has few feet high tsunami walls, it will be stopped by these walls and will not be effective.


The biggest Problem now is not the earthquake,

its a possible meltdown and Nuclear disaster, Tokyo is 150 miles away from epicenter and there are more than 20 Million people living in Tokyo area alone.




Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:06 | 1052049 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

Correct me if i'm wrong. The nukes could easily withstand a 9.0 quake and could also withstand a tsunami.  What are the odds that two natural disasters could occur within minutes of each other?  Are these the similar odds that the US economy could survive massive money creation and a deep recession/depression...provided they don't occur simultaneously?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:41 | 1052429 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 19:36 | 1052606 granolageek
granolageek's picture

And just what do you think causes tsunamis?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 19:41 | 1052630 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

that was my attempt at sarcasm

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 20:00 | 1052699 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

when in doubt, use the /sarc flag....


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 22:43 | 1053411 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Yeah, and take your own advice while you're at it.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:56 | 1052256 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Da nice folks at Caltech don't start talking before the brain is engaged. Howievers,  when they say something, you have to hear and see it all, or the news report won't work.  No soudbytes or you'll miss it.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:56 | 1052257 MarkCaplan
MarkCaplan's picture

Predicting the future correctly will forever be impossible.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!